| RB Jerome Bettis (Pit) High Side (#17) by Mark
Wimer However, considering his advancing age and growing susceptibility to injuries (and offseason reports that his physical condition is not up to par) I projected Bettis to barely crack 1000 yards rushing (1050) and add a paltry 100 more receiving. That, combined with a projected 10 td's, was enough to put him at #17 in my rankings. Imagine my surprise when it turned out that I was the highball expert! Bettis faces many barriers: completing the rehabilitation from his groin injury and then a struggle to get back into shape, combined with competition for carries from Amos Zereoue, Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala, and scrambling quarterback Kordell Stewart. Nevertheless, I believe that Bettis is a strong enough back (coupled with his vast experience) to generate the modest estimate of approximately 35-40% of the Steelers' total rushing yardage in 2002. Low Side (#29) by Clayton Gray Before last season, Jerome Bettis rarely missed a start. Yet he always seemed to be nursing some sort of injury. Nothing earth shattering, but each week he seemed to be nicked with a sprain or a strain or a twinge or tweak. It had (and still does) a lot to do with his running style. The style where he takes his huge body and slams it into the 11 guys that aren't wearing black. While that certainly takes a toll on a defense, it also takes a toll on Bettis (not only carry by carry, but even more so, season by season). Last year, all that punishment (and also the everyday stress of moving his 250+ lbs) caught up with him, and he missed 5 games. I see those five games as a sign of things to come. A running back with Bettis' style of play just does not last forever in the NFL. They simply wear out. Aside from my injury concerns, there are also a few negatives
concerning Bettis' output when he does play. His stats last season: That's a stellar 4.8 ypc (which is 0.8 ypc greater than his prior career average and 1.1 ypc greater than his average in the prior 3 seasons). Are you willing to bank on Bettis continuing at such a high rate per carry? Hopefully not. He's much more likely to sink back down to the 3.8-4.0 ypc. A yard less per carry kind of takes to luster off his yardage totals. Consider that Amos Zereoue should see a good amount of action (not to mention Chris Fuamata-Ma'afala and others), and Bettis will be lucky to average 18-20 carries per game. Getting 3.9 ypc and 19 carries per game amounts to 1186 yards. That's IF he plays all 16. How can a 250+ back only score 4 TDs in 11 games? Utterly amazing. However, taking a closer look at Bettis' career TD numbers (9 seasons / 53 TDs) shows a power back that scores just under 6 times a season. Unbelievably low. As most know, Bettis is not much of a threat receiving the ball. In his 6 seasons with the Steelers, he's averaged 15.8 receptions per year (1.07 per game) and hauled in an impressive 2 TD catches. So, in summation, if Jerome Bettis defies all logical thought
and is able to push his buffet-breaking, no-offseason-workout body through
all 16 games, his stat line will be something akin to the following: Good to fair numbers for a 2nd starter in most leagues. Taking out the two to four games I think he'll be unable to
go leaves Bettis with: Definitely not starting RB quality numbers in most leagues. As I believe Bettis will be much closer to the 2nd set of numbers, he's not good enough to be among the top 24 RBs. |