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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: The first quarterback taken in each of the past three drafts had top five fantasy performances on Sunday. There weren't many high yardage totals this week (only three passers topped 300 yards), but the story of the week was the injury bug. Pennsylvania had their own Black Sunday, as both the Eagles and Steelers lost their quarterbacks, due to serious injury. As for the bust of the week…hey, didn't you used to be Drew Bledsoe? Drew Bledsoe Projected: 5th Finished: 23rd Stats: 24-36, 225 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 2 carries, 7 rush yards Reason for projection: Bills-Chiefs! Highlighted as a fantasy heaven, this game featured two of the most one-dimensional teams in the league. Bledsoe has had great success this year, and surely after a bye week the Bills offense would come out as strong as it's looked all year against a poor Kansas City defense, right? Why he busted: The Bills weren't going to let another blowout develop, and facing the potent Chiefs offense Buffalo had a conservative game plan. They tried to run the ball and keep Kansas City's offense off the field, which worked fairly well. Couple that with some bad luck and too many penalties, and Bledsoe had a weak fantasy day. Future outlook: The Bills remaining schedule is not an easy one, starting with a rematch against New York. Bledsoe didn't impress on opening day, and the Jets are looking a lot better as of late. Next up, a great secondary and a great defensive mind as the Bills host Miami before a trip to Foxboro. If the Bills are still in the race at this point, they host the Flutie-Rob Johnson bowl as the Chargers come to town. Ok, that game may have lost some steam but it's clear Drew has a tough schedule coming up. His fantasy Superbowl (week 16) comes in Lambeau field. As the weather gets colder, and teams get more film on this Bills offense, I think the odds are stacked against seeing the Bledsoe of the first half of the season. On the plus side, on an offense that should send at least four players to Honolulu, I do think Bledsoe has the ability to carry this team. However, this is a young, inexperienced team with a green coach. Tread cautiously, and consider selling high. David Carr Projected: 22nd Finished: 1st Stats: 22-30, 228 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 7 carries, 33 rush yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Over the last three weeks (including a game against Jacksonville) Carr hadn't thrown for 200 yards once, and had a touchdown/interception ratio of 2/4. Carr had not just been a fantasy backup, he had been a fantasy nightmare. Why he broke out: : While Carr's passing numbers weren't much better than the norm, he was able to run for a couple of touchdowns. He was the Texans field general, and led them well. A lot of short passes led to an accurate and effective day from Carr, who lacked the weapons to pull out a victory. Future outlook: Carr WILL be a fantasy weapon at some point in his career. Sooner or later, he will find himself on the right team at the right time. Clearly, that's not the case now. The fact that he built his breakout game with a couple of rushing scores, makes me even less confident in him than if he had thrown for 300 and 3 TDs. At home against the Giants, I don't think Carr will be able to mount much. He might end the season on a high note, as he finishes with home games against Baltimore and Tennessee, and a game in Washington. In a dynasty league, performances like this make you happy; in a redraft, "sell high." Running Backs: Not a lot of surprises this week, but we'll focus on a couple of backs whose roles appears to be going in opposite ways. On a side note, is Charlie Garner the most underrated runningback in the league? His 5.7 yards per carry absolutely crush the competition: Clinton Portis is second at 5.0, Priest Holmes is at 4.4, and Ladainian Tomlinson at 4.5. Receiving? Garner leads all runningbacks in receiving yards, and his yards per catch (10.5) dwarfs the rest of the backs as well (Holmes 8.4, Tomlinson 7.3). The Raiders almost certainly underutilize Garner (16 touches a game), a phenomenon for which I have no explanation. This reminds me of the Rams and Marshall Faulk early in the year and Garner owners can only hope he can start getting more touches. Fred Taylor Projected: 13th Finished: 37th Stats: 13 carries, 56 yards; 0 catches, 0 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: There's not much surprise with Fred Taylor. He has the "potential" tag on him, which says two things about him. He's one of the top backs in the league when he gets the ball 25 times a game, but he hasn't done it nearly enough to shed his "potential" tag. A healthy Taylor against the Texans would be good, but Taylor is not the everydown back (more on that below). Why he busted: Two zeroes. As in zero receptions, and zero touchdowns. It's impossible for a runningback to be a major fantasy success if he can't either catch the ball or score touchdowns. Taylor ran fine when he was given the ball, which was just thirteen times. Future outlook: Stacey Mack is a serious problem to Fred Taylor owners. Right now, it doesn't look like Taylor has any chance of being a consistent touchdown threat. Consider this: if you coached the Jaguars, and had Taylor and Mack, wouldn't you save Taylor the beating down near the goalline and put in a very capable Stacey Mack? Until an injury occurs, I'm not high on either player. However, dynasty leaguers should take note: Fred Taylor will probably be the main man next year, as it's doubtful that both Taylor and Mack will be in Jacksonville next year. If you own both and don't know which one to play, I'd say the fact that Mack is getting the same number of carries means he may be the guy to start each week. Sad to think we'd bench a healthy Fred Taylor, isn't it? Duce Staley Projected: 24th Finished: 4th Stats: 31 carries, 136 rush yards, 0 TD; 3 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD Reason for projection: Staley had been invisible for the past two weeks, with just twenty five carries for fifty four yards. Only a game against Arizona made him appear to be a serviceable starter, as the Eagles were in a mini-slump. Why he broke out: With an injured McNabb and a great matchup, the Eagles ran early and often. Staley didn't rush for a touchdown, but did catch one. The thirty-four touches are a very good sign, and he is certainly a capable NFL back. Future outlook: Staley has been very inconsistent the past few years, but he is now the focal point of the Eagles offense. With McNabb out for the rest of the regular season, Philly will rely much more on Duce than Detmer. I think Staley is a great guy to have down the stretch, as I fully expect the Eagles to try and win tight games with a good running game and a great defense. The schedule isn't bad, and there's no Donovan to vulture touchdowns. I would have no problems starting Staley every week for the rest of the year. Wide Receivers: First things first: Kudos to footballguys. Their top three receivers were Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens and Hines Ward. While not in that order, those were the top three receivers for week 11. Buyer beware: The last two weeks, I have said kind words about Az Hakim and David Boston. They both are now out for the season, so let's hope the third time is the charm. It's got to be pretty rough being famous for two negative events: being the wide receiver drafted ahead of Randy Moss, and being the player tackled at the one yard line to cost his team the Super Bowl. Today, I'll say some nice things about Kevin Dyson-next week, he may be out for the year. Kevin Dyson Projected: 45th Finished: 4th Stats: 8 catches, 87 yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Dyson is the number two wide receiver, and the Titans offense was going up against the modern version of the Steel Curtain. Pittsburgh has dominated the Titans of late, and it was hard to see Dyson having a big game against the Steelers. Why he broke out: It seemed as though McNair would look for the open receiver, not key on Dyson. The Titans passed quite a bit on the Steelers, and it just so happened that the open receiver by the goal line was Kevin Dyson. Future Outlook: I think there's a pretty clear limit to his potential, but it's nice to see a great day from Dyson. The Titans number 2 WR won't have a lot of value, and Dyson isn't a great red zone threat. It is possible that McNair gains faith in Dyson, but I find it hard to believe that one great game by Dyson changes how things have been for years. Things like this happen, like Wayne Chrebet's two touchdown game in Detroit. Status quo for Dyson, although I'd feel a little better starting him this week. Peerless Price Projected: 5th Finished: 61st Stats: 4 catches, 40 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Price and Moulds had been two of the top receivers in fantasy football, and had earned the label of must start every week with their great first halves. Why he busted: Things are not going well in Buffalo. Their last win was in October. They have scored one touchdown in each of their last two games. Why the Bills may have outplayed the Chiefs, it was more because of their improving defense. Bledsoe looked more to Moulds against KC, a trend we may see continue as the games begin to count more. Future Outlook: It's unfair to discount what happened in the first eight games, but Buffalo is clearly lost on offense. They are no longer the NY version of the Fun N Gun: as the weather gets colder in Buffalo, I would expect more of Travis Henry, and less of Peerless Price. Price could have a nice game this weekend, as the Jets can get beat via the longball, but overall I don't like Price's schedule for most fantasy playoffs/super bowl. Hope for a big week, then try and trade for a true stud wideout. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |