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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: This week saw everyone without direct TV doubting their box scores. Brad Johnson, Jon Kitna and Tom Brady throw fourteen touchdowns without a single pick. Meanwhile, the only quarterback that hadn't thrown an interception this year finally showed the world he was human. Michael Vick Projected: 2nd Finished: 27th Stats: 12-24, 134 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 7 carries, -5 rush yards Reason for projection: The Baltimore Ravens are not a very good team without all world linebacker Ray Lewis, and had been torn apart by Pittsburgh a week ago. Michael Vick was coming off two games that had the whole country talking about the future of the NFL most electric young star. At home with his top running back returning to the lineup, it looked like nothing would stop Mike Vick. Why he busted: A combination of the Ravens secondary playing well and Vick having an "off" game. Let's not forget that his main target on Sunday was Trevor Gaylor. Vick has never accumulated great passing totals, and until he gets a good receiver the Falcon star earn his lofty fantasy status with his feet. Against Baltimore, he didn't run for a touchdown or a single yard. Future outlook: It's hard to say what Vick will do this weekend in Pittsburgh. I think he'll have a pretty difficult time facing the speedy Steeler linebackers, but he's the type of player that you never want to bench. I've been a big Vick supporter all year, and I believe he'll be very good the rest of the way. If he does have an off game this week (as I suspect he might) consider it a great time to pickup Vick for a little below market value for the stretch run. Jon Kitna Projected: 27th Finished: 3rd Stats: 22-27, 267 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT; 2 carries, 1 rush yd Reason for projection: Jon Kitna was the worst fantasy quarterback in the league last year, in terms of fantasy points per pass. He's been benched, and brought back to play for the worst team in the league. The Bengals were winless, going on the road. Why he broke out: Kitna's QB rating of 146.8 is almost as good as it gets. Kitna will likely never play this well again, as everything went right for him against the expansion Texans. The Bengals have showed some offensive ability the last two weeks, against some pretty bad defenses. Finding Michael Westbrook in the end zone a couple of times capped off the best day by a Bengal QB in years. Future outlook: With a game against the team that just shut down "the phenom", I'm not sure what Kitna's chances are in Baltimore. Kitna has a serviceable group of wide receivers, and I don't see the Bengals running out many games this year. That formula means he'll have a chance to play well in a pinch, and is a decent starter against weak teams if you're desperate. Running Backs: As we moved into November, we saw some familiar things. Marshall Faulk, Antowain Smith and Tiki Barber finished in the top six over the last half of last year, and were the top three running backs this week. A couple of AFC East runningbacks were unable to do much in blowouts this week. While Travis Henry was ranked a few of spots higher, there isn't much to say. The Bills simply had an off week, and were beaten in every aspect of the game. Now they have an off week to get things back on track, and after the bye week Henry will be a must start. Ricky Williams on the other hand… Ricky Williams Projected: 6th Finished: 26th Stats: 14 carries, 47 yards; 4 receptions, 23 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Ricky was running against a Packers defense that has been hurt by injuries, and is the entire Dolphins offense with Jay Fiedler injured. Last week, the Dolphins handed Ricky the ball 25 times in a losing effort. On the road on Monday night, Miami looked to run as much as possible. Why he busted: It's very hard to run where there are eight men in the box. There's no room for Williams to run, as Ray Lucas has looked just awful in his two starts. The Dolphins fell behind early, and never mounted any serious drives. Williams could never get going on the ground, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Future outlook: The Dolphins travel to NY, and the Jets are flying high after stopping LaDainian Tomlinson. It's hard to like Williams' chances right now, but he did run all over New York for 151 yards earlier this year. Teams will continue to dare Lucas to beat them, and until he does so Ricky will have a difficult time running the ball. Ricky is the goalline back, so the fact that he can always get a few short TDs makes him hard to bench. The schedule after the Jets game isn't easy, and we have yet to see Ricky take a team on his shoulders and carry them to victory. Pat yourself on the back if you traded Ricky early on this year, after his excellent start. His future is cloudy right now, but if I owned him I wouldn't trade him. It's doubtful you can get fair market value for him right now. Antowain Smith Projected: 22nd Finished: 1st Stats: 29 carries, 111 yards, 1 TD; 5 catches, 31 yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Antowain Smith had yet to have a big game this year, and the Patriots seemed more content to pass than run. Smith had only reached paydirt once this season, and this game seemed to be all about the quarterbacks. On top of things, the Red Sox had won a game more recently than the Pats, who were in an awful nosedive. Why he broke out: Smith had two receiving touchdowns, as the Patriots ate the Bills up with the short passing game all day. Smith was a workhorse, touching the ball 34 times and scoring on three of them. Future outlook: While Antowain Smith had been a bust before this week, I felt confident he would turn it around. The Patriots will do what worked for them last year, and that means relying on the running game. As the weather gets colder, I think the Pats will use him even more. It's probably too late to buy low on Antowain, but I do believe he will be a very valuable back to have in the second half this season. Wide Receivers: Familiar names such as Keyshawn, Terrell and Marvin topped the receiving leaderboard this week. A few other familiar names, Moss and Boston, continued their disappointing seasons with poor weeks. In addition, we saw a backup QB continue to hook up with the breakout wide receiver of the week. Travis Taylor Projected: 42nd Finished: 2nd Stats: 4 catches, 127 yards, 1 touchdown Reason for projection: That touchdown you see above was the first one this year for Taylor. Taylor had disappointed owners this year, and was facing a pretty good team in Atlanta. With backup quarterback Jeff Blake in, there didn't appear to be a lot going for Taylor. Why he broke out: Taylor and Blake are connecting right now, as this is his second straight positive outing. Taylor had a 64 yard touchdown, and Blake is certainly capable of making the occasional big play. Future Outlook: Todd Heap is probably still the main target on the team, but Jeff Blake clearly likes Travis Taylor. Optimists will point to the fact that the former Gator is in his third year, and a high end first round pick. Is the talent starting to show, or was he just a product of a Steve Spurrier college offense? It's hard to say, but there's no reason Taylor should be on your waiver wire. If you're thin at wide receiver, Taylor may be a guy to try and get cheap and hope things work out. Right now I'll stay cautiously optimistic on Taylor, who was a sleeper on quite a few cheatsheets this August (including mine). David Boston Projected: 7th Finished: 71st Stats: 1 catch, 14 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: He used to be good, remember? This ranking was based on what Boston had done last year, the Rams defense, and the fact that Boston had started to heat up the previous two weeks. Why he busted: Boston is a shell of his former self right now. He dropped two easy passes, and was only targeted four times. Boston is slowed by his foot injury, and held back by one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league. There is no reason for teams to respect Plummer or the running game, and it is hard for Boston to get into any sort of rhythm. Future Outlook: With a RB surplus, I traded Fred Taylor for David Boston early in the season. I sympathize with the Boston owners, and right now I will continue to play him every week. Boston won't reach any of the lofty expectations most had for him this year, and he's going to have a tough time producing each week unless things change drastically. With the Cardinals winning, you would think Boston would be at his best since he is finally playing for something. The drops worry me, but Jake Plummer has played terribly this year. Boston has had some decent yardage this year, and hopefully he can reach the end zone soon. The next three weeks he lines up against Shawn Springs, the Eagles great secondary, and Charles Woodson. Boston deserves to be in your lineup because of his potential, but don't be surprised if he doesn't break out of his slump anytime soon. Boston didn't luck into a monster season last year; he's one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in the league. However, there is precedent for a nagging injury to curtail production: In between 14 and 13 touchdown seasons in 1998 and 2000, Terrell Owens had a four touchdown season in 1999. If Boston continues to have a down year, expect some people to cite a well-documented drug history as well. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |