No matter how long or short you have been following football, or even playing fantasy football, there is an expression that I am sure you have no doubt heard in your travels. Defense Wins Championships. In recent years this has been shown by dominant Super Bowl performances by the Baltimore Ravens in 2000, and last years demolition by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This adage isn't necessarily confined to the hallowed turf of the football field. Even in fantasy football, a good scoring defense can be the difference between a playoff team and an also ran. So what do you look for in a defense? First and foremost, it depends on the scoring system of your league. Most leagues will give points for defenses based on sacks, turnovers and special teams. Others will also offer points based on yardage allowed. A little research into the nuances of your league scoring system can make a huge difference come draft day. For the purposes of this analysis, I will be using the scoring system that is currently used in the league I play in.

Defense/Special Teams TD = 6pts
Sack/Int/Safety/Fumble Recovery = 2pts

Points Allowed:
Shutout = 10pts
2-6 = 8pts
7-10 = 6pts
11-14 = 4pts
15-19 = 2pts
20+ = 0pts

Yardage allowed is not considered in this league.

Using the above points system, I am going to analyze the defenses based on certain criteria to determine which team would be best suited to go for in my league. Lets start with turnovers.

Turnovers
In this example, I broke down the takeaways into interceptions, sacks, fumble recoveries, safeties, and defensive touchdowns (this includes kickoff returns) based on the teams 2002 performance and applied this to the scoring system. I have listed the top ten teams below as well as their overall 2002 defensive ranking.

While its no surprise to see high ranked teams like Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Carolina towards the top, its worth noting that mid to lower ranked teams like New Orleans and Atlanta can also score very well in this system. Green Bay also did particularly well. Next lets have a look at points allowed.

Points allowed
The goal of any good defense is to stop the opposition from scoring as much as possible. A great defense will limit their opponents to the bear minimum scoring, with the ultimate goal being a shutout. What I did here was go through each teams schedule for last year and noted the points allowed by their opposition on a week-by-week basis and applied it to the scoring system. For space reasons, I will not list the week-by-week breakdown, but just the total fantasy points scored.

The top 10 teams are below.

Again no surprises towards the top. Atlanta continues to perform well amongst the lower ranked teams, while Miami makes the top 5 this time.

While some people would be satisfied to stop here, I wanted to delve deeper. How are last year's statistics going to help me decide what team to draft THIS year? Here is what I came up with.

2003 Strength Of Schedule - Giveaways
I looked at the upcoming 2003 schedule for each team and looked at their opponents on a week-by-week basis. What I then did was input the giveaways (interceptions, fumbles) allowed by their opponents based on last year and came up with a strength of schedule based on average turnovers allowed. Using this I could determine which teams would face opponents most likely to cough up the football. For space reasons, I will not list the week-by-week breakdown, but just the total average turnovers.

Top 10 teams below.

It appears that NFC West is the place to be this year. Three of the top 4 teams hail from that division, while the fourth, St. Louis, is also in the top 10. Only one team has been top 10 throughout so far and that is Atlanta.

Now lets use the same principle, but this time with sacks allowed.

Strength Of Schedule - Sacks Allowed
If the opposition's offensive line is poor, then it will allow more pressure on the quarterback and increases the chances of both a sack and a turnover. In this instance, I again looked at the 2003 schedule of each team and input the sacks allowed in 2002 by their opponents on a week-by-week basis. This gave me an average number of sacks allowed for the season. For space reasons, I will not list the week-by-week breakdown, but just the total sacks allowed.

Top 10 teams listed below

Anybody in AFC South would have had their stats padded by the fact that the Houston Texans allowed a league record 76 sacks last year, which is why Indianapolis and Jacksonville are ranked 1 and 2 respectively. Again, Atlanta is in the top 10 while the Giants and Miami return.

My final strength of schedule analysis involves opposition scoring

Strength Of Schedule - Scoring allowed
In this analysis, I looked at the 2003 schedule and had a look at the average points per game scored by the opponent on a week-by-week basis. This time however, I allocated points as per the scoring system based on the average opponents points and came up with a total for the season. For space reasons, I will not list the week-by-week breakdown, but just the total fantasy points scored.

Top 10 teams below.

NFC West again features prominently. The top defenses return to the top 10 here, and the old favorite Atlanta is still here.

Now I have all this data together, how do I use it? Well what I did was get an overall ranking based on 2 different ranking systems. The first I used was a rotisserie system, where the top ranked team gets 32 points, 2nd gets 31 and so on down to 1 point for last. Where 2 or more teams have the same fantasy points total, I averaged the total roto points amongst the teams equally. For example if two teams had the same fantasy score but had roto scores of 10 and 9, I would allocate (10+9)/2 = 9.5 roto points each.

In the second system, I took the average fantasy totals across the entire league for that category and used that as a baseline. What I then did was subtract that league average from the totals per team. This would give each team a +/- score compared to the average. I then merely added up all the +/- scores.

Using systems, here is how the top 10 teams were ranked.

What I then did was to take teams that featured in both columns for some final analysis. These teams were:

Atlanta, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Green Bay and Miami.

In trying to narrow this down to the final three, I decided to look at any offseason player moves that may help/hinder the team's defense from last year, quality of the pass rush and overall quality of defensive personnel. After long and careful consideration, my top 3 defenses I would draft would be…

Carolina
With the tandem pass rush of Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, there are going to be few teams who can keep one or both of these players quiet for an entire game. Peppers was awesome up until the time he was suspended for steroids, and Rucker led the league for defensive lineman in tackles. Defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Brentson Buckner also produced good numbers. With a rejuvenated offense thanks to the acquisition of Stephen Davis, the defense won't be relied on so heavily to keep the Panthers in the game. If linebacker Dan Morgan can stay healthy for a season, this might be an even more potent unit. Steve Smith is also a huge kick return threat.

Tampa Bay
Greatest defense of all time? That's debatable, but they are certainly a consensus number one defense in a lot of people's eyes. Simeon Rice was in devastating form last year with 16 sacks, and Derrick Brooks bounced back with 4 TDs from interception returns. Its unlikely that both will be able to repeat those numbers, but the sheer intimidation of the Bucs is enough to force any quarterback to panic. The secondary is also exceptional, with John Lynch and Ronde Barber leading the way.

Miami
The Dolphins strengthened an already solid defense by adding solid veterans Sammy Knight and Junior Seau in the offseason Some may say that both are too old, but I think they still have some zip in those old legs. Jason Taylor is a sack machine up front, with Adewale Ogunleye providing more than capable support. Seau and Zach Thomas will form the corps of an excellent linebacking unit. Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain is possibly the best cornerback duo in the league, and with Knight and Brock Marion in the secondary as well, the Dolphins have one of the most complete defenses in the league.

Of the remainder, I would rank them in this order…

1. Atlanta
2. Philadelphia
3. Green Bay.

I know a lot of people would rank Philadelphia higher but I think the loss of Hugh Douglas and Shawn Barber will be too great to compensate for this year.

If you are after a really rough sleeper, I'd keep an eye on Kansas City. Yes, they were woeful last year, but they managed to pick up the prized free agents in Vonnie Holliday and Shawn Barber, as well as Dexter McCleon. They also have Ryan Sims and Jerome Woods returning from injury. They won't dazzle just yet, but they are sure to be a much improved unit.

I know this has been long, and I thank you for reading this far. I hope that my efforts will help you in determining which defense you should be looking out for this year.