Week 17

 

This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website.

 

 

Hello Everyone.� First of all, let me thank each and every one of you for taking the time to read my weekly column.� All of the emails I received (both positive and negative) were appreciated and I have enjoyed bringing you my thoughts all season. This week�s Forecaster will be a little different.� With many leagues already decided and owners already looking ahead to next year, I will stray from the usual format.� I will take a quick look at week 17 and will predict the scores for each game. However most of my final column for the 2002 season will forecast the 2003 fantasy football season and give you an idea on what players I believe could make it a winning season for your squad next year at quarterback, running back and receiver.

 

Without further adieu!

 

Week 17 NFL Games --My Forecasting record after sixteen weeks is:
142 Wins / 97 Losses / 1 Tie

 

 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28

 

Philadelphia 13 at NY Giants 17 � This game will be a defensive struggle.� The Giants are playing super football and should pull out a home victory.

Kansas City 17 at Oakland 24 � The Chiefs will give the Raiders all they can handle but it won�t be enough in Oakland.

 

 

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 29

 

Baltimore 13 at Pittsburgh 24 � The Steelers will want to close out the season with a bang.� Should win easily.

Dallas 13 at Washington 20 � Dallas will have a coaching change after this game. Redskins finally beat the Cowboys after seasons of futility.

Tennessee 17 at Houston 10 � The Titans won�t have a letdown against the Texans.� Should be close though as the Texans are solid at home.

Cincinnati 14 at Buffalo 34 � Bledsoe and company will light up the Bengals secondary.� Expect a ton of fantasy production from the Bills.

Atlanta 17 at Cleveland 20 � The Browns are Falcons will both be fired up for this game.� Browns win in front of the home fans.

Minnesota 20 at Detroit 14 � The Vikings are an improving football team and should compete in 2003.� Look for a Viking win.

Miami 24 at New England 14 � The Patriots have no running game and the passing attack has disappeared.� Dolphins win.

Carolina 17 at New Orleans 27 � The up and down season of the Saints continues on.� Saints will beat the Panthers on Sunday.

Jacksonville 14 at Indianapolis 27 � The Colts need a win to get to the Post Season.� They�ll get it against the Jaguars.

Green Bay 16 at NY Jets 24 � Chad Pennington and the Jets passing attack is hot.� They should beat the Packers in New York.

Arizona 10 at Denver 37 � Broncos lost a huge game last week.� Look for a huge game from Clinton Portis.

Seattle 17 at San Diego 20 � The Chargers have seen their season collapse down the stretch once again. �Should win this week though.

Tampa Bay 17 at Chicago 7 � The Buccaneers win on the way to a possible Super Bowl berth.� What a great first season for Jon Gruden!

 

 

MONDAY, DECEMBER 30

 

San Francisco 17 at St. Louis 14 � The 49ers have nothing to play for and the Rams have been awful down the stretch.� Who wins?� Who cares!

 

My Choice for MVP for the 2002 season

 

Here is who I think should be the MVP and my four runner-ups�

 

4th runner-up � Rich Gannon, Raiders:� He is the favorite to win the award this year but I am not as impressed as most are.� He is a great quarterback but benefits from an offensive system that allows him to throw it ten yards or less down the field on almost every play.� He certainly is a contender for the award, but he wasn�t the most valuable player in the entire NFL in my mind.

 

3rd runner-up � Marvin Harrison, Colts:� Impossible to ignore what he means to the team.� His numbers this season are staggering and he is the epitome of a professional football player.� If ever a receiver was deserving of the award, it would be this season.

 

2nd runner-up � Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers:� Where would the Chargers be without the services of this excellent running back?� He carried the team to victory in many football games this season.

 

1st runner-up � Ricky Williams, Dolphins:� He has become the driving force behind the Dolphins offensive attack.� The Dolphins rely on him as much as any team uses any player in the league and he held up quite well under the pressure.� He is the leading rusher after 16 weeks and has 15 touchdowns.

 

MY 2002 MVP � Priest Holmes, Chiefs:� I don�t care if he misses the final two weeks of the season, Holmes is without question the MVP of this season.� He had a season that will go down as one of the greatest ever with a terrific 5.2 yard average, 1615 rushing yards, 672 receiving yards and an amazing 24 touchdowns.

 

 

 

Looking Ahead to the 2003 Fantasy Season

 

The Quarterback Position

 

There will be many questions to answer going into next season.� Some of them are as follows�

 

(1)   � Who will win the starting quarterback job in St. Louis?� At this time it truly is a toss up but I believe Kurt Warner will have something to prove and will have a great shot at the job by the time the pre-season is over.� The Rams obviously have the talent to get the job done on offense so whoever wins the job could have a very solid season.� Warner had 98 passing touchdowns over 43 games until this train wreck of a season.� He may be one heck of a bargain in round four or later next year.

(2)   �- Who will win the starting quarterback job in Seattle?� Trent Dilfer looked to be the man for many seasons to come but Matt Hasselbeck has stepped in and done a tremendous job for the team.� It looks like Hasselbeck will be the guy to lead the Seahawks into the future but there is likely going to be a coaching change over the off-season and that could definitely change things at the pivot position.� Tons of offensive talent in Seattle, Hasselbeck will win the starting quarterback position and will be one of the best value picks in 2003.

(3)   �- Who will win the starting quarterback job in Pittsburgh?� It appears that Tommy Maddox will be the starter next year but I don�t think it is written in stone yet.� Bill Cowher has always been a Kordell Stewart fan and there were rumblings as recently as last week in regards to Stewart getting another shot as the starting quarterback.

(4)   �- Will Jake Plummer be back in Arizona next season?� My gut says �No Way!� but we�ll have to wait and see.� He has been very erratic his entire career but perhaps a change of venue will spark his career.� He certainly has enough talent to get it done on a weekly basis.

(5)   � Will Brian Griese keep his starting job in Denver?� I don�t think Steve Beuerlein is a long-term solution so Griese should keep his job next year.� However don�t be surprised if the Broncos try to find other options at the position for the 2003 campaign.� They are not very happy with the play of Griese.

 

Here is my Top Ten ranking for the 2003 season as of December 23rd/2002

 

1.      Michael Vick, Falcons

2.      Donovan McNabb, Eagles

3.      Daunte Culpepper, Vikings

4.      Aaron Brooks, Saints

5.      Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

6.      Peyton Manning, Colts

7.      Jeff Garcia, 49ers

8.      Kerry Collins, Giants

9.      Rich Gannon, Raiders

10.  Chad Pennington, Jets

 

 

The Running Back Position

 

Here are some of the questions that we will be seeking answers for in 2003�

 

(1)   � Does Eddie George have anything left in the gas tank?� He did some things well during the 2002 season but his pathetic yards per carry average cannot be overlooked.� George believes he can run for 1500 yards in a season again but he may need 500 carries to do it!� He will be nothing better than a # 2 running back on your fantasy squad from this point on and should not go before round three.

(2)   � Can Clinton Portis maintain the momentum is had over the second half of his rookie season?� In a word, yes!� He is a very talented athlete and should be the man right from game one.� He will easily end up in the top ten fantasy running backs and could be a top five player.

(3)   �- Will Edgerrin James ever be the same fantasy force he was during the 2000 and 2001 seasons?� He certainly could be but I would be hesitant in ranking him too high in such a deep fantasy position.� There will be more depth at running back in 2003 than in any other season I can remember.� James would be a good second round steal.

(4)   � Tiki Barber was on fire during the second half of 2002.� Was it a fluke or is he that good?� Barber is certainly that good but the one thing that scares me about Barber is his durability.� I like his value late in the second round, early in the third.� Anything earlier than that is certainly a risk.

 

(5)   �- What will happen in Jacksonville next season?� With both Fred Taylor and Stacey Mack free agents in 2003, we will have to wait and see if the team decides to keep neither, one or both of the running backs.� Taylor is obviously the best running back but simply is not durable enough to play an entire season.� Mack is more of a plodder but can certainly be a 320+ carry running back in the NFL.� I believe the Jaguars will keep Taylor.

 

(6)   � Will Corey Dillon remain with the Bengals in 2003?� I think it is very unlikely that Dillon will remain with the team.� With the Bengals owning the top pick in the 2003 draft, I believe they will try and trade Dillon to improve the future outlook of the franchise.� The rumor I have heard that makes the most sense right now is in regards to the Raiders.� The Raiders own two first-round picks and could package them to the Bengals for the rights to Dillon.� Then the Bengals could take Willis McGahee from the Hurricanes (I still think he will come out this season) and still upgrade a horrible secondary with two more first round picks.� If the Bengals play their cards correctly, they could emerge as a viable threat for many seasons to come.

 

 

Here is my Top Ten ranking for the 2003 season as of December 23rd/2002

 

1.      Priest Holmes, Chiefs

2.      Marshall Faulk, Rams

3.      Shaun Alexander, Seahawks

4.      Ricky Williams, Dolphins

5.      Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers

6.      Travis Henry, Bills

7.      Clinton Portis, Broncos

8.      Deuce McAllister, Saints

9.      Ahman Green, Packers

10.  Michael Bennett, Vikings / Jamal Lewis, Ravens � tie

 

������������������ *** Watch out for Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor/Stacey Mack to see where they end up.

 

 

 

The Receiver Position

 

Here are some of the questions that we will be seeking answers for in 2003�

 

� Is Tim Brown finished as a viable fantasy option?� I would say yes.� Jerry Porter is ready to make the leap to a starting player in the NFL.� Tim Brown will be at best a solid back up for fantasy football next season

� Should we downgrade Randy Moss after his disappointing fantasy season?� No way!� Even in his disappointing season this year, he still has 100 receptions, over 1200 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns.� He�ll be at least as solid next year and likely better.

�- Who will be the next studs at the receiver position?� Koren Robinson will likely be a top five receiver next year.� He is that good and on a team with a ton of offensive capability.� Others who will continue to climb the charts are Quincy Morgan, Chris Chambers and Travis Taylor.� Also look for young players such as Antonio Bryant and Ashley Lelie to begin to emerge.

� Should Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith still be considered elite NFL receivers?� I would certainly look at downgrading both of these receivers for next year.� With so many young players beginning to stand out as solid fantasy options, these players shouldn�t be taken until at least round six.� They would be good options if taken round six or later.

 

 

Here is my Top Ten ranking for the 2003 season as of December 23rd/2002

 

1.      Marvin Harrison, Colts

2.      Randy Moss, Vikings

3.      Terrell Owens, 49ers

4.      Koren Robinson, Seahawks

5.      Eric Moulds, Bills

6.      Torry Holt, Rams

7.      Plaxico Burress, Steelers

8.      Laveranues Coles, Jets

9.      Joe Horn, Saints

10.  Quincy Morgan, Browns

 

 

 

Best Value Picks for the 2003 season

 

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

Marshall Faulk, Rams

Koren Robinson, Seahawks

Quincy Morgan, Browns

Travis Taylor, Ravens

Chris Chambers, Dolphins

 

 

Worst Value Picks for the 2003 season

 

Rich Gannon, Raiders

Eddie George, Titans

Jerry Rice, Raiders

Rod Smith, Broncos

Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
Tim Brown, Raiders

 

 

Well folks.� This is the final edition of The Forecaster for the 2002 fantasy season.� I would like to thank Joe Bryant and David Dodds for allowing me to be a part of the finest fantasy football team on the planet.� I hope you enjoyed the column and I wish you all a very Merry Christmas, a happy new year and a 2003 Fantasy League Championship.� See you all next season.

 

Thanks again Sharks!� You guys are the best.