This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for next week and the rest of the year. Quarterbacks: I won’t go straight by the numbers here, because the biggest overachiever in week one was Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb will probably be on the bench by the end of this month, and doesn’t have much long term value unless he keeps playing the way he did Sunday. At QB, Garcia and Warner were both big disappointments, but we’ll take a look at Warner because he was the number one QB on just about everyone’s cheatsheet. Kurt Warner     Projected: 1st     Finished: 24th Stats: 32-41, 315 pass yards, 1 INT; 1 carry, 8 rush yards. Reason for projection: Unless you’ve been living under a rock, the St. Louis Rams have had the top passing attack in the league for the past three years. Warner threw for 4830 yards last year, and his main weapons are all back. Why he busted: Warner was sacked three times in the first half, and had defenders in his face almost all game. Ray Rhodes is one of the top defensive coordinators in the game, and had ample time to prepare for the Rams offense (Marshall Faulk was also shut down). A pass to Isaac Bruce that could have led to a big gain was dropped and intercepted. Future Outlook: How many other QBs could “bust” with a 300 yard passing game? While it’s easy to just say it was a fluke game, there are a couple of worrisome issues here. One, the Rams offensive line took a hit in the offseason, and it showed on Sunday. They need to protect Warner, who has a history of thumb problems. Also, the Rams offense has now looked human in their last two showings—against the Patriots and the Broncos. Are teams figuring out how to play against the Rams? While these are real doubts that should creep into the minds of Warner owners, he is still the top fantasy QB in the league. No one figured the Rams out the last three years, and they have the top weapons in the league. Martz is very aggressive, and loves to pass with Warner. His 42 pass attempts were a good sign, and while I would be disappointed with his TD-less game, no need to panic—yet. Next week however, may be another downer for Warner. Last year the Giants (who shut down Jeff Garcia last week) held Warner to 316 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT, almost identical numbers to what he did against Denver. Still, you obviously never bench Warner. With a very tough schedule this year he won’t be breaking records, but should still be in the running for top QB. Michael Vick     Projected: 24th     Finished: 3rd Stats: 15-23, 290 pass yards, 1 touchdown. 9 carries, 72 rush yards, 1 touchdown. Reason for projection: Vick was facing his first NFL opener in one of the most difficult places to play, Lambeau Field. With a very unproven group of WRs going against a top NFC team, many didn’t like Vick’s chances. Why he broke out: Because he’s Michael Vick! Vick surpassed just about everyone’s expectations for week one, and completed all ten of his passes in the first half. His passing numbers were pedestrian, but his running ability made him a great fantasy quarterback. He finished with the same number of points as Shane Matthews, who threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Future Outlook: I was one of the Vick doubters before the season began. He’s too young. He played only two years in a very basic offense at college. He has no wide receivers. Yes it’s only week one, but I’m converted. Michael Vick is an unbelievable athlete, and should be a great quarterback in the NFL. The Falcons had several costly drops, or he could have had an even bigger day. It’s doubtful you can get him for cheap right now, but his potential is a lot higher than the meager 200 passing yards from Sunday. With a game against Chicago’s fast LBs this week, Vick may have a harder time rushing for 70 yards. Still, I think Vick has matured a lot faster than any of us expected, and he has a very real chance of being a top 10 QB this season if he can get any sort of help from his wide receivers. After watching him Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finishes in the top five. Just remember that he’s a very young QB with a weak supporting cast, but that’s the only reason you may want to temper your expectations. Runningbacks: If you go by just the numbers, you would see Curtis Martin as the biggest underachiever, and Robert Edwards as the biggest overachiever. Since the point of this article is to help you, the fantasy player the most, I won’t go strictly by the numbers. Robert Edwards isn’t a fantasy starter, and only scored his points because the game was a blowout. Curtis Martin was injured in the first half and is the reason for his low numbers. Thus, the biggest overachiever that has use to your fantasy squad, is Warrick Dunn. Corey Dillon played all game and was ranked 9th, but disappointed. These are the type of circumstances we want to look at. Corey Dillon:     Projected: 9th     Finished: 56th Stats: 9 carries, 10 yards; 3 receptions, 22 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Corey Dillon is the type of runner that you never want to take out of your lineup, and can explode at any moment. Dillon was playing the Chargers who have a good defense but not a great one. Last year on opening day he totaled over 130 yards and one score. Dillon is definitely one of the top 10 fantasy backs in the league. Why he busted: He’s Corey Dillon. To those who don’t know, Dillon has a history of awful games. This was his third sub-ten yard game in the past four seasons. The Bengals fell behind early (not something new here), and they abandoned the run much earlier than normal. When he did run, the Chargers were all over him and the Cincinnati line looked awful. The entire offense had an atrocious game. Future Outlook: After rushing for 12 yards against Baltimore in 2000, Dillon ran for over 100 the following week in Miami. After seeing what Priest Holmes did to the Browns last week, I wouldn’t want to see my opponent having Corey Dillon this week. The Bengals don’t consistently win, and Dillon doesn’t consistently put up fantasy points. While it’s upsetting to see a star RB put up such a dud in week one, Dillon owners shouldn’t overreact. Dillon rushed for over 1400 yards in 2000, a career best. He opened the season with games of 41, 32 and 9 yards through the first three weeks. He posted TWO 200 yard rushing performances the rest of the year, including an NFL record 278 rushing yards. He is the Bengals offense, and they will give him the rock. Status quo for Dillon in Cincy. Warrick Dunn     Projected: 30th     Finished: 7th Stats: 15 carries, 69 yards; 4 receptions, 19 yards, 2 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Dunn was facing a Packers’ defense that was in the top five in points allowed in 2001. There was a question of how many carries he would get this week, with rookie TJ Duckett in the mix. With Michael Vick starting for just the third time in his career, against a very good Packers team, the Falcons outlook didn’t look very good. Why he broke out: Dunn scored two touchdowns, and ran the ball very effectively. Michael Vick and Dunn both looked great as the Falcons took the Packers to overtime. Dunn can be explosive, and it’s clear the Packers weren’t able to stop him on Sunday. Future Outlook: For Dunn owners, the length of his touchdowns should make them just as happy as the fact that he scored: Both of Dunn’s TDs came from within the three yard line. TJ Duckett gets tired easily, so Dunn will get his share of carries (although Duckett will as well). There are questions about Duckett’s ability at the goal line though, and if Dunn stays in during goal line sets, his value rises quite a bit. Still, he has only run for more than 4 TDs once in his career. With a game against the tough Bears defense this weekend, Dunn will be hard pressed to have another impressive game. The Falcons are likely to give the bigger Duckett additional carries which effectively limits Dunn’s upside. This game may end up being his best of the year, but his value does go up compared to where it was a week ago. Wide Receivers: For Wide receivers, Owens’ performance was certainly the most disappointing of all the wide receivers in the league. Likewise, Quincy Morgan went from off the radar screen to first. Terrell Owens     Projected: 1st     Finished: 52nd Stats: 4 catches, 41 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: Owens’ was ranked first among WRs for two reasons. One, Randy Moss was on the road against a good Bears team. Second, Owens is one of the top three receivers in the league, and able to carry a fantasy football team with his three touchdown performances. Owens was going up against what looked to be a very poor Giants team. Why he busted: The Giants played a very good defensive game, and focused on stopping Owens. They double and tripled teamed him, and no 49er made them pay. Garcia kept looking towards Owens, and sometimes forced him the ball, but they didn’t connect for much. WRs are very inconsistent, and this is just one of those bad games for Owens(last year he had three games where he averaged 4 catches, 49 yards, 0 TDs) Future Outlook: While some may panic about the slow start by Owens, there’s not much to be worried about. When a WR gets doubled teamed all day and doesn’t produce, you wonder if that’s going to happen all year. Being double teamed hasn’t stopped Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss or Terrell Owens in the past, and it isn't likely to stop him now. Owens is a great physical talent, and his owners just have to accept the bad games a star WR will have every once in awhile. On the bright side, the running game didn’t look dominant, and Garcia kept looking his way. An active Owens should never be out of your lineup, and week one’s game shouldn’t change how you value him. Quincy Morgan     Projected: Unranked     Finished: 1st Stats: 9 catches, 151 yards, 2 touchdowns Reason for projection: Quincy Morgan was a relative unknown to most fantasy football players, and last year caught only thirty passes. With Tim Couch out, few believed the Cleveland Browns could have a respectable passing attack, let alone have one of the best in the league for week one. Why he broke out: The Chiefs couldn’t stop anyone all day, and the Browns wide receivers decimated Kansas City’s secondary. Even without the trick play TD pass from Kevin Johnson, Morgan still broke 100 yards. Morgan was pretty much unstoppable, in a shootout that was one of the league’s most exciting games. Future Outlook: The first thing a lot of you are probably wondering, is WHO IS QUINCY MORGAN? Here’s a little background, something I wrote about Morgan a few weeks ago for this site: The 6’1 Morgan didn’t do much last year, despite starting nine games. However, things improved across the board for Morgan this year. The former Wildcat has gotten stronger and faster, adding to his already impressive physical talents. The questions are still there about his hands and route running, but those things can be improved in his second season. He’s a great athlete, and if he could become a good wide receiver he’d move Kevin Johnson to number 2, and then out of Cleveland. Still, I like Morgan’s chances more once Johnson leaves, and once he gets a little more experience. Morgan was a very talented college receiver, and he worked hard this offseason to become a very talented NFL receiver. There’s just no denying the player’s skills, and it’s certainly possible that he at least becomes 1A to Kevin Johnson. However, the Browns passing attack never looked so good (and probably won’t again), so his upside will be limited. With a game against Cincinnati this weekend, Morgan is a must start. I would look for a solid sophomore campaign from Morgan, with a chance to get 1000 yards. Chase Stuart Exclusive to Footballguys.com