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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and
the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: This week brings the arrival of Daunte Culpepper, the final member of the preseason "Big Four" at QB. Week 1, Kurt Warner and Jeff Garcia were big disappointments. In week two, Peyton Manning got swamped by the Dolphins. And this past weekend, the Minnesota Vikings couldn't muster much against the surprise of the league, the 3-0 Carolina Panthers. On the bright side, we see our second huge week of the year for a Cleveland QB. Week one, Kelly Holcomb was the top dog, and this past week Tim Couch finished in the top five. Daunte Culpepper Projected: 1st Finished: 19th Stats: 19-30, 191 pass yards, 1 TD, 4 INT; 4 carries, 32 rush yards. Reason for projection: Culpepper was coming off a big week, and the other top QBs had been struggling. With Warner and Garcia still trying to get in sync with their star receivers, and Peyton Manning coming off an awful week, Culpepper was the only one of the big four that was actually playing well. Daunte finished second among QBs last week, and in what was a very important game we figured Culpepper would have another fine performance. Why he busted: For what it's worth, Culpepper had a similar game against Carolina last year in September. Against a weaker team, he threw for only 236 yards with three interceptions. Right now the Panthers defense is looking great. Opposing QBs ranked 28th and 26th against John Fox's rebuilt team the first two weeks. Culpepper had two fumbles, and was responsible for a botched handoff as well. He never got into any sort of rhythm against this team. With all the hoopla on defensive coaching geniuses, many forget that just two seasons ago John Fox was touted as one of the top three or four defensive minds in the game. Future outlook: Last year Minnesota was awful, but Culpepper was able to compile good fantasy numbers. While it's debatable how effective an NFL QB he is, there's no doubt that a healthy Culpepper is one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. While Daunte was obviously furious with Moss on Sunday, by the weekend the Randy Ratio will be in full effect, and Culpepper knows where his bread is buttered. With a primetime game against Seattle, and then a game against Detroit, there's no QB I'd rather have for the next two weeks. Culpepper owners should relax, and realize all QBs have their bad games-and be glad they didn't draft Warner or Garcia. Tim Couch Projected: 16th Finished: 4th Stats: 36-50, 326 pass yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 3 carries, 23 rush yards Reason for projection: Couch wasn't even an automatic start after the stellar play of Kelly Holcomb. There was also a question of whether or not he would be pulled if he started slowly. With this being Couch's first game back, the Cleveland line missing two starters and on the road against a former divisional rival, it didn't look like the formula for a big game. Why he broke out: Cleveland had some talent at the skill positions coming into this season, and it appears they all have decided to break out at the same time. Andre Davis had two touchdowns; Quincy Morgan has developed into a threat; Kevin Johnson is benefiting from the talent around him; halfback Jamel White had nine catches. Dennis Northcutt even had a couple of touchdowns. The Cleveland passing attack has put up a lot of fantasy points. Future outlook: It's hard to be down on the Cleveland offense right now, and I would certainly ride the wave until it stops. Couch should be your starter, and has a chance of making this a breakout season. The Browns will likely pass a lot again this week, as they play the Steelers. With no semblance of a running game, there's nothing Butch Davis can do but pass. Passing has led the Browns to a 2-1 record, but they scored 40 points in that loss. Coaches will do whatever works to win-and right now, airing it out is working for the Browns. The schedule isn't too difficult, so if Couch can stay healthy there's little reason why he can't be a top ten QB this year. If you want to get a QB cheap, I'd go after Tim Couch. Runningbacks: Clinton Portis shocked everyone by having the first 100 yard rushing performance of his career. At RB, Corey Dillon, Shaun Alexander and Curtis Martin disappointed owners yet again. Week 1 we discussed Dillon, and the same caveats about his Thrillin' Dillon apply. Alexander was the RB under the microscope last week, and my feelings on him haven't changed-it's time to be nervous. This week we'll take a closer look at Martin. Curtis Martin Projected: 13th Finished: 38th Stats: 16 carries, 43 yards; 2 receptions, 20 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Martin has had some success against Miami in the past, and Curtis was fully recovered from his ankle injury. The Jets had also vowed to establish the run this week, which would make Martin a valuable fantasy commodity. Why he busted: Another week, another Jets blowout. Martin was the center of the offense early on, but the Jets weren't fooling anyone. Unimaginative playcalling by Paul Hackett and a poor game from the offensive line spelled doom for the Jets offense. Future outlook: If you drafted Martin, you're probably not doing too well in your fantasy leagues. In addition to not giving you any production, Martin is a guy that's hard to bench because of his great history. Martin is the type of player that's hard to give up on, but the count has definitely reached nine. This weekend in Jacksonville is a gut check game for the entire Jets team. If Martin doesn't get 100 