Week 12 |
2002
Forecaster record to date:� 96 wins
against 63 losses and 1 tie. This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not
correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website. San Diego Chargers 7-3 at Miami Dolphins 6-4
Game Forecast The Chargers have had a very successful season to date.� Drew Brees hasn�t been brilliant but has put up very solid numbers for a first year starting quarterback and has the team�s confidence.� He will be in tough though this weekend against one of the top pass defenses in the NFL.� The Chargers key to success lies with Ladainian Tomlinson and the ground game.� The Dolphins play reasonably well against the run but can be beaten in the middle by a powerful, straight ahead ground attack and that could play into the Chargers strength. Must Starts: Ricky Williams, Ladainian
Tomlinson, Randy McMichael Fantasy related Injuries � Cris Carter � out; Jay Fiedler - out Predicted
Score: Chargers 17 at Dolphins 19 Minnesota Vikings 3-7 at New England Patriots 5-5
Game Forecast The
Patriots have been very inconsistent all season.� It appears to me that they play at their best when they get Kevin
Faulk involved in the offensive side of the ball and don�t do nearly as well
when he doesn�t get touches on the field.�
The team is making a mistake by not getting the ball into his hands
12-15 times per contest.� He can make
things happen and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, something
that Antowain Smith isn�t known for.�
Faulk reminds me a lot of Tiki Barber and deserves to get more chances
in this offense.� Tom Brady has had a
great season to date but three times in the past five contests has failed to
throw for more than 200 yards.� Teams
now know to play back against this team and force the Patriots to beat them on
the ground.� However the Patriots catch
a break this week with the porous Vikings in town.� The Vikings pass defense is below average and Brady and the boys
will have a field day against them.�
Brady should end up with over 300 passing yards and at least 2
touchdowns. The
Vikings won last week but that is due more to the Packers futility under the
dome than to the Vikings own improvement.�
This is a team that has a lot of talent but hasn�t created the chemistry
and team attitude necessary to become a solid football team.� Offenses featuring players such as Daunte
Culpepper, Randy Moss, Byron Chamberlain and Michael Bennett should be able to
put points up on a consistent basis but they have been anything but consistent
so far.� Culpepper was strong last week
but he will find it difficult to play well in a hostile environment such as New
England.� The most improved player on
the Vikings roster has to be Michael Bennett this season.� He is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, has
almost 1100 yards of total offense and is beginning to resemble a young Robert
Smith on the football field.� He is now
running like a football player who is fast instead of a sprinter who is trying
to masquerade as a football player.� The
Patriots are a tough team to run against though so he�ll likely have a minimal
fantasy impact this weekend. Must Starts: Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Tom
Brady, Troy Brown Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted
Score: Vikings 17 at Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 5-5 at New Orleans Saints 7-3
Game Forecast A few
weeks back it appeared that the Browns were going to have a quarterback
controversy at some point in the future.�
Kelly Holcombe was playing awesome football for the team until he broke
his leg and Tim Couch was struggling to find his game and had the Cleveland
fans giving him the raspberry.� However
in the last three games, Couch has thrown 8 touchdown passes against only 3
interceptions and is completing over 64 % of his passes.� He has the Browns playing well and they have
won three of the last four contests.�
Quincy Morgan and Dennis Northcutt have emerged as receivers and are
teaming up with Kevin Johnson to give the Browns one of the top receiver trios
in the game.� Both players are only 25
years old this year and give the Browns a very attractive future.� The problem with the Browns offense is the
rushing attack that still suffers from below average offensive line play.� William Green finally had a decent
performance last week after a season of futility but that was likely due more
to playing the hapless Bengals than stepping up his own play.� Until the Browns get some strong
run-blocking offensive lineman, it is doubtful any running back is going to
experience consistent success. The
Saints continue to be hot and cold depending on the week.� They have gone from being in a great
position to make the playoffs as a top seed to being in a dogfight to simply
make the playoffs.� Within their own
division, they sit in second place behind the Buccaneers but have the surging
Falcons breathing down their necks.� The
biggest concern to the Saints has to be the injury to running back, Deuce
McAllister who suffered a high-ankle sprain last week.� Without him the offense loses a lot of its
strength and will not be nearly as effective.�
It appears that Curtis Keaton will get the nod at quarterback if
McAllister is unable to go.� Aaron
Brooks continues to have a strong year for the team.� He has thrown an impressive 21 touchdown passes over the first
ten games and has rushed for two more.�
He is certainly having the strongest season of his young career.� Joe Horn has been on fire over the last five
contests with almost 500 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns.� He has been the most consistent of the
Saints receivers and continues to have an excellent relationship with
Brooks.� Donte Stallworth has had an up
and down rookie season while suffering through some injuries but has a
tremendous 6 touchdown catches on only 22 receptions.� That is really good when you consider he missed three games due
to injury. Must Starts: Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Tim Couch,
Quincy Morgan Fantasy related Injuries � Deuce McAllister � questionable; Jamel White -
questionable Predicted
Score: Browns 24 at Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 5-5 at New York Jets 5-5
Game Forecast Huge AFC
Eastern tilt in New York this weekend.�
The game has huge playoff implications for both teams and the loser will
likely find it impossible to climb back into the playoff picture.� With so many teams within one game of each
other, the fight for the playoffs is going to be ruthless and teams cannot hope
to lose against the competition if they wish to make it.� The Jets deserve a ton of credit for getting
back into the hunt despite a horrible start.�
Chad Pennington has been a wonderful surprise for the team and has the
entire offense playing at a great level.�
He is completing an amazing 71 % of his passes on 221 attempts and has
twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.�
It must be said that he has played poor pass defenses during the last
five games with the only tough team being the Miami Dolphins who effectively
shut him down but it is still very impressive what he has accomplished so
far.� Laveranues Coles has finally
stepped up as the legitimate # 1 receiver for the team and Wayne Chrebet has
emerged from his coma to become the solid target he once was.� Even Santana Moss has stepped up his play
and has developed into a talented third option at the receiver position.� Curtis Martin still isn�t up to his normal
standards but has elevated his game over the last month and is up to 575 yards
rushing on the season.� He could still
get his 1000 yards on the season with a good finish.� The Jets defensive unit has been much better over the last five
contests.� Ever since they contained
Priest Holmes and then Ricky Williams, this team looks like the defense that
most thought they could be going into the season and not the unit that was
horrible through the first several games of the year. The
Bills have tumbled back down to earth after an amazing beginning to the
season.� They lost against the Jets in
week one but that was a game they should have won.� A complete collapse on defense cost them that victory and they
will find it tough to go into New York and avenge that loss.� Drew Bledsoe is still on pace for 4843
passing yards on the season although he has slowed down some over the last few
games.� The passing game will keep them
in every game they play and the duo of Eric Moulds and Peerless Price continue
to be the best in the business.� Travis
Henry continues his dream season.� He is
on pace for 1400 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns and will continue to do well
against defenses that cannot focus on stopping him because of the awesome
passing attack.� Take away the
embarrassing loss to the Patriots in week nine and the Bills defense has
actually been playing much better.� They
have giving up 24, 10, 17, 38 (Patriots), and 17 points over the last five
games and have looked much more effective than they were to start the season. Must Starts: Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric
Moulds, Peerless Price, Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Curtis Martin Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted
Score: Bills 24 at Jets 27 Detroit Lions 3-7 at Chicago 2-8
Game Forecast A game
between two teams who are fighting for high draft picks instead of the
playoffs.� That was expected for the
Lions but it has been a very disappointing season for the Bears who were
expected to challenge for the NFC title this season only to have their season
crumble around them.� With eight straight
losses, the entire season is a write-off and it is back to the drawing board
for the team.� Only Marty Booker has had
a good year on an offense that has struggled to find an identity.� Anthony Thomas continues to average a
pathetic 3.3 yards per carry although that has quite a bit to do with poor
blocking up front.� Both quarterbacks,
Jim Miller and Chris Chandler have been inconsistent and the Bears will likely
look at drafting a quarterback early in the draft.� The defense was supposed to be a strong point but it has been
anything but to this point.� The pass
defense has been horrible and teams have been moving the ball against them with
too much ease. The
Lions have had their moments this season but are a few key players away from
being a good football team.� Joey
Harrington is learning as he goes and isn�t doing a horrible job but doesn�t
have enough offensive weapons surrounding him to elevate his play.� With Az Zahir Hakim now injured, the already
weak receiving core becomes even more so.�
The Lions really need Germane Crowell to find the talent that made him
one of the best receivers in the game a few years back.� Look for the Lions to draft a young receiver
early in the 2003 draft.� Harrington has
thrown for under 200 yards in four of the last five games and is now completing
fewer than 50 % of his passes.� However
he has shown poise and maturity at times this season and will be a good one if
the team can add some talent in around him.�
Last week, the trio at receiver for the team caught a combined 7 passes,
ran poor routes and didn�t give the young quarterback much to work for.� James Stewart has been terrific over the
last five contests, running for over 500 yards and 3 touchdowns in that span.� The Lions are a much better team when they
can get some production out of him.� The
Lions pass defense has been terrible but the run defense has shown
progress.� The defense has improved over
the past several games. Must Starts: Marty Booker Fantasy related Injuries � Az Zahir Hakim � out; John Davis - questionable Predicted
Score: Lions 13 at Bears 24 |
Name |
Com |
Att |
Pass yards |
IC |
TD |
Y/A |
QB Rat. |
Marc Bulger |
113 |
173 |
1496 |
4 |
12 |
8.65 |
106.0 |
Kurt Warner |
90 |
129 |
912 |
8 |
1 |
7.07 |
66.4 |
Warner was
completing a high percentage of passes but was not getting the ball down the
field and obviously wasn�t finding a way to get the ball into the end
zone.� He used to attack the field using
both short and deep passes but wasn�t able to get the ball down the field at
the start of this season.� Bulger isn�t
as accurate as Warner but attacks the field and gets the ball to Isaac Bruce
and Torry Holt where they are in a position to make big plays.� The touch pass he threw to tight end Ernie
Conwell last week was one of the nicest throws I have seen this season.� A lot of the Rams early season woes could be
traced to not utilizing Marshall Faulk enough on the field but Warner�s
inability to throw touchdown passes has to be of concern.� Another issue has been the opponents both
quarterbacks have faced.� Warner had to
face three of the top five defenses in the NFL in the Giants, Broncos and
Buccaneers to start the season while Bulger has had the opportunity to face
weak pass defenses such as the Seahawks, Bears and Cardinals.� Now Warner is back just in time to face two
more strong defenses in the Redskins and Eagles.� That is a major reason why Warner has looked so poor this season
and Bulger so strong.
The Redskins are
crumbling under first year coach Steve Spurrier.� The quarterback roulette wheel has spun once again and landed on
Danny Wuerffel (come on Spurrier� as if he is the answer to your prayers) and
he will get the start this weekend.� The
multiple changes on the offensive side of the ball have left the team baffled
and bewildered on most weeks and the Skins have nothing to look forward to
except next season.� The Skins have a
solid defensive unit but will not win many games with this quarterback under
the helm.
Must Starts: Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt
Possible Starts: Marshall Faulk (could be a
must start if he is 100 % ready to play), Kurt Warner, Stephen Davis, Rod
Gardner, Ernie Conwell
Only in a Pinch: Danny Wuerffel, Willie
Jackson, Ricky Proehl, Troy Edwards (only in an emergency)
Fantasy related Injuries � Marshall Faulk � questionable
Final Thoughts:� In
all honesty, I am not sure what to expect out of the Rams offense this
weekend.� If Kurt Warner struggles and
Marshall Faulk has problems, the Rams will likely struggle to keep the winning
streak alive.� However even if they do
have problems on offense with Warner back under the center, the Redskins have
even more issues on that side of the ball and the Rams could easily find a way
to win.� If Warner does regain his MVP
form, the Rams could win by a bunch.�
We�ll know after this week if Warner is back or destined to be a trivia
question in the year 2030 about a quarterback who rose from obscurity to MVP
and back to obscurity in only a few seasons.�
However, Warner is a competitor and I�d put money on him finding his
game on Sunday.� Hopefully for him, he
will play well enough over the next two games against tough pass defenses to
reap the benefits of playing the Chiefs, Seahawks and Cardinals after that.
Predicted Score: Rams 20 at Redskins 13
Game Forecast
The
Giants appeared to be little threat to the division leading Eagles a few weeks
back when the Eagles completely dominated them in a 17 to 3 victory in which
the Giants couldn�t do anything right on offense.� They were sitting at 3-4 and were losing ground in a hurry.� However since then, the Giants have won
three games in a row and are back in a fight with the McNabb less Eagles.� The Giants can smell division title and are
playing solid football now.� Tiki Barber
has been everything the team could hope for this season and has stayed quite
healthy.� He is on pace for 1870 total
yards and a respectable 8 touchdowns and is running the ball with passion and
effectiveness.� Amani Toomer has
disappointed fantasy owners once again but is on pace to put up his standard
1130+ receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.�
It is too bad he cannot seem to get over that hump.� Rookie tight end Jeremy Shockey has had one
of the most memorable rookie seasons in a long time for both the right and
wrong reasons.� Between his constant
yapping on the field, his controversial comments off the field, his passionate
play and his painful toe injury, he has been in the news more than any rookie
in a long time.� He has all the tools to
be one of the top players in the game and it won�t be long before he is
catching 6 passes a game.
The
Texans have had a respectable inaugural campaign and will be rewarded in the
future for getting rookie quarterback, David Carr so much playing time.� He has a poise and maturity beyond his years
and only needs some playmakers around him before he is considered one of the
best in the game.� Carr has had one of
the finest rookie seasons in recent memory with a 54.6 completion percentage,
only 2 more interceptions than touchdowns and a solid 6.63 yards per passing
attempt.� That is very solid production
for a first year quarterback on an expansion team.� Expect great things from him in the future.� The best news for the Texans this year has
been the emergence of Corey Bradford at the receiver position.� He is on pace for 10 touchdown receptions
and will likely reside with the team as a viable weapon for Carr to utilize for
the next several seasons.� As rookie
receiver Jabar Gaffney matures and the team develops an offensive line that can
run block, the pieces will be in place for the Texans to have a strong
offensive attack.� Another surprise has
been Billy Miller who has emerged as a threat from the tight end position.� He is a great receiver and has had a very
nice season with the team.�
Must Starts: Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey
Possible Starts: Kerry Collins, Amani Toomer, Billy Miller, Corey
Bradford
Only in a Pinch: David Carr, Jonathon Wells, James Allen, Ron Dayne,
Ike Hilliard, Herman Moore (only if you are desperate), Jabar Gaffney
Fantasy related Injuries � Ron Dixon - doubtful
Final Thoughts:� The Texans will battle the Giants hard but fall short of an
upset.� Look for 100 + total yards from
Tiki Barber on the day.
Predicted Score: Giants 17 at
Texans 10
Game Forecast
With
Brian Griese out of action for a while, the reins of the offense have been
handed to long-time veteran, Steve Beuerlein who is more than capable of
leading the team to some victories.� The
Broncos are playing good football but are in a dogfight in the tough AFC West
and every game is huge for the team.�
Clinton Portis has become an excellent option for the team in the
backfield and has become the full time back.�
He has put up 442 yards rushing, 159 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns in
the last five games and is getting better each week.� The Colts are not a terrific defense and he�ll likely have a
great game this week.� Rod Smith hasn�t
been as terrific as he has been in seasons past but he is still on pace for
1074 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.�
His average per reception is down but he is still one of the finest
receivers in the game.� The Broncos
defense has been strong all season and will likely be the difference in this
game.
Peyton
Manning and the Colts are on fire.� In
the last five starts, Manning has completed a sizzling 71.7 % (137-191) of his
passes and thrown for an impressive 1416 yards.� He has especially been sharp during the last three games,
completed a staggering 75.7 % of his throws with 7 touchdowns against only 2
interceptions.� It is hard to ignore
that kind of production.� Another player
on fire for the team is Marvin Harrison who has to be considered the finest
receiver in the NFL today with his consistency over the last four seasons.� He is on pace for a record-breaking 142
receptions and an outstanding 1776 yards receiving.� He runs perfect routes and knows how to get open on the
field.� Edgerrin James came back to play
last weekend, put up good numbers but sprained his ankle.� However he insists he is ready to go this
weekend so expect him in the lineup.� A
healthy James would be a huge addition to the team but it is unclear at this
time how healthy he is going to be going into this weekend�s game.� A big-time difference maker has emerged on
the defensive side of the ball.� Rookie
defensive end, Dwight Freely started the season as a pass-rush specialist but
has been on fire since becoming the full time starting end.� He has put up sacks in six straight football
games and has the speed and quickness needed to be a stud in a Tony Dungy
defense.� Look for huge things from him
over the final six games.
Must Starts: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison,
Clinton Portis, Rod Smith
Possible Starts: Steve Beuerlein, Edgerrin
James, Ed McCaffrey
Only in a Pinch: Marcus Pollard, Dwayne
Carswell, Mike Anderson, Ashley Lelie, Reggie Wayne
Fantasy related Injuries � Qadry Ismail � questionable; Edgerrin James �
questionable; Brian Griese � out; Shannon Sharpe � out�
Final Thoughts:� This
will be a very close game with the Colts playing so well right now.� The teams are very evenly matched and it
will likely be decided in the final few minutes.� Expect big things from Clinton Portis in this one.� He should end up with over 100 yards in
total offense and a score.
Predicted Score: Colts 17 at Broncos 20
Game Forecast
A few
weeks back the Eagles looked like Super Bowl favorites in the NFC.� Then the Colts came into Philadelphia and
put a beating on the team and then last week the Eagles lost star quarterback
Donovan McNabb to a broken ankle.�
McNabb earned �Tough Guy of the Year� with his performance last week,
finishing the game despite his injury and still throwing for 4 touchdown passes
but he is out for a minimum of several weeks and possibly the entire
season.� The entire offense is built
around the talented, athletic quarterback and now, with the Giants coming up
fast behind them in the division, the Eagles find themselves in the hands of
Koy Detmer who hasn�t started a football game since 1999.� Detmer has thrown 15 completions in 44
attempts over the last three seasons for 232 passing yards and 3 touchdowns
against 4 interceptions.� He is
obviously not in McNabb�s league and the team will need to change their
philosophy on offense in a hurry.� The
Eagles key to success will be to rely on the running talents of Duce Staley,
Dorsey Levens and Brian Westbrook and try to establish a power running game
that will take a lot of pressure off of Detmer�s shoulders.� The defense is strong and the Eagles don�t
have to score a ton of points to win each week.
The
49ers are coming off of a very disappointing loss to the Chargers, giving up 14
fourth quarter points and then losing the game in overtime.� They will be an angry football team this
weekend and will attack the new Eagles quarterback with determination and
intensity.� On offense, expect to see a
lot of the running back tandem, Kevan Barlow and Garrison Hearst as the 49ers
try and wear down the Eagles team.� This
is a huge game for the 49ers who must feel the surging Rams breathing down
their backs.� They must win this game to
keep the two game edge on the Rams and to regain the momentum they will need to
have success in the post-season.�
Must Starts: Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens
Possible Starts: Kevan Barlow, Garrison
Hearst, Duce Staley, Tai Streets
Only in a Pinch: Dorsey Levens, Brian
Westbrook, James Thrash, Antonio Freeman, Todd Pinkston, Koy Detmer, Chad Lewis
Fantasy related Injuries � Donovan McNabb � out; Eric Johnson - questionable
Final Thoughts:�
Without Donovan McNabb, I cannot see the Eagles keeping this game that
close.� Expect the 49ers to put a lot of
pressure on the Eagles pivot and they will likely cause a few turnovers that
the offense can exploit.� This should be
a defensive game that will be won by the Niners unless the Eagles can switch
their team philosophy in a hurry and become a power running football team that
can cause problems for the 49ers team.
Predicted Score: Eagles 10 at 49ers 24