Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, December 19, 2002


This week's notebook will just be a collection of scattered thoughts.


Eddie George's yards-per-carry: how low can it go? Last year, Eddie's 2.98 YPC average was the lowest since 1970 for a rusher with 300 or more carries. This year, he's sitting at 3.27, which would be the 5th-lowest ever for a rusher with over 300 carries.

Understand, now, I'm not disparaging Eddie as a fantasy RB2 for the rest of this season. Those owners who drafted him in the mid-second round probably aren't bragging about it, but they're not hanging their heads in shame, either. He's only been a mild disappointment for his draft position.

But the question is: how much longer will the Titans continue to give him the ball 300+ times a year? They're already well into uncharted territory here. No back has ever been as bad (in terms of YPC) for as long as Eddie George and held onto a regular job. Not even close. In fact, since 1970, only eight players have been given 150+ carries two years in a row while averaging under 3.5 per carry. Eddie is way over 150 carries and way under 3.5 per carry.

YPC averages under 3.5 are simply not tolerated for extended periods. Eddie is the lone exception in the last 30 years of NFL history.


I've always been a strong critic of week 17 fantasy championships. I had the intention of using this space to write a tidy little piece that could be presented by people who agree with me to people who disagree with me. Unfortunately, it looks like I don't have a very strong case.

I considered all top 10 QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs from 1995-2001 and looked at their fantasy point totals during week 16 and week 17. I had expected to see a significant dropoff from week 16 to week 17, as several studs seem to get limited action during the NFL season's final week. More importantly, I expected to see a lot more goose-eggs in week 17 than in week 17. Here's the final tally:

                -- Avg. FantPt ---     ---- Zeroes -----
                Week 16    Week 17     Week 16   Week 17
--------------------------------------------------------
Top 10 QBs        18.5       16.9         4         4
Top 10 RBs        14.5       13.6         3         5
Top 10 WRs        12.1       11.9         0         1
Top 10 TEs         5.6        5.7        11         9

The averages you see above include everybody, even guys who didn't play at all. Also be aware that I made no effort to remove players who were injured or on bye, so take this for what it is: a quick and imperfect study.

That said, it appears that high-ranking WRs and TEs experience essentially no drop-off at all during week 17. QBs suffer a drop of approximately 9 percent in fantasy points and RBs decline by about 6 percent. Further, the number of flat-out zeroes doesn't seem to be too different in week 17. For the record, the QBs averaged about four fewer passes in week 17 than in week 16, and the RBs averaged two fewer carries in week 17 than in week 16.

So there may be some difference between a week 17 championship game and a week 16 one, but it doesn't appear to be that great. Occasionally, studs will rest. But, as Terrell Owens' owners can tell you, the problem isn't limited to week 17.


In last week's notebook, I searched for indicators of playoff success, and I found four: (1) good record, (2) playing well late in the year, (3) good offense, and (4) good record in close games.

Meanwhile, a message board poster named "Gatorman" recently pointed out that the Patriots have yet to beat a good team this year. That's an interesting observation, and it prompted me to investigate how teams fitting that description have done in the playoffs.

As you might guess, the answer is not a pleasant one for Pats fans.

  • When a team is a favorite and it has more quality wins than its opponent, it wins 94 percent of the time.
  • When a team is an underdog but it has more quality wins than its opponent, it wins 47 percent of the time.

Here, I'm defining a "quality win" as a win over a good team. And I'm defining "good" teams as those that were 10-6 or better. Keep in mind that, overall, favorites win 76 percent of the time and underdogs win 24 percent of the time. Thus, we see above that teams with lots of quality wins have been substantially more successful, as both favorites and underdogs, than other teams.

Note that, if you look at current records and define "good" as 9-5 or better, then the Patriots (0-4) aren't the only team that doesn't come out looking so hot.

Record vs. 9-5 (or better) teams


New Orleans Saints          4- 0
Tennessee Titans            3- 1
Kansas City Chiefs          2- 1
Buffalo Bills               2- 1
Miami Dolphins              2- 1
Minnesota Vikings           2- 2
Cleveland Browns            2- 2
Green Bay Packers           2- 2
Philadelphia Eagles         2- 2
San Diego Chargers          2- 2
Atlanta Falcons             2- 3
New York Jets               1- 2
Jacksonville Jaguars        1- 2
Oakland Raiders             1- 2
Washington Redskins         2- 5
St. Louis Rams              1- 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers        1- 3
Pittsburgh Steelers         1- 3
Dallas Cowboys              1- 3
San Francisco 49ers         1- 3
Indianapolis Colts          1- 3
Denver Broncos              1- 3
Detroit Lions               1- 4
Baltimore Ravens            1- 4
New York Giants             0- 3
Arizona Cardinals           0- 3
New England Patriots        0- 4
Carolina Panthers           0- 4
Seattle Seahawks            0- 4
Houston Texans              0- 4
Chicago Bears               0- 5

For the record, only four Super Bowl champions have had a sub-.500 regular season record against good teams. Interestingly, last season's Patriots (2-3) were one of those teams. So were the 2000 Ravens (1-2). Before that, though, you have to go all the way back to the 1969 Chiefs (1-2) and the 1967 Packers (1-2).


Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from football-reference.com and the disclaimer applies