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This year we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: There were quite a few impressive quarterback performances this week, ending with a couple of good ones on Monday night. Michael Vick ran past the competition to the top spot this week, but Drew Bledsoe and Steve McNair also had big weeks. It was a tough week for the preseason star QBs though, as Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning barely combined for 400 yards, and threw two INTs to one touchdown. And then there was a late game in San Francisco… Jeff Garcia Projected: 1st Finished: 28th Stats: 16-29, 164 pass yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 1 carry, 1 rush yard Reason for projection: The Seahawks defense is one of the worst in the league, and with an improving offense this had shootout potential. Garcia had a pretty good game in Seattle in their first meeting, and had been on a hot streak. Why he busted: Garcia ended the first two Niner drives with interceptions, but played better after that. Garrison Hearst dominated the day for the San Francisco, and there was little need for the passing game to accumulate big numbers. On top of this, Garcia was not his usual, accurate self. Future outlook: I wouldn't worry too much about this, although the trend towards the running game is somewhat disturbing. It's been going on for some time now, and it definitely limits Garcia's potential. He's a must start for anyone, but I think next year he will get drafted at least a round or two later. A lot of quarterbacks are putting up the numbers Garcia does most weeks. Jeff has some favorable matchups coming up, so I wouldn't try and make a trade for a QB if you are expecting him to lead you to your superbowl. The bottom line is if you own him, be glad, as he should help you down the stretch. Matt Hasselbeck Projected: 26th Finished: 4th Stats: 30-55, 427 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT; 2 carries, 8 rush yards Reason for projection: Hasselbeck had a pretty awful first eleven weeks, but was coming off his best week of the season. Could he keep that up on the road against a young and talented 49ers defense? The only reason he had such a great week against Kansas City was because of the awful Chiefs defense…right? Well KC just pitched a shutout, and no one in the league threw for more yards this week than Matt Hasselbeck. Why he broke out: Of course, if I know a QB is going to throw the ball 55 times, I'd want to start him too. He certainly compiled stats, but 25 incompletions and two picks isn't a great day. The reason he was able to torch the Niners defense was twofold: One, the skill position players are starting to come around. Jackson and Alexander are healthy and playing better. Throw in Robinson and Engram, and this is a potent offense which is very hard to defend when everyone is playing well. Perhaps just as important though was the Niners prevent defense. SF let Hasselbeck and the Seahawks get back in the game and pile up passing yards in the 4th quarter. Future outlook: This is now two straight weeks of great performance, but the true test will come this week against Philadelphia. Yes, Seattle has three pretty good receivers, including an emerging star in Robinson. Yes, Hasselbeck is gaining confidence each week. Yes, they played well against one of the top teams in the league. However, I'd be shocked if he was able to do anything near this against Philadelphia. The Eagles shut down almost every quarterback, and I expect their blitz packages to confuse and hurt Hasselbeck. Running Backs: Ladainian Tomlinson was coming off one of his worst weeks of the year, a 16 touch game where he totaled under 60 yards. Against Denver, in the biggest Chargers game in years, the new LT had a career day: forty eight touches and 271 yards, as he carried San Diego to first place. Ricky Williams' team is in first, but his team couldn't take advantage of his career day. Despite a 200 yard rushing game from Ricky, the Dolphins got blown out in Buffalo. A pair of 28s, Curtis Martin and Marshall Faulk, continued their down years with bad weeks. Still, neither were projected that high and most of the top guys played well. So the big underachiever this week is lucky number seven in the projections, Marcel Shipp. Marcel Shipp Projected: 7th Finished: 39th Stats: 14 carries, 26 yards; 7 catches, 37 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: Shipp was coming off a great week, and the Chiefs defense had been giving up points and yards in bunches. It looked as though Arizona had finally found the running back answer to their prayers, as he has become the main RB for the Cards. Why he busted: The Cardinals offense is now one of the worst in the league. Boston and Sanders are hurt, and injuries on the line have hurt Arizona. Plummer is playing as poorly as he ever has, and Shipp also dropped a few passes. Nothing is clicking for Arizona, and Shipp doesn't look like he's going to carry this team anytime soon. Future outlook: Arizona has never been a running powerhouse, and I don't think Marcel Shipp is talented enough to reverse that trend. In a blowout, you would think he could have racked up receiving yards, but that wasn't the case. I think the Shipp ride is just about over, and I find it hard to like any of Arizona's players for the rest of the year. The defense, the quarterback, the receivers, the running back-none are going to produce good numbers down the stretch. Shipp is probably the one Cardinal to have, and he does have value as a starter. Still, if you are trying to win a championship I wouldn't want to rely on Marcel Shipp. The only saving grace for Shipp owners is that Detroit is next on the schedule. If I was a Shipp owner, I'd hope for a big week and then sell high after the Lions game. Garrison Hearst Projected: 15th Finished: 3rd Stats: 31 carries, 124 rush yards, 3 TD; 2 catches, 28 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Hearst hadn't been the main man in some time, and it was a little unclear how much the Niners would run without Barlow. Would Mariucci decide to pass more, and open things up? Would they use another running back to supplement Hearst? There were a few variables, which is why Hearst was projected as just a strong RB2. Why he broke out: Hearst was the entire offense on Sunday, and with thirty one carries he is clearly going to be the focus until Barlow comes back. There was no evidence of San Francisco throwing the ball more, and they showed great confidence in leaning on Hearst. He's been back for over a year and a half now, and is definitely able to carry the load. Future outlook: Last year the Niners were fourth in rushing touchdowns, and second in rushing yards. Once again, San Francisco is running the ball extremely well and Garrison Hearst is the beneficiary of the great offensive line. With Kevan Barlow out, Garrison Hearst becomes a MUST start each week. Don't forget that Hearst finished in the top twelve last year, while fighting Barlow for touches. The fact that Hearst scored three times on Sunday only further emphasizes the fact that he's a stud for the rest of the year. He is definitely a guy to trade for, and he should be in the top six or seven for the rest of the year. Wide Receivers: A couple of Bills receivers finished second and third, but there were some new names atop the leaderboard this week: Marc Boerigter (12), Ron Dixon (11), Derrius Thompson (10) and even Brian Finneran (5). Leading the way was Darrell Jackson, who is apparently fully recovered from his concussion, and it's great to see him healthy. On the flip side, it was another down week for Rod Smith. Smith was superb last season, but he has been a big disappointment to all those who drafted him high in the summer. Darrell Jackson Projected: 52nd Finished: 1st Stats: 7 catches, 114 yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Jackson had only one big game this year, and it was all the way back in week two. This was also only his second game back from the brutal concussion he received in Dallas. With Koren Robinson the main man in Seattle now, how much could the number two man get against a good San Fran D? Why he broke out: Jackson looked great, and finally showed the ability he displayed his first two years. DJax was targeted 16 times, and was able to get good separation on Sunday. Jackson also made some nice moves, and scored a couple of touchdowns. Sounds like a great day, right? Jackson lost a fumble at the five yard line, and the Niners marched down the field for a touchdown. Late in the game Jackson started making mental errors, as he threw his helmet late in the game and had a 15 yard taunting penalty after a touchdown. Future Outlook: I like the enthusiasm of Jackson, and I like the targets. But as I said with Hasselbeck, I hate the schedule coming up for Seattle. Jackson is a guy you could probably pick up for cheap, and I wouldn't mind spot starting him in a big game. I wouldn't play him this week, but I'm curious to see how many times he gets targeted. If he's on your free agent wire, I would certainly pick him up. If you think you need some WR help for the stretch run, I'd acquire him. He should be able to give decent numbers for a WR3. Rod Smith Projected: 4th Finished: 58th Stats: 2 catches, 36 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Smith had a touchdown in each of the past two weeks, and he has historically played well in big games. The Chargers defense has been up and down of late, and was coming off an embarrassing loss to Miami. It has been a down year for Smith, but things were starting to point up for number 80. Why he busted: Beuerlein leaned on McCaffrey this week, as he had seven for 126. Smith's season has been frustrating-last year he played great while hurt, but this year he's been pretty healthy and underproducing. Only two touchdowns since week 3, and no 100 yard games all year? With Shannon Sharpe out it looked like Smith might get more balls his way, but now it looks more likely that Portis will be the focal point. Future Outlook: Not too good. Denver has won when they run, and this is now the Clinton Portis show. Smith caught two passes, while Portis ran for 159 yards (and only two less receiving yards). Smith should still be good for a few good games, but I think his days of being a top 5 receiver are in the past. If you think you can sell him to someone trying to feel more comfortable for the playoff ride, his name recognition will get you something. Smith is an excellent athlete, and could have a comeback season next year-but I don't think he's anything more than a middle of the road WR2 the rest of the way. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |