The Forecaster
Week Five
by Chris Smith

This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website.

2002 Forecaster record to date: 32 wins against 28 losses.

****If a player is not listed you should not consider playing him this week. ****

SUNDAY, October 6th… On Bye “Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Seattle”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1 at Atlanta Falcons 1-2

Game Forecast

The man with many faces, Jon Gruden has led the Buccaneers out to a solid 3-1 start and could easily have been 4-0 on the season so far. While the offense has only been decent so far, the Buccaneers defense has been tenacious and has been beating up on the offenses across from them. Led by timely interceptions from Derrick Brooks and revitalized play from Warren Sapp, this Buccaneers team is out to be the best team in the NFL this year. Brad Johnson has been playing mistake free football and is currently the 12th best fantasy quarterback after the first four weeks. The one concern for the team right now has to be the running game, which is not performing at the level it needs to each week. In order to win in the playoffs, it is important to be able to run the football with some degree of success. Michael Pittman runs the ball hard and is a finely tuned athlete but doesn’t seem to have the ability to make tackles miss which is so crucial to success at the professional level. Ricky Dudley has been a great find for the Buccaneers on offense. The talented tight end hasn’t been a fantasy option for years now but coach Gruden knows him from his Raider days and has turned him into a weapon for the team. The Buccaneers have all the pieces in place for a strong playoff push come January.

The Falcons have played outstanding football so far in 2002. They could easily have won their first three football games and the offense is beginning to show signs of not only being good, but great. They absolutely destroyed the Bengals in week three before heading out on their bye last week so their confidence is very high right now. Of course, everyone is destroying the Bengals right now so that really doesn’t count for much but confidence is so important with a young football team. Quarterback Michael Vick has been outstanding so far and has yet to throw an interception on the season. The team is protecting him with conservative play calling on offense but the offense has been opening up more and more each week and Vick looks like the real deal at quarterback. With his running skills, he is almost a lock to end up a top six quarterback by season’s end. The running back combination of Warrick Dunn and T. J. Duckett has been working well for the team. Dunn and Duckett compliment each other quite well with Dunn avoiding the tackles and Duckett punishing the tacklers. The Falcons will give the Buccaneers a great football game.

- The Buccaneers won the last meeting against the Falcons in Atlanta, 27 to 14 back during the 2000 campaign.

- The Buccaneers haven’t lost in Atlanta since 1994

The Buccaneers Notes:

· Brad Johnson is off to a good start with 965 passing yards and 6 touchdowns

· Michael Pittman has only rushed for 194 rushing yards on 55 carries.

· Keenan McCardell is the leading receiver with 237 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

· Keyshawn Johnson has forgotten where the end zone is. 0 touchdowns on the year after only 1 last year.

The Falcons Notes:

· Michael Vick has been on fire. 184 rushing yards / 549 passing yards and 0 interceptions on the season

· Warrick Dunn has a surprising 4 touchdowns in the first three games

· T.J. Duckett is running for more than 4 yards per carry.

· Brian Finneran has emerged as the go-to receiver with 2 touchdown receptions

Must Starts
QB Michael Vick
TE Alge Crumpler
QB Brad Johnson
WR Keyshawn Johnson
TE Ricky Dudley

Possible Starts
WR Brian Finneran
RB Warrick Dunn
RB T.J. Duckett
RB Michael Pittman
WR Keenan McCardell

Only in a Pinch
WR Willie Jackson
RB Mike Alstott
WR Joe Jurevicious



Final Thoughts: This is a huge divisional game, taking place in Atlanta on Sunday. The Buccaneers are the better team but the Falcons have the advantage of both coming off of a bye and playing at home. This game is going to come down to a late score, probably a field goal to win the game by one of the two teams. The Gruden led Buccaneers already lost one divisional game this season and the Falcons will make it two as they edge out the Buccaneers to get to 2-2.

Predicted Score:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Atlanta Falcons 23

Oakland Raiders 3-0 at Buffalo Bills 2-2

Game Forecast

You want offense? You want touchdowns? You want fireworks? If you like watching offenses march up and down the field like it is a drill in practice, you will love this game. Both offenses are on fire and do not show any signs of slowing down this year. I have always been a Drew Bledsoe fan since watching him air the ball out at Washington State but thought that would end when he traded in his Patriots jersey for a Bills one (obviously being a Dolphins fan means I have hated the Bills for a long time). However if anything my respect for Mr. Bledsoe has grown so far this season and he is showing more poise and ability now than at any other point in his career. While it appears the Patriots did indeed make a wise move by keeping Tom Brady and letting Bledsoe go, the Bills are delighted to have the veteran slinger on their side. The entire Bills offense has been on fire so far in 2002 and the duo of Eric Moulds and Peerless Price are revitalized on the football field. Both players are off to amazing starts and are not likely to slow down anytime soon.

As far as the Raiders go, it has been absolute domination so far this season. They have crushed all three teams they have played so far this season and the offense has been unstoppable. Jerry Rice looks like he is 25 years old again and the geriatric team of the NFL continue to impress with their experience and production. The most surprising player in Black and Silver this season has been running back Charlie Garner who has been dynamite to start the season. He has added another dimension to the football team and it is unlikely that teams will be able to stop the Raiders offense outright this season. The Raiders defense has also been quite strong and that will be the difference in this game. The Bills defense tries hard but simply does not have the talent yet to keep an offense like the Raiders off of the scoreboard.

- The Bills and the Raiders have played twice since 1998 with both teams winning once.

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The Raiders Notes:

- CB Charles Woodson is still out with injury.

· Rich Gannon has been on fire. 998 yards passing in 3 games and a stellar 7 touchdown passes

· Charlie Garner is averaging 7 yards per carry and has an impressive 4 touchdowns

· Jerry Rice is how old? The best receiver of all time just gets better. Averaging 88 yards per game

· Oakland Defense is giving up under 20 points per game

The Bills Notes:

· Drew Bledsoe is on a mission this year. 1345 passing yards and a remarkable 10 touchdowns after only 4 games.

· Travis Henry has been a nice back for the Bills with 385 total yards to go with 5 touchdowns

· Eric Moulds is ranked # 1 and Peerless Price is ranked at # 6 at the receiver position.

Must Starts
QB Rich Gannon
RB Charlie Garner
WR Jerry Rice
WR Tim Brown
QB Drew Bledsoe
WR Eric Moulds
WR Peerless Price

Possible Starts
RB Travis Henry
TE Jay Riemersma

Only in a Pinch
WR Josh Reed
WR Jerry Porter
RB Tyrone Wheatley

Final Thoughts: While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills pull off an upset this week, the difference between the two defenses is too much to ignore. Both teams will score a bunch but the Raiders defense will do just enough to help them go to a solid 4-0 on the season.

Predicted Score:

Oakland Raiders 38 at Buffalo Bills 34

N.Y. Giants 2-2 at Dallas Cowboys 2-2

Game Forecast

The last six contests between these teams has been decided by 8 points or less with the N.Y. Giants winning four of those games. Both teams struggle on offense but have the ability to shut down an opponent with relentless defense. Kerry Collins has looked good at times this season and downright awful at others. The biggest concern for the Giants so far is his inability to get the ball into the end zone in 2002. The Giants have been pitiful in the red-zone and only have a handful of touchdowns after four games. They have the weapons on offense to get the job done and must have better production all around or it will end up a very long season in New York.

The Cowboys have rebounded nicely after week one’s embarrassment to the Texans. They have wins against the Titans and the Rams in the past three weeks and could surprisingly have a winning record after this week if they can continue to get timely scores on offense. Quincy Carter is still an erratic quarterback but has had two effective performances the past three weeks. He is still a CFL quarterback waiting to happen but it is nice for Cowboy fans to have something to cheer about. Joey Galloway is playing nice football for the team for the first time since they gave up the farm to get him a few years back. He looks like his former burst and acceleration has been rediscovered and that is wonderful news for the team. Emmitt Smith looks washed up and it is only the looming all-time rushing record keeping him in the game. I believe the team will go with Troy Hambrick more and more once Smith gets the record.

- The Cowboys are 3-1 at home against the Giants since 1998 outscoring the Giants 75 to 54

- These two teams have gone 4-4 against each other since 1998

The Giants Notes:

· Kerry Collins has only 1 touchdown pass so far this season. With decent talent around him, that is not good enough

· Tiki Barber has been solid with 388 total yards and 2 touchdowns in the four games.

· Amani Toomer has 358 receiving yards in 4 games but no touchdown receptions.

The Cowboys Notes:

- WR Joey Galloway is listed as questionable with a thumb sprain

· Quincy Carter has been streaky but does have two good games so far and has thrown only 3 interceptions.

· Emmitt Smith is fading. 236 rushing yards and 0 touchdowns on the season.

· Joey Galloway has re-emerged as a threat with 254 yards receiving on a poor passing team.

Must Starts
TE Jeremy Shockey

Possible Starts
QB Kerry Collins
RB Tiki Barber
WR Amani Toomer
WR Ike Hilliard

Only in a Pinch
RB Emmitt Smith
WR Antonio Bryant
WR Joey Galloway (listed as ?)
QB Quincy Carter

Final Thoughts: The defenses on both teams are likely to carry the play in this one. Turnovers will likely decide which team goes to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are a little more talented on offense so I will pick them to win in Dallas.

Predicted Score:

New York Giants 16 at Dallas Cowboys 13

Washington Redskins 1-2 at Tennessee Titans 1-3

Game Forecast

Two disappointing teams hook up in Tennessee this weekend and both need a win or the season could get ugly in a hurry. Head coach of the Redskins, Steve Spurrier has had a rude awakening since his opening day victory against the Cardinals. I can picture him tossing around in bed moaning, “Why in the hell did I think that Matthews/Wuerffel could be legitimate pro quarterbacks? How could I be so foolish? Stupid.. Stupid… Stupid!” He is discovering that making plays at the collegiate level is much different than making them in the NFL. I believe in Spurrier and he’ll get this team pointed in the right direction down the road, but it is unlikely that either one of those quarterbacks will be around when he does make the team competitive. I think the biggest concern in Washington has to be the play of the defense, which has the talent to be playing much better than they have been. For the Redskins to begin winning, they need the defense to play dominating football to take pressure off of the offense until they find a groove. This week the team is probably starting Danny Wuerrffel with rookie Patrick Ramsey in as the backup for the first time as a pro. However there are rumblings that the rookie slinger is going to get the chance to showcase what he can do this weekend for the team. If you have a Redskin quarterback, I would shy away from starting any of them this week until you know for sure who is under the helm.

The Titans believed they had the talent and experience to contend for a divisional title this year but after winning week one have had their hopes and dreams smashed with three consecutive losses including last weekends embarrassment to the Raiders. I am sure Spurrier saw the Raiders move the ball up and down the field with ease against the Titans and will be out to showcase his “Fun N’ Gun” this week. The Titans are a better team than 1-3 though and should be able to knock off the Redskins in Tennessee this weekend. The biggest concern for the Titans has to be the injury to Derrick Mason. He is lost for a few weeks and it will be up to players such as Kevin Dyson and Eddie George to pick up the slack and help the team overcome the loss. I expect to see a lot of Eddie George and the best performance to date of Steve McNair this weekend in front of their home crowd.

- The Redskins haven’t played the Titans since 1997. The Skins lost 27 to 14.

The Redskins Notes:

- K Brett Conway is out for the season.

· Danny Wuerrffel has 2 interceptions on only 11 attempts so far. It’s a long way from Florida.

· Stephen Davis needs the ball more often. He has been very effective when given the chance.

· Rod Gardner has slumped along with the entire team the past 2 games. Needs to improve on his 210 receiving yards.

The Titans Notes:

- WR Derrick Mason is out

· Steve McNair is on pace for 4000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns but hasn’t been running with the football like in years past.

· Eddie George is running for under 3 yards per carry but does have 4 touchdowns to date.

· With Derrick Mason out, Kevin Dyson will need to improve on his pathetic 111 yards receiving.

Must Starts
RB Stephen Davis
RB Eddie George
QB Steve McNair
WR Rod Gardner
TE Frank Wycheck

Possible Starts
WR Kevin Dyson
WR Justin McCareins

Only in a Pinch
WR Drew Bennett
WR Kevin Lockett
WR Derrius Thompson

Final Thoughts: I cannot see the Titans losing four games in a row. Last year the Titans had three embarrassing road losses on the season against the Ravens, Steelers and Vikings where they lost by a total of 64 points. After each of those losses, the team rebounded at home with a win against good competition. The Titans will win this game.

Predicted Score:

Washington Redskins 17 at Tennessee Titans 27

Cincinnati Bengals 0-4 at Indianapolis Colts 2-1

Game Forecast

I hear the Bengals are starting David Klingler this week to see if he can make a difference. If he doesn’t work this week, perhaps Boomer Esiason will agree to come back or Kenny Anderson will lace his boots up for the first time in two decades. This team is in complete chaos and they are not only losing each week but getting crushed on the football field. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts win by 40 this week. Start all of your Colt players and reap the benefits. Corey Dillon is due for a big game so start him if you have him on your team. It is time for one of his monster games but it won’t be enough to get the Bengals a victory.

- The Colts have gone 2-0 against the Bengals since 1998, outscoring them 70 to 36.

- The Bengals have only won 2 games against non-divisional opponents while on the road since 1998.

The Bengals Notes:

· The quarterback carousel has resulted in 2 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions

· Corey Dillon is frustrated and ineffective with only 243 rushing yards on 70 carries and 0 touchdowns.

· All the Bengal receivers have been disappointing led by Peter Warrick and his brutal 123 yards receiving.

The Colts Notes:

· Peyton Manning is off to another great start with 772 yards passing and 6 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions.

· Edgerrin James has 447 yards total offense in only 3 games. 0 touchdowns to date but that will change.

· Marvin Harrison has 288 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

Must Starts
QB Peyton Manning
RB Edgerrin James
WR Marvin Harrison
WR Qadry Ismail
TE Marcus Pollard
RB Corey Dillon

Possible Starts
WR Reggie Wayne

Only in a Pinch
WR Peter Warrick
QB Jon Kitna
WR TJ Houshmandzadeh

Final Thoughts: The Bungles continue their sad-sack ways. I am embarrassed to say I thought this team could post a .500 record or better this season coming out of training camp. The team has talent on both sides of the ball but cannot overcome the “loser label”. Take heart though Bengal fans as I remember when it was the Buccaneers who lost year after year with no hope of improvement. One good coach and some good decisions helped to pull the Buccaneers up into contention and it is possible the same could happen to the Bengals. The best thing the Bengals could do this year is continuing to lose and then draft a good quarterback in next season’s NFL Draft.

Predicted Score:

Cincinnati Bengals 17 at Indianapolis Colts 41

New England Patriots 3-1 at Miami Dolphins 3-1

Game Forecast

Game of the week. Heck this is the Game of the Year so far in 2002.

Both teams stumbled on the road last week against AFC West teams but that was likely due to both teams looking ahead to this epic contest in Miami. The difference between 4-1 and 3-2 is massive at this point in the season and both teams will be laying it all out on the line this weekend. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense have been potent in the passing attack and the Chiefs exposed some big weaknesses in the Dolphins pass defense a week ago. Trent Green absolutely lit up the Dolphins secondary and it resulted in the Chiefs dismantling the Fish. However the Dolphins are usually a strong pass covering team and will likely be much better this week with proper focus and determination.

The key match-up of the game seems to be the re-vitalized Ricky Williams going up against the Patriots run defense. In the past two weeks both Priest Holmes and Ladainian Tomlinson ran wild against the Patriots and if Williams can find room to run this week, the Dolphins will win this going away. The Patriots will want to stop him and will likely crowd as many players into the box as possible. The Dolphins will have to get the ball downfield when the Patriots do this and it will be up to Fiedler to prove he can throw the ball more than 20 yards down the field without having the ball flutter like a leaf on a stormy day.

The Patriots will continue to do what has worked so far on offense. With a running attack that is average at best, the team will likely throw the ball over 40 times once again. The under-rated receiving core continues to excel each week. Rookie receiver Deion Branch landing into the perfect situation for his skills and he is reaping the benefits. Quarterback Tom Brady has the confidence to get him the ball and he’ll continue to put up nice numbers on a consistent basis. He is going to break the rookie record for receptions if he keeps it up.

- The Dolphins have won the past four games in Miami by a combined score of 79 to 39.

- The Dolphins have won six of the past eight games against the Patriots

The Patriots Notes:

- WR Troy Brown still listed as questionable.
- TE Daniel Graham is questionable

· Tom Brady’s arm may fall off. He has thrown 185 passes in only 4 games. An outstanding 11 touchdown passes to date.

· Antowain Smith has been quiet with only 311 total yards and 1 touchdown.

· Rookie sensation Deion Branch now has an amazing 28 receptions and 2 touchdowns on the season. On pace for 112 receptions.

The Dolphins Notes:

· Jay Fiedler needs a lead to be effective. He cannot throw the ball down the field with any degree of success.

· Ricky Williams continues to be on fire. 605 total yards and 5 touchdowns on the season so far.

· Chris Chambers is having a disappointing season thanks to Fiedler. Only 228 receiving yards on the year.

Must Starts
RB Ricky Williams
QB Tom Brady
TE Randy McMichael
WR Deion Branch

Possible Starts
WR Chris Chambers
WR Troy Brown
WR David Patten
RB Antowain Smith
QB Jay Fiedler

Only in a Pinch
RB Kevin Faulk
WR Donald Hayes
TE Christian Fauria

Final Thoughts: Expect an epic battle between these two proud football teams. Both will be upset over their performance this week and will be out for blood on Sunday. A divisional rivalry between two good teams bound for the playoffs, it should be one of the best games of the season so far. The Dolphins have beat up on the Patriots each of the past four meetings between the teams in Miami but this game will be very close and could swing either way. I have to go with my Dolphins to squeak out a victory this week. Is it a homer pick? Yes, perhaps it is but an educated one with the way Ricky Williams is running the ball.

Predicted Score:

New England Patriots 24 at Miami Dolphins 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2 at New Orleans Saints 3-1

Game Forecast

Will the Steelers go with Tommy Maddox this weekend? It sounds like it may indeed happen but head coach Bill Cowher has bucked popular opinion and gone with Kordell Stewart in the past. However last weekend, Maddox came into the game and re-energized the offense which looked crisp and effective for the first time this season. The news coming out of Pittsburgh is that both Stewart and Cowher met privately and the coach told him he would be sitting on the bench. I believe it is time for the Steelers to sit Stewart out of the action and see what Maddox can do for the team. However I am pretty sure that Mr. Cowher doesn’t care what one spit what I believe and will do whatever the heck he wants to.

I am pleased to say that there was a Plaxico Burress sighting last weekend and he appeared to be in good spirits. His picture has been removed from the side of milk cartons and hopefully he will continue to put up fantasy points for frustrated fantasy owners this weekend. His best chance for success comes with a quarterback change and with that unlikely to happen, owners of Mr. Burress will simply have to hope that Stewart finds his “A” game this weekend. Jerome Bettis has been almost invisible this season and it shouldn’t be long before Amos Zereoue begins to get more and more work for the team.

The Saints are a strange team to figure out. Are they as good as their first three games would indicate when they beat up on three good teams in the Packers, Bears and Buccaneers? Or are they as bad as they looked last week against a team many regarded as the worst in the NFL when the Lions beat them up in all aspects of the football game. The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. Not many folks remember that the Saints also started the season 3-1 last year and went home where they could cement their solid start by beating up on a weak Falcons team in week five. The Saints lost that game and it was a sign of things to come as their season crumbled around them. Deuce McAllister has had a solid start for the team but will not find much room to run against a good Steelers defense. The Steelers pass defense shortcomings appear to have been corrected following a great performance against the Browns and that should help them to contain the capable Saints passing attack.

- The Steelers and the Saints haven’t met on the field since 1993 when the Steelers spanked the Saints 37 to 14.

The Steelers Notes:

- RB Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala is out

· Tommy Maddox guided the Steelers to a late victory last week. He completed 11 of 13 passes on the day.

· Jerome Bettis has a flat tire. Only 100 yards rushing on 32 carries thus far. Look for more Amos Zereoue.

· Hines Ward is off to a great start with 286 receiving yards in 3 games.

· Plaxico Burress emerged with a great game last week.

The Saints Notes:

WR Donte Stallworth is out this week with injury
WR Joe Horn is on the injury report (probable)

· Aaron Brooks struggled against the Lions but still has a solid 979 passing yards and 9 touchdowns

· Deuce McAllister is off to a fine start with 463 total yards and 3 touchdowns.

· Rookie receiver Donte Stallworth is a great weapon. 4 touchdowns in as many weeks.

Must Starts
QB Aaron Brooks
WR Joe Horn

Possible Starts
QB Tommy Maddox
RB Deuce McAllister
WR Hines Ward
WR Plaxico Burress

Only in a Pinch
WR Donte Stallworth
WR Jerome Pathon
WR Antwaan Randle El
RB Jerome Bettis
RB Amos Zereoue


Final Thoughts: The Saints look like they should win this football game but I flash back to week five last year and I see some startling comparisons. The Steelers are better than their start indicates and they have a good shot at upsetting the Saints this week.

Predicted Score:

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at New Orleans Saints 17

Arizona Cardinals 2-2 at Carolina Panthers 3-1

Game Forecast

O.K. here is my official apology to Panther fans. I was giving the Panthers a hard time in my first few columns of the season but after watching them damn near knock off the Packers in Green Bay this week, I have become a believer (of sorts anyways). The Panthers defense featuring Dan Morgan, Deon Grant and Julius Peppers is for real and will continue to play outstanding football all season. I am amazed with the start that Lamar Smith has had with the team. He was a good running back in Miami but has been outstanding for the Panthers so far this season. Their 3-1 start is well justified and they should continue to battle hard each week.

The Cardinals have gone a surprising 2-2 so far this season and that is with David Boston having a slow start and Jake Plummer being downright awful to start the year. They have won with optimistic defense and a good rushing attack for the first time in many seasons. The Cardinals will be in tough this week though because they can be exploited on the ground, which should mean good things for Lamar Smith and the Panthers. David Boston is due to break out and it could happen this week but the Panthers have been playing outstanding defense, which will make that very difficult.

- The Cardinals stomped on the Panthers in week 16 last year, 30 to 7 in their first match-up since 1995

The Cardinals Notes:

- RB Thomas Jones is listed as questionable this weekend.

- RB Marcel Shipp is doubtful for this weekend.

· Jake Plummer has been disappointing. He has completely barely over 50 % of his passes.

· Thomas Jones is fighting off injury but has been effective on the season with 341 total yards and a touchdown.

· David Boston has been good but not great. 262 receiving yards and a touchdown to start the year.

The Panthers Notes:

- WR Muhsin Muhammad is doubtful to play this weekend.

· Rodney Peete has discovered the fountain of Youth. 869 passing yards and most importantly only 2 interceptions.

· Lamar Smith looks 24 again. He has put up 456 total yards and an impressive 6 touchdowns.

· Steve Smith has begun to be a real threat at receiver. He has 306 receiving yards so far.

Must Starts
RB Lamar Smith
WR David Boston
TE Freddie Jones
TE Wesley Walls

Possible Starts
RB Thomas Jones (questionable)
WR Steve Smith
QB Rodney Peete

Only in a Pinch
QB Jake Plummer
WR Isaac Byrd
WR Martay Jenkins
WR Frank Sanders

Final Thoughts: If the Panthers win this game, they will leap out to a stellar 4-1 record and have a solid opportunity to compete for playoff positions come January. Nobody expected this Rodney Peete led team to be so competitive this season but the defense looks so strong that anything could be possible for this team. Kudos to the entire Panthers organization. You guys have done a great job.

Predicted Score:

Arizona Cardinals 10 at Carolina Panthers 21

Kansas City Chiefs 2-2 at N.Y. Jets 1-3

Game Forecast

This game is a reflection of opposites. The Chiefs are a team that can score at will while the Jets are a squad with no will to score. The Jets have been getting pummeled the past three weeks and have looked inept and hopeless during that stretch. Vinny Testaverde’s career has come to a close with the Jets deciding to go with Chad Pennington this week over the experienced Testaverde. He may see the field once again if Pennington completely collapses but the Jets are looking towards the future already after only four games. It is a good week for Pennington to start because the Chiefs defense, while game and enthusiastic, does have holes to exploit with smart offensive football. Pennington should have some success this week, which would cement his starting role for the rest of the season.

The Chiefs are a team on the way up. The Trent Green led offense is beginning to round into form and they have both the top tight end and top running back in the game today. Johnnie Morton finally scored a touchdown last week and that is huge news for a Chiefs team that has been getting little to no production from the receiver position. If Morton begins to get hot, this Chiefs team could end up the top offense in the league this year and will be in the fight for a playoff spot. The Jets have been horrible in stopping the run and that could result in the third monster week for Priest Holmes in the first five games of the season. He has been the fantasy MVP so far after four games.

- The Jets are 2-0 against the Chiefs since 1998, scoring 47 points and giving up 24.

The Chiefs Notes:

· Trent Green has emerged as the star quarterback. 10 touchdowns against 5 interceptions on the season.

· Priest Holmes is amazing. 570 total yards and 8 touchdowns already on the season.

· Who needs training camp? Tony Gonzalez shredded the Dolphins and now has 5 touchdowns on the season.

The Jets Notes:

- Vinny Testaverde is listed as out this week (would have been benched anyways)

- Wayne Chrebet is listed as doubtful this week.

· A new era has arrived. Chad Pennington is in at quarterback after throwing for 352 yards (0 touchdowns though) last week.

· Curtis Martin is hurting and ineffective with only 98 rushing yards on the season.

· Wayne Chrebet is the leading receiver so far with 197 yards and a touchdown.

Must Starts
QB Trent Green
RB Priest Holmes
RB Curtis Martin?
TE Tony Gonzalez
WR Laveranues Coles
TE Anthony Becht

Possible Starts
QB Chad Pennington
RB Lamont Jordan
WR Johnnie Morton
WR Eddie Kennison

Only in a Pinch
WR Dante Hall
WR Santana Moss


Final Thoughts: The Chiefs are on the way up the Power Rankings while the Jets are quickly fading into the sunset. Huge game for the Chiefs to pull themselves into early playoff contention. A 2-3 hole in the competitive AFC will be hard to overcome.

Predicted Score:

Kansas City Chiefs 37 at New York Jets 24

San Diego Chargers 4-0 at Denver Broncos 3-1

Game Forecast

The best team in the NFL is the… San Diego Chargers? Who thought that possible going into this season? The Chargers are winning by playing conservative ball featuring a strong running attack led by Ladainian Tomlinson and a very good defensive effort each week. I must admit that I didn’t think the Chargers would be leading the AFC West after four weeks led by a young quarterback in Drew Brees with little experience. Receiver Curtis Conway has been on fire for the team and looks like he will continue the hot pace all season long. The Chargers appear to be for real and get an excellent test this week by going into Denver to play the Broncos who have to be an angry team this week after last week’s crappy effort against the Ravens.

The Broncos have owned the Chargers in Denver the past 7 years winning all but one game in that span. The Broncos are a similar team to the Chargers featuring a stellar defense (last week’s effort against the Ravens withstanding) and a good rushing attack. Brian Griese has been solid this season and will need to be on the top of his game this week to knock off the undefeated Chargers. This should be an outstanding contest.

- The Chargers have only won 1 of the past 7 games played in Denver.

- The Broncos have won 6 of the past 8 against the Chargers.

The Chargers Notes:

· Drew Brees has been solid. Only 608 passing yards on the season but very few mistakes so far.

· Ladainian Tomlinson is even better than last year. 602 total yards and 5 touchdowns already.

· Curtis Conway is playing great. 4 touchdowns already on the season.

The Broncos Notes:

- RB Mike Anderson is listed as questionable this week.

· Brian Griese has been decent but needs to improve his consistency. He does have 860 passing yards and 7 touchdown passes.

· Clinton Portis is getting more playing time. He has 204 yards rushing on only 35 carries.

· Rod Smith is still getting the job done with 224 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns.

Must Starts
RB Ladainian Tomlinson
WR Curtis Conway
WR Rod Smith

Possible Starts
QB Brian Griese
QB Drew Brees
RB Clinton Portis
WR Ed McCaffrey
TE Shannon Sharpe

Only in a Pinch
RB Mike Anderson (listed as questionable)
RB Olandis Gary
WR Tim Dwight
TE Stephen Alexander

Final Thoughts: A very important AFC West tilt between two good football teams. The Broncos need to win this game or they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the talented Raiders/Chargers teams. Broncos will get the victory on this day.

Predicted Score:

San Diego Chargers 14 at Denver Broncos 21

St. Louis Rams 0-4 at San Francisco 49ers 2-1

Game Forecast

One of the surprise hits of the football season has been the sleeper movie that took everyone by surprise “The Silencing of the Lambs”. It is a creepy movie that has twists around every corner and leaves the viewer speechless and shaken. Starring the infamous Bad Thumb and a guest appearance from Broken Pinky, football fans have been heard either laughing hysterically or sobbing uncontrollably after viewing this train wreck a short four weeks ago. The prequels to this flick, “The Greatest Show on Turf I, II, III” were great action adventures full of flair and good cheer. This latest go-around, directed by Mr. Mike Martz has been more of a melodramatic suspense with a touch of horror movie dashed in for good measure. The scene where a certain player named Warner breaks his pinky allowing the hated Cowboys to storm his place and beat up on his friends was especially chilling. Stay tuned for more reviews of this entertaining saga…

Fast Forward to this week’s upcoming game.

The 49ers are well rested, hungry and determined to create even more space between themselves and the 0-4 Rams. The 49ers have to be very happy with their position right now because they have gone 2-1 on the season despite a slow start by the offense. Jeff Garcia and the boys know they can pretty much eliminate the once powerful Rams from contention with a focused effort this week. I look for Terrell Owens to have his first excellent receiving performance of the season and Jeff Garcia to begin playing like the quarterback who dominated the NFL the last two seasons. The Rams have owned the season series against the Niners, winning each of the past six contests including the last three in San Francisco by a total of 30 points.

The Rams looked awful with the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys who are a brutal team on the road. Feel that wood underneath you Rams? That is the bottom of the barrel and you are firmly seated against it. Rams fans are ready to bring out the old paper bags that used to be so common during Ram home games and the season will be pretty much over for the team if they cannot find a way to beat the Niners this weekend. Starting the season at 0-5 would mean lights out in St. Louis.

With Kurt Warner out for a minimum of eight weeks, Jamie Martin will get the opportunity to come in and right the sinking ship. The Rams still have offensive weapons that can get the job done but head coach Mike Martz will need to realize that this team needs a healthy dose of Marshall Faulk rushing the football if they are to begin getting some wins and pulling themselves back into the playoff picture. I expect the Rams defense to come out and play good football against a strong divisional opponent. Expect the Rams to play with a ton of determination and pull out all the stops hoping to pull out of the funk they are in.

- The Rams have won the past 3 games in San Francisco by a combined score of 87 to 57.

- The Rams have won 6 in a row against the 49ers going back to 1998.

The Rams Notes:

- QB Kurt Warner out

- OT Orlando Pace is out

- CB Aeneas Williams is listed as questionable

· Jamie Martin threw for 262 yards in relieve of the injured Kurt Warner last week.

· Marshall Faulk has 409 total yards and 4 touchdowns so far in a down season for his standards.

· Isaac Bruce has 234 yards and a touchdown while Torry Holt has 424 yards but 0 touchdowns to date.

The 49ers Notes:

· Jeff Garcia is off to a slow start. Only 455 yards passing and 2 touchdown passes in 3 games.

· Garrison Hearst has 207 total yards and 1 TD / Kevan Barlow has 217 total yards and 1 TD

· Terrell Owens has slow flashes but where is the receptions? Only 11 receptions on the season.

Must Starts
QB Jeff Garcia
RB Marshall Faulk
WR Terrell Owens
WR Torry Holt
WR Isaac Bruce
TE Eric Johnson

Possible Starts
QB Jamie Martin
RB Garrison Hearst
RB Kevan Barlow
TE Ernie Conwell

Only in a Pinch
WR J.J. Stokes
WR Ricky Proehl

Final Thoughts: I am looking forward to this game. Should be lots of emotion, animosity and big plays as two teams that don’t like each other try to get out of the offensive funk they have been in so far. The Rams season hangs in the balance as the final nail is hanging poised above the coffin. If that nail gets driven down this weekend, the once-mighty Lambs will be no more.

Predicted Score:

St. Louis Rams 21 at San Francisco 49ers 27

Philadelphia Eagles 3-1 at Jacksonville Jaguars 2-1

Game Forecast

The Eagles look like the best team in the NFC right now led by the 100 million dollar man, Donovan McNabb. With the quarterback position squared away for the next decade, the Eagles are now out to add some Championship glory to their mantle. This is an excellent test for the Eagles this week going up against a Jaguars team that has been playing very good football to start the season. This team was a contender two seasons ago but has been dismantled after running into salary cap difficulty. However they still have offensive weapons such as Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith and a healthy Fred Taylor who is once again destroying opposing defenses. What makes Taylor’s performance so far even more impressive is that he is doing it behind an offensive line that is not considered to be very effective. With Taylor healthy, the Jaguars can beat up on any team at any time and they will likely give the Eagles a great game this Sunday.

The Eagles finally get a test after three straight cream puffs on the schedule (O.K. the Redskins are probably not a cream puff but they sure looked like it week two). Going into Jacksonville and getting a victory is never easy and it will be especially difficult this week against a team with lots of momentum and confidence. The Eagles however are focused and want to have the best record in the NFC this year so all playoff roads will go through Philly this year. That means they will likely keep their focus and determination all season long and should be ready to do well this week. Look for another super performance by McNabb this week as he continues to get stronger and stronger every week.

- The last meeting was in 1997 when the Jaguars beat up on the Eagles, 38 to 21.

The Eagles Notes:

· Donovan McNabb is an MVP candidate. He has thrown 9 touchdown passes and ran for 2 more.

· Duce Staley has been effective with 314 total yards and 3 touchdowns so far.

· James Thrash has been terrific for the team with 264 receiving yards with 4 touchdowns.

The Jaguars Notes:

· Mark Brunell has had only 1 interception in the first 3 games along with 4 touchdown passes.

· Fred Taylor has been unstoppable. 514 total yards and 3 touchdowns.

· Jimmy Smith has been quiet so far with only 197 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Must Starts
QB Donovan McNabb
WR James Thrash
RB Fred Taylor
WR Jimmy Smith

Possible Starts
QB Mark Brunell
RB Duce Staley
WR Antonio Freeman
WR Todd Pinkston
TE Chad Lewis
TE Kyle Brady

Only in a Pinch
RB Stacey Mack
WR Bobby Shaw
WR Pat Johnson
RB Brian Westbrook
RB Dorsey Levens

Final Thoughts: This game should be a close one. The Jaguars are playing very effective football and will give the Eagles their first real test since week one. The Eagles were already surprised once on the road by an AFC team and that will help them show up with determination and desire as they pull off a close victory to run their record to a solid 4-1.

Predicted Score:

Philadelphia Eagles 21 at Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Baltimore Ravens 1-2 at Cleveland Browns 2-2

Game Forecast

The Ravens have risen from the ashes after two horrible games to start the year. The way they dismantled the Broncos was impressive and they’ll be out to dominate two weeks in a row. The Browns are hot and cold and the passing attack disappointed last week in Pittsburgh after three strong showings. I expect Tim Couch and boys to come out with a much more effective passing attack in this week’s game. The Browns have lost two games in the dying moments of the football game and could easily be 4-0 this season with a little more desire at the end of the game.

The Ravens offense looked strong last week but don’t expect them to put up 30+ points on a consistent basis. It was encouraging for Raven fans to see both Chris Redman and Todd Heap finally get the monkey off of their back though. Both need experience to improve because the talent is there and last week’s confidence boost against the Broncos will help them out a lot. Jamal Lewis is running the ball well for the team and is starting to gain confidence once again. He is a talented running back if he can stay healthy.

- The Ravens lost to the Browns in Cleveland last season 24 to 14.

The Ravens Notes:

· Chris Redman finally had some success. Now has 3 touchdowns on the season and only 2 interceptions.

· Jamal Lewis looks healthy and strong at tailback. 287 total yards and a touchdown.

· Todd Heap had his break out performance. Now he has 124 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Browns Notes:

· Tim Couch struggled against the Steelers last weekend. He needs to do better this week or the team may look at Holcombe.

· Jamal White is doing well. He has 342 total yards / 1 touchdown and reminds me of Priest Holmes while in Baltimore.

· Quincy Morgan has all but disappeared from the offense after his huge week one receiving.

Must Starts
TE Todd Heap
WR Kevin Johnson

Possible Starts
QB Tim Couch
WR Andre Davis
RB Jamal Lewis

Only in a Pinch
RB Jamal White
QB Chris Redman
WR Quincy Morgan
WR Travis Taylor
WR Brandon Stokley

Final Thoughts: The Browns should have enough to knock off the Ravens in Cleveland.

Predicted Score:

Baltimore Ravens 13 at Cleveland Browns 17

Monday Night Football

Green Bay Packers 3-1 at Chicago Bears 2-2

Game Forecast

Talk about a great Monday Night Football game. Just say the names Packers and Bears and great images of the past flood into memory. This truly is a magical rivalry and to see it come to life on Monday Night Football is a great thing. The Packers have beat the Bears eight straight times in Chicago going way back to the 1993 campaign. That is a long, brutal streak but something tells me that the streak won’t reach nine this year. The Bears have lost two games in a row and our too proud to see it reach three this week. The two teams match up well. Both have good running backs and solid defenses (although the Packers have displayed cracks in the armor). The Bears have a great receiver in Marty Booker while the Packers have one of the best all-time quarterbacks in Brett Favre. Expect a close, hard fought game where perhaps a late turnover forced by the Bears will turn the tide and give them a late victory. One thing is almost certain when the Bears play. The game will be decided in the fourth quarter. Look for a good game from both Marty Booker and Anthony Thomas as the Packers defense hasn’t been as good as many thought it could be this year (including myself I am sad to say).

On another note, how about David Terrell and his penchant for catching touchdown passes. Is he reminding anyone else of a young Cris Carter during his days with the Eagles? He will certainly be on my list for 3^rd year breakout receivers next year if he doesn’t have it happen this year. He is ready to begin catching a lot of passes. Oh and I am sorry I didn’t tell you guys that Bubba Franks would throw a touchdown pass in last week’s game. I certainly should have seen that coming <grin>.

- The Bears have lost 8 straight home games to the Packers going back to 1993.

- The Packers are 6-2 against the Bears since 1998.

The Packers Notes:

- TE’s Bubba Frank and David Martin are listed as questionable

- WR Terry Glenn is listed as questionable

· Brett Favre is on pace for 4444 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. Doesn’t he ever age?

· Ahman Green has 412 total yards but surprisingly has 0 touchdowns on the year killing fantasy owners all over the globe.

· Donald Driver is the go-to receiver for the team. 320 receiving yards and a stellar 4 touchdown receptions.

The Bears Notes:

· Jim Miller isn’t flashy but gets the job done. 864 passing yards with 7 touchdown passes.

· Anthony Thomas isn’t explosive but is effective. He has 288 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns. Needs to improve his average though.

· Marty Booker has remained on fire this year. Has 425 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on the season.

· David Terrell is a young Cris Carter. He has 3 touchdowns on only 6 receptions.

Must Starts
WR Marty Booker
RB Anthony Thomas
QB Brett Favre
RB Ahman Green
WR Donald Driver

Possible Starts
QB Jim Miller
WR Terry Glenn (listed as questionable)

Only in a Pinch
WR Dez White
WR Marcus Robinson
WR David Terrell
WR Robert Ferguson
TE Bubba Franks (listed as questionable)
TE David Martin (listed as questionable)



Final Thoughts: The Packers and Bears collide once again. This will be an entertaining, hard-hitting, fan friendly football game so grab a cold one, invite some friends over and enjoy football the way it is meant to be. Bears win late (what else is new)

Predicted Score:

Green Bay Packers 21 at Chicago Bears 24