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Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, November 21, 2002
The standard way of ranking players is by fantasy points. Or maybe points per game. This week I'm going to take a look at a couple of alternative ways of producing a set of rankings. Several of my notebooks have dealt with the issue of matchups. In particular, I dug into some data and determined that matchups are an important consideration for QBs, a mildly important consideration for RBs, and worth virtually no consideration at all for TEs and WRs. Well, let me amend that. Looking only at a defense's previous stats against WRs will tell you almost nothing about how a certain WR will perform against them in the future. I've said this before, but it bears repeating: it's not that matchups aren't important. Matchups are important for fantasy players at every position. The problem is that we can't tell with much certainty by looking at stats what the good matchups are. Defenses that have shut down WRs for the first 11 weeks of the season aren't a particularly good bet to shut down WRs for the last 6. Defenses can turn from good to bad (and vice versa) in a hurry. Tampa Bay, for instance, has shut down WRs bigtime so far this season. That doesn't mean they're going to continue to do so. But it does mean that the WRs who have done well against them (Torry Holt and Joe Horn) accomplished something impressive. That's why I think the best use for matchup data is looking backward, not forward. In other words, I don't think it's a good idea to look ahead at a particular player's schedule and pick up players who are perceived to have a weak upcoming schedule. A better idea, in my opinion, is to look back at a player's schedule and try to identify players who have had a strong past schedule. The idea is: given two guys with similar current statistics, the guy who had the tougher past schedule actually played better. He looks the same on the stat sheet, but what he accomplished was more impressive. So what I've done is to put together an adjusted fantasy points per game average for every WR in the league. To see an example of how this works, let's consider Torry Holt. In week one, Holt's Rams played the Broncos and Holt racked up 9.1 fantasy points. Now, so far this season, the Broncos have been allowing WR to score about 23.5 percent fewer points than an average team. So we add 23.5 percent to Holt's 9.1, which yields about 11.2. Even though the stat sheet says 9.1, you might say that 11.2 is a "truer" estimate of what Holt actually accomplished on that day. We then repeat the process for each of his games, and compute his adjusted fantasy points per game aveage. It turns out to be 9.9 points per game. His unadjusted average is 9.3 per game. In terms of raw average, Torry is the 24th-ranked WR in the league. But in terms of schedule-adjusted average, he ranks 16th, so the schedule adjustment makes a fairly substantial difference in his case. Here are the top 30 WRs in terms of adjusted average. Also included in the table is their rank in terms of raw average and the difference between the two ranks:
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
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1. Marvin Harrison 16.7 16.0 1 0
2. Hines Ward 15.3 15.9 2 0
3. Terrell Owens 14.8 15.1 3 0
4. Joe Horn 13.1 12.7 6 2
5. Eric Moulds 12.6 12.5 7 2
6. Curtis Conway 12.3 12.7 5 -1
7. Peerless Price 11.9 12.9 4 -3
8. Donald Driver 11.7 12.3 8 0
9. Jerry Rice 11.5 11.7 10 1
10. Plaxico Burress 11.1 11.7 9 -1
11. Randy Moss 10.9 10.3 13 2
12. Isaac Bruce 10.2 10.5 12 0
13. Marty Booker 10.1 11.3 11 -2
14. Jimmy Smith 10.0 9.8 17 3
15. Corey Bradford 10.0 9.4 21 6
16. Torry Holt 9.9 9.3 24 8
17. Derrick Mason 9.9 10.1 14 -3
18. Chad Johnson 9.9 10.0 15 -3
19. Rod Gardner 9.5 9.1 25 6
20. James Thrash 9.5 9.4 20 0
21. Jerry Porter 9.5 9.8 16 -5
22. Amani Toomer 9.2 8.9 26 4
23. Joey Galloway 9.2 8.8 27 4
24. David Patten 9.2 9.5 19 -5
25. Dennis Northcutt 9.1 9.3 23 -2
26. Rod Smith 8.7 8.4 29 3
27. Keyshawn Johnson 8.4 9.4 22 -5
28. Eddie Kennison 8.3 7.6 33 5
29. David Boston 8.2 7.5 34 5
30. Quincy Morgan 8.1 9.6 18 -12
Interesting to note that, while Holt and Isaac Bruce have, of course, played the same schedule, Holt is getting a bigger boost than is Bruce. The way this method is set up, even if two guys have played the same schedule, the one who has played better against the tougher defenses is the one who'll rank higher. Holt, for instance, has the league's best performance to date for a WR against the Tampa D. Bruce, on the other hand, has his biggest game (by far) deflated a good bit because it was against the weak (against WRs) Charger D. Here are the schedule-adjusted rankings for QBs, RBs, and TEs (minimum 8 games played):
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
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1. Donovan McNabb 26.9 25.8 1 0
2. Aaron Brooks 23.9 22.4 3 1
3. Rich Gannon 21.8 24.0 2 -1
4. Peyton Manning 21.2 20.5 6 2
5. Steve McNair 19.3 18.3 10 5
6. Jeff Garcia 19.2 18.9 9 3
7. Drew Bledsoe 19.1 21.2 5 -2
8. Michael Vick 18.9 20.1 7 -1
9. Tom Brady 18.9 21.5 4 -5
10. Trent Green 18.5 18.1 11 1
11. Tommy Maddox 17.9 17.5 12 1
12. Brett Favre 16.9 19.7 8 -4
13. Brad Johnson 16.6 17.3 13 0
14. Brian Griese 15.6 16.0 15 1
15. Mark Brunell 15.0 14.3 17 2
16. Jake Plummer 14.8 13.2 20 4
17. Tim Couch 14.5 14.9 16 -1
18. Daunte Culpepper 14.4 16.6 14 -4
19. Drew Brees 13.3 13.5 19 0
20. Kerry Collins 13.0 12.3 22 2
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
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1. Priest Holmes 24.2 25.0 1 0
2. Deuce McAllister 20.6 19.1 4 2
3. Marshall Faulk 19.5 20.5 2 -1
4. LaDainian Tomlinson 19.3 20.0 3 -1
5. Ahman Green 17.9 17.8 5 0
6. Ricky Williams 15.8 17.4 6 0
7. Travis Henry 15.8 17.0 7 0
8. Shaun Alexander 15.6 15.5 9 1
9. Charlie Garner 15.4 16.1 8 -1
10. Tiki Barber 15.3 14.7 10 0
11. Jamal Lewis 15.1 14.1 12 1
12. Eddie George 15.0 13.6 13 1
13. Duce Staley 14.3 13.3 16 3
14. Corey Dillon 14.1 13.4 15 1
15. Edgerrin James 13.9 12.4 20 5
16. Fred Taylor 13.7 14.2 11 -5
17. James Stewart 13.5 13.6 14 -3
18. Michael Bennett 12.8 13.2 18 0
19. Clinton Portis 12.4 13.2 17 -2
20. Lamar Smith 12.3 12.9 19 -1
21. Stephen Davis 12.3 12.0 21 0
22. Warrick Dunn 11.9 11.5 23 1
23. Garrison Hearst 11.5 11.2 25 2
24. Anthony Thomas 11.5 11.7 22 -2
25. Marcel Shipp 11.1 10.8 26 1
26. Antowain Smith 10.5 10.6 28 2
27. Moe Williams 10.4 11.3 24 -3
28. Curtis Martin 10.3 10.6 27 -1
29. Jamel White 9.5 9.0 30 1
30. Kevan Barlow 9.1 9.5 29 -1
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
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1. Tony Gonzalez 7.2 8.1 1 0
2. Jeremy Shockey 6.0 5.5 7 5
3. Shannon Sharpe 6.0 8.1 2 -1
4. Todd Heap 5.7 7.0 3 -1
5. Randy McMichael 5.6 6.5 4 -1
6. Billy Miller 5.2 6.3 5 -1
7. Bubba Franks 5.1 5.9 6 -1
8. Ernie Conwell 4.7 4.6 10 2
9. Marcus Pollard 4.3 4.9 9 0
10. John Davis 4.3 4.1 13 3
11. Mikhael Ricks 4.1 4.3 12 1
12. Alge Crumpler 4.0 3.8 15 3
13. Kyle Brady 4.0 4.1 14 1
14. Anthony Becht 4.0 5.1 8 -6
15. Freddie Jones 4.0 3.3 18 3
That's fine and well, you say, but it ignores the fact that Chad Johnson, for instance, is on fire right now. If we want a set of rankings with better predictive value, it might be worthwhile to weight more recent games more heavily. So what I'll do is, in addition to adjusting each game for the quality of opposition faced (as above), I'll also give week 11 games a weight of 11, week 10 games a weight of 10, and so on down to week 1 games, which only receive a weight of 1. When we do that, we get the following set of rankings:
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
--------------------------------------------------
1. Marvin Harrison 17.9 16.0 1 0
2. Terrell Owens 16.0 15.1 3 1
3. Hines Ward 15.8 15.9 2 -1
4. Joe Horn 13.6 12.7 6 2
5. Plaxico Burress 13.0 11.7 9 4
6. Jerry Rice 12.6 11.7 10 4
7. Isaac Bruce 11.7 10.5 12 5
8. Randy Moss 11.6 10.3 13 5
9. Curtis Conway 11.5 12.7 5 -4
10. Chad Johnson 11.3 10.0 15 5
11. Peerless Price 11.3 12.9 4 -7
12. Donald Driver 11.2 12.3 8 -4
13. Eric Moulds 11.2 12.5 7 -6
14. Jimmy Smith 10.8 9.8 17 3
15. Jerry Porter 10.3 9.8 16 1
16. Rod Gardner 10.3 9.1 25 9
17. Derrick Mason 9.8 10.1 14 -3
18. Corey Bradford 9.7 9.4 21 3
19. Keyshawn Johnson 9.6 9.4 22 3
20. Travis Taylor 9.4 7.5 35 15
21. Dennis Northcutt 9.0 9.3 23 2
22. Joey Galloway 8.9 8.8 27 5
23. Laveranues Coles 8.9 8.7 28 5
24. Amani Toomer 8.9 8.9 26 2
25. Marty Booker 8.8 11.3 11 -14
26. Rod Smith 8.8 8.4 29 3
27. Torry Holt 8.8 9.3 24 -3
28. David Patten 8.5 9.5 19 -9
29. Quincy Morgan 8.3 9.6 18 -11
30. Koren Robinson 8.2 6.9 44 14
The effect of this modification is somewhat predictable. Chad Johnson and Travis Taylor move up. So do Isaac Bruce and Randy Moss. Koren Robinson even starts to look like a legitimate WR. Peerless Price, whose last four games have consisted of two pretty good games against very poor Ds and two fairly nonproductive games, takes a nosedive. So does Marty Booker. Whether these rankings are of any more predictive value than standard rankings, I don't know. But they are fun to look at. Here are the QB, RB, and TE lists:
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
--------------------------------------------------
1. Donovan McNabb 26.1 25.8 1 0
2. Aaron Brooks 23.9 22.4 3 1
3. Peyton Manning 22.3 20.5 6 3
4. Rich Gannon 21.9 24.0 2 -2
5. Jeff Garcia 20.0 18.9 9 4
6. Steve McNair 19.3 18.3 10 4
7. Tommy Maddox 19.0 17.5 12 5
8. Michael Vick 18.9 20.1 7 -1
9. Brad Johnson 18.6 17.3 13 4
10. Drew Bledsoe 17.1 21.2 5 -5
11. Tom Brady 16.1 21.5 4 -7
12. Tim Couch 16.1 14.9 16 4
13. Trent Green 16.0 18.1 11 -2
14. Brett Favre 15.2 19.7 8 -6
15. Jake Plummer 14.6 13.2 20 5
16. Mark Brunell 14.6 14.3 17 1
17. Daunte Culpepper 14.6 16.6 14 -3
18. Chad Pennington 14.1 13.8 18 0
19. Drew Brees 13.8 13.5 19 0
20. Brian Griese 13.4 16.0 15 -5
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
--------------------------------------------------
1. Priest Holmes 22.6 25.0 1 0
2. Deuce McAllister 22.0 19.1 4 2
3. Marshall Faulk 19.1 20.5 2 -1
4. LaDainian Tomlinson 19.1 20.0 3 -1
5. Ahman Green 17.8 17.8 5 0
6. Tiki Barber 16.9 14.7 10 4
7. Michael Bennett 15.5 13.2 18 11
8. Travis Henry 15.2 17.0 7 -1
9. Eddie George 15.0 13.6 13 4
10. Corey Dillon 15.0 13.4 15 5
11. Jamal Lewis 15.0 14.1 12 1
12. Shaun Alexander 14.9 15.5 9 -3
13. Ricky Williams 14.9 17.4 6 -7
14. Duce Staley 14.5 13.3 16 2
15. Clinton Portis 14.0 13.2 17 2
16. James Stewart 13.7 13.6 14 -2
17. Charlie Garner 13.5 16.1 8 -9
18. Edgerrin James 13.2 12.4 20 2
19. Curtis Martin 12.3 10.6 27 8
20. Warrick Dunn 12.2 11.5 23 3
21. Fred Taylor 12.1 14.2 11 -10
22. Antowain Smith 11.7 10.6 28 6
23. Anthony Thomas 11.6 11.7 22 -1
24. Garrison Hearst 11.4 11.2 25 1
25. Stephen Davis 11.0 12.0 21 -4
26. Marcel Shipp 10.8 10.8 26 0
27. Lamar Smith 10.8 12.9 19 -8
28. Amos Zereoue 10.7 8.7 32 4
29. Moe Williams 10.7 11.3 24 -5
30. Kevin Faulk 10.0 8.7 31 1
Adjusted Raw raw rank
Name PPG PPG rank diff
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1. Shannon Sharpe 6.0 8.1 2 1
2. Bubba Franks 5.8 5.9 6 4
3. Ernie Conwell 5.8 4.6 10 7
4. Todd Heap 5.5 7.0 3 -1
5. Jeremy Shockey 5.2 5.5 7 2
6. Tony Gonzalez 5.1 8.1 1 -5
7. Kyle Brady 4.6 4.1 14 7
8. Randy McMichael 4.5 6.5 4 -4
9. Billy Miller 4.4 6.3 5 -4
10. Freddie Jones 4.4 3.3 18 8
11. Marcus Pollard 4.2 4.9 9 -2
12. Alge Crumpler 4.1 3.8 15 3
13. Mikhael Ricks 3.9 4.3 12 -1
14. John Davis 3.8 4.1 13 -1
15. Wesley Walls 3.7 3.7 16 1
Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from football-reference.com and the disclaimer applies
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