yards on the ground this week, I'd begin to actively shop him. It's very difficult to get a gauge on the Jets right now, who in addition to playing two top level teams, have a history of starting off poorly. Last year the Jets started 1-2, and they began 0-2 the year they went to the AFC Championship game. Right now the offense is not functioning at all, and it makes starting Martin a very risky move. If he doesn't play well this weekend, I would bench him until he proves something. Clinton Portis Projected: 40th Finished: 6th Stats: 18 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch, 4 yards Reason for projection: Clinton Portis was the third head in the three headed monster that is the Denver Broncos running game. Olandy Gary and Mike Anderson were expected to get a significant amount of carries. Why he broke out: When Gary was injured early on, the Broncos running game went in the hands of Clinton Portis. Fortunately for him, he didn't fumble it. The former Hurricane star looked fantastic running for 5.7 yards per carry, and playing like a veteran. Future outlook: There's a bunch of reasons to get excited about Clinton Portis, so let's begin with the negatives. In a very similar situation, Moe Williams ran 17 times for 102 yards and a score last week, but didn't look like the same back this past Sunday. Olandis Gary isn't going to get zero carries again, so he will certainly eat into his production. Right now the Broncos have three good RBs, and I suspect they'll all play. That doesn't mean Portis can't have a good fantasy season, but it certainly makes it a lot harder. If Portis was the main back on the team, he'd be a top ten fantasy runner. As of right now, it's very difficult to determine if this was his breakout game, or "his" game, and next weekend will be Gary's game. Denver has now had each of their three RBs lead the team in rushing for one game. On the bright side, many believe Portis is the most talented RB on the roster. In addition, until last year Den RBs have always put up pretty good fantasy numbers, and it's possible that this was the game Portis needed to pull away from the other backs. I would start him this weekend just on his potential, but his future outlook is far from clear. Wide Receivers: At Wide Receiver, we had a guy that was unranked outscore everyone not named Troy Brown. On the flip side, the top WR in the league was completely shut down this weekend. Andre' Davis Projected: Unranked Finished: 2nd Stats: 5 catches, 99 yards, 2 touchdowns Reason for projection: Davis was the Browns number three wide receiver, and had only seven catches the first two weeks. With Tim Couch back, it was expected that he'd focus on his favorite target Kevin Johnson, and Quincy Morgan, who had a breakout performance week one. Why they broke out: Davis caught two touchdowns, but he also caught two TDs the first two weekends. The 6'1 rookie has become a red zone target in the Browns offense, and right now the Browns passing attack is in a groove. The Browns also threw fifty times, which always helps inflate WRs statistics. Future Outlook: Things are certainly getting muddy for fantasy owners. Who will be the main WR each week? They're the aerial version of the Broncos: Morgan, Johnson and now Davis have each led the team in receiving once this season. Morgan and Johnson are the starters, but Davis' four TDs make him a very attractive fantasy option. I would still want the two starters before Andre' Davis, as I don't think the rookie will overtake them in the starting lineup. Davis is certainly a guy to keep an eye on, and he won't be a free agent for long in any league. Randy Moss Projected: 1st Finished: 74th Stats: 4 catches, 16 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: Randy Moss is the top WR in fantasy football, pretty good for someone who only "plays when he wants to play." Moss is the type of WR that can explode against any opponent, so he will be the top ranked receiver almost every week. Why he busted: The Panthers D completely shut him down. John Fox shut down the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Championship game, and he shut them down this year in week three. Whether it's great scheming or better luck, Moss and Culpepper are having problems against him. Moss is also an inconsistent wide receiver, so it's not very surprising to see a poor game here and there. If misery loves company, Moss owners can take solace in the fact that Moss' awful week helped eliminate me from the Survivor contest. Future Outlook: This was one of Randy Moss' worst fantasy games ever. Does that mean you bench him next week? While I hope most of you know that's not the case, let's look at his worst week ever. Week ten of his rookie season, Moss caught one ball for only six yards. The previous two weeks he was averaging two catches and thirty three yards. Was the rookie getting figured out? Time to bench him? Moss caught a TD in the remaining seven games of the season: Over the next month Randy Moss AVERAGED 130 yards and two TDs, for an eye-popping 25.3 fantasy points per game. Randy caught two TDs and had 144 yards in his last meeting with Detroit. With Seattle on the schedule this week (in a primetime game) and Detroit next week, I see no reason for Moss owners to not feel proud to own the top WR in fantasy football. Don't outcoach yourself-Moss shouldn't be traded straight up for any WR, and he should be in your lineup every single week. The issues with Culpepper aren't something to simply dismiss, but until you see it affecting his fantasy points for a few weeks it wouldn't bother me very much. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |