Leveraging the NFL Odds to determine who to start:
Each week some of the smartest NFL wtachers create odds or lines regarding which teams will win the games that week. And surprisingly these oddsmakers come very close to predicting the outcomes each week. By leveraging their data with a little algebra, a fantasy player can get valuable insight into the predicted final scores of NFL games before they are played. Odds by USA Today.
For Example: Miami at Indianapolis (Ind by 2.5, under/over = 46.5) Let x = Miami points Let y = Indianapolis points x + y = 46.5 y - x = 2.5 or y = x + 2.5 sovling for x: x + (x + 2.5) = 46.5 2x + 2.5 = 46.5 2x = 44 x = 22.00 (Expected pts - Miami) y = x + 2.5 = 24.50 (Expected pts - Indianapolis)
Here are the rest of the NFL games: Jacksonville at Kansas City (KC by 4, under/over = 44.5) Kansas City = 24.25 Jacksonville = 20.25 Green Bay at New Orleans (GB by 2, under/over = 45) Green Bay = 23.50 New Orleans = 21.50 New England at NY Jets (NY Jets by 1, under/over = 42.5) NY Jets = 21.75 New England = 20.75 Chicago at Atlanta (Atl by 3, under/over = 43) Atlanta = 23.00 Chicago = 20.00 Tampa Bay at Baltimore (TB by 3.5, under/over = 33) Tampa Bay = 18.25 Baltimore = 14.75 Detroit at Carolina (Car by 3, under/over = 37) Carolina = 20.00 Detroit = 17.00 Cincinnat at Cleveland (Cle by 4, under/over = 38) Cleveland = 21.00 Cincinnati = 17.00 Tennessee at Dallas (Ten by 3, under/over = 37.5) Tennessee = 20.25 Dallas = 17.25 NY Giants at St. Louis (StL by 12.5, under/over = 47) St. Louis = 29.75 NY Giants = 17.25 Arizona at Seattle (Sea by 3.5, under/over = 40) Seattle = 21.75 Arizona = 18.25 Buffalo at Minnesota (Min by 5, under/over = 47) Minnesota = 26.00 Buffalo = 21.00 Denver at San Francisco (SF by 3.5, under/over = 44.5) San Francisco = 24.00 Denver = 20.50 Houston at San Diego (SD by 13, under/over = 33.5) San Diego = 23.25 Houston = 10.25 Oakland at Pittsburgh (Pit by 4, under/over = 39.5) Pittsburgh = 21.75 Oakland = 17.75 Philadelphia at Washington (Phi by 3, under/over = 44.5) Philadelphia = 23.75 Washington = 20.75
Sorting from highest to lowest yields the following: St. Louis = 29.75 Minnesota = 26.00 Indianapolis = 24.50 Kansas City = 24.25 San Francisco = 24.00 Philadelphia = 23.75 Green Bay = 23.50 San Diego = 23.25 Atlanta = 23.00 Miami = 22.00 Pittsburgh = 21.75 NY Jets = 21.75 Seattle = 21.75 New Orleans = 21.50 Buffalo = 21.00 Cleveland = 21.00 Washington = 20.75 New England = 20.75 Denver = 20.50 Tennessee = 20.25 Jacksonville = 20.25 Carolina = 20.00 Chicago = 20.00 Tampa Bay = 18.25 Arizona = 18.25 Oakland = 17.75 Dallas = 17.25 NY Giants = 17.25 Cincinnati = 17.00 Detroit = 17.00 Baltimore = 14.75 Houston = 10.25