Working the Sportsline Automated Draft
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Posted 8/19 by Ken Droz - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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In my first experience in league using CBS Sportsline's automated draft last
season, I learned an extremely valuable lesson about trusting robots. Tipping
back in my cushy office chair, I decided to open my web browser to see how my
pal robot drafter was doing with my wish list, and I was nearly dumped to the
floor when I witnessed firsthand the machine's utter stupidity. As the early
rounds unfolded, my robot drafter was jumping on kickers, tight ends and defenses
in rounds 3-6, with highly esteemed RBs and WRs still on the board, each of
whom I distinctly ranked WAY higher than a lousy kicker.
I couldn't watch. I let the draft finish out before checking back the next
day, all but conceding the season, and was surprised that things turned out
okay. I actually finished the season with the best league record despite the
horrendous draft procedure after learning that the draft robot had failed to
deliver a reasonable draft sequence for any of the teams in my league, simply
because it isn't programmed to draft in a manner that anybody in their right
mind would. Understand the robot and you can better control your draft, and
even exploit its tendencies.
So how does it work, and how can you work it?
FLEX POSITIONS
The first thing to understand is that the robot is programmed to pick starters
first, but ITS idea of starters is not "active players on your roster,"
or "players that will start every week". Actually, it considers your
starters to be "a required player." That distinction is everything,
especially if you use a flex position. Flex positions are permitted in the league
by allowing you to start a certain number of players above the required position
players, RB, WR, or TE (if you must). That means your flex is not considered
a required position, and is not drafted until all required players are filled.
Theoretically, flex players are viewed as backups. If you start the minimum
number of RBs and WRs, your roster is legal, but you have the "option"
to start flex players, if you so choose--a good idea, provided you happen to
have a mental capacity on the better side of a wooden post, or a large stone.
In our league's draft, this meant as a "backup" I got Deuce McAllister
in the 7th round, to start at the flex position, after my six required players
(including TE, DT and K) were drafted. That actually balanced out okay, because
all teams needed to use the first six rounds to fill their required rosters,
and then the robot just went straight down each teams wish list, so Round 7
was dominated by RB2s and great flex options.
THE EARLY ROUNDS
The tumultuous first rounds are where you can capitalize big. Consider this:
In a 10-team league with six required (minimum) starters, one of each RB,
WR, QB, TE, K, DT, and two flex (RB/WR/TE) positions each team is guaranteed
to draft one of their top 10 "required" picks at each position in
the first six rounds.
That means, if you have the last pick in the first round and all or 90% of
the teams ahead of you draft RBs and you are only required to start one RB,
you must NOT draft a RB with your first pick, because whoever is left is only
available to you anyway. Take a receiver, or take a QB, but let the RB go. In
fact, don't even think about setting yourself up to draft him until at least
Round 5, and even then only if you think somebody else understands the bot and
you REALLY hate kickers. If only two or three teams lack a running back, don't
squander an early pick to out-muscle a team for the eighth back of the draft,
when you are already guaranteed no less than #10. You want the best players
at each position, and if you expect the guys you want will be off the board,
arrange your draft to let that position slide until you absolutely have to fill
that spot. Draft a kicker before you have a running back? Yes. You'll have a
better kicker, and again, the running backs remaining are barred from joining
a team that already has one until you've selected yours. Last year I mistakenly
drafted Michael Vick, the last QB taken, two rounds ahead of filling my roster,
and he would have waited for me to take him until the very last moment, because
all teams had filled their QB slots by rating them higher than TEs, Ks and DTs,
and I took Tony Gonzalez during what amounted to the QB round.
EARLY DRAFT PICKS
Make a list of players at each position that runs as long as the required number
to start times the number of teams in your league. If you're required to start
2 RBs in a 12 person league, list the top 24 backs. From the bottom of each
list, estimate a cutoff line for each position, where you see very little difference
in who you would receive. Everybody below that line should be separated to the
tail-end of your early (required) draft picks so that you only get premier guys
at their positions and defer these, admittedly more valuable, starters until
later rounds. Estimate which positions you will draft each round and make sure
you are among the first to breach that position. An early pick in a serpentine
draft means grab your RB with pick #1. Rank your top RBs only down to the position
you draft, and then rank the top half of your choices at each of QB or WR, to
guarantee premier talent in Round 2. Rank only the number of QB and WR you want
until the position of your second pick If you anticipate that with RBs of the
board, one of those positions will compose the lion's share of second picks,
then be sure to put the other position ahead of it. That is to say if WRs are
picked over by the time you make your second pick, you'll have the opportunity
to nab a great QB. If that's the case, put your non-premier WRs way on the back
burner, after TEs DT and K. Always consider what teams are likely to have drafted
by a given round, and if you estimate that most teams have filled that required
position by then, don't set yourself up to draft it until it's your last unfilled
position. Nearly every team will wait until the last required round to take
a kicker. You'll use that round it for a top 10 skill player who would otherwise
have no business remaining on the board, and use the earlier pick to be the
first to draft another position when you might otherwise (logically) follow
the trend set by other teams to secure a quality player. Be sure that you are
always set up to receive guys at the top of their position, even if they are
much less desirable than, say one of the last available running backs, because
valuable players ranked at the end of required starting positions are already
committed to joining your team and unavailable to your opponents.
After the required picks are finished, the robot will pick straight down your
list, so don't put any players that might not go in the early rounds ahead of
guys you would like to take once everyone's required positions are filled. If
you put 10 kickers ahead of your desired #2 running backs, you'll get every
undrafted kicker you ranked there before your flex player or backup RB, so be
careful. Put guys that scrape the bottom of required players at weak positions
deep on your list, probably below the last pick of the draft. If you defer skill
positions, however, you shouldn't have much trouble getting these top guys,
just use caution in ranking too many. Be sure that the TE, DT, Ks ranked to
fill your required slots will definitely all be off the board after each team
has selected at that position so that the top non-required position will be
a star player, when required rosters are filled, especially if you can start
flex players.
LATE ROUNDS
As mentioned above, after required positions are taken, the robot will tick
down your draft list and give you the highest rated players on your list blindly.
In the late rounds, Drop all remaining TE, DT and Ks down below the last pick
of your draft and rank as honestly as you can the players representing the best
value, so that you cannot possibly double up at these less desirable positions.
If you are following the VBD ranking as a guide for this, be aware that there
will be exceptional values at TE, DT and K as the draft progresses. Ignore them.
By using the above trick, slipping a skill position to the end of your required
picks in the early rounds, you should have cemented the opportunity to draft
top 5 players at each of these positions, One stud is all you need. Fill the
remainder of your draft list with only skill players, and accept that you will
be able to get by with a waiver wire replacement for bye weeks, with little
repercussions for maintaining a thin roster here. The key is to move your sleepers
up and don't waste a pick hedging your bets at weak positions which you will
already dominate.
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