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This year we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: None of the big name quarterbacks had huge weeks, as even Michael Vick was shut down by the Bucs swarming defense. The projected top 5 QBs finished 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th and 17th. It was a rough week for many of the young star QBs: Brooks, Vick, Harrington, Carr and Brees all had forgettable performances on Sunday. One of the more intriguing guys to look at as you reach your fantasy playoffs is Brad Johnson. He's the overachiever of the week. Tom Brady Projected: 3rd Finished: 17th Stats: 15-27, 183 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 5 carries, -5 rush yards Reason for projection: Brady has been one of the top fantasy players all year, and even after this week is still fourth among quarterbacks. In his first game against Buffalo, Brady was nothing short of magnificient, in a blowout victory. Why he busted: Brady didn't have any interceptions, but didn't total many yards. Brady went up against one of the worst Ds in the league, but overthrew too many passes to have a big day. Normally very accurate, Brady's completion percentage was a little low. The Pats got a big lead early, and this never turned into a shootout. Future outlook: I wouldn't ever get worried about just one game, but the future is gloomy for Brady owners. Brady has been a tremendous find all year, as he certainly outperformed his draft position. However, the last two weeks he didn't finish in the top 15. The last three games are in Tennessee, and then home games against division rivals New York and Miami. All three teams have defenses playing well of late, so there are no soft games for the former Wolverine the rest of the way. Brady's probably earned his way to a must start for most teams, but if you have a quality backup I wouldn't hesitate to start him over Brady. I wouldn't expect Brady to fold, but be a weak QB1 the rest of the way. Another thing to remember is that the Pats next two games are at night, on National TV. Brad Johnson Projected: 20th Finished: 3rd Stats: 23-31, 276 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT Reason for projection: Atlanta's pass defense has played well all year, and only let Brett Favre, Aaron Brooks and Tommy Maddox throw for multiple TDs in a game this season. The last two weeks they had let up less than 400 yards passing, and forced SEVEN interceptions. Why he broke out: OSomeone forgot that there are two quarterbacks in every game, even one with Michael Vick. With all the hype focusing on the Bucs defense and Vick, Johnson fell under the radar. Johnson used his strengths to overpower the Falcons defense: his great accuracy, and the Tampa Bay's receivers' great size. 6'5 Joe Jurevicious had 100 yards, 6'1 Keenan McCardell added two scores and even 6'5 tight end Ken Dilger had three grabs. Future outlook: Brad has now thrown fifteen touchdowns in his last five games (with just one INT), and is the best player on the Tampa offense. Johnson is clearly playing as well as he ever had, and the Gruden system is proving to work with Tampa almost as well as it did in Oakland. With a game against Detroit this weekend, Johnson is a must start. Johnson should certainly be viewed as a top 10 QB for the rest of the year, and will be an intriguing player to look at for next season. Tampa Bay has a plethora of weapons on that offense, and it looks like now everyone is on the same page. Make no mistake, this offensive outburst was against one of the better defense in the league. Running Backs: Priest Holmes and Ricky Williams were in the top three projections, and they certainly didn't disappoint. It's difficult for a running back to come out of nowhere, and the closest thing to be a big overachiever this week was William Green. On the other hand, while many people soured on Bledsoe after a crippling loss for the Bills, fantasy owners couldn't have been too happy with Travis Henry. And for those few not paying attention, Michael Bennett had another 100 yard rushing game and is turning into a very capable runningback. Travis Henry Projected: 4th Finished: 35th Stats: 15 carries, 60 yards; 0 catches, 0 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: Henry averaged 156 total yards the previous three weeks, and also reached paydirt each of the past two weeks. Henry is having a very good year, and appeared to be heating up as the temperature dropped. In the first meeting against NE, Henry ran well with limited carries. This surely would be a much closer game, right? Why he busted: Wrong. Once again, the Pats shut down Bledsoe. The number of touches Henry got is concerning-especially zero catches. Henry fumbled (again) on Sunday, but this time it was on the goalline. Buffalo recovered, but it's clear Greg Williams can't trust Henry at any point. He was taken out for Centers when the Bills want to a predominantly passing offense. Future outlook: This has to be frustrating for Henry owners. Things seemed to be coming together, but now he has more fumbles than catches in one of the biggest games of his career. Eventually, the fumbling troubles are going to come back to haunt Henry. The fact that the Bills are pretty much out of contention may play in his favor-Buffalo may look more to giving him a chance to overcome his problems than worry about winning the game. If the problems continue into next year, Henry will definitely start to lose touches. If you're in a keeper league, just hope this is an aberration. He runs hard and should be a solid runningback for years to come. For those with him in their fantasy playoffs, Buffalo's schedule is pretty tough, but Henry is a must start every week. William Green Projected: 24th Finished: 3rd Stats: 26 carries, 119 rush yards, 1 TD; 3 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: While Green has been hot of late, Jacksonville is tough against the run. There are still many doubters out there about Green, who was just awful for most of the season. Why he broke out: Green has officially broken out. With over 105 yards rushing per game the last month, Willie Green has finally developed into a quality NFL running back. He played with power, and made an impressive run for his touchdown. Most important of all, the Browns have complete faith in him. Future outlook: Green has become the focal point of the Browns offense, and with an important game against Indy I see no reason for that to change. While the Colts have the firepower to jump out to an early lead and make Cleveland one dimensional, I think Coach Davis will try and ride his rookie until he fails. It's hard to complain with his production, and he's a guy I'd want to have on my team for the fantasy playoffs. He should be a solid starting RB for any fantasy squad, and perhaps for years to come. I'm very optimistic on Green, and his confidence has reached an all time high. Wide Receivers: Joe Jurevicious and Quincy Morgan each caught two touchdowns this week, but have been very inconsistent this season. Instead, for the overachiever of the week, we'll look at a guy who may be a free agent in your league, and most likely riding your bench. Donald Driver has been one of the best pickups of the year, but he finally had a poor fantasy week. Keyshawn Johnson also had a down week, but believe it or not he's not the fantasy stud Donald Driver is. Now who thought we'd be saying THAT before the season began? Steve Smith Projected: 42nd Finished: 5th Stats: 5 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD Reason for projection: Smith barely cracks the top forty, after his impressive game against Cincinnati. Coming off a one catch week for just three yards, he didn't look like an attractive starter in most leagues. Why he broke out: Smith was the beneficiary of an awful Bengals secondary, and made the most of it with his career day. His two punt returns for scores made it a memorable afternoon for the second year player. Rodney Peete looked great on Sunday, and clearly feels comfortable throwing to Smith. Future Outlook: In today's NFL, many of the punt returners are also explosive wide receivers. Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, Dennis Northcutt and Steve Smith all can contribute on offense and special teams. His added value as a return man makes Smith a better fantasy play than other wideouts with similar stats, and he is developing a good rapport with Rodney Peete. The Panthers last three games come against Pittsburgh, Chicago and New Orleans: none of the three have played well against the pass this year. Smith is a risky starter this week, but many signs point to a strong finish for Smith. After having a difficult year both on and off the field, Smith publicly stated he wants to finish strong and show the world the "new" Steve. The Panthers may be an awful NFL team, but there's no reason why Smith can't be a solid fantasy starter the rest of the way. Donald Driver Projected: 3rd Finished: 55th Stats: 2 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD, 1 carry, 17 rushing yards Reason for projection: Entering week 14, no team had surrendered as many fantasy points to wide receivers as the Minnesota Vikings. In their first meeting, Driver went over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Those two facts, along with the top ten year Driver is having, were enough to put him at third in the weekly projections. Why he busted: Robert Ferguson has 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Vikings didn't seem prepared for Ferguson, who got a chance at extra playing time Sunday night. In addition to Terry Glenn being announced out right before gametime, rookie Javon Walker dropped a ball that turned into an interception. Driver also injured his elbow in the first half, so Ferguson was clearly the main target for Favre on this day. Future Outlook: Driver has been the main man in Titletown most of the year, so I wouldn't get worried about what happened against Minnesota. Favre has relied on him all year, and without his improved play the Packers would not be where they are today. Green Bay rewarded him with a big contract, and the last few games will help decide who has homefield for the playoffs. Expect Favre to lean on Driver as much as ever down the stretch, and he should get his touchdown groove back this weekend against San Francisco. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |