We all go into the draft looking for an advantage over the competition. Most player rankings are based on player projections and most player projections are based to prior year(s) performance. There is no shortage of player projections on the net these days and with several sites offering cheatsheet calculators based on league scoring rules, more and more of the competition will be going into drafts armed with similar information. Since so many of us go into our drafts hoping to avoid busts and land as much top 10 talent as possible, I thought it would be interesting to analyze the makeup of the top 10 to see if any trends stand out. If something happens once it is a fluke, twice it is a coincidence, and three times it is a trend. I ranked the top 10 at each position for each of the past 3 seasons, listed the previous year's ranking and found the following trends (see table at the end of this article for the data):

Before I get into the trends, its important to note that the scoring system used by my league awards 6 pts for all TDs and awards 1 pt per reception which makes pass-catching RBs more valuable.

General findings for all 3 positions (QBs, RBs & WRs):

• 5 of the top ten (50%) will be top ten finishers from the previous year. This is about a strong a trend as you can get. This means that 5 of the top 10 from 2002 will not be top 10 in 2003. This also means that you will have to decide which players are overvalued, especially at RB whose rankings tend to rely more heavily on last year's performance than other positions.



• 2 of the top ten will be #2 caliber starters (ranked 11-24) from the previous year. These are the undervalued players that will be the steals of the draft.



• Every year there are true sleepers, diamonds in the rough or players that took advantage of their opportunity to start and cracked the top 10. Everyone should go into the draft with a list of sleepers to round out their rosters.

Notes on each position

For QBs, each year:

• 5 of the top ten players finished top 10 the previous year.



• 2-3 of the top ten were solid #2 QBs (ranked 11-24) the previous year.



• 2-3 of the top ten finished 25th or lower the previous year...some were busts/injuries...some were sleepers.

Which 5 will slide out of the top 10? A quick look at the expert ranking on this site suggests Bledsoe (ranked 11th), Green (ranked 12th) and Brady are likely candidates (as is Vick with his injury), but that still leaves one more so you have to ask yourself, will Garcia be healthy enough? Will McNair's back hold up? Which 2-3 middle tier QBs will step up this year (Favre? Collins? Hasselbeck? B Johnson) and which 2 busts/injured from '02 or sleepers will crack the top 10 (Warner? Plummer? McNabb?).

For RBs each year:

• On average, only 4 of the top ten players finished top ten the previous year.



• 2 finished ranked 11-24 the previous year



• Each year, at least 1 rookie cracks the top 10.



• 2-4 of the top 10 finally stayed healthy (Hearst, Taylor) or made the most of their opportunity (Ahman Green in 2000, Alexander/Holmes/Antowain Smith in 2001, and Travis Henry in 2002).

It is very difficult to look at the top 10 from 2002 and pick 6 to not make the top 10 in 2003, but the trend strongly indicates that this is exactly what will happen. Many are predicting the return of STUDs like M Faulk and E James to the top 10 and have dropped Garner and Barber out of their top 10s. A quick look at Fred Taylor's history on NFL.com suggest this is an injury year for him so I will be avoiding him in 2003. Will Portis fall victim to the Denver RB curse? Which rookie RB cracks the top 10 in 2003? Onterrio Smith seems to be the popular candidate. Which RBs finally getting their chance will erupt....Candidate?...Mack?

For WRs each year:

• On average, 5 of the top ten were top ten finishers the previous years.



• 4 players stand out as consistent top 10 finishers and consistency is widely considered to be a very valuable commodity when it comes to fantasy WRs: Harrison, Owens, Moss, Horn.



• Other than the 4 players listed above, it appears to be very difficult to predict which 5-6 WRs will finish in the top 10 because so many came from a very low ranked position the previous year. This is one of the reasons that once the top 4 WRs are gone, I usually wait until the later rounds to grab WRs...its just too risky a position to blow an early round pick on. I will let someone else grab guys like Ward and Burress while I stockpile talent at RB and maybe even grab a top TE...then Ill grab some WRs in rounds 5-10 and adjust as the season starts and go to guys emerge.