The Art of the Trade
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Posted 8/19 by Garrett Grinder - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Even the most structurally sound draft-designs in terms of planning, preparation
and execution can be subverted by injury or unexpected underperformance, placing
the very foundation of a would-be playoff contender at risk of implosion, thereby
creating the conditions for a condemned season. Consequently, the Shark rarely
swims successfully in the wake of a draft without the benefit of some mid-season
propulsion via trade. The key to being a masterful trader is to always be on
the prowl to improve your squad. In so doing, learn and live by the Four "S"
principles.
- Supply: your trading partner must have an overflow of talent at the
targeted position, and you require a stockpile of quality at his position
of need. If this reciprocal condition does not exist, you can still make overtures
but chances are that your lure is not enticing enough to reel him in.
- Study: Getting a handle on player and team trends is paramount in
this regard. Take the Jets last season. They got off to a slow start and Curtis
Martin's ankle was tweaked. However, by mid-season Chad Pennington had competently
seized the reins on the starting QB job, and Martin started posting better
numbers despite never really playing at 100% during the season. Another important
study, and one that is essentially meaningless until a few games into the
season, is strength of schedule (SOS). It's amazing to me that even some Sharks
dwell on SOS in July more so than in October. By the season's second month,
the Shark should be on the hunt for prey that could ensure a playoff feeding
frenzy. Who in July 2002 could have predicted the Steelers pass defense would
falter so badly or that Carolina's defense would vault to top-5 status? Nobody
- but by October, seeing one of those teams on a Week 14-16 schedule for a
player you are targeting immediately set off an alarm that would have had
the opposite effect in July.
- Stupidity: Okay, there's a harsh connotation that comes with the
word "stupid" but many leagues have owners who suffer from
shall
we say, a fantasy savvy deficit. A true shark need not feel guilty about exploiting
these people, who will ultimately be educated and become more fantasy savvy
for having been scorched. The key is identifying the person you may be able
to talk into taking Donte Stallworth for Curtis Martin; or even better-Curtis
Martin for Terrell Owens!
- Salesmanship: Even the ugliest of pictures can be beautified beyond
recognition when immaculately framed. It may walk like a lemon, talk like
a lemon, and above all - play like a lemon, but it's your job to squeeze lemonade
into the cool tall drinking glass of your potential trading partner. Don't
talk about the 46-yards per week average in his first five games, talk about
the fact the man ran for 100 and scored a TD this week, and also scored last
week. Clearly, he's on the upswing! When packaging players, emphasize the
favorable cumulative fantasy points per week average your trading partner
would be receiving; never mind the fine print that not all the players he's
getting would be in his starting lineup. In short, you need to lure with a
hint of production and a promise of potential for more, and statistics can
be manipulated any number of ways to support a trade proposal.
How This Has Worked in Practice
Last season, like just about every season, I overemphasized RBs to the detriment
of my WR corps during the draft. The result was an underwhelming early season
combination of Plaxico Burress and Koren Robinson, both of whom started slow
and picked up the pace later. Donte Stallworth and James Thrash sat on my bench.
My RB stable included Priest Holmes, Fred Taylor and Eddie George.
So after a few weeks deliberation and study of league rosters, I formulated
a plan. Stallworth had scored a TD a week in 3 straight games and looked poised
to explode. However, at closer examination he was a rookie and hadn't even registered
a 100-yard performance. Curtis Martin was playing miserably and the Jets were
caught in a tailspin. I figured this particular trend would not last and found
a frustrated Martin owner with no punch in his WR corps either, and partnered
up. A couple of weeks later, Stallworth cooled and Martin warmed. I happened
to catch a very concerned Terrell Owens owner at exactly the right time. Owens
had suffered what was thought to be a high ankle sprain and, although it turned
out to be insignificant, information coming out of the media was sparse in specifics.
The owner in my cross hairs already had lost a starting RB to injury and mired
in a three-game losing streak. At the time, Thrash was still a viable consideration
to some owners, so I was miraculously able to pry Owens for the pittance of
Martin and Thrash. In essence, I parlayed Stallworth into Owens.
Now, I realize the stars need to be aligned to make such deals happen. The
waters in my league may be populated with more guppies than the leagues in which
many of you swim. And all favorable deals will not be so glaringly lopsided
in the eyes of a discerning Shark. However, if you use the Four "S"
principles, you can bolster your position from also ran to that of prime contender.
Certainly, one need not parlay Donte Stallworth into Terrell Owens in order
to become a more viable contender.
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