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This year we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: Daunte Culpepper was the only QB this week to truly dominate a fantasy matchup. His seventy three rushing yards, four touchdowns, and a 300-yard passing game are a combination you don't see very often. That doesn't mean he was the only standout performer though: Jake Plummer and Trent Green have had disappointing seasons, but were able to finish in the top five on Sunday. Meanwhile, Gannon, Garcia and Brady all had low scoring weeks, which will probably lead to a thread on the Shark Pool saying "What good is it to have a fantasy stud all year if he lays an egg in my playoffs?" Drew Bledsoe Projected: 4th Finished: 32nd Stats: 11-33, 107 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 1 carry, 0 rush yards Reason for projection: San Diego hasn't been particularly effective against some of the top passing offenses in the league, and going into Buffalo didn't look like a favorable matchup for them. Bledsoe and the Bills were playing with almost nothing to lose, which usually means the team will be even more aggressive than normal. Bledsoe was also coming off a pair of 300-yard passing games. Why he busted: The Chargers defense played extremely well on Sunday, at least against the pass. In fact, their weakness against the run probably made the Bills feel more comfortable letting Travis Henry pile another another 140-yard game. Bledsoe also wasn't able to connect on any of his deep passes against San Diego, usually a staple of the Bills offense. Future outlook: The former Patriot has exceeded all expectations in his first year with the Bills, and an off game like this won't earn him many detractors. The fact that Buffalo could win without a big game from him also bodes well for the future of the Bills. Going into Lambeau this weekend will be a very interesting matchup, with two of the strongest quarterbacks in the league. I think it could turn into a shootout, and I'd have no problems starting Drew this weekend. How will Drew do next year? Assuming the Bills are able to bring back most of his supporting cast, I expect another big year out of Bledsoe. Losing Peerless Price would be a big blow, but the team should feel more comfortable in their second year in a fairly complex offense. Suffice it to say you won't be able to get his 4000 yards next year in round eight again. Patrick Ramsey Projected: 27th Finished: 6th Stats: 23-35, 213 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 2 carries, 3 yards Reason for projection: One word: Philadelphia. The Eagles pass defense has been the best in the league for several years now, and only Peyton Manning had a great game against them. In one of the Eagles worst statistical games of the year, it took Jeff Garcia 50 passes to get 280 yards. Against Patrick Ramsey, the Eagles defense should have been able to have another great performance. Why he broke out: Ramsey played the best game of his young career against Philly. In addition to being very accurate, he was able to lead the team to three touchdowns. Ramsey spread the ball around for the scores, throwing to three different wide receivers. Gardner had an impressive TD, but Ramsey's favorite target was Derrius Thompson. The Eagles were only able to sack Ramsey twice, and when their blitz didn't get to him, he picked them apart. Future outlook: Ramsey has two meaningless games left, and it's unpredictable how a young QB will do in just about every situation. Houston's pass defense plays pretty well, but perhaps the Redskins offense is hitting their stride. Of more significance is next season for Redskins fans, and most fantasy players. While it was fun to proclaim the Fun N' Gun a failure, one year is not a true litmus test. If Washington can bring in a talented wide receiver, along with keeping most of the offense in tact, the Redskins could be one of the more electrifying teams next year. Patrick Ramsey showed a lot on Sunday, playing against as tough a defense as the NFL has to offer. The potential is there, and if the old ball coach is half as good as he thinks, then Ramsey has a bright future ahead of him. Running Backs: Clinton Portis just about cemented his status as a first round pick next year, with a jaw-dropping four touchdowns on Sunday. Curtis Martin and Eddie George both got 100 yards this weekend. Two years ago that would be no surprise, but it's nice to see the old guys still have something left. Marcel Shipp made the most of his primetime game, and showed a great deal to a national audience against the Rams. He was the overachiever of the week. Corey Dillon Projected: 8th Finished: 39th Stats: 21 carries, 59 yards; 0 catches, 0 yards; 0 TDs Reason for projection: It's been a down year for Dillon, but he's always got the potential for a big game. Dillon's usually a better play at home, and scored a touchdown in each of his games against Jacksonville last year. Dillon had been solid but unspectacular of late, but looked to rebound against his former division rival. Why he busted: Until the Bengals get a real passing attack, Dillon won't be able to put up big games with any degree of consistency. The Jags stacked men against the run, and while he ran hard, didn't come through with many results. If he had scored a touchdown on any of his three straight goalline runs he would have had a good day, but once again he was tackled short. Future outlook: Corey Dillon could usually be counted on for a pretty good year, mixed in with some great games. Dillon really had just one great game this year (against Indy), and is ranked 16th on the season. Dillon is getting on in years, and I think next year we'll start to see him drop to the beginning of the third round in most drafts. Cincinnati has been the worst team in the league for the last decade, and this is one of their worst years. Will the motivation be there for Dillon to have a strong offseason? Will he even come back? To be honest, I'm not a big fan of Dillon's future fantasy prospects as a Bengal. His immediate future is against New Orleans, a team that is starting to show its youth as the games rise in importance. Dillon may reward his fantasy owners with a big game in their Super Bowl, and I'd certainly rather play him than play against him. The Saints have let up their share of big games this year, and that is Dillon's specialty. Marcel Shipp Projected: 21st Finished: 2nd Stats: 27 carries, 96 rush yards, 2 TDs; 2 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD Reason for projection: Two weeks ago Shipp was just awful, and last week he performed well against Detroit. The Rams defense has played surprisingly well this year, considering the forgettable year they have had. Why he broke out: Shipp had a great 80 yard touchdown on a screen pass, and the Cardinals relied on him with a depleted wide receiver corps. His 27 carries weren't all impressive, but he was able to get almost 100 yards. Arizona clearly relied on him, and while he doesn't have the name recognition of Thomas Jones, he probably should have been the starting running back all year long. Three touchdowns and you'll be a breakout performer every week. Future outlook: Shipp's screen pass notwithstanding, it wasn't a very impressive game for Shipp. However, when you factor in the big play and the three touchdowns, and you just might see the future of the Arizona running game. He is still young, and if Arizona can decide to make him their featured back next year, I think things would work out well. Against San Francisco next week, it's anybody's guess as to how he does. I don't think he's good enough right now to put up consistent numbers, but San Francisco is playing for nothing. With the #4 seed in the NFC all but locked up, it will be interested to see how motivated the 49ers are. If they are flat at all, Shipp will be able to take advantage and probably have a 100-yard game. Wide Receivers: While Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Plaxico Burress had their expected big weeks, two stars in Joe Horn and Peerless Price couldn't get untracked in week fifteen. Terrell Owens had his usual big week, and he and Marvin Harrison will likely be the first two wideouts taken in your fantasy draft next season. Peerless Price will be a very interesting player to follow, especially since he may be on a new team. The big surprise of the week was Dante Hall, who had one of the plays of the year as he continues his amazing December. Dante Hall Projected: 107th Finished: 2nd Stats: 5 catches, 143 yards, 2 TDs Reason for projection: Donte Hall had three receptions in the past four weeks. The only reason you had probably heard of him, was his three returns for touchdowns during the Chiefs' routs of the past two weeks. Why he broke out: : Injuries to the Kansas City WRs (again), let Hall get a chance to showcase his talents. Green had no problem looking to him, and his 49-yard touchdown score might have been the top play of any Chief all year. There's little doubt about his big play ability, with his long scores in both the return game and on offense. Denver didn't really know how to stop him when he got the ball, as he amassed 28.6 yards per reception. Future Outlook: One week wonder? If Hall is really this good, wouldn't he be starting on a team that lacks talent at wide receiver? Right now, no one really knows the answer to those questions. Hall certainly adds speed and excitement to the game, and I think Kansas City will look his way for the rest of the year. If Holmes and Gonzalez are playing, it's hard for a team to shut down a wide receiver. However, if Holmes is hurt this week my hopes for Hall drop quite a bit. With a huge game against San Diego, KC will have to pull out all the tricks they have to get a win. Hall is someone intriguing to have in dynasty leagues, and just may end up having some value before it's all over. Hard to recommend starting a guy like Hall in your fantasy Super Bowl, but if you have no other options, I would consider taking a chance on him maintaining his great play of late. Peerless Price Projected: 8th Finished: 59th Stats: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TD Reason for projection: Price had been one of the top fantasy wideouts in the league this year, and the Buffalo passing game seemed to be getting back on track. With back-to-back 300 yard games from Bledsoe, it seemed as if Buffalo would end the season on a high (scoring) note. Why he busted: A very, very disappointing game for Price. This is the type of game that makes fantasy players avoid drafting star wideouts early, because their inconsistency leads to games like this. Price did draw a couple of pass interference calls, and Bledsoe looked his way deep several times. He clearly is still a big part of the passing game, but just wasn't able to produce the stats against San Diego. Future Outlook: Price could easily turn things around against Green Bay on Sunday, and he is a must start because of the great year he has had. That being said, his future is very interesting. If he stays in Buffalo, Price most likely gets a very nice contract, and should be a top 10 wide receiver next year. However, his ego and his wallet may want him to sign the big contract to be the number one man on another team. Usually wide receivers start off slow when they change teams, but did Price start off slow when the Bills changed their offense and brought in Drew Bledsoe? If the Bills make the playoffs I think Price stays, but it's very possible he signs elsewhere and is one of the biggest mysteries heading into our fantasy drafts next year. This is my last article of the season, and I'd like to thank everyone who has read the column this year. It's been a lot of fun following things with you guys, and I'll always be around on the messageboards for some football talk. I appreciate all the feedback I have received, and if you'd like to contact me during the offseason you can e-mail me at [email protected]. Enjoy the rest of your season and the playoffs, and have a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |