Who Do I Start Spreadsheet
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Posted 8/26 by Cathy Fazio - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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One of the things that can be the deciding factor in winning games in fantasy
football is the decision of who you start each week. Now every seasoned fantasy
football player knows that one of the cardinal rules in fantasy football is
that you should never ever bench your studs. But sometimes deciding who to plug
into your flex position or who to put in for your studs when they have a bye
week is enough to give you a headache.
I ran into this situation last year. I am in a league that starts two wide
receivers, two running backs and one flex player - either a wide receiver or
a running back. Now I had my four starters that I would start every week - Ricky
Williams, Clinton Portis, Torry Holt and Marty Booker. But I had a hard time
deciding on who to plug into that flex position. I was considering Travis Taylor,
Jerry Porter, Tai Streets, or Anthony Thomas. And sometimes that decision alone
would cost me my game. Now I would read all of the projections, from Footballguys.com
and a variety of sources. I checked out the who to bench and who to start columns.
I would look at the player rankings. So many times though the opinions were
widely varied and different. Invariably I would make the wrong decision and
then find that I should have put in a player I left on the bench. Needless to
say, I began to get tired of this after a couple of weeks of making the wrong
choice. So what I did was to create a spreadsheet that I call the Who Do I Start
Spreadsheet. And I have to say that it really helped to make my decision making
much easier. As well as providing me with an overview look at what those experts
were thinking about the players on my roster and their match-ups for the upcoming
week.
So, if you are like me and have trouble deciding who you are going to start
week in and week out this might be a tool that will help you out. All you need
is a little time, energy, and a simple spreadsheet program to create your own
Who Do I Start Spreadsheet.
Here is what it looks like:
Player |
Month
|
Src 1
|
Src 2
|
Src 3
|
Src 4
|
Src 5
|
Cathy
|
Total
|
Gannon |
194
|
61
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
269
|
Brady |
172
|
49
|
2
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
235
|
Booker |
47
|
16
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
81
|
Holt |
27
|
12
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
57
|
Porter |
35
|
8
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
56
|
Streets |
46
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
60
|
Taylor |
59
|
14
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
85
|
Williams |
47
|
19
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
83
|
Portis |
56
|
26
|
5
|
5
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
104
|
Thomas |
50
|
14
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
3
|
74
|
Pittman |
15
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
2
|
31
|
Jordan |
29
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
40
|
Pollard |
16
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
35
|
McMichael |
10
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
23
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Here's what it means:
The month number is the total fantasy score of each player for the month. I
chose to use a monthly total rather than a year to date total because the monthly
number takes into consideration the fact that a player may be starting to get
more play, or develop more chemistry with his quarterback than he did at the
beginning of the year.
The next 5 columns are all projections and rankings from a variety of sources.
You can put in your favorites and the ones that you have found to be most reliable.
When a projection has been given, I convert it into the score that player would
receive using my scoring system. When it is a simple ranking, I give the top
player at each position a 5 and then go backwards to the last player at the
position receiving a 1. When match-ups are being evaluated, I give a great matchup
a 5, a good matchup a 4 a neutral matchup a 3, a poor matchup a 2, and a terrible
matchup a 1.
The Cathy column is you guessed it - where I put my own personal opinion into
play. I have been doing this a while and value my own opinion in these matters
so I have incorporated it into the spreadsheet.
The final column is the total - and this is what helps my decision week. The
week that I have highlighted above I would have chosen to start Travis Taylor
in the flex position. Even though Torry Holt had a lower number than some of
the other wide receivers, I still left him in because of the don't bench your
studs rule. I also used this to help me decide which of my tight ends to start
as well and started Marcus Pollard this particular week. Now, you will notice
that I have my quarterbacks in there, but that was just for own curiosity's
sake. This was later in the season and I was starting Gannon on a weekly basis.
Now you are probably wondering how accurate of an indicator this was. Did it
correctly predict who I should have started?
Here are the results:
Player |
Prediction
|
Action
|
Actual Pts
|
Gannon |
260
|
Start
|
51
|
Brady |
235
|
Bench
|
26
|
Booker |
81
|
Start
|
8
|
Holt |
57
|
Bench (stud theory)
|
10
|
Porter |
56
|
Bench
|
3
|
Streets |
60
|
Bench
|
12
|
Taylor |
85
|
Start
|
11
|
Williams |
83
|
Start
|
38
|
Portis |
104
|
Start
|
31
|
Thomas |
74
|
Bench
|
16
|
Pittman |
31
|
Bench
|
8
|
Jordan |
40
|
Bench
|
4
|
Pollard |
35
|
Start
|
7
|
McMichael |
23
|
Bench
|
2
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Working from the Who Should I Start Spreadsheet with the don't bench my studs
rule my combined fantasy score was 156. Working from strictly from the Who Should
I Start Spreadsheet without taking into consideration my stud rule, my score
would have been 162. If I had played my best performers for the week my combined
fantasy score would have been 166. Well, it was not a 100% accurate prediction
of who I should have started. Though it did help to steer me in the right direction.
Looking at this statistically the one area that it did help me was to avoid
players who really underperformed and I was considering starting - such as McMichael
and Porter.
Keep in mind that this was a one-week snapshot. I did not keep any statistical
data last year as to the overall effectiveness of the spreadsheet. But that
is something that I do plan on doing this coming year. I do know and can say
that overall it greatly aided in my determining who to start. Also, keep in
mind that I would not take this one-week snapshot to advocate that you should
bench your studs in favor of other talent on your bench.
Another benefit to developing and using a tool like this is that it can help
you to pinpoint and identify your team's strengths and weaknesses from week
to week. This can be extremely valuable for you as you play the waiver wire
and work on making trades with others in your league.
So as I said, if you have the time, energy and a simple spreadsheet program
and you are struggling with the decision of who to start, give it a shot. Pick
your favorite sources of fantasy information and those prognosticators whose
opinions you value. Plug them in and see how it works. Just being able to take
an overall look at what others are predicting and how they are ranking the players
on your roster can be a valuable tool throughout the upcoming season.
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