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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: Everyone is talking about Tommy Maddox and Marc Bulger this week. They started the year on the bench and both had done nice jobs filling in, but no one foresaw their 400 yard performances. While these two have gone from backups to studs, Daunte Culpepper is awful close to going from stud to backup. Daunte Culpepper Projected: 6th Finished: 24th Stats: 9-20, 91 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT; 6 carries, 42 rush yards Reason for projection: While Culpepper may have had some recent struggles, he is still one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the league, capable of a monster game at any time. The Giants D had allowed 174 rushing yards from QBs in the past two weeks, and that looked to play right in to Daunte's strength. Why he busted: Culpepper has had some problems all year, but Sunday he hit rock bottom. He was too quick to take off and run, and when he did throw the ball he didn't throw it well. His confidence is disappearing rapidly and he makes rash, panicky decisions. He was benched in the third quarter, and it may not be the last time that happens. Future outlook: Culpepper is officially a mess. He is struggling worse than ever and his job may be in danger. He does not belong in a fantasy starting lineup right now. However, remember that this is Daunte Culpepper we are discussing. He has incredible ability and Randy Moss at his disposal. And, as we have seen in the past, he can be ineffective as a real-life QB but still put up good fantasy numbers. There is too much upside to send Daunte packing for spare change. Keep him on the bench and hope for a turnaround - just don't bank on one. If you don't have much else besides Culpepper, run to pick up Bouman right away. Tommy Maddox Projected: 14th Finished: 1st Stats: 28-41, 473 pass yards, 4 TD, 1 INT; 2 carries, 7 rush yards Reason for projection: Maddox had been an effective QB since taking over as starter in Pittsburgh, but had yet to show great fantasy potential. Placing him in the middle of the rankings seemed about right, against a hot Atlanta team. Why he broke out: : It all came together for the Steelers passing attack. Atlanta wasn't able to get after Maddox, so it was easy for him to fall in to a rhythm. He threw the ball brilliantly, Plaxico Burress had the game of his life with 253 receiving yards, and Hines Ward turned in his usual solid performance. When it was all said and done, Maddox had broken the Steeler record for passing yardage in a game, and left many a fantasy owner smiling. Future outlook: While Maddox is never going to match his performance from Sunday, there are many reasons for optimism. Burress is a freakishly talented receiver who seems to finally be realizing his enormous potential, and the steady, dependable Ward makes a perfect compliment. Maddox's confidence in his receivers and in himself has to be growing quickly, as does the coaching staff's willingness to let him air it out. Some may be hesitant to jump on the bandwagon of a player with such a shaky history, but remember that two of the last three Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks who began the season as unheralded backups. The bottom line is that Maddox has the arm strength, accuracy, and supporting cast to be a very good fantasy QB. Running Backs: Many elite backs had less than stellar weeks, but they all had excuses. Faulk got hurt. Green got to sit in the 2nd half of a blowout. Holmes got his best plays nullified by penalties. So instead, we will focus on a guy that truly fits the underachiever label in Thomas Jones. On the positive side, we look at a back that seems to be shedding his underachiever tag, Michael Bennett. Thomas Jones Projected: 19th Finished: 48th Stats: 11 carries, 24 yards; 3 catches, 8 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: While Jones had done little recently to be excited about, his owners certainly remembered the way he torched the Seahawks for 173 yards and a score in week 2. With Seattle struggling and its linebackers dropping like flies, this looked like the perfect opportunity for Jones to get back on track. Why he busted: Same old story from Jones. Tentative running, no explosiveness, no sign of that stud back that everyone keeps hoping he can be. Fantasy owners are getting tired of waiting, as are the Cardinals, who benched him in the second half for Marcel Shipp. Future outlook: Shipp clearly ran harder and better than Jones, and had he not fumbled twice near the goal line, the Arizona RB controversy would likely be over. Those fumbles give Jones a glimmer of hope, but will probably only delay the inevitable. All Shipp has to do is learn to hold on to the ball and the job will be his. Jones, on the other hand, has had plenty of opportunities. The harsh truth is that he probably doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in the NFL. He is probably worth hanging on to just because any back with a shot at a starting job has some value, but it shouldn't be long before Shipp is the man. Perhaps Jones will reach his potential down the road with another team, but I don't see him ever holding much fantasy value as a Cardinal. Michael Bennett Projected: 24th Finished: 4th Stats: 15 carries, 167 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 catches, 9 yards Reason for projection: While Bennett is impressive, he has not been a full time RB. Moe Williams always seems to steal a few carries, most importantly the critical ones at the goal line. Why he broke out: Bennett turned in his third straight 100 yard performance, and broke off a 78 yard TD run late in the game. He is finally starting to look more like a complete RB instead of just a sprinter, and this development may continue in the coming weeks. Future outlook: Bennett has showed some flashes of brilliance over the past few weeks, and with the problems Culpepper is having, the Vikings may shift their offensive philosophy towards the running game. However there are still some concerns. He is a small runner who lacks power, and he may never be a workhorse back. Williams vultured a TD from him again on Sunday, and with Culpepper around as well, Bennett has almost no chance of getting goal line work. His production will continue to depend on long runs and that makes him somewhat risky. Bennett is an exciting player who makes a nice RB2, but he isn't quite ready for stardom, at least not yet. Wide Receivers: The absolute monster days turned in by studs Burress, Bruce and Harrison obscured some nice performances by unheralded receivers like Hakim, Jefferson, and Wayne. A lot of big names had mediocre days, but there were very few real busts. Az-Zahir Hakim Projected: 36th Finished: 6th Stats: 7 catches, 143 yards, 1 TD Reason for projection: Hakim came in ice cold, with just 6 catches for 63 yards and a TD in his previous three games. In Lambeau against a gritty Packers D did not figure to be the week for Az to break his slump. Why he broke out: Hakim caught the Pack napping on the Lions first offensive play, blowing by everyone for a 64 yard TD catch. He remained Joey Harrington's favorite target as Detroit played from behind all day, somewhat by default as no other Lion could catch anything. Future Outlook: Hakim should not be a #1 WR in the NFL, but the Lions don't have much choice. Bill Schroeder has battled injuries and drops, Germane Crowell hasn't been healthy for a long time, and Mikhael Ricks doesn't block well enough to play TE full time. Hakim is the only receiver Harrington has been able to develop any kind of rapport with, and as long as that remains the case he stands to get a lot of work. He is a solid start against the right matchups, and with that big play speed, don't be surprised if Hakim has another big game or two this year. James Thrash Projected: 21st Finished: 84th Stats: 1 catch, 9 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Thrash came in as Philadelphia's top receiver, and Indianapolis has not been known for playing great defense. He looked like a decent play, especially in front of a home crowd. Why he busted: The Eagles did not show up to play football on Sunday. They were manhandled in every phase of the game by the Colts. Thrash was just one of many underachievers on his team, as Philly continues to play down to their level of competition. Future Outlook: Thrash caught a TD pass in each of his first four games. You probably should have sold high at that point, because since then he has been almost invisible. So which is the real James Thrash? The answer probably lies somewhere in between. McNabb and Thrash seem to have lost the rhythm they had early in the year, but if they find it again, Thrash is capable of some pretty good numbers. Philadelphia has a lot of competition for catches, so there are no guarantees he will produce, but now seems like a pretty good time to try to buy low. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |