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Sometimes to find interesting facts/trends you have to look at the data game by game. What follows are NFL Game Logs (used by the gaming industry) for 8 AFC teams and my analysis of what the data is telling us. I will cover the rest of the AFC teams next week.
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BALTIMORE SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 carolina L L -1.5 33.5 7-10 17-18 -1 77 4.05 212 10.6 145 4.03 120 10.0
09/15/02 TAMPA BAY L L 4.5 32.5 0-25 10-19 -1 55 2.75 118 7.4 74 2.47 205 8.5
09/30/02 DENVER W W 9.0 35.5 34-23 16-24 1 84 2.80 146 11.2 97 4.62 306 8.7
10/06/02 cleveland W W 6.5 36.5 26-21 31-22 4 201 5.91 208 10.9 62 3.65 371 12.8
10/13/02 indianapls L W 7.0 43.5 20-22 13-22 -2 105 4.04 139 9.3 60 3.16 257 8.6
10/20/02 JACKSNVLLE W W 1.0 38.5 17-10 18-24 1 118 3.69 143 10.2 173 5.77 224 9.3
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Baltimore 4- 2 17-19 18-22 2 107 3.98 161 10.0 102 3.99 247 9.6
My takes:
- Solid rush defense in 4 of the 6 contests (One of those was without Ray Lewis)
- Last 3 games, the team has rushed for over 100 yards.
- Rescore data shows they should have only have won 1 game.
- Best passing performance is 212 yards.
- Have yielded two 300 yard passing games so far
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BUFFALO SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 NY JETS L L 3.0 42.0 31-37 22-19 -2 142 4.44 242 9.3 73 5.21 193 8.0
09/15/02 minnesota W W 3.5 49.0 45-39 33-24 3 31 2.21 437 12.5 213 5.46 236 9.4
09/22/02 denver L W 8.0 47.0 23-28 17-23 -1 39 2.79 252 9.3 163 5.09 179 9.4
09/29/02 CHICAGO W W -3.0 46.5 33-27 24-16 -1 103 4.12 307 11.0 52 2.00 188 9.9
10/06/02 OAKLAND L L 3.0 53.5 31-49 26-35 -3 80 4.44 399 12.5 142 5.26 353 15.3
10/13/02 houston W P -7.0 44.0 31-24 24-22 -1 173 5.24 230 12.1 141 4.86 197 15.2
10/20/02 miami W W 5.5 46.0 23-10 26-10 6 132 4.89 162 10.8 132 3.88 155 11.9
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Buffalo 4- 2 31-31 25-21 1 100 4.29 290 11.1 131 4.56 214 11.0
My takes:
- Rescore shows they should be 5-2
- Team is inconsistent rushing (Two performances below 40 yards, Three above 130 yards)
- Team is above 4 yards per carry in each of the last 4 weeks.
- Three 300+ yard passing performances
- Team cannot stop the run (5 performances over 130 yards rushing)
- Team + Opponent score has exceeded 50 points in 6 of 7 contests
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CINCINNATI SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 SAN DIEGO L L -3.0 37.5 6-34 11-26 -1 36 2.77 167 9.3 241 5.36 160 10.7
09/15/02 cleveland L L 4.0 38.0 7-20 19-20 -3 156 5.03 201 7.7 75 2.78 190 11.2
09/22/02 atlanta L L 7.5 43.0 3-30 10-22 -2 68 3.40 125 6.9 143 3.97 163 10.2
09/29/02 TAMPA BAY L L 7.0 34.0 7-35 12-21 1 74 2.55 94 7.8 101 3.61 262 13.8
10/06/02 indianapls L W 13.5 43.0 21-28 22-23 -3 173 7.21 237 7.6 87 3.48 224 10.7
10/13/02 PITTSBURGH L L 6.0 41.5 7-34 14-28 -2 78 3.25 190 8.3 211 6.03 197 12.3
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Cincinnati 1- 5 9-30 15-23 -10 98 4.15 169 7.9 143 4.38 199 11.5
My takes:
- Turnover ratio of -10 sticks out
- 2 Great rushing efforts and 4 terrible efforts.
- No 300 yard passing games
- Team has allowed two 200 yard rushing performances already.
- Team has not allowed a 300 yard passing effort yet.
- Rescore data is better, but still says team should be 0-6
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CLEVELAND SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 KAN CITY L L -1.0 36.0 39-40 39-40 0 59 2.95 352 12.6 194 6.47 276 13.8
09/15/02 CINCINNATI W W -4.0 38.0 20- 7 20-19 3 75 2.78 190 11.2 156 5.03 201 7.7
09/22/02 tennessee W W 4.5 40.0 31-28 20-17 -4 92 4.60 311 8.6 86 2.53 101 6.7
09/29/02 pittsburgh L W 6.0 44.0 13-16 13-16 0 123 5.13 122 7.6 93 2.74 265 10.2
10/06/02 BALTIMORE L L -6.5 36.5 21-26 22-31 -4 62 3.65 371 12.8 201 5.91 208 10.9
10/13/02 tampa bay L L 7.0 36.5 3-17 3-17 0 60 3.33 134 6.7 186 4.89 194 12.9
10/20/02 HOUSTON W W -9.0 37.0 34-17 17-20 2 89 3.71 141 6.7 95 4.52 259 11.3
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Cleveland 4- 3 23-22 19-23 -3 80 3.73 232 9.7 144 4.55 215 10.4
My takes:
- Rescore says this team is worse than what they are scoring.
- Team has only 1 rushing game above 100 yards.
- Team has no games with 200-299 yards passing (boom or bust)
- Run defense has been exploited badly (Four games over 150 yards)
- Pass defense has to yield a 300 yard effort.
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DENVER SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 ST. LOUIS W W 3.0 51.0 23-16 23-16 0 104 4.00 187 10.4 32 2.46 295 9.2
09/15/02 san fran W W 3.5 44.5 24-14 20-15 1 201 5.58 98 7.0 71 3.55 190 7.0
09/22/02 BUFFALO W L -8.0 47.0 28-23 23-17 1 163 5.09 179 9.4 39 2.79 252 9.3
09/30/02 baltimore L L -9.0 35.5 23-34 24-16 -1 97 4.62 306 8.7 84 2.80 146 11.2
10/06/02 SAN DIEGO W W -6.0 40.5 26- 9 29-17 2 117 3.77 300 11.5 79 4.39 235 9.0
10/13/02 MIAMI L L -3.5 41.5 22-24 24-17 -1 111 4.27 299 11.1 67 3.05 192 10.1
10/20/02 kan city W P -3.0 50.5 37-34 30-20 -1 141 5.22 366 12.2 162 5.23 143 7.2
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Denver 3- 3 26-22 25-17 1 133 4.69 248 10.3 76 3.61 208 8.9
My takes:
- Passing game has come on strong in the last 4 weeks.
- Consistent rush attack despite a committee approach.
- Rushing defense is awesome (although KC schooled them last week)
- Defense has not allowed a 300 yard passer this season.
- Rescore data says this team should be 7-0
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HOUSTON SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 DALLAS W W 9.5 34.0 19-10 14-15 1 78 2.23 123 12.3 155 6.46 112 8.6
09/15/02 san diego L L 13.5 34.0 3-24 5-19 -2 89 3.56 29 4.8 124 3.54 143 9.5
09/22/02 INDIANAPLS L L 11.0 38.0 3-23 3-23 0 26 0.87 78 6.5 88 3.26 251 12.0
09/29/02 philly L W 19.0 NT 17-35 17-35 0 91 3.79 151 9.4 102 3.52 289 11.6
10/13/02 BUFFALO L P 7.0 44.0 24-31 22-24 1 141 4.86 197 15.2 173 5.24 230 12.1
10/20/02 cleveland L L 9.0 37.0 17-34 20-17 -2 95 4.52 259 11.3 89 3.71 141 6.7
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Houston 2- 3 14-26 14-22 -2 87 3.17 140 10.5 122 4.25 194 10.2
My takes:
- Despite losing by 17 last week, rescore shows they outplayed Cleveland.
- Defense has yielded four 100 yard rushing games, but have allowed less than 4 ypc 4 times.
- Defense has not yielded a 300 yard passing game.
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INDIANAPLS SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 jacksnvlle W L -3.5 43.5 28-25 28-25 0 104 3.71 203 10.7 118 3.69 225 10.2
09/15/02 MIAMI L L -1.5 46.5 13-21 25-24 -2 143 4.61 289 11.1 163 4.79 179 13.8
09/22/02 houston W W -11.0 38.0 23- 3 23- 3 0 88 3.26 251 12.0 26 0.87 78 6.5
10/06/02 CINCINNATI W L -13.5 43.0 28-21 23-22 3 87 3.48 224 10.7 173 7.21 237 7.6
10/13/02 BALTIMORE W L -7.0 43.5 22-20 22-13 2 60 3.16 257 8.6 105 4.04 139 9.3
10/21/02 pittsburgh L L 4.5 46.5 10-28 20-25 -2 72 3.43 295 9.2 182 5.52 182 12.1
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Indianapls 1- 5 21-20 24-19 1 92 3.67 253 10.2 128 4.28 173 9.6
My takes:
- Rushing offense has been ineffective and getting worse. Only one game with more than 4 ypc.
- Passing offense still has not registered a 300 yard game.
- Rush defense has been terrible (3 games over 160 yards allowed)
- Rescore shows that Indianapolis should be 5-1
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JACKSNVLLE SEASON LOG
----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE----
W-L T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
DATE OPPONENT S A LINE TOTL FINAL RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
-------- ---------- - - ----- ---- ----- ----- --- ----------------- -----------------
09/08/02 INDIANAPLS L W 3.5 43.5 25-28 25-28 0 118 3.69 225 10.2 104 3.71 203 10.7
09/15/02 kan city W W 4.0 45.0 23-16 29-20 1 130 4.48 320 12.8 140 5.00 196 12.3
09/29/02 NY JETS W W -3.0 42.0 28- 3 29-17 4 223 5.58 160 16.0 78 3.55 267 12.7
10/06/02 PHILLY W W 3.0 42.0 28-25 28-25 0 70 2.59 197 15.2 199 6.63 207 7.4
10/13/02 tennessee L L -2.0 43.5 14-23 11-24 -1 130 5.00 68 9.7 152 3.80 218 8.4
10/20/02 baltimore L L -1.0 38.5 10-17 24-18 -1 173 5.77 224 9.3 118 3.69 143 10.2
SEASON-TO-DATE TOTALS
-----OFFENSIVE---- ----DEFENSIVE-----
ATS AVG AVG T.O -RUSHING PASSING- -RUSHING PASSING-
W-L SCORE RESCR RAT YDS RYPA YDS PYPC YDS RYPA DEF PYPC
----- ----- ----- --- --------- -------- --------- --------
Jacksnvlle 4- 2 21-19 24-22 3 141 4.59 199 11.8 132 4.39 206 10.0
My takes:
- Hard not to notice how great this team is running the ball.
- Passing Yards Per Completion (PYPC) has declined for the last 4 weeks.
- Defense has not yielded a 300 yard passing game.
- Run Defense has yileded five 100-yard games, but also 4 contests with less than 4 RYPA.