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This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not
correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website.
Like
the legendary Phoenix arising from the ashes, I have decided to put the
Forecaster�s hibernation on hiatus for a few more weeks.�� I am still in disbelief that my Dolphins
missed the playoffs in a year I thought they had a solid chance to get to the
Super Bowl.� That is parity for you, my
friends.� I would like to publicly air
my displeasure with the play calling that took place in the fourth quarter of
the Dolphins-Patriots game.� You have
the best power running back in the NFL who has already put up 180 rushing yards
on the day, you have the lead with three minutes to go and you are backed up
against your own goal line.� The play
calling for that series of plays should be a no-brainer, shouldn�t it?� Well if you are Norv Turner and the Dolphins
coaches, the answer to that is drop back to throw the ball on three straight
plays.� Baffling.� The phantom pass interference late in the
fourth quarter against Fletcher was a bogus call after both defenses utilized
tough defensive coverage all game but the Dolphins did too many things wrong
down the stretch to point to one awful call as the difference maker in their
season.� This loss is going to hurt the
players, the coaches and the fans for a long time to come.
Wild Card Round
New York Giants 10-6 at San Francisco 49ers 10-6
Game Forecast�
The New York Football Giants have rocked the National
Football League after winning their final four games to sneak into the
playoffs.� The Giants looked all but
finished after a spiritless loss to the Texans and a heart-breaking loss at
home to the Titans.� The only way the
Giants could make the playoffs was to have either the Falcons or the Saints
choke horribly down the stretch.� The
Saints decided to oblige them and lost three games in a row against
bottom-feeder teams and the Giants completed the marvelous playoff push by
knocking off the Eagles in week seventeen.�
Now the red-hot Giants head into San Francisco full of confidence,
emotion and excitement.� It was way back
in week one when these two teams hooked up on Thursday night in New York.� The Giants secondary absolutely shut down
Terrell Owens through the entire contest but the offensive attack could not
find a way to get the ball into the endzone despite Kerry Collins passing for
342 yards.� Tiki Barber had his finest
season as a professional and ended up with a rock solid 1387 rushing yards to
go along with 597 yards receiving.� He
also scored 11 touchdowns on the season and was the catalyst to the Giants
second half resurgence.� Amani Toomer
and Jeremy Shockey were also instrumental in the Giants final four wins of the
season.� Shockey ended up with 894 yards
receiving in his rookie season.� He will
likely be the top tight end in the league for years to come.
The 49ers coasted through the final few football games with
nothing to play for.� They were very
unlikely to move up in the standings and clinched the divisional title
early.� They were able to rest players
such as Terrell Owens and Jeff Garcia over the last couple of games and that
will help the offense get over the bumps and bruises that afflict everybody at
this time of the season.� However it
will be interesting to see if the 49ers can turn the dial back to full-throttle
and be ready to be in an all-out war against a very hot football club.� Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow give the
team an incredible one-two punch and combined for 1647 rushing yards on the
season.� Both running backs will be
critical to the 49ers chances of victory because is will be easy to attack the
Giants on the ground than it will be to beat them through the air.� In the earlier meeting this season, Garcia
was able to complete only 16 passes for 166 yards on the day as the Giants were
successful in slowing Owens and the other receivers.� The Giants only gave up 194.9 passing yards per game during the
season so it will be important for the 49ers to establish a strong ground
attack against the mediocre run defense (114.4 rushing yards per game against).
Must Starts: Garrison Hearst, Terrell Owens, Amani Toomer, Tiki
Barber, Jeremy Shockey
Possible
Starts: Kerry
Collins, Jeff Garcia, Tai Streets, Kevan Barlow
Only in
a Pinch: Eric
Johnson, Ron Dixon
Fantasy related Injuries � Ron Dixon may be able to play this weekend
Final Thoughts:� The key match up in this game
appears to be the 49ers 6th ranked rushing attack matching up
against the Giants 16th ranked run defense.� Kerry Collins could have a great game
passing the ball and racking up yardage as the 49ers ranked near the bottom of
the league in passing yards given up per game.�
However the 49ers did get 19 interceptions on the season including 3 in
the first meeting between the two teams.�
The 49ers are at home, well rested and ready to make a push towards the
Super Bowl.� The Giants are hot but will
have to play a perfect game to win on the road.� It will be close but San Francisco should prevail.
Predicted
Score: Giants
20 at 49ers 24
Atlanta Falcons 9-6-1 at Green Bay Packers 12-4
Game Forecast�
The Falcons are to be commended in their
surprising turnaround into a playoff team this season.� Nobody thought this team would be able to
make the post-season with so many question marks on both sides of the
ball.� Good coaching and a wonderful
first season as a starting quarterback from Michael Vick helped them to succeed
and the future is very rosy for the team.�
However this week will likely be a big learning experience as the
Packers are almost unbeatable at home in the playoffs. The Packers will be an
upset football team after laying a huge egg in New York last week when home
field advantage throughout the playoffs was up for grabs.� The Packers were 8-0 at home this season
including a three point, week one victory against the Falcons.� The Falcons were not a great football team
down the stretch as they limped into the post-season and they will need a huge
game from Michael Vick on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to even have a
shot at winning this game.� The Packers
are outstanding at defending the pass and should be able to contain the
receivers from the Falcons.� That will
put pressure on Michael Vick to make something happen with his running
skills.� Also Warrick Dunn and possibly
T.J. Duckett will need to be a force running the ball and will likely need at
least 25 carries between them to keep the Falcons in the game.� The Packers can be run on with some success
so it will be important for the Falcons to establish that part of the game
early on.
The Key for the Packers is simple.� Establish the running game with Ahman Green
and keep on attacking the Falcons via the ground.� Ahman Green had an up and down season but he will be a real key
for the Packers in the post-season.� He
ran for 155 yards against the Falcons in the first meeting and should have
enough carries to finish with at least that many in this game.� I expect the Packers to have little problem
moving the ball up and down the field on the overmatched Falcons defense.� Getting embarrassed against the Jets last
week was likely the best thing that could have happened to the Packers heading
into the post-season.� It should have them
focused, angry and determined to put that ugly loss behind them. Brett Favre thrives
in the playoffs when in the cozy comforts of Lambeau Field and he will have an
excellent game.
Must Starts: Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Bubba Franks, Michael Vick
Possible
Starts: Warrick
Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Brian Finneran, Terry Glenn, Donald Driver-questionable
Only in
a Pinch: Quentin
McCord, Trevor Gaylor, Robert Ferguson, T.J. Duckett, William Henderson
Fantasy related Injuries � Donald Driver-questionable
Final Thoughts:� The Falcons should be happy just
to be in the playoffs.� It was supposed
to be a learning year for Michael Vick but he led them to the post-season in
his first go around as a starting NFL quarterback.� He has a lot to learn still but has the potential to be one of
the best players ever if he continues to improve.� Look for at least 75 rushing yards from Michael Vick in this game
but he will likely be intercepted at least twice and the Packers will roll to a
very easy first round victory.
Predicted
Score: Falcons
16 at Packers 34
Cleveland Browns 9-7 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10-5-1
Game Forecast�
I am still in awe that the
Cleveland Browns made the playoffs over such teams as the Broncos, Dolphins and
Patriots.� What makes the NFL such a joy
to follow is that every team seems to have the capability to compete for the
playoffs in any given year (except the Bengals of course).�� The interesting thing about the Browns is
their 6-2 record on the road this season.�
If ever there was a team built for success on the road in the playoffs,
it appears to be the Browns.� With Tim
Couch out with a broken fibula, the quarterback position was spun back around
to Kelly Holcombe who looked so solid early in the season.� The true reason for the Browns rise to this
level has been the play of rookie running back William Green who looked like a
major bust during the first half of the season.� However over the last seven football games, he ran for 726 yards
and scored a solid 5 touchdowns.� He
only had 161 rushing yards through the first nine games.� Some of his success should be contributed to
the offensive line which finally began to jell as a unit over the final half of
the season but Green appeared much more comfortable running with the football
and now looks like the franchise back the team hoped he could be.� He may find it extremely difficult to run
against the Steelers though who are the # 1 ranked run defense in the entire
NFL giving up only 85.9 yards per game.
The Steelers should be considered
a solid contender to knock off the Raiders on the way to a Super Bowl
appearance.� The Steelers are equal in
talent to any team in the NFL, have two superstars at receiver in Hines Ward
and Plaxico Burress and an outstanding rushing attack that features both Jerome
Bettis and Amos Zereoue.� Most football
fans have forgotten about the Steelers but I wouldn�t be surprised to see them
hoisting the Super Bowl at the end of the year.� The key to the Steelers success will be Tommy Maddox.� He hasn�t been as effective since his return
for the scary injury he suffered back in week 11 against the Titans but is
still an accurate passer who gets the ball into the hands of his
playmakers.� The Steelers beat the
Browns both times this season by a total of six points.� The Browns are dangerous when they are
allowed to hang around in a football game so the Steelers will need to try and
knocked them out of it early on.
Must Starts: �Tommy
Maddox, Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Jerome Bettis
Possible
Starts: William
Green, Quincy Morgan, Kelly Holcombe, Kevin Johnson, Amos Zereoue
Only in
a Pinch: Dennis
Northcutt, Jamel White, Antwaan Randle El
Fantasy related Injuries � Tim Couch-out
Final Thoughts:� The Steelers are the better team
on both offense and defense.� The Browns
have the knack at times to win games in an ugly fashion but they will have to
play the game of their lives to go into Pittsburgh and knock off the
experienced, talented Steelers squad.� I
expect big games from both Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward on the day as the
Steelers roll to victory.
Predicted
Score: Browns
17 at Steelers 24
�
Indianapolis Colts 10-6 at New York Jets 9-7
Game Forecast�
Who else out there is stunned that the team representing the
AFC East is the New York Jets?�
After starting the season a disappointing 1-4, the Jets have caught fire
at the right time and are 8-3 since then.�
Chad Pennington has been exceptional in his first real action as a pro
and my only question is this�
Why the hell did it take the Jets so long to get this kid
into the game and Vinny Testaverde to the sidelines?
The Jets passing game is rolling along nicely but will have
a great challenge this week against the # 2 ranked Colts passing defense that
has been very solid in slowing down the opposition�s air attack.� Pennington has completed an amazing 68.9 %
of his passes on the season and has thrown only 6 interceptions.��
How old is this kid again?
Another encouraging thing for the Jets has been the renewed
success of running back Curtis Martin who was just horrible to start the
season.� He had only 98 rushing yards
after week four but has been solid since then and ended up running for 996
yards over the final 12 games.� The Jets
will need Martin to run for over 100 yards to knock off the Colts.� The Colts gave up 124.5 rushing yards per
game during the season and it is important that the Jets are relentless on the
ground to keep Peyton Manning and company off of the field.
The Colts are the best road team this week and could easily
pull off an upset.� Everyone is talking
about the Jets strong surge to end the year but the Colts also won 6 of their
final 8 games and have seen the defensive unit improve on a weekly basis.� The scary thing for the Jets is going up
against Manning and the 4th ranked passing attack of the Colts.� The Jets give up over 218 passing yards per
game and do not sack the quarterback enough.�
If they give Manning time to throw the ball, the Colts will find a way
to win this game.� It is crucial for the
Jets chances that they find a way to get into Manning�s face and force him to
throw poor passes.�
Must Starts: Curtis Martin, Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles,
Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Marcus Pollard
Possible
Starts: Edgerrin
James, Wayne Chrebet, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne
Only in
a Pinch: James
Mungro, Anthony Becht
Fantasy related Injuries � Qadry Ismail is out for the season
Final Thoughts:� The Colts were solid on the road
this year and have victories against the Eagles and the Broncos while away from
Indianapolis, under their belt.� Going
into New York and knocking off the surging Jets team will not be easy but Peyton
Manning and the Colts are certainly capable of pulling off a first round
upset.� Of all the games this weekend,
this one appears to be the most likely for an upset to occur.� The last time these teams faced off in New
York was the first week of the 2001 campaign.�
The Colts won that game 45 to 24.�
I consider this game a complete toss-up so I�ll give the nod to the Jets
at home.� Don�t be surprised however if
the Colts pull off the upset.
Predicted
Score: Colts
20 at Jets 21
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