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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and
the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: Quincy Carter was the top breakout QB of the week, surprising just about everyone with a top ten finish. Once again, Kurt Warner fell below expectations this week. Despite being ranked first, Warner was outscored by eighteen different quarterbacks. However, since I looked at him in last week's article (and said it wouldn't be a surprise to see him struggle against the Giants), I won't repeat it since not much has changed. Right now the Rams aren't in sync, but that can change in an instant. Instead, we'll look at Peyton Manning, the second strongest underachiever of week two. Peyton Manning Projected: 5th Finished: 19th Stats: 26-45, 289 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT; 1 carry, 5 rush yards. Reason for projection: Manning was very good in week one, and it seemed like Qadry Ismail was the perfect number two receiver that the Colts have needed for years. Manning was facing a tough Miami team, but he was home and knows them very well. Edgerrin James looked fine in week one, so Manning wouldn't be in a position where he had to force his throws. Why he busted: Manning did throw for almost 300 yards, but a 1 to 3 TD/INT ratio is eating at Tony Dungy. To be fair to Peyton, none of the three interceptions were costly mistakes on his part. One was a hail mary at the end of the first half; his first interception came off a bobble by Jermaine Wiggins, and his other interception was in and out of Marvin Harrison's hands. Had he thrown a TD on the last play of the game instead of an incompletion, he would have had a nice game in leagues that don't penalize for INTs. Future outlook: This game is evidence for the fantasy player that likes to utilize matchups. For his career, Manning had a 12 to 14 TD/INT ratio vs. Miami. Last year, Peyton was picked off five times against the Fins, and threw for only 426 yards in two games. For trivia fans, he also ran one time for five yards in both games against them last year. Manning is a great NFL QB, and he showed it on the final drive. With the team needing a touchdown, General Manning was as poised as ever in leading his team down the field. There's no one that doesn't have confidence in Peyton Manning's ability, and his 25 yard completion to Troy Walters in the final seconds showed that this Indy offense is still very potent. Games against Houston, Cincinnati, Baltimore are just what the doctor ordered and I'd expect Manning to be in the top 5 for QB FP/G (he has a bye week 4) over that span. Quincy Carter Projected: 20th Finished: 10th Stats: 14-24, 240 pass yards, 2 TDs; 4 carries, 7 rush yards Reason for projection: Everyone watched Sunday Night Football last weekend, where both Carter and the Cowboys were national embarrassments. Thirty-two QBs started last weekend, and Carter didn't outscore a single one of them. Considering he was playing a pretty good Tennessee team, I'd say ranking him 20th was on the high side. Why he broke out: Quincy Carter is a very skilled athlete. Right now he's not a great Quarterback, so he will be inconsistent. He can play very well and even beat the elite teams, as he did last year vs. San Francisco (see more about that below). What impressed me this week was he didn't do it with his legs: 10 yards per pass and two TDs would make any gunslinger proud. Future outlook: Prior to the season, I thought Quincy Carter had a great chance of being yet another young QB to breakout. Here's some of what I wrote: Most QBs improve the most between their first and second seasons, and Carter is the unquestioned starter. His numbers last year were similar to McNabb's rookie season, and he's more NFL ready than Michael Vick. How'd the rookie respond to winning NFC player of the week honors when he cost the 49ers a home-field playoff game? "It's flattering, considering all the great players who play every Sunday," Carter said. "I first of all want to give thanks to my teammates, because I can't throw it and go catch it, too. Running back Emmitt Smith has been opening up some holes with the running game so that I can have some passing lanes. The hat goes off to me, but the hat also goes off to my teammates, because they helped me get this award." He's a player with his head on his shoulders, and more than enough ability to win. I see no reason why Carter shouldn't get better with experience, and he could very well be a startable QB in the second half of the season. If he can get through the next three games against the Eagles, Rams and Giants, he should be fine. I wouldn't expect much from him any of those weeks, as he isn't good enough yet to beat a top notch defense. The middle of his schedule is smooth sailing, so I would wait a couple of weeks and then try to acquire him if you are playing a quarterback by committee. Runningbacks: Curtis Martin and Shaun Alexander were both