You ever watch a game and say that the score should have been a lot closer. The Browns/Bengals game looked that way to me last week. The Bengals probable deserved to lose, but nothing like the score showed.
The gambling industry that set the NFL odds each week keep track of a unique statistic called Rescore. It "re-evaluates" each game played based on turnovers and yards gained/allowed. This makes sense since the oddsmakers must attempt to differentiate an aberration from a trend.
How did the NFL oddsmakers score this game? They scored it 20-19 for Cleveland. Substantially different than the 20-7 score would indicate. Before you say it wasn't close, consider:
Rush Yards:
Cleveland = 75 (2.78 yards per carry)
Cincinnati = 156 yards (5.03 yards per carry)
Pass Yards:
Cleveland = 190 yards (11.2 yards per completion)
Detroit 201 yards (7.7 yards per completion)
Turnover Ratio:
Cleveland +3
Take away the turnovers and this would have likely been a very close game.
The following represents a summary of the games played through week 2. Observations will follow the table.
|
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE------ -----DEFENSIVE-----
AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- --- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Arizona 24-22 24-22 0 160 5.70 143 11.9 102 3.33 333 11.7
Atlanta 24-26 25-27 -1 151 5.03 165 10.3 159 4.59 205 11.1
Baltimore 4-18 14-19 -2 66 3.38 165 9.2 110 3.32 163 9.0
Buffalo 38-38 28-22 1 87 3.76 340 11.1 143 5.40 215 8.8
Carolina 21- 7 23-11 4 110 3.33 215 13.0 75 3.66 131 8.2
Chicago 21-18 20-19 2 93 3.26 212 13.3 129 4.16 182 11.0
Cincinnati 7-27 15-23 -4 96 4.36 184 8.4 158 4.39 175 10.9
Cleveland 30-24 30-30 3 67 2.85 271 12.0 175 5.74 239 10.4
Dallas 16-16 18-17 0 111 4.44 171 12.7 88 2.89 179 10.8
Denver 24-15 22-16 1 153 4.92 143 8.9 52 3.12 243 8.2
Detroit 14-40 9-28 -5 62 3.02 128 8.8 129 3.62 259 13.3
Green Bay 29-35 29-30 -2 153 5.19 268 9.9 163 5.62 203 13.1
Houston 11-17 10-17 -1 84 2.78 76 9.5 140 4.73 128 9.1
Indianapolis 21-23 27-25 -2 124 4.19 246 10.9 141 4.26 202 11.5
Jacksonville 24-22 27-24 1 124 4.07 273 11.6 122 4.36 200 11.4
Kansas City 28-31 30-34 -1 167 5.76 236 13.1 95 3.86 336 12.7
Miami 35-17 26-20 4 173 4.60 193 12.5 97 3.88 248 11.5
Minnesota 31-36 23-29 -4 175 4.92 232 11.3 56 2.78 363 13.2
New England 37-11 35-10 4 113 3.90 275 10.2 53 3.21 189 8.8
New Orleans 31-20 26-20 2 132 4.26 231 11.5 84 3.98 262 9.2
NY Giants 20-19 24-19 1 73 2.43 305 12.2 103 4.88 213 10.1
NY Jets 22-38 13-33 2 53 4.57 181 8.6 153 4.24 256 10.0
Oakland 31-17 29-14 1 158 5.54 286 9.2 58 3.38 172 8.4
Philadelphia 31-17 25-13 4 124 4.96 232 10.5 75 3.49 179 8.9
Pittsburgh 16-30 13-30 -7 73 3.48 205 9.5 79 4.51 325 9.0
St. Louis 19-25 17-26 -3 62 4.13 278 9.6 104 3.23 239 12.0
San Diego 29- 5 23- 8 3 183 4.56 152 10.1 63 3.29 98 8.2
San Francisco 15-19 18-20 1 92 4.09 178 8.3 122 4.21 208 9.9
Seattle 15-28 14-24 2 62 2.76 244 9.4 235 6.27 150 10.3
Tampa Bay 23-13 20-18 1 73 2.86 233 9.0 87 3.20 184 9.2
Tennessee 20-23 20-19 -2 80 3.12 251 10.7 74 3.06 206 12.8
Washington 19-30 19-28 -3 106 4.22 205 9.3 119 4.86 235 11.8
RESCR - rescore of game based on yardage and turnovers.
TO RAT- takeaways minus giveaways
RYPA - rushing yards per attempt
PYPC - passing yards per completion
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Key observations:
A higher rescore indicates that the team is better than they
have played.
Cincinnati rescore = +12 (score 8 more, give up 4 less)
Baltimore rescore = +9 (score 10 more, give up 1 more)
Detroit rescore = +7 (score 5 less, give up 12 less)
Buffalo rescore = +6 (score 10 less, give up 16 less)
Green Bay rescore = +5 (score the same, give up 5 less)
Indianapolis rescore = +4 (score 6 more, give up 2 more)
NY Giants rescore = +4 (score 4 more, give up the same)
Tennessee rescore = +4 (score the same, give up 4 less)
Seattle rescore = +3 (score 1 less, give up 4 less)
San Francisco rescore = +2 (score 3 more, give up 1 more)
Washington rescore = +2 (score the same, give up 2 less)
Dallas rescore = +1 (score 2 more, give up 1 more)
Jacksonville rescore = +1 (score 3 more, give up 2 more)
Minnesota rescore = +1 (score 8 less, give up 9 less)
Oakland rescore = +1 (score 2 less, give up 3 less)
Arizona rescore = 0 (score the same, give up the same)
Atlanta rescore = 0 (score 1 more, give up 1 more)
Houston rescore = -1 (score 1 less, give up the same)
Kansas City rescore = -1 (score 2 more, give up 3 more)
New England rescore = -1 (score 2 less, give up 1 less)
Carolina rescore = -2 (score 2 more, give up 4 more)
Chicago rescore = -2 (score 1 less, give up 1 more)
Philadelphia rescore = -2 (score 6 less, give up 4 less)
Denver rescore = -3 (score 2 less, give up 1 more)
Pittsburgh rescore = -3 (score 3 less, give up the same)
St. Louis rescore = -3 (score 2 less, give up 1 more)
NY Jets rescore = -4 (score 9 less, give up 5 less)
New Orleans rescore = -5 (score 5 less, give up the same)
Cleveland rescore = -6 (score the same, give up 6 more)
Tampa Bay rescore = -8 (score 3 less, give up 5 more)
San Diego rescore = -9 (score 6 less, give up 3 more)
Miami rescore = -12 (score 9 less, give up 3 more)