RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)

High Side by David Shick
Rankings are all about confidence and talent. Tomlinson has major talent. This is a given. Despite working behind a weak offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson still managed to shatter San Diego's rookie records for rushing yards (1,236) and touchdowns (10). Add in monster land mover OG Toniu Fonoti and this level of confidence level increases a bit more.

Tomlinson ranked second among all Charger receivers with 59 catches for 367 yards. In fact, Tomlinson wound up with the ball in his hands on more than 40 percent of the team's snaps and his 1,603 total yards from scrimmage, which broke a 36-year old franchise record, represented nearly a third of the team's total offensive output. Some will worry a bit about the QB situation in San Diego. I believe its an added bonus for Tomlinson. If one goes down, the offense most likely won't miss a beat.

Low Side by Jason Wood
Last year, LT proved a lot of critics wrong by putting up 220 fantasy points and finished as the 7th best running back overall and the best rookie by far. However, I believe that a combination of factors will make it nearly impossible for LT to repeat last year's performance and believe that, if anything, there is more downside this year than upside if you risk a first round selection on him.

If you believe that trends are your friend, you'll note that LT fell off the cliff as the season wore on. Last year, his last eight games accounted for just 585 yards rushing and TWO rushing TDs; which lent credence to the notion that LT is uber-talented but unable to sustain the pounding of a full NFL season. After all, that's the reason he fell in the 2000 NFL draft.

Another reason for concern is that Marty Schottenheimer has taken over the reins in San Diego. Say what you will about Marty's winning record as a head coach, but this guy has proven to be disastrous for NFL running backs production. Look no further than last season when Stephen Davis managed just five touchdowns in 355 carries!
Over Marty's 17-year career as an NFL head coach, his teams have been largely ineffective at running the ball. Consider the following points:

  • Over his career, his teams have, on average, been 10th in the league in rushing ATTEMPTS, but only 17th in yards-per-carry.
  • Only 3 times have his teams ranked in the top 10 in both rushing yards and TDs in a season.
  • 10 of 17 teams were BELOW the NFL average for yards per carry, despite being near the top 10 in total carries.

LT isn't getting any help from his supporting cast. Unless Drew Brees bursts onto the scene (which doesn't appear to be the case thus far in training camp), San Diego's passing offense won't help take pressure off of LT this season. While LT is unquestionably talented as a receiving back, as well, it seems reasonable that San Diego may struggle to get into the red zone with its receiving talent and QB situation.

Finally, LT is currently dealing with a sprained ankle, which could continue to hamper him given the heavy workload Schottenheimer usually brings to bear on his running backs. Given LT's history of nagging injuries, this is yet another reason to tread cautiously.