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Week 8 |
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2002
Forecaster record to date:� 58 wins
against 44 losses. This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not
correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website. SUNDAY, October 27th On Bye �Green Bay, Miami,
San Diego, St. Louis� Detroit Lions 2-4 at Buffalo Bills 4-3
Game Forecast Don�t look now but the Buffalo Bills are ahead
of the New England Patriots in the standings.�
The offense continues to grow stronger each week and Travis Henry has
emerged as a legitimate fantasy threat each week.� He ran well against the strong Dolphins defense and cemented his
place as a �Must Start� player each week.�
Peerless Price was quiet last week so expect a huge game out of him this
week against a poor Detroit Lions secondary.�
What is encouraging for the Bills is the defense, which is slowly
getting stronger.� They don�t need the
defensive unit to be great each week as long as they can make some key stops
during critical times of the game. The
Lions started slowly this season but are turning around their fortunes behind
the young passing arm of rookie quarterback Joey Harrington who continues to
improve every game he plays.� He makes
some mistakes on the field but is making big plays and helping a team most thought
to be one of the worst teams in the NFL to win games on Sundays.� James Stewart finally broke out with a big
game last week and perhaps that is the start of a good stretch for him.� He certainly should find some room to run
against the Bills rush defense.� The
weak point of the Lions is in the secondary where they have a problem stopping
the pass.� That is a major concern
against the best passing team in the NFL.�
They will have a horrible time containing Eric Moulds, Peerless Price
and Josh Reed. Must Starts: Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric
Moulds, Peerless Price, James Stewart Possible Starts: Joey Harrington, A.Z.
Hakim Only in a Pinch: Josh Reed, Jay Riemersma,
Larry Centers, Mikhael Ricks (?) Final Thoughts:� The Lions are improving but the Bills offense will roll on this weekend.� Bills win big. Predicted
Score: Lions 17 at Bills 37 Tennessee Titans 2-4 at Cincinnati Bengals 0-6
Game Forecast Two disappointing teams collide in Cincinnati
this weekend.� The Titans have looked
good at times during this season and awful at others.� They have a huge win against the Eagles under their belt as well
as an embarrassing loss to the Redskins in Tennessee.� The Titans needed a bye to try and correct the problems that
plague this team on both sides of the ball and to get healthy.� Not having Derrick Mason in the starting
lineup the past two outings has really caused difficulties with the passing
attack of the team that has been dumping the ball off to the tight ends and
running backs far too often. Steve McNair hasn�t been running with the ball as
often this year, which hurts his fantasy value quite a bit.� The Titans need Eddie George to find the
form he had two seasons ago.� He
displayed some of the power and ability he once had two weeks ago against the Jaguars
and will need to run well for this team to have a chance to win on a consistent
basis.� The teams biggest concern is
once again the secondary that has been brutal in 2002 including an embarrassing
performance against the Redskins rookie quarterback who lit them up like a
Christmas tree. What can you say about the state of affairs in Cincinnati?� The Bengals are truly an awful football team and they are beginning to fragment.� Corey Dillon is fed up with playing with the sad-sack Bengals and wants out of the city on the first train he can board.� He is even threatening to retire if something doesn�t happen to improve the team in the very near future.� The quarterbacking situation is a joke but if there is ever a week where the Bengals can make something happen via the passing attack, it should be this week.� The receiving core has some talent but rarely make big plays happen on the football field.� Some of that is due to the quarterbacking, some is due to the play calling but big-name receivers always come through with big-play football games and the Bengals group simply doesn�t break many big plays.� The defense was supposed to be the strong point of the team this year but they have had problems in stopping both the run and the pass this season. Must Starts: Eddie George, Steve McNair, Frank
Wycheck, Corey Dillon Predicted
Score: Titans 20 at Bengals 14 Seattle Seahawks 1-5 at Dallas Cowboys 3-4
Game Forecast Despite having some good moments this season at
times, the Cowboys have given up on the erratic play of second year
quarterback, Quincy Carter (at least for now) and inserted Chad
Hutchinson.� Carter was up and down like
a yo-yo this season without question but had put up over 200 yards passing per
game and only 1 less touchdown than interception.� I am the first one to state that Carter isn�t a solid NFL
quarterback at this point in his development but it is very unlikely that Chad
Hutchinson is ready to be that guy for the team either.� He looked shake during the pre-season and
likely needs some more time to find his game after years in baseball.� Emmitt Smith is getting close to breaking
the all-time rushing record.� He could
do it this week against the poor Seahawks defense against the run by putting up
94 or more rushing yards.� I have a
feeling that this is the week he will get it done by rushing for over 100
yards.� The Cowboys defense has been
pretty strong this season but they can be beat via the passing game. The Seahawks continue to struggle behind the coaching of Mike Holmgren.� I said when the Hawks signed him that they would likely end up disappointed in the coach and that has certainly come true.� The true genius behind the rise of the Packers was Ron Wolf and not Holmgren who has yet to get the Seahawks to play solid football on a consistent basis.� The passing attack led by Trent Dilfer has been struggling but that is more due to the receivers dropping passes than poor play from the quarterback.� Last week alone there were 7 dropped passes that killed drives and forced the team to punt.� Players like Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson need to elevate their games and give the quarterback a chance to succeed.� Shaun Alexander has fallen back down to earth after his record-breaking performance against the Vikings a few weeks back.� He looked tentative with the ball last week and didn�t do much at all during the game.� The Hawks need him to run effectively to have a chance at winning each week.� The biggest concern in Seattle is in regards to the defense.� The play of the entire unit has been awful save for the hustle of the young linebacker from Harvard, Isaiah Kacyvenski who is all over the field.� Some folks have mouthed off this young player because of how far off the line of scrimmage he is making the tackle but that is because the defensive tackles are not keeping the blockers from getting up into his chest which forces him to shed a block before making the tackle.� I like this kid and he�ll be a fixture at linebacker with the team. Must Starts: Emmitt Smith Predicted
Score: Seahawks 24 at Cowboys 21 Oakland Raiders 4-2 at Kansas City Chiefs 3-4
Game Forecast This game should be explosive and fun to
watch.� It is certainly a very important
game for both teams so expect the Raiders and Chiefs to come out with a focus
and determined effort.� The Raiders need
to win after losing two games in a row while the Chiefs need to win if they
wish to make a run at a playoff spot this season.� Rich Gannon has been spectacular this season and is averaging a
stunning 341 yards passing per contest.�
The leading receiver is the immortal Jerry Rice who is on pace for a
staggering 1491 receiving yards this year.�
How old is this guy again?� Tim
Brown has been disappointing so far but he is also on pace for a thousand yard
campaign while Jerry Porter has emerged as a legitimate threat this season as
well with 347 receiving yards and a solid 4 touchdowns after 6 games.� The Raiders passing attack should dismantle
the Chiefs suspect defense in a big way this weekend. The Chiefs may be the best sub .500 team in the NFL but that isn�t going to help them if they cannot find a way to beat the excellent teams in their own division.� The Chiefs will be able to put up points on the Raiders but it is very unlikely they will be able to slow down the vaunted Raiders passing attack enough to come out with a win in this game.� Look for a healthy dose of Tony Gonzalez in this game and of course a large helping of Priest Holmes who simply is the best fantasy player in the NFL by a large margin this season.� He has become the Marshall Faulk of the NFL and it is crazy to think this guy wasn�t even drafted into the NFL.� How much are they paying NFL scouts?� He has put up 44 more fantasy points than his nearest competitor Ladainian Tomlinson. Must Starts: Rich Gannon, Charlie Garner, Jerry
Rice, Tim Brown, Jerry Porter, Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes Predicted
Score: Raiders 42 at Chiefs 38 Chicago Bears 2-4 at Minnesota Vikings 1-5
Game Forecast The Bears are falling fast and furious from the
playoff picture and this has become a must win for the team.� Fortunately they are playing the inept
Vikings who are looking weaker and weaker as the season rolls on.� The Bears are doing all right on offense
featuring a solid passing attack but the Bears running game has been a huge
disappointment.� Anthony Thomas has been
averaging a scant 3.1 yards per carry and that is not good enough to be an
every down running back.� When you look
at Ladainian Tomlinson averaging 4.5 yards per carry and Marshall Faulk
averaging 4.9 per carry it is no wonder why the Bears rushing game is under
attack.� Marty Booker has been
sensational this year and is on pace for 1546 receiving yards.� He is the main cog in the offensive attack
and will likely continue his great play.�
The big concern for the Bears is the collapse of the defense.� Last season, the Bears won with a solid
running game and a relentless, opportunistic defense that took over games and
dominated at times.� This season, that
same defense is having major problems stopping the opposition and the Bears are
not set up to out-score their opponents. What can be said about the sad-sack Vikings this season?� Mike Tice may be a nice guy but I have serious doubts about his ability to coach at the NFL level.� Daunte Culpepper looks lost, Randy Moss and his ratio have not worked out and the offensive scheme is puzzling.� The bad news is that even with all the problems just listed, the offense is heads and shoulders above the defensive unit that is in one word awful.� The Vikings give up a ton of points to all aspects of the opponent�s offensive arsenal.� No matter what team the Vikings play, it seems to be a smart play to start the quarterback, running back and receivers from that squad because of the Vikings inability to function on defense.� This looks like a really good play for Randy Moss against the poor Bear�s secondary but unfortunately he has had a number of these kinds of games already and isn�t putting up the huge numbers he has done in years past.� The running back tandem of Moe Williams and Michael Bennett is getting the job done for the team with an outstanding 4.5 rushing average and 7 touchdowns so far.� It is a frustrating duo for fantasy owners though because you never seem to know which one will put up the best numbers on any given week. Must Starts: Jim Miller, Anthony Thomas, Marty
Booker, Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss Predicted Score: Bears 28 at Vikings 24 Atlanta Falcons 3-3 at New Orleans Saints 6-1
Game Forecast The improving Falcons get a great test this
week when they fly into New Orleans to combat the Saints.� Michael Vick displayed the flash and
excitement that only he can last week when he ran for 91 yards and a touchdown
against the Panthers.� As he matures as
a quarterback, Vick is going to be the most exciting player in the NFL.� Atlanta fans have a lot to look forward to
in the future with this young superstar.�
The crowded running back situation has become a lot clearer in the past
two weeks.� T.J. Duckett has emerged as
the go-to runner while Warrick Dunn has been relegated to catching passes out
of the backfield.� Duckett is rushing
for a solid 4 yards per carry while Dunn is under the 3.0 mark.� Duckett is the type of power back that the
Falcons loved to utilize but unfortunately he is listed as doubtful to play
this week with a foot injury.� The
Falcons defense is getting stronger every week out and is giving up a stellar
15 points per contest.� As long as the
defense can keep up the strong play, this team should be able to compete for
one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC. The Saints win ugly some times but do they ever look for real.� Aaron Brooks has put the collapse of 2001 behind him and has this team rolling towards the playoffs.� Deuce McAllister continues to impress as a first-year starter and has now put up 721 rushing yards in only 7 games.� Even with Ricky Williams running so well for the Dolphins it is obvious that the Saints made the right decision for the team.� Brooks is on pace for 37 touchdown passes on the season and has become one of the best fantasy options week in and week out.� I am most impressed with his touchdown to interception ratio on the season and he has developed nicely as a top tier NFL quarterback.� Joe Horn continues to be an outstanding receiver and will likely end up with over 1400 yards receiver by seasons end with a double digit total in touchdown receptions.� The Saints defense is giving up a lot of yardage to opposing offenses but is doing enough to get the job done every week.� Must Starts: Aaron Brooks, Deuce McAllister, Joe
Horn, Michael Vick Predicted Score: Falcons 17 at Saints 24 Cleveland Browns 3-4 at New York Jets 2-4
Game Forecast Despite both of these teams playing
inconsistent and often quite terrible football so far in 2002, both could keep
playoff hopes distantly alive with a solid win this weekend.� The Jets have looked a lot better with Chad
Pennington taking the snaps with both his confidence and ability to get the
ball down the field.� He is still
inexperienced and may suffer through bad weeks but so far, everything has been
roses for this youngster.� Pennington
has completed almost 69 percent of his passes so far on the season since
replacing Vinny Testaverde.� The player
who stands to benefit the most from a more explosive passing attack is
Laveranues Coles who was being excluded too often with the short dump-off style
of Testaverde.� Now the receivers are
getting into the game and both Coles and Santana Moss have looked much
stronger.� Another player who has been
more effective the past couple of outings is Curtis Martin who was MIA the
first few weeks of the season.� He is
still ranked as only the 30th best fantasy running back so far but
has had two nice games in a row and appears to be out of his funk.� The Jets are absolutely horrid against the
run but that shouldn�t hurt them too much against the Browns who struggle to
run the football effectively. Tim Couch has been very erratic so far and will be in a fight for the starters job with the injured Kelly Holcombe if he doesn�t start to play with more consistency.� Holcombe had thrown for a solid 7.65 Y/A and an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 7-2 while Tim Couch is struggling along with a weak 5.6 Y/A and a 5-6 touchdown to interception ratio.� The fans will be screaming for Holcombe to get the starts when he�s healthy unless Couch begins to turn it around.� The Browns continue to try and force-feed rookie William Green the ball despite his terrible 2.2 yard per carry average.� The best running back on the roster by far is Jamel White who is averaging an outstanding 5.0 yards per carry and is excellent out of the backfield.� Why the team isn�t giving him the ball in his hands 25 times per game is beyond me.� He reminds me of a young Priest Holmes with his ability to makes things happen on the football field.� The receiving core has talent but the problem is trying to determine who will put up the fantasy numbers on a week-to-week basis. The defense for the Browns has been a major disappointment this season.� The unit was supposed to be the strong point of the team but instead it has often hurt the team with its inability to stop the rushing attack. Must Starts: Curtis Martin Predicted Score: Browns 17 at Jets 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2 at Carolina Panthers 3-4
Game Forecast Both of these teams feature strong defense and
conservative offensive attacks.� The
difference is one of these teams is going to be in the playoffs and one of them
is not as good as they appeared to be at the start of this season.� The team that is for real is the Buccaneers
who have perhaps the best defense in the entire NFL and probably the highest
scoring one as well thanks to Derrick Brooks and his 4 touchdowns.� In touchdown only leagues, Derrick Brooks is
tied with Fred Taylor and Stephen Davis and ahead of Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis,
Duce Staley and Edgerrin James.� Who
would have thought that possible?� With
Brad Johnson likely out for a couple of weeks, the better of the two Johnsons
gets the start this weekend.� Rob
Johnson may be made of glass but he has a lot of courage and could provide a
much-needed spark to an offensive team that has been sluggish and boring to
start the season.� The offense has not
made many big plays and has let the defense almost outscore them on the
season.� Michael Pittman has been a bust
on offense for the team with his 3.5 yard average and 0 touchdowns on the
season.� He is a good receiver out of
the backfield but the team needs either him or Mike Alstott to become a
legitimate rushing threat or there is no hope for a Buccaneers Super Bowl push
this year.� Teams like the Eagles and
Packers will beat up on the Buccaneers come playoff time if the team cannot
find some offense. The Panthers have come crashing back down to earth; reminisce of the 2001 Chargers team that started out so strong.� Lamar Smith was looking like a stud to start the season but has all but disappeared in the past few weeks with only 149 rushing yards on 51 carries with no touchdowns.� Hotshot rookie DeShaun Foster is almost back healthy and will be getting a look in the offense as soon as he can go.� The Panthers are now on their third quarterback this season and Randy Fasani is not ready to start in the NFL.� He has good athletic ability but is not good enough as a passer yet and the Buccaneers powerful defense will destroy the kid.� The Panthers defense is still strong but has been fighting both injuries and the offenses inability to move the ball the last few weeks. Must Starts: Keyshawn Johnson Predicted Score: Buccaneers 17 at Panthers 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-3 at Baltimore Ravens 3-3
Game Forecast Surprise Stat of the Week.� The Steelers have won each of the last four
games against the Ravens in Baltimore.�
Jerome Bettis is out for this game so all of the fantasy owners who have
Amos Zereoue on their rosters may finally get to utilize the talented
back.� The Ravens defense has been much
better than many thought it would be this year but they still can be run on and
Zereoue is an explosive player.� With
Tommy Maddox completing over 64 percent of his passes so far the starting job
appears to be his for the rest of the season and us Plaxico Burress owners
couldn�t be happier.� Burress continues
to put up solid numbers every week now and the bad start is a very distant
memory at this point.� He is now the 28th
best fantasy receiver despite being invisible the first two weeks of the
season.� The touchdown maker in
Pittsburgh is Hines Ward who is on pace for 16 scores by season end.� He gets a lot of looks when the Steelers are
on the other teams side of midfield and is a wonderful athlete.� The Steelers defense that was getting abused
to start the season has settled down and is beginning to play very strong
football.� The Steelers were counted out
after the first few games but guess what people.� The Steelers are back. The Ravens are a wonderful surprise this year.� Nobody expected this team to win many games this year but they are playing excellent all-around football led by the strong running from Jamal Lewis and opportunistic defensive play.� I am impressed with how well the defense has been with the leader, Ray Lewis on the sidelines each of the last two weeks.� He is a wonderful leader and is a major part of the teams success even stuck on the sidelines.� You can certainly tell that this team has become the Ray Lewis group.� Chris Redman is being cautious but is playing decent football and has developed a wonderful rapport with tight end Todd Heap who is the 4th best fantasy tight end so far this season and getting stronger as the year goes on. Must Starts: - Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Jamal
Lewis, Todd Heap Predicted Score: Steelers 23 at Ravens 17 Arizona Cardinals 4-2 at San Francisco 49ers 4-2
Game Forecast I thought there would be a terrific battle in
the NFC West this year to determine the divisional winner.� However I didn�t expect it to be the
Cardinals fighting the 49ers for the spot.��
I am not sure how the Cardinals continue to win every week but
congratulations to them on a solid 4-2 start.�
I don�t expect them to be near the top of the division by season end
though and this is the week they begin their descent.� Jake Plummer has been quite poor this year, David Boston has been
disappointing and the rushing attack has had injury after injury to worry
about.� It has been the defense in
Arizona that has won them football games and it has been a very long time since
we have said that about the Cardinals. The 49ers are clearly the better team here and will be out to make a statement to the rest of the division in this one.� I expect to see the 49ers best on both sides of the ball and a lopsided victory as a result.� Garrison Hearst is injured and may not be able to play this weekend.� That would make Kevan Barlow a very attractive option for fantasy owners this weekend. Must Starts: Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens, David
Boston Predicted Score: Cardinals 10 at 49ers 31 Denver Broncos 5-2 at New England Patriots 3-3
Game Forecast Talk about a must win football game.� The Patriots started the year so strong but
have collapsed over the last several weeks and are now in a must win
situation.� The offense that looked so
potent to start the year had many problems moving the ball in the last few
weeks.� Tom Brady has come back to earth
after a phenomenal beginning and the running attack for New England has been
non-existent.� Antowain Smith is only
carrying the ball 14 times per contest and teams have begun to cheat against
the pass, daring the Patriots to beat them via the ground game.� It will be interesting to see if there is a
change in offensive philosophy for the team this week or if they will continue
to pass 40 times per game.� Troy Brown
should be back healthy and the team should be ready to play hard at home this
week. The Broncos are a good solid football team.� Brian Griese has survived a near benching in week one to complete close to 65 percent of his passes and is on pace for 4300 yards passing.� Shannon Sharpe had the game of his career last week and leapfrogged up to # 3 in the fantasy rankings.� The running back situation is still quite unsettled at times between Clinton Portis and Mike Anderson but at least it appears that Olandis Gary has fallen out of favor helping us fantasy owners out when trying to determine our rosters.� The Broncos defense is very strong and will give the Patriots a great battle on the weekend.� I am looking forward to seeing if the Broncos defensive backs can play tight coverage on the speedy Patriot receivers. Must Starts: Tom Brady, Brian Griese, Rod Smith,
Clinton Portis, Shannon Sharpe Predicted Score: Broncos 17 at Patriots 20 Houston Texans 1-5 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3
Game Forecast The Texans play hard but are overmatched on a
weekly basis.� They are obviously a year
or more away from being a competitive team that can win at least as many as
they lose.� The offensive unit will be
in tough this week against a Jaguars team that is playing nice defensive
football.� The only Texan I would
consider starting in this game is Corey Bradford who is quietly putting up a
very nice season for the team and is ranked 10th overall. The Jaguars, their fans and some fantasy owners have to be thrilled with the play of Fred Taylor so far in 2002.� He has been healthy, he has been running hard and he has been explosive on the field.� He is averaging almost 100 yards rushing per contest and is in the top ten fantasy producers at running back despite getting his goal line carries vultured by Stacey Mack.� Jimmy Smith spoke out this week and proclaimed that he was unhappy with the amount of passes being thrown his way so far.� He is on pace for his lowest numbers since he became a starter with the team back in 1996.� I am betting the veteran Mark Brunell will try to get him the ball a lot in this game. Must Starts: Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith Predicted Score: Texans 10 at Jaguars 28 Indianapolis Colts 4-2 at Washington Redskins 2-4
Game Forecast The revolving door in Washington continues this
week with Shane Matthews back in at quarterback.� I honestly believe this is the best move for the team to win now
because Matthews is the player with enough actual playing experience to
stabilize this offense.� Patrick Ramsey
may be the player of the future but the last two weeks proved he is definitely
not the player of today.� The Redskins
need to bring Stephen Davis back into the offensive mix and what could be a
better time than to let him run the ball 30+ times against a mediocre Colts
defense.� I expect to see a huge game
from Davis unless Steve Spurrier has a few screws loose. The Colts are the worst 4-2 team in the NFL.� Not only was the defense exposed last week against the Steelers but the offense is suddenly looking shaky as well.� Peyton Manning did not have a good game last week and will be out to improve on that this week.� The Redskins actually have a pretty good defense and will likely try and shut down the effectiveness of Marvin Harrison this week using outstanding young cornerback, Champ Bailey.� Edgerrin James does not look like the player that dominated fantasy leagues during the 1999 and 2000 seasons.� The knee may still be limiting his effectiveness because he is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry and only has 1 touchdown so far. Must Starts: Stephen Davis, Peyton Manning,
Marvin Harrison, Marcus Pollard Predicted Score: Colts 24 at Redskins 27 Monday Night
Football
New York Giants 3-3 at Philadelphia Eagles 4-2
Game Forecast Whenever these two teams hook up, you can
expect a good football game.� Last
season the Giants lost both contests but only by a total of 4 points and this
game will likely be just as close and ferociously fought.� The Giants need to find a way to score
touchdowns, which has been their biggest problem so far this season.� The offense is moving the football but
hasn�t been able to get the ball into the end zone.� Kerry Collins is putting up a lot of yardage on the season but
his touchdown to interception ratio of 5-8 is simply not good enough.� Tiki Barber is getting more of the carries
this week but his yards per carry is down from a season ago.� However he is so much more effective than
fat-man Ron Dayne that it is puzzling why they continue to let Dayne steal
carries from him every game. While everybody is talking about the play of Donovan McNabb, it is the play of Duce Staley that should be most encouraging to the Eagles fans.� Staley is rushing for well over 4 yards per carry and that helps to take pressure away from the passing attack.� With a decent rushing attack, the Eagles should be considered the favorites to get to the Super Bowl this year out of the competitive NFC.� The Eagles defense is a solid group that gets the job done every week.� They completely took apart the Buccaneers last weekend. Must Starts: Donovan McNabb, Chad Lewis Predicted Score: Giants 14 at Eagles 17 |