Breaking the Learning Curve
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Posted 8/19 by Dana L. Harding - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Many of us have been playing fantasy football for quite some time now and manage
an internal database of players almost as efficiently as we eat, sleep and breathe.
When you've been playing for over a decade, depth charts and player rankings
become second nature, and the game becomes much more enjoyable (assuming you're
able to parlay this knowledge into success at some point in time). Much like
a rolling wheel, it's more difficult to get started than it is to simply keep
moving along once you're in motion.
Call it a basic principle of physics if you will, but fantasy circles refer
to it as the dreaded learning curve.
As a fantasy rookie, you're most likely a legitimate fan of the NFL, or at
least a team or two. You join a league thinking you have a pretty good working
knowledge of the players and feel pretty confident heading into the draft. Sure,
you'll bone up a bit and try to figure out who will be playing for whom during
the upcoming season but, unless you're a relentless research hound, you won't
be able to process the amount of information necessary in order to have a shark-level
draft.
For a rookie owner, it's simply a case of too much information, and not enough
time to process it all. Welcome to the learning curve, Rook.
Much like the on-field success of NFL receivers, I think fantasy football takes
a good three seasons in order to make the moves necessary to field a competent
team year-in and year-out. Sure, there are stories of rookie champions, but
we all know this thing of ours requires a bit of luck at times
and a
truckload at others. The only thing certain about luck is sooner or later it's
going to run out.
Before you burn all those cheat sheets, however, realize there is hope (and
it doesn't consist of forty-hour research weeks, either). By following some
basic guidelines during your first few seasons, you can accelerate the learning
curve and become shark-worthy in no time at all. You're still going to take
some lumps during your first years
we all do; however, by setting yourself
up with some efficient researching skills, you'll minimize the mistakes and
put a little fear into the rest of your league.
- Step One: The Information Websites
If you're reading this, you've already stumbled upon one of the most extensive
fantasy football resources on the web (s'up Joe & David). Footballguys.com
is perfect example of an informational site offering a variety of timely NFL
news and advice.
If you haven't book marked this site and several others already, you might
want to consider a new hobby before you waste any more time. If you want to
be a shark, it's going to take a bit of time each day in order to get there.
Not hours, mind you. Mere minutes will suffice, as long as you make it a daily
event.
Whether it's in the morning or evening, make it a point each day to cruise
by your informational sites to stay on top of the NFL news. Many of these
sites also have daily e-mail updates and, if you didn't know already, it's
much easier to read official looking e-mails on company time than it is to
surf fantasy football websites. Those office managers and authoritative types
have an uncanny knack for walking at the most inopportune times and, difficult
as it may seem, they tend to frown on our brand of research.
At any rate, while you might not recognize all the players just yet, make
it a point to read this info each day and things will start to click. Your
daily info source, whatever it may be, is the lifeblood of your fantasy season
be sure you treat it as such. It's not necessary to subscribe to the
pay-per-view sites out there, either. Realize you can find all the info that's
out there if you look hard enough; however, pay sites such as FOOTBALLGUYS.COM
do an excellent job of organizing all the material and giving you exactly
what you need to survive out there. While it's a judgment call on your part,
keep in mind it's almost always money well spent.
- Step Two: The Notebook
Your key to optimal organization will take a grand total of three dollars
to achieve. While your preferences may vary, I like a good three-ring binder
that's about ½-inch thick. Coupled with a hole-punch and a few pocket
folders, you have the start of your information tome.
Yes
we all have our wonderful computers; however, low-tech as it may
seem, you'll be able to take this notebook everywhere (and you won't have
to worry about breaking an LCD screen when you drop it on the sidewalk). The
mere exercise of reviewing your notes on paper will help you process your
information better
trust me on this one.
Now that you have your fantasy football workhorse, don't let another minute
go by without covering that bad boy with your team or league logo. Ink jet
printers and slide-in plastic cover holders were made for this very purpose.
Don't skimp, either. You're going to be hauling that notebook around for the
next few months, so you might as well enjoy looking at it.
So, what goes in first?
- Roster of your league's owners, along with e-mail addresses and phone
numbers (local leagues) for each.
- Rules and scoring system
- Important dates in your league (draft, trading deadline, etc.)
- Draft order (if you already have one assigned)
- A copy of the NFL schedule
- A copy of NFL bye weeks
- A copy of your fantasy schedule
Now that we have a little bit of seed info, let's add some weight to your
database.
- Step Three: Depth Charts
Just as we need oxygen in order to breathe, the shark needs depth charts in
order to prepare for the draft, and now is also the time for that computer
to pay for itself.
Using your word processor, make an alphabetical list of each and every
NFL team (using one full sheet per team). Next, make a listing beneath each
team for QB, RB, WR, TE and K positions. Once you have that completed, head
on over to NFL.com and review each team's depth chart information. You'll
want to key in as many players as are listed at each position, as this will
help familiarize yourself with the multitude of backups you'll need down
the road. Also, don't forget to date each one of the pages
you'll
thank me for this later when you're stuck wondering which set of notes is
the most recent.
Take this document into your office and print it out on the laser when
nobody is looking, three-hole punch all 32 pages and then place it neatly
into your binder.
Congrats!
You're now set with lunchtime, break time and bathroom reading material.
Throughout the days and weeks ahead, make it a point to constantly review
your depth chart listings and update them as necessary (this is why you
wasted 32 sheets of paper, btw).
- Step Four: Player Rankings
If you believe anything I tell you in this article, make certain it's this:
Nothing screams rookie owner louder than showing up to your draft with a mere
magazine cheat sheet in hand. For one, they're almost always tragically out
of date by the time your league's draft rolls around and, what's more, you're
putting entirely too much faith into someone else's opinion (not to mention
the fact that rankings won't always reflect your league's scoring system).
Player rankings are literally everywhere on the 'net. Print out several
from online sources, grab a magazine if you must, and plop down in front
of your computer one evening with an ample supply of whatever beverage you're
most comfortable drinking seven or eight at a time.
Using one document page per position, rank your own players. It's perfectly
acceptable to copy from your favorite list, too. Just make certain you have
your own printouts at the draft. That, alone, will get you a front row seat
inside someone's head at the draft
guaranteed.
Once you have your positions ranked, date your sheets, print them out and
then punch them into your notebook. If your office manager looks at you
suspiciously, tell them they're missing out on free donuts in the break
room.
Review your player rankings throughout the days and weeks leading up to
your draft. As you watch for player and team updates, be sure to adjust
your rankings whenever necessary. While nothing is more embarrassing for
a rookie owner than drafting a player out for the entire season, keeping
track of this each week will help ensure you're the one laughing on draft
day instead of the one being laughed at.
- Step Five: League Rosters
Once you get through your draft, head back to the computer and create a sheet
for each one of your league's owners. In addition to contact information,
key in each owner's roster by position (don't forget to date your sheets).
On the way into the office to print out your rosters, stop by the donut shop
and pick up some grub for your office manager. That story won't ever work
a second time, after all.
Familiarizing yourself with team rosters is one of the keys to fantasy
success. Sharks are able to spot a player update and instantly know which
owner is affected by the news. Timing in fantasy football is everything
and, sometimes, being the first one to make that trade offer after an owner's
stud player goes down makes all the difference in the world.
You must know thy league in order to crush thy league.
- Step Six: The Wish List
It's often said that fantasy football leagues aren't won during the draft.
Instead, they're won over the course of a long season of free agent transactions,
trades, and a little bit of luck. It's highly unlikely you're going to be
successful in your league standing pat with your newly drafted roster. Undrafted
players will break out and put up some huge numbers, while highly touted draft
picks will go into the tank.
Once your rosters are complete, take a peek at the list of undrafted players
and list several at each position you feel could have opportunities to succeed.
On that same page, list some players who you might have had your eye on
during the draft only to see them selected by other owners.
By keeping track of these players each week, in addition to your own, you'll
be able to gauge the potential risk vs. reward of adding them to your own
roster, and fantasy football is all about risk vs. Reward Wait too long
for a player to develop, and you'll get the chance to watch him perform
on someone else's roster.
Sure, you'll have your share of reaches. After all, for every Dominic Rhodes
in the league, there will exist a slew of Ron Dayne-type players who are
eager to disappoint.
- Step Seven: Owner Trends
With everything else being equal, sometimes it's the tiniest detail that makes
or breaks a fantasy team. During one season in which I was struggling with
injuries, I was able to pull off a monster trade simply because I overheard
a comment during the draft that so-and-so's favorite player ended up on my
roster. While I traded away a stud, I received much more value in return from
an owner more than willing to net his prize catch. That very trade catapulted
my floundering team into the finals that season.
What's the point here?
I was more than willing to take less in the trade initially, but by knowing
a particular owner's trends, I was able to leverage myself into an even better
position. You'll still have to learn the art of the deal on your own over time;
however, knowing your enemy will always be almost as important as knowing your
players.
You can't control what happens out on the field, but you can certainly influence
what happens within your own league. Even the slightest advantage is still an
advantage and, in a competitive league, could make all the difference in the
world.
You have your hands full this season, Rook. Better take a deep breath and swim
like hell.
There be sharks in these waters.
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