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Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, September 26, 2002
I'll open with a table of contents, so you can skip to whatever you consider the good stuff (if any):
- Reader mail: a reader wrote in with some interesting thoughts
on last week's column, so I'll discuss them here.
- Same team QB-RB and RB-WR pairs: I promised last week to take a look at this.
- Random notebook entries: just some quick thoughts about the season's first three weeks.
In
last week's column,
I discussed the advisability of having two
starting WRs from the same NFL team. I concluded that doing so
does not introduce any extra risk; quite the opposite, in fact.
A reader named Joseph Lorenc wrote in, however, with a thought that's worth mentioning.
While my study showed that if two receivers
from the same NFL team did well, then using them as a tandem on your
fantasy team is not risky. But there may be a risk on a higher level.
Namely, the chances of them failing to perform well might be tied together.
Here's a study that would determine how much (if any) of a concern
this is:
- Look at all teams who had a pair of top 20 WRs in the
preseason consensus rankings.
- Track each of the two receivers through the season and give him a
"+" if he outperforms expectations and a "-" if he underperforms.
- If we see significantly more "++" and "--" pairs than we see
"+-" and "-+" pairs, then that would say that there is risk, on the
season level, in drafting a
same-team pair.
Frankly, I have no idea how the above study would turn out. But I'd be
interested to find out. I'll add it to the growing list of studies I'd
like to do, but can't because I don't have enough data on preseason
rankings. Fortunately, people like Michael Zangrilli and others
are working to change this.
Anyway, last week I also promised to check on QB-RB pairs and
RB-WR pairs, and that's what I'll do now.
I used the same methodology I used last week, with
one minor exception (which you can read about on the
data page),
so I won't bore you with details. Here's what I found:
- Since 1995, there have been 35 instances where a team's top RB and
top WR both played 16 games and both finished in the top 20 at their
positions. In 32 of those 35 cases, the same-team RB-WR pair
was a more consistent game-to-game than the majority of their comparable
pairs. In most cases, they were overwhelmingly more consistent.
- Since 1995, there have been 22 instances where a team's QB has been
in the top 10 and their top RB has been in the top 20 (again, with both
playing 16 games). In 18 of the 22 cases, the same-team RB-QB pair
was more consistent than the majority of their comparable pairs.
Here are the data sets:
[RB-WR]
[QB-RB]
These two results are stronger than the WR-WR results from last week, and
I also believe they're more applicable. Same-team pairs of top-20 WRs
are not rare, but they're not that common. Elite same-team QB-RB pairs
and RB-WR pairs are all over the place. Further, I think that, since
QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs encompass both the passing and running games
of a team, as opposed to WR-WR pairs (which only involve one aspect of the
offense), they are less risky in the sense we talked about in the opening
paragraphs. For example, if the coaching staff decides to go more
conservative, that hurts your WR, but helps your RB. If a team's top
WR gets injured, that may hurt your QB, but it may help your RB (more
red-zone looks, or more receptions).
So, while I've backtracked a little bit on the strong statements I made
last week about WR-WR pairs, I'm going to make those same strong
statements about QB-RB and WR-RB pairs: do not worry at all about
having a same-NFL-team QB-RB or WR-RB pair. If anything, they will make
your team more, not less, consistent.
Random Notebook Entries
- You knew Donovan McNabb was having a good year, but did you know he has the highest first-three-week fantasy point
total since 1995 (and possibly for awhile before that, but my game-by-game data only goes back to 95)? Here are the
top 10:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Donovan McNabb 2002 3 97
Steve Young 1995 3 95 10
Tom Brady 2002 3 87
Drew Bledsoe 1997 3 86 5
Brett Favre 1996 3 84 1
Donovan McNabb 2001 3 83 5
Brian Griese 2000 3 81 11
Kurt Warner 2001 3 78 2
Brett Favre 2002 3 74
Neil O'Donnell 1997 3 74 16
Priest Holmes is having a similarly "historic" start, but no WR is doing anything special at this point:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Emmitt Smith 1995 3 89 1
Marshall Faulk 2000 3 89 1
Priest Holmes 2002 3 87
Stephen Davis 1999 3 82 4
Ricky Williams 2002 3 71
Marshall Faulk 2001 3 70 1
Terrell Davis 1998 3 68 1
Tiki Barber 2000 3 67 13
LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 3 66 7
Lamar Smith 2002 3 62
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Marvin Harrison 1999 3 78 1
Jerry Rice 1995 3 64 1
Jimmy Smith 2000 3 62 12
Tim Brown 1997 3 58 8
Rod Smith 2001 3 56 4
Irving Fryar 1995 3 49 21
Cris Carter 1997 3 47 4
Keyshawn Johnson 1998 3 46 5
Peerless Price 2002 3 46
Marty Booker 2002 3 46
- Much has been made of the abundance of impressive early-season performances by rookie WRs this year
(this
Jason Wood article of a couple weeks ago discusses the issue nicely, for instance).
It has also not gone unnoticed that the rookie RBs have been terrible. Here is a table showing the total
number of fantasy points scored by all rookie RBs in the first three weeks of each season since 1995 (along with
the top 5 rookie RBs through three weeks):
Total
Year FPT Top 5
-----------------------------------------
2002 131
Clinton Portis 21
T.J. Duckett 13
Jonathan Wells 13
Marcel Shipp 13
Najeh Davenport 12
2001 221
LaDainian Tomlinson 66
Correll Buckhalter 27
Travis Henry 23
Michael Bennett 21
Kevan Barlow 21
2000 162
Mike Anderson 45
Ron Dayne 25
Frank Moreau 13
Thomas Jones 13
Travis Prentice 12
1999 119
Edgerrin James 45
Ricky Williams 12
J.J. Johnson 11
Rob Konrad 10
Sedrick Irvin 10
1998 145
Robert Edwards 42
Fred Taylor 31
Curtis Enis 22
Ahman Green 20
Jon Ritchie 8
1997 177
Tiki Barber 45
Warrick Dunn 41
Jay Graham 21
Antowain Smith 17
Troy Davis 13
1996 218
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 58
Eddie George 33
Stanley Pritchett 22
Ki-Jana Carter 20
Lawrence Phillips 18
1995 187
Terrell Davis 53
Rashaan Salaam 31
Curtis Martin 27
Napoleon Kaufman 21
Rodney Thomas 19
A couple of things to notice here. First, look at the top rookie (through three weeks) of each season and 2002 sticks out
like a sore thumb. This year's top rookie has 21 fantasy points. All the other years have at least one back over 40.
Second, note that the total rookie production was slightly lower in 1999 than it has been in 2002, but there were fewer games being
played then. On a per-game basis, I'm not sure which year is worse.
Here is a brief snapshot of the WR numbers, to see just how anomalous this rookie class has been so far:
1st 3 weeks
tot fant pts
Year by rook WRs
--------------------
2002 216
2001 103
2000 199
1999 114
1998 95
1997 35
1996 107
1995 134
The 2000 crop was actually quite close to this group through three weeks. They (the 2000 crop) did not turn out well, for whatever
that's worth.
Also for what it's worth, I do not in any way believe that this season of great rookie WR production and terrible rookie RB
production
is the beginning of a trend. Time will tell, of course, but good rookie RBs have existed since the dawn of time. And
production by rookie WRs has been steadily declining for the last three decades. I'll need to see a lot more than one year's
worth of data to believe that this is anything but a blip.
- I'm always hesitant to proclaim players to be "undervalued" or "overvalued" because value, to steal a phrase, is in
the eye of the beholder. And I have no idea what your league's beholders of Derrick Mason or Ike Hilliard have to say about it.
But I do believe this: at this point in the year, players with a lot of yards and few TDs are likely to be undervalued.
For instance, Derrick Mason currently sits as the #31 WR in fantasyland. But in terms of total yardage, he ranks 10th. That
differential of 21 is the highest such differential among WRS and, to me, it means that Mason might represent good value right now.
The ability to rack up yards is a much more sustainable skill than the ability to score TDs, which tend to come and go more
sporadically. If your league's Mason owner is getting antsy because his 5th-round pick is only WR 31 right now, see if you can pry
Mason from him. The TDs will come.
With that, here are lists of the WRs and RBs with the biggest differential between their yardage rank and their overall rank.
There's a good chance that some of these guys are undervalued by some of the folks in your league right now.
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Derrick Mason 10 31 21
Darrell Jackson 15 36 21
Ike Hilliard 20 40 20
Antonio Bryant 25 42 17
Isaac Bruce 30 47 17
Keyshawn Johnson 29 46 17
Torry Holt 4 17 13
Amani Toomer 3 14 11
Terry Glenn 24 32 8
Rod Gardner 21 29 8
Antonio Freeman 22 30 8
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Najeh Davenport 39 49 10
Curtis Martin 38 48 10
Ahman Green 8 17 9
Corey Dillon 12 20 8
James Allen 30 38 8
Michael Pittman 18 26 8
Jonathan Wells 36 44 8
T.J. Duckett 35 43 8
Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from football-reference.com and the disclaimer applies
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