pretty big busts this week. Alexander was projected second, but didn't reach the end zone or rush for forty yards. On the other hand, Martin was projected 19th but finished 58th. It's pretty obvious why Martin was a bust-he was hurt, he carried the ball only four times, and the Jets got blown out. So while the focus will be on Alexander, there will be a future outlook for Curtis Martin. On the positive side, Moe Williams came out of nowhere (not ranked by FBG) to rush for 100 yards and a score. Shaun Alexander Projected: 2nd Finished: 25th Stats: 17 carries, 37 yards; 6 receptions, 47 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Alexander was a star last year, and faced an Arizona defense that looked weak as always in their season opener. Seattle was opening up their brand new stadium, and Trent Dilfer was back at QB. Why he busted: Seattle's offensive line was (more on that in a minute) a lot worse than we thought. Alexander is one of the premier RBs in the league, and should do more than barely average two yards per carry at home against Arizona. On top of that, the defense looked awful and he got poked in the eye causing him to miss a couple of series. Future outlook: Thirty carries for seventy four yards after two weeks probably isn't what you were expecting with your high first round pick. Alexander has a lot to prove right now, but he does have a few things in his favor. Chief among those being the return of Pro Bowl OT Walter Jones, who finally reached an agreement with Seattle and is expected to play Sunday against the Giants. Second, Alexander was still a big factor for Seattle. Seventeen carries (and the Seahawks ran seven times while he was out) and seven passes thrown in his direction are very good signs. He's the Seattle offense, which means he should have a good fantasy year. Good isn't what was expected though, so what are his chances of a great season? In 1997, Barry Sanders rushed for 2053 yards. After week two, he had only gained 53 of them. While he did have a 100 yard receiving game in week two, that's still some good history for Alexander owners. However, there's only one Barry Sanders and two weeks of poor play is a very real reason to worry. Alexander should NOT be considered a top three RB in your league, and he may not even be top ten. If you're an Alexander owner there isn't much to do except wait it out. If you're looking to get Alexander cheap, you may want to wait one more week. A tough Giants team on the road isn't a good recipe for Alexander, and you may find his owner desperately trying to get some value from their first round pick. Future outlook for Curtis Martin: Curtis Martin is averaging 5.5 yards per...game. A notorious fast starter, Martin has never had less than 100 rushing yards after two games. So what is a Curtis Martin owner to do? Martin was injured week one, and played sparingly in week two. The difference between Martin and Alexander is Curtis has barely had a chance to play. Martin has only eight carries, so it's not wise to write him off just yet. Emmitt Smith held out the first two games in 1993, but still led the NFL in rushing. Just like those Cowboys teams, the Jets offense revolves around Curtis Martin. With Herman Edwards' team seeking an identity, there's little doubt that a healthy Martin will get the ball 25 times a game. Martin has a big game this week against Miami, as does the entire Jets offense. If he doesn't have a 100 yard game in either of the next two weeks, I'd say it's time to really temper your expectations. As of right now, Martin looks like he'll be healthy for this weekend and should be 100% against Jacksonville, so this may be a good time to get him dirt cheap from an owner. No. 28 is too good a player and the Jets use him too much to expect a healthy Curtis to not be among the top fantasy backs. Moe Williams Projected: Unranked Finished: 11th Stats: 17 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD Reason for projection: Moe Williams had just seven carries the week before, one of four Vikings to get at least five carries in week one. Williams came into week two a backup...how did he leave it? Why he broke out: Williams was the main RB in the second half, after a holding penalty that negated a Randy Moss touchdown landed Michael Bennett on the bench. Williams ran well for the Vikes in the highest scoring game of the weekend. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry, with a long of twenty-three. He scored what looked like the game winning TD in the final minute of regulation. Future outlook: Michael Bennett isn't looking over his shoulder anymore: he's looking straight ahead and has played himself into a running back by committee situation. Doug Drinen wrote here how Bennett may lack the instincts to ever be a very good RB, and we shouldn't be too surprised to see him fail early on. I would say at best for Bennett owners is a RBBC. For those that rushed to pick up Moe Williams, here is some information on him.
Wide Receivers: At Wide Receiver, both Peerless Price and Josh Reed were fantasy gold this week. We'll look to see which one is the real deal and which is fool's gold. The big surpise of week two was the play of the Buffalo WRs-and the big bust? Rod Smith was the entire Broncos team early last year, but has only eight catches so far. Peerless Price Projected: 22nd Finished: 1st Stats: 13 catches, 185 yards, 2 touchdowns Josh Reed Projected: Unranked Finished: 7th Stats: 8 catches, 110 yards, 1 touchdown Reason for projection: Considering Price is the number 2 WR, a ranking in the low 20s usually represents a favorable matchup. Considering how awful the Minnesota defense is, favorable was clearly an understatement. Moulds seemed to be Bledsoe's primary target week one, especially during crunch time. As for Josh Reed, the rookie had only three catches in week one for thirty-three yards. Why they broke out: The Vikings pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Jim Miller threw for 297 yards week one, then couldn't even pass for half of that against an Atlanta team missing its best cornerback. That Atlanta team also let up nearly 300 passing yards and two TDs the week before. Clearly, the Vikes D is capable of making any passing attack look good. The Vikings offense kept it close, so this one became a shootout. It went to overtime, giving the Bills passing game even more chances to pad their stats. For what it's worth, had Mike Hollis' game tying FG bounced backwards instead of forwards, Price would have ended the game with a more pedestrian 9/114/1. Future Outlook: Price was a sleeper going into the season, but everyone knows about him now. Price set career highs across the board last year, and in his fourth year is playing for a new contract. With Bledsoe at the helm, there's no reason why Price can't have his best year yet. He is still the number two wide receiver, and he's never going to take Eric Moulds' job. I'd expect Price to be inconsistent, as always. Last year he had three one catch games, and three 100 yard-one TD games. Expect more of the same, but with improvements in yards, catches and touchdowns on his year end numbers. Josh Reed is the rookie WR for the Buffalo Bills. With games against Denver, Oakland and Chicago in the next three weeks, I doubt you will be able to count on Reed consistently. He is talented enough to take advantage of a Minnesota secondary that left him wide open, but he should be on your bench against all but the weakest teams. Rod Smith Projected: 7th Finished: 74th Stats: 3 catches, 22 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: Smith scored a TD in week one, and was a top five WR last season. With McCaffrey and Shannon Sharpe back in Denver, Smith won't be the sole focus of opposing defenses. Why he busted: The Broncos passing attacked netted...98 yards. Smith was second on the team in receptions, but the Broncos played a very conservative brand of football against the 49ers. Smith had important catches, but clearly the Broncos passing attack was non-existent as far as fantasy purposes. Future Outlook: With less than 70 yards so far, I'm sure the Rod Smith owners are worried. Smith is healthy and the Broncos team looks very good. To me, those are much better indicators of his future than what he has done the past two weeks. Mike Shanahan wasn't about to get into a shootout with the top two scoring teams in the NFC from last season, so little production in games against St. Louis and San Francisco should be taken with a grain of salt. There's no reason why Rod Smith can't have a 100 yard game any week, as he did thirteen times in 2000 and 2001. Over that same span, Smith caught 20 TDs. This week against Buffalo could be another shootout, or we might see the Broncos play it close to the vest again. Regardless, at the end of the year Rod Smith will have very good numbers. The Broncos seemed to try to get the ball into his hands quite a bit, as he ran the ball three times and was targeted often in the passing game. The confidence Griese gained last week can only help, and I wouldn't move Smith out of my top 5 for WRs just yet. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |