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Week 9 |
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2002
Forecaster record to date:� 66 wins
against 50 losses. This feature is the sole opinion of Chris Smith and it may not
correspond to the rankings / projections of the Footballguys.com website. SUNDAY, October 27th On Bye �Carolina, Denver,
Kansas City, New Orleans� Baltimore Ravens 3-4 at Atlanta Falcons 4-3
Game Forecast One of the biggest surprises in the NFL
this season is the emergence of the Atlanta Falcons defense.� Most expected the offense to play well with
the athletic prowess of Michael Vick and the addition of solid running backs
Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett but the defense was supposed to be their Achilles
heel.� The defense however has been
excellent all season and is currently in the top ten overall defenses after seven
games.� Really, with a break or two this
Falcons team could be soaring with a 6-1 record on the season and they
certainly have a decent chance at fighting their way towards a playoff spot.� Michael Vick is becoming the ultimate
fantasy weapon that most thought he could coming out of Virginia Tech.� I predicted back in July that he had a shot
at breaking 900 yards rushing on the season and it appears that is very
plausible despite his missing some time.�
With the Falcons ranked # 15 on offense and # 6 on defense, they look
primed to win more games than they lose over the final stretch of the
season.� Don�t be surprised to see them
finish at 10-6 at the end of the year. The Ravens have been much better than
expected this year but are a player or two away from being serious playoff
contenders in the AFC.� The defense is
ranked down at # 22 overall but have played much better than that ranking after
a slow start.� It is encouraging for
them to have played so well despite the absence of All-World linebacker, Ray
Lewis who is the heart and soul of the team.�
It is the offense that will ultimately be their downfall though because
they simply cannot score enough points to beat the better teams on a consistent
basis.� The 30th ranked
offense needs another weapon or two before the Ravens can expect to go into
Atlanta and win. Hot News!� Willie Jackson was cut from the team.� There are rumblings he will end up with former collegiate coach,
Steve Spurrier in Washington but he certainly will not do anything at all this
week. Must Starts: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Michael
Vick, Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler Possible Starts: Jeff Blake Only in a Pinch: Travis Taylor, Brandon
Stokley, Ron Johnson, Brian Finneran, Shawn Jefferson Fantasy related Injuries � T.J. Duckett - doubtful Final Thoughts:� The Falcons are gathering momentum and Michael Vick is ready to become not only a Must Start fantasy quarterback but also an MVP player.� The Falcons will have too much on both sides of the ball for the game, yet overmatched Ravens squad.� Look for solid numbers from Jamal Lewis and Warrick Dunn and another outstanding performance from Michael Vick.� Predicted
Score: Ravens 14 at Falcons 20 New England Patriots 3-4 at Buffalo Bills 5-3
Game Forecast The
defending Super Bowl Champions are in huge trouble and are in Must Win
territory if they want a repeat trip to the post-season.� However that won�t be easy going against the
hot Bills team that has won three games in a row.� New England is a team that has lost its identity so far in 2002
and that is their biggest problem right now.�
Last season they won by playing great defense and by running the
ball effectively.� This season that
running game has vanished and Tom Brady has had his problems over the last few
contests since defenses began to figure out the attack.� The Patriots are the 3rd ranked
passing attack in the NFL but the rushing game is buried way down at 23rd
overall.� That is not Patriots football
and is the reason they have been beaten down the last few games.� What could be the determining factor in this
game is the Patriots strong pass defense that is ranked at #2 overall so
far.� The defense has had serious
problems stopping the run but the key to a win against the Bills is to first
slow down the awesome passing attack. Congratulations
to the Buffalo Bills and their surprising 5-3 start.� This team reminds me of so many Miami Dolphin teams in the late
1980�s who could score a ton of points but couldn�t stop the opposition from
doing the same.� If the Bills can get a
decent performance from the defense each week, they will have an excellent shot
at a playoff berth.� The offensive
attack is 4th in points scored and 2nd in passing and has
a running game featuring Travis Henry that cannot be ignored or it will win the
game.� Every football fan knows that the
Bills can score with anyone and it is unlikely that anyone will be able to
completely contain the offense on any given week.� Therefore it is up to the opposition to outscore the Bills and to
exploit the defensive unit that has given up a miserable 28.9 points per
contest.� The good news for the Bills is
they are much better against the pass than the run, which should help them
contain the potentially explosive passing attack of the Patriots. Must Starts: Tom Brady, Antowain Smith, Drew
Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Troy Brown Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted
Score: Patriots 28 at Bills 24 Philadelphia Eagles 5-2 at Chicago Bears 2-5
Game Forecast The
Bears are this season�s House of Cards that couldn�t support its weight
and collapsed under the pressure.� The
Bears rose to the top of the pack last year after seasons of futility and had
their fans dreaming of a Super Bowl push in 2002.� However the team has been exposed as a fraud and was an
embarrassment last week against the Vikings who were a team in disarray
themselves.� The Bears defense was supposed
to be one of the league�s best going into this season but is giving up a poor
25.7 points per game which puts them into the bottom part of the league.� Both the run and the pass defense have been
equally bad and the Bears are obviously not as talented as they appeared to be
last season.� Perhaps even a bigger
story coming out of Chicago is the complete failure of Anthony Thomas
and the Bears rushing attack to get anything going.� The Bears are ranked 31st overall in rushing and that
isn�t from lack of trying as they do run the ball 20+ times per game.� They simply cannot get the running game
started.� The Bears have the talent at
receiver to open up the offense and work on spreading out the opposing defense
but the poor play calling featuring passes only a few yards down the field
isn�t getting it done.� The Bears need
an offensive philosophy change in a huge way if they are to improve over the
second half this season.� Hey Diddle
Diddle, Thomas up the middle is not going to get it done. The
Eagles are looking very good for a strong Super Bowl push this season.� For the first time in a long time, the
Eagles appear to have a running game that is not just an afterthought and that
is so important come January.� Duce
Staley looks as strong as he did a few seasons ago and the team has all the ingredients
needed to be playing deep into January. Must Starts: Donovan McNabb, Duce Staley, Marty
Booker Fantasy related Injuries � Fred Baxter - questionable Predicted
Score: Eagles 24 at Bears 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 at Cleveland Browns 4-4
Game Forecast The
Steelers have rebounded from their awful start and are actually back in first
place in the weak AFC North division.�
After a miserable start, the Steel Curtain defense has rediscovered
their game and is giving up a respectable 20 points per game on the season and
only 80 points over the last five games.�
Tommy Maddox has the offense clicking and both Hines Ward and Plaxico
Burress are having an excellent stretch of games.� Maddox was hurt last weekend but it isn�t considered to be
serious and he�ll be ready to go in a huge game this weekend.� Famous Amos Zereoue proved he is
ready to be a solid running back in the NFL with a nice performance last week
with Jerome Bettis out with injury.� The
Steelers are now the 11th best scoring team in the NFL despite doing
next to nothing the first two weeks of the season.� They have righted the ship and are on a mission to get to the
playoffs once again. The
Browns are a tough team to figure out.�
Great one week and miserable the next, this team is quite difficult to
project..� They appeared to be down and
out last week when the Jets jumped out to a seemingly invincible 21 to 0 lead
but the never say die Browns continued to scrap their way back into the
football game.� The Browns need to
figure out how to start football games like they end them, and they�ll be
fine.� What is hurting the Browns once
again this season is the rushing game that is the lowest ranked in the NFL yet
again.� The Browns need to start
drafting offensive lineman in the draft that can run block or they�ll never
reach the next pinnacle.� The rush
defense is also poor for the team and that will spell trouble against the
Steelers that love to run the ball. Must Starts: Amos Zereoue, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress Fantasy related Injuries � Jerome Bettis - out Predicted
Score: Steelers 24 at Browns 17 Dallas Cowboys 3-5 at Detroit Lions 2-5
Game Forecast Don�t
look now but the Detroit Lions do not look nearly as hapless as they did only a
few short weeks ago.� Joey Harrington
continues to impress as a rookie despite not having wonderful receiving options
to get the ball to.� If the Lions draft
him a capable receiver in the draft this season, we may be seeing Harrington
listed as one of the top quarterbacks in the game within the next couple of
seasons.� James Stewart has been one of
the top fantasy options over the last few weeks averaging 99 yards
rushing and a touchdown per contest.�
With him back playing well, this Lions team appears to be good enough to
win a few games over their final half of the season.� The Lions defense struggled early in the season but has turned it
around over the last few weeks and is giving up less than 100 yards rushing per
game over that stretch.� The
Cowboys have a decent ground game, a solid offensive line and a good group of
receivers and yet are struggling to put points on the board.� Add it all up and it becomes clear that it
is the quarterback position that is sorely lacking this season.� With a nice group of young quarterbacks
available in next season�s NFL Draft, it will be interesting to see what the
Cowboys do with their pick.� Chad
Hutchinson may develop into a good quarterback one day but after his performance
last week, it is obvious he has quite a ways to go before that will
happen.� For all of you football fans
who are mouthing off Emmitt Smith, give the guy a freaking break.� Now I am not a Cowboys fan by any
stretch of the imagination but Smith is deserving of breaking the all-time
rushing record.� He ran hard, he broke
tackles, he broke off long runs, he helped the team win three championships, he
always showed up in big games, he was as durable as any running back ever and
to top it off he is one hell of a nice guy!�
There are enough punks in the NFL so why not give kudos to
somebody like Emmitt Smith who has always kept his morals high and his play on
the field even higher.� Congratulations
Emmitt Smith!� Couldn�t have happened to
a nicer guy. Must Starts: James Stewart Fantasy related Injuries � Mikhael Ricks, Bill Schroeder - questionable Predicted Score: Cowboys 10 at Lions 17 Tennessee Titans 3-4 at Indianapolis Colts 4-3
Game Forecast Two
weeks ago it appeared the Colts had a strangle hold on their division
and would coast to the division title.�
However now the Titans have won 2 huge games in a row while the Colts
crumpled and look lost on the football field.�
Edgerrin James started the year fairly strong but has looked slow and a
shell of his former self the past few weeks.�
When rookie running back, Ricky Williams got on the field to relieve him
last week, his quickness and ability to hit the hole truly showcased that it is
James and not the offensive line that is having the problem.� Peyton Manning is struggling to find his
groove despite putting up decent numbers.�
He has thrown only 4 touchdowns in the last three contests and has been
picked off 6 times.� He is getting down
on himself and needs a big game this week.�
The Titans defense isn�t great and that could mean big things from both
Manning and Marvin Harrison this week. Congratulations
to the Titans for getting back in the hunt for a divisional title.� In the last two contests, Steve McNair has
thrown 4 touchdown passes against 0 interceptions and has led the team to a
couple of huge victories.� Eddie George
has run for over 4 yards per carry and Derrick Mason has returned from
injury.� The Colts defense has not been
very effective at stopping the run over the last couple of weeks and that will
be the deciding factor in this game.� If
Eddie George can average more than 4 yards per carry, the Titans will have an
excellent shot at winning this contest. Must Starts: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison,
Qadry Ismail, Marcus Pollard, Steve McNair, Eddie George, Frank Wycheck Fantasy related Injuries � Derrick Mason � questionable / Edgerrin James - out Predicted Score: Titans 21 at Colts 30 Minnesota Vikings 2-5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2
Game Forecast The Buccaneers
may be the worst offensive football team to ever start the year
6-2.� The Buccaneers defense is not only
the reason for the team�s success this season but are pretty close to having
more touchdowns than the offensive unit.�
The defense is playing as well as the Raven�s unit from two seasons ago
and perhaps as good as the mighty Bears of 1985.� Giving up just over 10 points per game is awesome by itself but
it becomes even better when you consider the offenses inability to move the
football.� Johnson and Johnson have both
been busts in my opinion and it is time to give the true best quarterback in
Tampa Bay the chance to showcase his talents on Sundays.� Shaun King is the best passer in Tampa and
it is about time for him to get a chance to jump-start a truly awful offensive
attack. The Vikings have
talent but something is missing.�
Whether it is the coaching, motivation or simply bad chemistry,
this team doesn�t look capable of winning too many games this season.� Daunte Culpepper has struggled at times this
year but has looked much better since the team did away with the amateurish
Randy Moss ratio that could be the worst coaching decision of the season.� The Vikings will be hard pressed to score
many points against a defense as dominant as the Buccaneers have been so far in
2002. Must Starts: Keyshawn Johnson, Randy Moss,
Daunte Culpepper Fantasy related Injuries � D�Wayne Bates � questionable / Brad Johnson, Keenan
McCardell - doubtful Predicted Score: Vikings 14 at Buccaneers 30 Cincinnati Bengals 0-7 at Houston Texans 2-5
Game Forecast In their
quest for victory, the Bengals fly into Houston to play the expansion
Texans.� The Bengals have bumbled and
stumbled their way to a horrible start yet again and their star player,
Corey Dillon is fuming with the lack of success the team is experiencing.� However, if there were ever a game the
Bengals should win, it would be this weekend.�
The Texans are a poor football team who has stayed in football games
with heart and sound coaching. With the Texans coming off of a surprise road
win this week; they could easily suffer a letdown this week against a team that
knows they play a football game this week they can actually win.� Corey Dillon is in for one of his annual
monster games this week and I would start him for sure this weekend if he
is on your roster.� Also the Bengals
finally have a receiver emerging from the pack to play good football.� Chad Johnson is becoming the go-to receiver
on a weekly basis and is perhaps the first legitimate option the team has had
at the position since Darnay Scott was healthy a few seasons back.� The defense has been a giant disappointment
so far in 2002 but should be able to contain the young offensive unit of the
Texans.� David Carr though has been
sensational for the Texans over the last few weeks and has averaged over 200
yards per game with no interceptions over that period.� He is going to be a great one in a very
short time. Must Starts: Corey Dillon, Corey Bradford, Billy
Miller Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted Score: Bengals 24 at Texans 17 New York Jets 2-5 at San Diego Chargers 6-1
Game Forecast The Jets
collapse last week cost them any chance of getting back into the playoff
picture in 2002.� Having a 21 point lead
at home against an average team only to blow it in the fourth quarterback is
the type of play that will get a head coach fired in a short period of time and
the writing is on the wall for Herman Edwards if it doesn�t begin to turn
around in a hurry.� Chad Pennington has
played exceptional football for the Jets and has thrown for over 500 yards in
his last two football games.� Curtis
Martin still hasn�t reached the level of play he is used to but he has been
better over the last few games than he was at the start of the season.� One of the hottest (and happiest players) in
the NFL right now is Laveranues Coles who has been on fire since the benching
of Vinny Testaverde a few weeks ago.� What can
you say about the Chargers team?� The
defense is playing terrific football and that allows the offense to play the
conservative style of play that helps them achieve success each week.� Ladainian Tomlinson is averaging more yards
rushing per game than any other NFL player this season and Curtis Conway is
averaging more fantasy points per game than any other receiver in the NFL.� The Chargers are playing great football and
seem to have the perfect blend of experience and determination to continue
their high level of play.� It is now
certain that �Marty Ball� and the Chargers are an excellent fit and
perhaps coach Schottenheimer will finally experience the post-season success
that has eluded him for so long. Must Starts: - Ladainian Tomlinson, Curtis Conway,
Laveranues Coles Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted Score: Jets 13 at Chargers 27 Washington Redskins 3-4 at Seattle Seahawks 2-5
Game Forecast Trent
Dilfer out.� Those three little words likely mean the end
of the season for the Hawks who now have to rely on Matt Hasselbeck who was in
a word, terrible to start the season.�
With Shaun Alexander running the ball tentatively for the team
and Darrell Jackson out this weekend, the writing is on the wall for Mike
Holmgren who could be looking for a new job very soon. The
Redskins are better when they play conservatively and it appears that Steve
Spurrier has finally realized that.�
Shane Matthews wasn�t asked to be incredible last week and he came
through with flying colors.� The team
ran the ball well and is likely to try and run the ball 30 + times this week as
well.� Stephen Davis may not be able to
go this weekend and if he cannot, the job will go to Kenny Watson who was solid
in relief.� Starting any Redskin
receiver is a risky proposition due to the coach�s penchant for starting new
players on a weekly basis.� The Redskins
defense is pretty solid and should be able to pressure Hasselbeck and cause him
to commit turnovers. Must Starts: Shaun Alexander Fantasy related Injuries � Stephen Davis � questionable / Darrell Jackson, Trent
Dilfer - out Predicted Score: Redskins 24 at Seahawks 13 St. Louis Rams 2-5 at Arizona Cardinals 4-3
Game Forecast Everybody
believed the Rams were out of the playoff hunt after starting the season 0-5
but if they win this weekend to go to 3-5 on the season this team will have the
momentum and confidence needed to make a serious playoff push
over the second half.� With Marshall
Faulk running like he is possessed and Marc Bulger putting up solid numbers,
this Rams team has the talent to end up 10-6 or 9-7 on the season and sneak
into the playoffs.� The Rams defense is
solid and this team is ready to begin piling up a lot of wins.� Don�t count this team out yet. The
Cardinals are not as good as the record would indicate and the 49ers showcased
that a week ago with a lopsided victory.�
With David Boston struggling this season and the running backs fighting
off injuries, this team has been playing over its head and has been pretty
lucky at times this season.� Jake
Plummer continues to throw more interceptions than touchdowns and is low
completion rate is not helping the team.�
The defense has been solid at times, but the 49ers exposed them
as a fraud by moving the ball at will against them. Must Starts: Marc Bulger, Marshall Faulk, Torry
Holt, Isaac Bruce, David Boston, Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted Score: Rams 31 at Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 5-2 at Oakland Raiders 4-3
Game Forecast The
Raiders have gone from being the toast of the town to being in danger of
slipping out of the playoff hunt in the wildly competitive AFC West
division.� The Raiders have suffered
demoralizing losses to the Chargers and Chiefs and now have a must win game
against a very good San Francisco team.�
Rich Gannon has thrown almost 50 passes per game the last three starts
but hasn�t been as effective as he was to start the season.� The Raiders were shut down by a poor Chiefs
defense last week, which has caused lots of question marks to spring up in
Raider land.� The offense is better than
what they showed last week but they need to put together a big game this Sunday
or the team could be in trouble.�
Charlie Garner hasn�t scored a touchdown in the past three games, which
is a big problem for the Raiders.� He
was absolutely dominant to start the season and they need him to regain that
success if they are to do well. The
49ers are a solid all-around football team with no real holes.� Jeff Garcia is a good quarterback, Terrell
Owens is a top-tier receiver and the running back tandem of Garrison Hearst and
Kevan Barlow get the job done each week.�
Their combined rushing total of 793 yards would put them at # 3
overall.� The backbone of the offense is
the strong offensive line, which doesn�t get enough credit for the success of
the team.� The defense of the team has a
lot of talent but at times is still too inconsistent and needs to mature as a
unit.� The 49ers will try to establish
the run against the Raiders who have been run on successfully the last few
weeks. Must Starts: Rich Gannon, Charlie Garner, Tim
Brown, Jerry Rice, Jeff Garcia, Kevan Barlow, Terrell Owens Fantasy related Injuries � Garrison Hearst, Eric Johnson � questionable / Tyrone
Wheatley - doubtful Predicted Score: 49ers 20 at Raiders 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4 at New York Giants 3-4
Game Forecast Two
teams that are up and down like a yo-yo match up in New York this weekend. Fred
Taylor continues to run the ball well for the Jaguars and he is the most
important part of an otherwise ineffective offensive attack.� He is averaging almost 100 yards per contest
and more importantly hasn�t been hit with the nagging injury issues that have
plagued his career to date.� Perhaps he
will be like Garrison Hearst and survive his early career injury woes but only
time will tell.� The Jaguars were
playing over their heads to start the season and the three losses in a row have
them falling towards the bottom of the NFL where they likely belong. The
Giants are one of the best teams at moving the ball in between the twenty-yard
lines and perhaps the worst I have ever seen inside the twenty.� Whether it is poor play calling or simply
ineffective play from the players isn�t certain but something has to change
when a team gets shut down again and again in the red-zone.� ATTENTION JIM FASSEL!� Ron Dayne stinks and there is no reason to
give him the ball at all during a football game.� There was one play against the Eagles where he had a nice hole to
waddle through and he paused in the hole allowing the defense to hit him.� Perhaps he saw a jellybean on the ground or
glanced at a fan eating a burger in the stands while he was chugging through
the hole but that was horrible.� He
weighs in at over 260 pounds and runs like he is 140 pounds, soaking wet.� Not only should he be on the bench, he
should be inactive.� Ike Hilliard is out
of action for the rest of the year which means Ron Dixon will get a chance to
showcase his skills.� He has speed and
quickness but needs to continue improving on all other aspects of his
game.� He is better than he was last
season though.� Kerry Collins has only 5
touchdown passes so far and that is not good enough to continue being a
starting NFL quarterback.� He will be
losing that title soon if he doesn�t find a way to get the ball into the
endzone. Must Starts: Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor, Jeremy
Shockey Fantasy related Injuries � Jerome Bettis - out Predicted Score: Jaguars 13 at Giants 21 Monday Night
Football
Miami Dolphins 5-2 at Green Bay Packers 6-1
Game Forecast This is
an interesting contest and I may be looking at it through teal-colored
glasses but I believe the Dolphins have a good shot at pulling off the
upset in this one.� Sure the
quarterbacking was an embarrassment two weeks ago but Lucas admitted his play
was awful and to be fair to him, the receiving core the Dolphins had in that
game was horrible as well.� This week,
he will have more targets to get the ball to and he�ll be out to prove he does
belong in the NFL.� Ricky Williams will
be determined to have a good game in this contest and could find some success
against a Packers team that is only decent against the run.� The Dolphins defense is as strong as ever
and will be out to shut down the Packers passing attack. Brett
Favre is going to play in this game continuing his amazing Iron Man streak.
I believe his streak of consecutive games played from the quarterback position
is truly incredible with the punishment you get game in and game out.� The Dolphins have the talent in the
secondary to shut down the Packers receivers which means Bubba Franks will need
to step up with a big game for the team to have success.� I think back to the Chiefs victory against
the Dolphins a few weeks ago by getting Tony Gonzalez open down the field and
that is probably the strategy the Packers will try to incorporate this weekend.� I also expect to see the Packers try to get
Ahman Green the ball at least 20 times.�
The Dolphins are good at shutting down the run so Green will likely
catch the ball out of the backfield a ton in this game. Must Starts: Ricky Williams, Ahman Green, Randy
McMichael, Bubba Franks, Brett Favre, Donald Driver Fantasy related Injuries � none Predicted Score: Dolphins 17 at Packers 14 |