|
Week 10 |
|
2002
Forecaster record to date:� 76 wins
against 54 losses. This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not
correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website. SUNDAY, October 27th BYE WEEK:
�Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas, Tampa Bay� Detroit Lions 3-5 at Green Bay Packers 7-1
Game Forecast Ahman Green is on fire, Brett Favre
continues to get the job done every week and the Packers defense has roared to
life after a very sluggish start to the season.� Right now the Packers have to be considered one of the top teams
in the NFC along with the Philadelphia Eagles and possible the San Francisco
49ers or New Orleans Saints.� Favre was
wonderful against the Dolphins on Monday Night considering his knee was obviously
bugging him at times during the game.�
Ahman Green was the curse of fantasy owners earlier in the season when
he couldn�t find the end zone but his five scores during the past two football
games has catapulted him back into the Stud Running back territory.� The Lions are a surprising 3-5 on the
season and are an impressive 3-1 at home.�
However the team has been awful on the road and has yet to win a game as
a visitor this year.� The Lions will
find it very difficult to move the ball on a defensive unit that has become one
of the strongest in the NFL.�� The Lions
only chance for a win this week will be to run the ball with James Stewart at
least thirty times in the game and to keep the ball away from the Packers
offense.� That is an unlikely scenario
to say the least. Must Starts: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Donald
Driver, Bubba Franks Possible Starts: Terry Glenn Only in a Pinch: Joey Harrington, A.Z.
Hakim, Bill Schroeder, Javon Walker, Najeh Davenport, James Stewart Fantasy related Injuries � James Stewart, Mikhael Ricks, Germane Crowell �
questionable Final Thoughts:� The Packers will continue their roll.� Ahman Green will have a good week and the Packers will cruise to an easy victory. Predicted
Score: Lions 14 at Packers 31 Houston Texans 2-6 at Tennessee Titans 4-4
Game Forecast The
Titans looked out of the playoff race only three short weeks ago.� Eddie George looked slow and the defense
looked incapable of stopping anybody from marching up and down the field.� However in those past few weeks, the Titans
have rediscovered their �A-Game� and are back atop the AFC South division.� Eddie George has been running for almost 5
yards per carry the last two weeks although he hasn�t scored a touchdown in that
time.� Steve McNair has thrown 4 touchdown
passes and 0 interceptions during that time and is making all the right
decisions on the football field.� He is
one pace for over 3500 passing yards this year but his rushing totals are down
quite a bit which is hurting his fantasy value a little.� He is still the 11th ranked
fantasy quarterback even with his lack of rushing yardage this year.� He is questionable this week with a bad toe
but McNair usually shows up despite these painful injuries he often suffers
through.� Derrick Mason is creeping back
towards the top 20 receivers this season despite missing 2 full football games
due to injuries.� He is very essential
to the Titans passing game and the team struggles big time without him in
there. The
Texans have won a couple of games but are in desperate need of more talent on
the offensive side of the ball.� Corey
Bradford has been a decent # 1 receiver for the team but they do not have a
credible second receiver to take the pressure off of him.� He is on pace for ten touchdowns which is
outstanding production on a fantasy squad.�
The only other Texan that makes a credible contribution to the passing
game is tight end Billy Miller who is averaging 45 receiving yards per
game.� The rushing game is
non-existent.� Both James Allen and
Jonathon Wells have struggled to find any running space so far on the
season.� The Texans are in the midst of
a typical expansion season, lots of heart and effort but not enough talent to
win more games than they lose. Must Starts: Steve McNair, Eddie George, Derrick
Mason, Corey Bradford, Billy Miller Fantasy related Injuries � Steve McNair � listed as questionable but will play. Predicted
Score: Texans 14 at Titans 24 San Diego Chargers 6-2 at St. Louis Rams 3-5
Game Forecast Before
last week�s action, the Chargers appeared to be one of the best teams in the
AFC Conference.� Then the Jets flew into
San Diego and laid an ass whooping on the Chargers.� The 44 to 13 defeat was not only a surprise to everyone who
follows the NFL but certainly cast a dark cloud over the playoff chances of San
Diego.� I am not sure what they did during
their week eight bye but it doesn�t appear that practicing hard was high up on
the list.� It may be very difficult for
the Chargers to overcome that loss this week due to the hot play and frantic
attitude of the Rams players.� Marshall
Faulk has regained his ability to dominate on both the football field and in
the fantasy leagues and has the Rams charging hard towards a possible Wild Card
playoff berth.� He does have a test this
week against a strong Chargers defense but he is on such a roll right now that
it is unlikely that anyone will be able to contain him on the field.� Faulk looked almost human during the first
five football games this season but is now the second best fantasy running back
again and is closing fast on current front-runner Priest Holmes.� Don�t be surprised to see Faulk end up the
top ranked running back by season end.�
He is cementing his place in NFL history with his re-emergence this
season. For the
Chargers to surprise the Rams in St Louis this week, both Ladainian Tomlinson
and Curtis Conway will need to have outstanding games.� The true catalyst to the Chargers attack is
the running back who has been super all season and is on pace for almost 1700
yards rushing.� He will need to touch
the ball 25 times in order for the Chargers to have a chance.� The problem for the Chargers is that the
Rams run defense has been decent all season and exceptional the past few games
where they are only giving up 57 rushing yards per contest.� If the Chargers cannot establish the run,
they will not be able to stick with the best 3-5 football team in the NFL. Must Starts: Marshall Faulk, Ladainian
Tomlinson, Torry Holt, Curtis Conway Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted
Score: Chargers 20 at Rams 24 New York Giants 4-4 at Minnesota 2-6
Game Forecast The
Giants pass defense this season has been the best in the entire NFL.� Young cornerbacks Will Allen and Will
Peterson have become the best tandem in the game today and are only second-year
players.� The Giants have a great luxury
of lining up veteran defensive back Jason Sehorn as a nickel back, which is
causing offenses havoc on the football field.�
The Giants only need a little offense to win games each week but too often
this season haven�t gotten it.� Tiki Barber
continues to be the best fantasy player that nobody notices.� He is currently the 11th best fantasy player
and even better in leagues that credit receptions with fantasy points.� Don�t look now but Fat Man, Ron Dayne
has elevated his game to the point where he is averaging over three yards per
carry.� He has put up an outstanding 63
yards rushing in the past two games on only 17 carries.� With him averaging almost four yards per
carry, it appears that anything could be possible in the NFL � (Could the
Bengals win eight games in a row and get into the playoff hunt?� Could Jeff George end up playing for the
Seahawks and become the team MVP? Could Randy Moss actually put the off
the field controversies behind him and simply play hard all sixty minutes of a
football game?).� It truly is a
shame that the Giants don�t simply go with Barber and see what he can do if he
is on the field full time.� Amani Toomer
has been extremely quiet the past few games and is due for a huge week.� I wouldn�t be surprised to see him end up
with 8+ receptions on the day. The
Vikings once powerful passing attack has been terrible the last three
weeks.� Daunte Culpepper has thrown only
1 touchdown during that stretch to go with a brutal 5 interceptions.� He is the 25th ranked passer
during that stretch and is killing fantasy owners everywhere.� He couldn�t be any colder if he was playing
for the Alaska Vikings.� Even his
rushing production has disappeared and his confidence appears completely
shot.� The Good news for the Vikings is
that the rushing attack continues to get stronger and stronger.� Michael Bennett is becoming an actual threat
in the backfield and Moe Williams has scored 4 rushing touchdowns in the last
three games. Must Starts: Randy Moss, Tiki Barber, Kerry
Collins, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey Fantasy related Injuries � Derrick Alexander is out. Predicted
Score: New York Giants 24 at Minnesota 17 Indianapolis Colts 4-4 at Philadelphia Eagles 6-2
Game Forecast The
Colts have completely collapsed and will have a very difficult time pulling
themselves out of this funk they are in.�
Peyton Manning has put up a lot of passing yardage in the last three
games but has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) and that is
always a barometer to how the Colts are doing.�
Even Marvin Harrison has fallen off of his usual pace and is only the
fifteenth ranked receiver over the last few games.� With Edgerrin James hurting, the Colts are having a hard time
finding a rushing attack to take the pressure off of Manning and the defense
has been a major disappointment so far. The Eagles
have one of the best quarterbacks in the game; a strong defense and a rushing
attack that finally looks capable of helping the team reach the Super
Bowl.�� Duce Staley is averaging over
100 yards rushing in the last three games, which means the Eagles are firing on
all cylinders.� The only frustrating
thing about the Eagles to fantasy owners is not knowing which receiver will get
the receptions on a given week which results in frustration to fantasy owners.� Must Starts: Donovan McNabb, Duce Staley, Chad
Lewis, Marvin Harrison, Marcus Pollard Fantasy related Injuries � Edgerrin James � Doubtful; Ricky Williams � Questionable; Predicted Score: Colts 14 at Philadelphia Eagles 28 Atlanta Falcons 5-3 at Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3
Game Forecast Two
teams on fire meet up this weekend in what looks like a fantastic football
game.� Both teams started slowly with
1-3 records but have rebounded with four consecutive wins and look capable of
pulling some post-season magic.� The
Falcons rely on a solid defensive performance every week as well as the talents
of Michael Vick who continues to grow as a football player.� Last week, Vick had his worst game of the
season but the Falcons still won the game which had to give the entire roster
tons of confidence to keep the high level of play going.� With T.J. Duckett likely out again this
weekend, the bulk of the work from the backfield will go to Warrick Dunn once
again.� Dunn has been inconsistent so
far in 2002 but has the capability to erupt with a big game at any time.� The Falcons best receiver has been Brian
Finneran although he is only the 35th ranked receiver on the
season.� The Falcons best chance for
success is to let the creativity of Vick rule the offense and let him roam all
over the field but that will prove difficult against the Steel Curtain who have
become a dominant defense once again after a slow start.� The Falcons have not thrown a touchdown pass
in the last three games and will need to get the receivers into this game early
if they are to have a chance. Tommy
Maddox continues to get the job done each week.� He isn�t flashy, certainly not dangerous running with the ball
and isn�t chiseled in granite but he has a wonderful rapport with his receivers
and has been one of the major reasons the season has turned around for the
better in Pittsburgh.� Amos Zereoue has
been awesome in relief of the injured Jerome Bettis the past couple of weeks
and deserves to be the starter in Pittsburgh.�
The Steelers have already benched Kordell Stewart this season so why not
make it a double shot and park the Bus on the sidelines allowing the
gifted Zereoue a chance to showcase his talents.� Both Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress are having wonderful seasons
and that should continue on into the second half of the season.� Atlanta have played strong defense this year
but will have their work cut out for them in Pittsburgh.� The only strong offenses team they have
faced in the last several weeks of action is the New Orleans Saints back in
week eight.� It isn�t difficult to
contain both the Ravens and the Panthers offensive attacks. Must Starts: Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress,
Michael Vick, Alge Crumpler Fantasy related Injuries � T.J. Duckett � Doubtful; Jerome Bettis - Questionable Predicted Score: Falcons 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 23 New Orleans Saints 6-2 at Carolina Panthers 3-5
Game Forecast The
Saints are coming off of a loss to the Falcons and have had two weeks to think
about it.� Aaron Brooks has been
dynamite in his last two outings, throwing for 446 passing yards and a solid 5
touchdown passes in addition to a rushing touchdown.� However the real catalyst to the Saints fortunes is Deuce
McAllister who continues to impress with great performances week after
week.� The injury problems that plagued
McAllister through college haven�t surfaced and he should continue to be a top
fantasy option each week.� The Saints
defense has been giving up a lot of rushing yardage the last while and that
could hurt them against a Panthers team that needs to run to be effective.� The
Panthers will welcome back Rodney Peete to the starting offense this weekend
with open arms.� The passing attack was
non-existent the last two weeks with Randy Fasini at the helm and having
veteran slinger, Rodney Peete throwing the ball will be a huge boost for the
team.� Lamar Smith has slowed down after
his fast start and it was obvious that teams were cheating up to stop the
rushing attack with little threat coming from the passing game.� Lamar Smith is a capable runner but needs
20+ carries to be effective and the team needs a lead in order to use him to
the best of his ability.� The Panthers
strength is the defense, which is young, quick and tough to score on.�� They haven�t given up a passing touchdown
in the last two games and continue to gather confidence in shutting down the
opposition.� The Saints and their
multiple threats on offense though will be a big test for this young defensive
unit.� If they can slow down the passing
game of the Saints, you could see the Panthers pull off an upset this weekend. Must Starts: Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Deuce
McAllister, Lamar Smith Fantasy related Injuries � Rodney Peete and Steve Smith are now listed as probable Predicted Score: Saints 21 at Carolina Panthers 17 Cincinnati Bengals 1-7 at Baltimore Ravens 3-5
Game Forecast Here is
an interesting stat.� The Ravens have Shut
Out the Bengals each of the last three games against them in
Baltimore.� The Bengals are excited, the
coaching staff is excited, the owner is excited, the sponsors are excited and
the fans are excited because the Bengals (yes, that�s right� the Bengals)
finally won a football game.� Could it
be the Bengals are ready to pull off five or six wins in a row on their way to
a miracle season?� No. The
Ravens haven�t played very well the last two football games and will be out to
rectify that this weekend.� Look for a
monster game from Jamal Lewis, as he will likely touch the ball 25+ times this
Sunday.� The Ravens defense is good at
creating turnovers and that will result in many poor decisions from Jon
Kitna.� It is nice to see young receiver
Travis Taylor finally getting involved in the offense and it could be a solid
second half for him.� The Bengals
defense has been a little better the last couple of games but that was more
from playing a banged up Titans team and the weak offense of the Texans than it
was the Bengals improving.� The Bengals
chance at victory resides in getting the ball to Corey Dillon as many times as
they can.� The Ravens are a little weak
in stopping the run with Ray Lewis out of action and a huge game from Dillon is
possible.� If he touches the ball more
than 25 times, the Bengals could find a way to win this game. Must Starts: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Corey
Dillon Fantasy related Injuries � Chris Redman� -
Doubtful Predicted Score: Bengals 7 at Ravens 21 Washington Redskins 4-4 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3-5
Game Forecast The
Redskins are not the high-flying, explosive offense that coach Steve Spurrier
envisioned when he took over the job but they are a team that is beginning to
play marvelous defensive football and could soon be considered one of the top
defenses in the NFL.� The Redskins are giving
up next to nothing on the ground and they are almost as solid against the pass
and it really puts pressure of their opponents to try and make something
happen.� The Redskins don�t have the
personnel on offense to make an explosive offense tick so they will need to
stay conservative on offense until more playmakers are added.� Stephen Davis is questionable again this
week and will likely be a game time decision once again.� All we can hope for as fantasy owners is
that the Redskins will let us know one way or the other before game time.� If he cannot play, Kenny Watson could have a
solid game against a Jaguars team that is only average in stopping the run. Fred
Taylor hurt his back last week and did nothing against the Giants.� He says he should be ready to go this
weekend but Taylor probably leads the NFL in being listed as probable but
sitting out the action.� For what it is
worth, I believe he will give it a try this weekend but he has a infamously low
pain tolerance and I would be scared to death of starting him this
weekend.� With the Redskins giving up
only 78 yards per game over the last few contests, Stacey Mack running the ball
so effectively last week and the unknown status of Taylor�s back, I would only
start him if I had no other viable options this week. Must Starts: - Jimmy Smith Fantasy related Injuries � Stephen Davis � questionable; Fred Taylor - probable Predicted Score: Redskins 14 at Jaguars 10 Seattle Seahawks 2-6 at Arizona Cardinals 4-4
Game Forecast The
Seahawks are in the midst of another substandard season and the injuries
continue to mount.� Matt Hasselbeck is
not good enough yet to lead the Hawks to a string of victories and injuries to
players such as Trent Dilfer, Darrell Jackson, Chad Brown and Steve Hutchinson
continue to hinder the team.� Shaun
Alexander is averaging less than 3 yards per carry during the last three
football games but does get a lot of touches and that isn�t likely to
change.� Expect at least 20 carries from
him this week and no less than 80 yards rushing. The
Cardinals are a .500 football team but that is a little misleading.� They have won this year with smoke and
mirrors and I am not sure they can continue to win that way.� The running backs are healthy enough now to
contribute and both Thomas Jones and Marcel Shipp could have solid to great
games this week against the woeful Seahawks defense.� At the time I write this article, David Boston appears to be out
for the season with a partial tear of his patella tendon (Stay tuned at
Footballguys.com for all the breaking news on this story.� It is still a rumor at this point � Thursday
morning) and has been a major disappointment all season long.� MarTay Jenkins is out this week as well
which could mean a good game from Frank Sanders or it could mean a huge week
for Freddie Jones. Must Starts: Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones,
Freddie Jones Fantasy related Injuries � Darrell Jackson � Doubtful; MarTay Jenkins � Out; David
Boston � Could be out for the season Predicted Score: Seahawks 14 at Cardinals 16 Kansas City Chiefs 4-4 at San Francisco 49ers 6-2
Game Forecast I am
looking forward to watching this football game.� The Chiefs are an explosive football team and they are coming
into San Francisco off of a bye week.�
The interesting match up in this game is the nearly unstoppable Priest
Holmes going up against a 49ers run defense that hasn�t been that good over the
last few weeks.� If the 49ers cannot
slow him down in this game it could be a huge upset in San Francisco.� The 49ers are much better at stopping the
pass than the run and that could certainly play into the Chiefs hands this week.� There are basically two keys to stopping the
Chiefs, containing Holmes as best you can and not allowing Tony Gonzalez to get
down the field to beat you.� The 49ers
have good team speed on defense that should allow them to effectively cover
Gonzalez as well as have some success slowing down Holmes. The
49ers best bet in this football game is to control the clock by pounding the
effective duo of Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow on the run and to utilize the
short passing game with Terrell Owens and Tai Streets.� The 49ers should have no problems moving the
ball up and down the field and the Chiefs who don�t have the personnel to slow
this offensive juggernaut down.� Look
for a minimum of 30 rushing attempts between Hearst and Barlow and a minimum of
8 receptions for Terrell Owens. Must Starts: Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Trent
Green, Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst, Terrell Owens Fantasy related Injuries � TE Eric Johnson - Questionable Predicted Score: Chiefs 24 at 49ers 34 New England Patriots 4-4 at Chicago Bears 2-6
Game Forecast The
Bears dream season of a year past has decayed into a nightmare the likes of
hasn�t been seen since Freddie stalked those poor teenagers in Nightmare on Elm
Street, part one.� With a demoralizing
six losses in a row, the Bears know there playoff dream for this season is all
but done.� The running attack has been
awful this year although putting all the blame on Anthony Thomas isn�t
fair.� He continues to run as hard as he
did a season ago but he is the type of runner that needs to get up a head of
steam to be effective and the offensive line isn�t allowing that to
happen.� The offense has solid receivers
but the conservative passing attack the team uses doesn�t make the most out of
any of them except Marty Booker who has developed into one of the most
consistent threats in the NFL.� The
Bears have been poor in stopping the pass and that will spell big trouble
against a team that excels in getting the ball downfield to its receivers. The
Patriots had a horrific stretch of games against some of the best teams in the
NFL but got back on track this past week by crushing the Bills in Buffalo.� Tom Brady has slowed down for his pace to
start the season but that was unavoidable as defenses caught on to what the
Patriots were trying to accomplish.�
Despite his problems from week four to seven, Brady is still on pace for
over 4000 yards passing and 38 touchdowns.�
Deion Branch has been invisible after his fast start and has perhaps hit
the rookie wall that is so common in first year players.� However the team still has Troy Brown and
David Patten on their games and it is almost impossible to cover every option
this team has to pass the ball to.�
Christian Fauria and Daniel Graham are a great duo at tight end and have
been productive the last few weeks.�
Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk have been effective in the passing attack
as well with Smith having 4 touchdowns in the last two football games. Must Starts: Tom Brady, Troy Brown, Christian
Fauria, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, Marty Booker Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted Score: Patriots 23 at Bears 21 Miami Dolphins 5-3 at New York Jets 3-5
Game Forecast I was
one of the Dolphin fans that took Jay Fiedler for granted and thought the team
probably wouldn�t miss a beat with Ray Lucas at the helm.� Well, two weeks later I am offering my
deepest and more sincere apologies to Mr. Fiedler and wishing him a full (and
speedy) recovery.� Lucas has looked like
a perplexed rookie quarterback out there on the field although drop passes and
other problems have also plagued him which were not his fault.� With Lucas questionable this week, the job
may fall to Sage Rosenfels who is about as green as they come at the position.� The team has gone as far as talk to Troy Aikman
about a possible comeback although I doubt that will occur.� The Dolphins need to play stifling defense
this weekend and to run Ricky Williams a minimum of 30 times in this game.� This is where Ricky Williams will pay huge
dividends as I expect him to rush for over 150 yards in this game.� An interesting note about the Dolphins last
two games is that the ten turnovers they committed during that period is the
most during a two game stretch for the team since 1967.� Not many teams are going to win football
games by averaging five turnovers per contest. The Jets
have made a nice comeback to the season but they are still only at 3-5 and are
in a huge hole to make the playoffs.�
Chad Pennington has been outstanding in the last three games and has
become a top ten-fantasy quarterback.�
He will find it much more difficult this weekend though against a
Dolphins team that will be determined to make his life difficult.� The Jets will be looking to get Curtis
Martin involved into the offense a great deal.�
His season hasn�t been up to par with the rest of his previous seasons
but Martin is still an important key to this offensive attack.� The Dolphins can be taken advantage of on
the ground and the Jets will look to do just that. Must Starts: Ricky Williams, Curtis Martin,
Randy McMichael, Fantasy related Injuries � Jay Fiedler � Out; Ray Lucas - Questionable Predicted Score: Dolphins 20 at Jets 16 Monday Night
Football
Oakland Raiders 4-4 at Denver Broncos 6-2
Game Forecast Five
weeks ago the Raiders looked like an experienced, mature football team with a
great shot at the Super Bowl.� Now they
look like an old, worn-out football team that will have problems reaching the
playoffs.� What a difference a few short
weeks can make.� Charlie Garner started
out like a league MVP this season but is averaging less than 40 yards rushing per
game during the last three contests and also is down under 4 yards per carry in
that stretch.� It appears that the
offensive success of the Raiders revolves around the ability of Garner to run
the ball effectively.� The Raiders will
likely find it difficult to move the ball on the ground though against the
Broncos who are only giving up 75 yards rushing per contest.� The thing that makes the Broncos so tough on
defense is that they are also capable of stopping the opposition�s passing
attack and are giving up less than one touchdown pass per game on the
season.� Rich Gannon continues to put up
strong numbers on the year but he will be tested this week. The
Broncos are coming off of a bye week and will be very focused against the hated
Raiders and will be looking to drive a nail in the Raiders coffin.� In the competitive AFC Western division,
another loss by the Raiders could spell trouble for the team many expected to
reach the Super Bowl.� The Broncos
feature a balanced attack that is averaging 36 pass attempts per game and 30
rushes.� Clinton Portis has been
explosive each of the last two weeks and has taken over the majority of the
carries for the team.� He is a threat to
score from anywhere on the field and at any time.� He should finish the game with around 90 yards rushing, 30 yards
receiving and a touchdown.� The reason
teams cannot cheat up to stop Portis and the rushing game is because Brian
Griese can make them pay if they attempt it.�
It is hard to believe he was almost benched in week one because he has
had a very successful season to date.�
Look for him to throw for 250 yards on the day and toss a couple of
touchdowns. Must Starts: Brian Griese, Rich Gannon, Clinton
Portis, Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe, Jerry Rice Fantasy related Injuries � Charlie Garner - Questionable Predicted Score: Raiders 20 at Broncos 31 |