Things Change (I know that's not a stunning revelation, however it is something that gets overlooked at times). This is as true in fantasy football, as it is anywhere else in life. No team has ever won back-to-back championships in my local league. The fantasy stars of last year will not necessarily be the fantasy stars of the upcoming year… which brings me to the point of this article. It is documented that only a handful of players typically repeat last year's performance. Others rise or fall to varying degrees. It is also widely noted that the majority of projections for the forthcoming year do not reflect that. Most merely re-list last year's results with some minor tweaking. Some bolder predictions account for the typical amount of turnover in fantasy production, however they are often based on only one or two factors. The following checklist is an attempt to outline the wide range of factors that could lead to a player's results varying from last years. It obviously only addresses factors known heading into the season, and does not account for factors that will invariably arise during the season.

Situation changes

• Promoted from backup to starter (or demoted the other direction)
• Promoted from WR2 to WR1 (or demoted the other direction). Do they have the talent to handle being the top receiver, or were they better off as a WR2?
• Promoted from part of a RBBC to feature back (or demoted the other direction)

Surrounding player changes

• Changed teams. Is the new team better, similar, or worse?
• Have there been significant changes to the offensive line (for better or worse)? No change is often a positive for lines, since they need time to learn to work as a unit.
• Has the run blocking changed at the FB or TE position?
• Has the passing or running game changed? Success of one often helps the other one improve.
• Has the defense changed? A good defense might allow the offense to run more. A bad defense might force the offense into a passing shoot-out, or at least get some garbage time points.
• Is a player being pushed by the backup? Will they respond by improving or wind up being pushed out?

Game plan changes

• Has the coaching changed? New head coach or offensive coordinator? Has a player's positional coach (often a mentor role) been added, deleted, or changed?
• Will there be a new offensive system to learn? Has the player worked in a similar system before? Is the player suited to the system? How complex is the new system, and how much learning curve might be expected?
• Is there an indication that the team wants to focus more on running or passing this year? Judgment call: is it legitimate or just coachspeak?
• Is there an indication that the team wants to shift focus in the red zone? Judgment call: is it legitimate or just coachspeak?
• Will a RB become more (or less) involved in the passing game?
• Is a scrambling QB being pressed to stay in the pocket? (Yes, if you're thinking this item was added in honor of Mr. Vick this year, you're correct).

Body Changes

• Is the player getting old? Have they reached the typical age threshold of effectiveness for their position? Is their name Jerry Rice, and thus are exempt from aging?
• Have they recently picked up one of those nagging minor injuries?
• Are they coming off an injury from late last year or the offseason? Is it one of those that take two years to truly recover from?
• Have they altered their usual offseason workout routine? Are they in much better (or worse) shape than last year?

Mind Changes

• Are they in a contract year and thinking about money?
• Did they just sign a big contract?
• Are they holding out during camp/preseason?
• Are they dealing with personal or legal issues?
• Do they have a renewed focus? Have they been putting in overtime studying the playbook and game films?
• What's the focus level of their surrounding team mates? It can be infectious (good or bad).

Misc. changes

• Is the schedule significantly easier or harder… be sure to use Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule information , and not the standard record-based SOS commonly found. (Note: the fact that this article was submitted to Clayton for review is purely coincidental, and should in no way be construed as brown-nosing.)
• Is there potential carryover from the end of last year? Did they end last year on a hot streak (and was that just luck or had they finally got it together)? Did they end last year in slump (and was that just luck or had the opponents finally figured them out)?
• Are they in the coach's dog house for some reason? Is the coach forceful enough to do something about it? Is the player talented enough that the coach has to play them regardless?

If you were looking for lots of questions and no answers, you should now be set for awhile. You can run through the above list of questions while assessing and projecting a player's potential for the forthcoming season. You may want to look at all the players on an NFL team at one time, since many of the questions involve the surrounding team. After answering all these little questions, the big picture will hopefully start to reveal itself. An added bonus to answering all these questions for all the players in the NFL is that you will no longer have to worry about what to do with any free time you may have.