Following the Sheep
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Posted 8/13 by David Ingraham - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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So you have watched others having all the fun and you have decided to set up
your own fantasy football league this year? Good for you! You are about to find
out that watching football games has never been so much fun.
But now comes the hard part; you must set up rules and structure for your league.
One of the first tasks is to determine your scoring system and line up requirements.
That seems easy. You will start with the same basic scoring as real football
uses
six points for a touchdown, three points for a field goal,
one point for a point after touchdown. Then you will make some modifications.
Someone has surely noticed that quarterbacks throw for more touchdowns than
running backs or receivers score. So you will cut the value of those down to
three or four points. Then you will probably add bonuses for long field goals
and add some value to defensive team performance by crediting them with a bonus
for limiting the opponent's scoring or yardage.
Now you are ready for your line up. Well you will probably want to use a standard
NFL line up with 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end,
1 kicker, and 1 defense. STOP RIGHT THERE! You are about to follow the sheep.
Let me explain. NFL teams do not really use 2 running backs. That practice went
out with Lenny Moore and Alan Ameche. The formation that NFL teams employ is
1 running back and 1 fullback. The latter is a pass catching guard with a lower
uniform number. You will never bother to draft Lorenzo Neal or William Henderson.
Why should you care about this? Because the simple act of establishing a line
up requirement which does not mirror the actual player use by NFL teams is about
to dictate what is going to be required to succeed in your league for as long
as you continue to play. The critical success factor is going to be obtaining
TWO highly productive running backs and having a THIRD modestly productive one
to back them up. You may ask why?
The most typical number of teams in a league will be twelve. There are 32 NFL
teams so a line up which requires 1 quarterback, 1 tight end, 1 kicker and 1
defense is going to use 12 out of 32 of the NFL starting players at each of
those positions. That is 37.5% of the available NFL starters. Using 2 wide receivers
will require 24 players, but there are 64 NFL starters to choose from and so
you will still be using only 37.5 % of the NFL starters. Now when you get to
the requirement for using 2 running backs you will need also need 24 players,
but you will find only 32 NFL starters to choose from. You will therefore have
to use 75% of the NFL starters. So a relative shortage of running backs exists
by the very nature of your line up requirement.
The problem is actually worse than the simple math makes it appear. Every team
in your league will want a substitute at each position in order to cover bye
weeks, injuries, and perhaps even poor performance by the starters. If you all
draft one extra quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense you will need an
added 37.5% of the available NFL starters. That will mean that 75% of the NFL
starters find there way onto the rosters of teams in your league. You will still
have eight NFL starters at each of those positions who are not drafted and will
presumably be available later on in a free agent pool. At wide receiver the
need for at least one substitute on each team will require teams in your league
to actually draft at least 36 players. That is only 56% of the NFL starters
so there will be some fine choices available for your benches. So far, so good.
Now here comes the squeeze! You will need 12 substitute running backs. You
have already taken the top 24 NFL players and there are only eight NFL starters
left. Four of your teams will not have a starter. Actually you will find that
some of the eight who think they took starters really didn't. What they got
was a part of the most dreaded situation in fantasy football - the RBBC or running
back by committee. In this situation none of the players on an NFL team are
worth very much because they all split time and carries. Think of Pittman and
Alstott or Bettis and Zereoue last year.
So now you have seen the inevitable result of your line up decision - there
is going to be a scarcity of running backs in your league. This makes running
backs the most valuable commodities in your draft. Every fantasy expert has
recognized this and you will find that they will advise you to "get two
stud RBs" or "use the Faulk Strategy (which dictates drafting RBs
with each of your first three picks)". Most of your owners will follow
this advice and there will be a tremendous run on running backs at the top of
the draft. It is not unusual for the first eight or ten picks to be running
backs before someone jumps in to select Harrison or Vick. They will say that
the value was just too great to pass up. My advice is to humor them with some
comment like "Nice choice Harry" and use your own choice to take another
running back. You must get TWO highly productive running backs and a decent
back up to have a chance to win. You can get productive quarterbacks and wide
receivers later on in the draft.
Is there an alternative? YES. Start with the decision on the line up requirement.
If it mirrored more closely the way players are used by NFL teams, the scarcity
of running backs would not exist. Suppose that you have only 1 running back
in your starting line up? Then you would only need 37.5% of the NFL starters
as starters in your league. You would only need 75% of the NFL starters to give
every one of your teams a starter and substitute. There would be no more scarcity
of running backs than there is of quarterbacks!
Now how do you fill that eighth position in your line up? With a third wide
receiver, much the way NFL teams do on a large portion of their plays. You might
be tempted to think that I have just shifted the scarcity from one position
to another. That is not the case. You will need 36 starters in your league,
which will use up 56% of the NFL starters. When each of your teams adds a quality
substitute to their roster you will still only have tapped 75% of the NFL starters.
And the math is not really even that bad. Because NFL teams use three wide receivers
on so many plays, the pool of quality options is deeper than just two per NFL
team. And many of those third wide receivers will be very productive choices.
People like Porter, Freeman, Jurevicius, Lelie, Proehl, and Randle El come easily
to mind.
So the choice is yours. You can be different and set your line up requirement
to require one running back and three wide receivers. If you do you had better
give serious thought to the relative value of players at different positions.
If you choose to follow the sheep and use two running backs and two wide receivers
you had better also follow the sheep on draft day and draft scarcity.
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