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This year we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: Aaron Brooks, Drew Bledsoe and Peyton Manning all had poor weeks for fantasy teams, as each of them fell below projections by at least fifteen spots. While Bledsoe fell the most, I talked about him last week and not much has changed. Right now I wouldn't feel very comfortable starting him in a must win game. Aaron Brooks clearly needs the help of Deuce McCallister, so he'll get a free pass this time. On the other side, Matt Hasselbeck and Koy Detmer were big surprises this week, with their top five finish. If Detmer hadn't gotten hurt, he probably would have been the boom of the week. Peyton Manning Projected: 4th Finished: 23rd Stats: 27-44, 229 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 6 carries, 22 rush yards Reason for projection: Colts-Broncos sounded like another high scoring game for fantasy owners, and Peyton Manning is one of the best in the business. Manning is a stud, and the Broncos defense would not be able to contain Manning. Why he busted: Fortunately for that defense, the weather could. It was a miserable day for a quarterback, as the ball was slick and it was a very cold night. Manning certainly wasn't his normal self, but played much better once you factor in the conditions. As usual, he keyed on Marvin Harrison almost the whole game. Future outlook: With a player like Manning, a bad game like this is very excusable considering the circumstances. What's more important is how he will do for the rest of the year. Manning plays Houston and Tennessee the next two weeks, for the second time this year. The first time they saw Manning, neither team was able to stop him. Manning lit up the Texans for almost 10 yards a pass and a couple of TDs, and had a 300 yard game against the Titans. Considering the league hasn't figured him out in four years, I doubt either of those teams will in half a season. After that Manning faces a weak Cleveland secondary, and a Giants defense that can't intercept the ball. Right now I think Manning is the top quarterback to have for your playoff run, and I wouldn't hesitate to make a deal for him immediately if his owner has soured on him. Matt Hasselbeck Projected: 23rd Finished: 1st Stats: 25-36, 362 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 3 carries, 23 rush yards Reason for projection: Hasselbeck was the 33rd ranked quarterback from week 11, throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. The only reason he was in the top twenty five was the Chiefs defense has been almost as bad as the Seahawks passing game for most of the year. Why he broke out: Through eleven weeks, only two teams were giving up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Chiefs. Things didn't change much, as the Chiefs had no answer for Seattle in a game they certainly overlooked. Hasselbeck had time to throw all day, and was able to be precise and accurate all game. He only had eleven incompletions, threw for ten yards per pass, and locked in on Koren Robinson. The Chiefs defense, in a familiar trend, had no answer. Future outlook: With games against SF, Philly, Atlanta and St. Louis up next, the Seahawks offense won't be scoring 30 points many more times. I don't like Hasselbeck's chances against these defenses, but he certainly could rack up some garbage yards. He isn't consistent enough to be a fantasy starter, and I really wouldn't consider picking him up unless you were real thin at quarterback. Running Backs: Priest Holmes continues to prove he's the best runningback in the league, as he lapped the field this week. Ladainian Tomlinson looks like he's in another second half slump, or is he? Jerome Bettis may not have been the biggest boom of the week, but that Pittsburgh running back situation is certainly something to keep an eye on as your fantasy playoffs are right around the corner. Ladainian Tomlinson Projected: 4th Finished: 39th Stats: 14 carries, 45 yards; 2 catches, 14 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: While Miami has a great defense, Tomlinson is one of the top backs in the league. Historically, Miami has had problems containing good runningbacks in the past, and this figured to be a game where both teams would run the ball ad nauseam. Why he busted: Tomlinson didn't play poorly, unlike the rest of his teammates. The Chargers abandoned the run in the second half, and Miami came in with the game plan to shut down Tomlinson and beat the Chargers. The Dolphins also held him in the passing game, containing him to just two catches. Future outlook: Tomlinson has rushed for 100 yards "only" one time in the last four weeks. In the last couple of weeks, he has more fumbles (one) than touchdowns. A common misconception last year was that Tomlinson hit the wall last year and had a bad second half. In reality, Tomlinson played pretty much the same all year, and averaged the same ypc (3.6) each month of the season. The problem was, the Chargers went in the tank and so did his touchdowns. While I wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego go into another second half collapse, I think Tomlinson has improved too much to have another poor stretch run. Brees is able to keep the defenses somewhat honest, and I would still consider Tomlinson a must start every week and a top 5 running back. Jerome Bettis Projected: 26th Finished: 6th Stats: 22 carries, 79 rush yards, 2 TD; 2 catches, 27 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Bettis only had four carries in the last month, and it was still somewhat unclear what his role would be. Against Cincinnati, Jerome has always had fantastic games, so it looked like he would have a good day even if he wasn't 100% back or the main running back. Why he broke out: He WAS the main running back, as no other back received a carry. Bettis had the deciding touchdown on the game on a great twenty-four yard run. He also rushed for a short TD. Future outlook: While his yards per carry wasn't impressive, the touchdowns certainly are. The best part is that Bettis is healthy, fresh and looks to be the main back. Bettis has had problems in Jacksonville before, as the heat has aggravated his asthma in the past. In December this shouldn't affect him like it normally does. With games against Houston and Carolina coming up, I would consider Bettis a very strong RB2 to have for the rest of the year. If you can make a trade for him, I'd do it this week or next while his value is still low. Buy high on The Bus. Wide Receivers: Koren Robinson, Joey Galloway and James McKnight all had breakout games this week. However, Robinson is quickly becoming a star and you won't be able to trade for him anytime soon. He is almost a must start now, although as mentioned before the Seattle passing game has some tough matchups coming up. As for McKnight, I wouldn't rush to pick him up-I doubt he has another big game all year. Galloway however, is an interesting receiver to look at. Likewise, while Burress wasn't the biggest bust of the week, he's the most useful one to examine. Joey Galloway Projected: 30th Finished: 2nd Stats: 7 catches, 144 yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Galloway had just over 100 yards combined his last two games, with no touchdowns. Neither Chad Hutchinson, nor the Cowboys offense, inspire fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators, as they scored just thirty points in their last four games. Why he broke out: Galloway had a couple of touchdowns, including one where he broke free and sprinted to the end zone. He still has his speed, and made a great grab on his second touchdown. Future Outlook: The Cowboys seem to have the Redskins number, and I'd have no qualms with starting Galloway on Turkey day. Galloway was a trendy breakout pick before the season started, but the QB problems in Big D hurt him. If he can develop a rapport with Hutchinson, Galloway could be a sleeper to have for your fantasy playoffs. I have a history of getting overexcited with Galloway, so I will say I'm cautiously optimistic about his fantasy prospects the rest of the way. Plaxico Burress Projected: 21st Finished: 61st Stats: 4 catches, 38 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Burress wasn't projected very high, but he has been a fantasy stud for much of the season. With Kordell back, most felt that Burress would be left out in the dust and Hines would excel. Why he busted: In practice, that's exactly what happened. However, I'm not so sure of the reason. Burress had 1000 yards and six scores with Kordell last year. Ward was playing great with Maddox. Is it true that Kordell likes Ward more than Maddox? I don't think so. What I think is more likely is Kordell likes throwing into single coverage as opposed to double coverage, which happens to be a big difference. Future Outlook: The Steelers schedule isn't very difficult, so they will be able to move the ball. Burress has been getting double teamed of late, while Ward has not. Teams decided to let Ward, not Burress beat them. After what's happened, I think that's about to change. Expect either double coverage to now roll towards Ward, or defenses to play zone. Either way Burress is a good candidate to break out for the rest of the year. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |