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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: Three of the top five point scorers this week had an average projected rank of 23rd! While Doug Johnson had a tremendous week, his long-term value is relatively low. David Carr has all the skills, but his great showing was much more likely due to Buffalo's lack of defense than to his maturation. He is still too inconsistent to be considered a starter in most leagues. There is a player who emerged from relative obscurity and with quite a large deal of potential. If this was a year ago that player might have been Tom Brady-instead today, he's recovering from being booed by Pats fans and being the underachiever of the week. Tom Brady Projected: 2nd Finished: 22nd Stats: 24-44, 183 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT; 5 carries, 26 rush yards Reason for projection: Brady had been one excellent through three weeks, and still one of the top scorers in most leagues going into week six. The Packers defense has disappointed all year, and they were playing with a lot of second stringers. A banged up defense that isn't too great to begin with, on the road against the Pats? It seemed like a great formula for success for New England. Why he busted: The common wisdom going around this week is that a) it's a lot harder to stop the pass when you know it's coming, and the Pats running game isn't keeping anyone honest; b) Brady isn't good enough yet to beat you every week by throwing the ball forty to fifty times a week. While I'm not sure either of that is true, it's clear that on Sunday Brady was ineffective and the Packers defense played against the pass. Sometimes you just have bad games. Future outlook: Three straight losses? If this doesn't wake up Charlie Weis, nothing will change the Patriots playcalling. With the bye this week, the Patriots play only one more game before Halloween. When the weather gets cold, I'd expect a lot more Antowain Smith. Last year, focusing the offense on him led the Patriots to the playoffs and I think New England will go back to doing what works. How does this affect Brady? He won't be a fantasy dud the second half, but I'd expect him to play more like a weak QB1 than he did the first few weeks-or pretty much the way Drew Bledsoe plays every week. They say in the NFL that it takes three weeks to figure out a new offense; through three weeks their new pass first offense was flying high, but it's certainly nose dived of late. If you can move Brady for the value of a top five QB, do it in a heartbeat. Marc Bulger Projected: 19th Finished: 2nd Stats: 14-21, 186 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 4 carries, -1 rush yards, 1 TD. Reason for projection: Bulger wasn't just making his first ever start-he'd never thrown an NFL pass. The twenty five year old from West Virginia was playing for a winless team, against the best team in the NFL. The Rams offensive line is scary, as in scary to stand behind if you are the QB. Why he broke out: Could it be because he's from Pittsburgh, PA? You can bet Marino, Unitas, Kelly, Namath and all the other QBs from Western Pennsylvania didn't have a 97-yard drive capped with a TD pass to open their NFL careers. Perhaps there's a more obvious answer: The Raiders pass D is weak, Bulger's weapons are STILL the greatest show on earth. Holt, Bruce and Faulk are all tremendous weapons for a QB, and Marc was able to take advantage of a favorable matchup and Faulk's best game of the season. Future outlook: Here's where it gets tricky-remember, Kurt Warner came out of nowhere with a great game his first week. With Seattle and Arizona surrounding the Rams bye week, I like Bulger's chances. The Rams offensive line has its problems, but the Rams don't need to win to make Bulger an attractive fantasy option. His owners won't mind him padding his stats against prevent defenses late in games. The bye week should allow him to get more comfortable with the offense, and if the Rams can win this week his confidence will be high. I'm not sure what value you can get from him, but based on his potential (however likely or unlikely you think he is of reaching it) makes it hard to trade him. Running Backs: Edgerrin James facing the Ray Lewis-less Ravens D? On turf, this looked like a very enticing matchup. Unfortunately for Edge owners, five fantasy points doesn't win you many games. While a few RBs really surprised this week, none were more rewarding than the performance by Mike Alstott. Over one hundred yards and a couple of TDs made him the overachiever of the week. Edgerrin James Projected: 6th Finished: 40th Stats: 17 carries, 43 yards; 4 receptions, 8 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: This is a Ravens defense everyone expected to be awful, but was playing well almost entirely due to the play of Ray Lewis. Without the top defensive player in the league, how could they stop Edge? Why he busted: Someone forgot to tell the Ravens defensive line that they are a bunch of push-overs. The Ravens penetrated the Colts backfield all day, and James didn't have a lot of chances to make plays. When he did, he didn't do much. Future outlook: While everyone is entitled to a bad week, this does lead to some doubt about Edgerrin's future outlook. Is he really 100%? After five games, James has just one touchdown. Running the ball, James has been shut down the past two weeks. The question about James wasn't about how he'd play when healthy, but if he'd BE healthy. With three games against preseason stud defenses that have all disappointed (Pittsburgh, Washington and Tennessee), James' season will likely be defined over that stretch. If you're a James owner, this is a crucial week. The Colts are on Monday Night, and everyone will be watching. If he can run for 100+ and 2 touchdowns, you can trade him for whoever you want the next day. If he has another sixty yard, touchdown less game people will be avoiding James thinking he is still injured. Cross your fingers. Mike Alstott Projected: 33rd Finished: 4th 17 carries, 126 yards, 2 TD; 2 catches, 8 yards Reason for projection: Alstott didn't have 100 yards on the season before week six. Last week Mike Alstott had four carries for nine yards. With Alstott, playing time is always a question. Why he broke out: Last year in week six, Alstott ran six times for fifteen yards and no touchdowns. The following week, he scored three times and ran for 129 yards. If a defense isn't prepared to stop Mike Alstott, it's in big trouble. His combination of power and agility makes him hard to stop, but he's missing something to be an every down back. Future outlook: He's the type of runner that Gruden loves, and Gruden will likely play him more as the season goes on. He's not going to overtake Michael Pittman, but if he's the TD vulture he may end up with more value. It's hard to start Alstott every week, but I would be content with him as my bye week substitute at RB. If either Pittman or Alstott were to get hurt, the healthy one would likely be a top 12 RB, but for now I don't expect great numbers out of either player. Wide Receivers: You may be surprised to know who the top point getter at WR was this week-in fact, you may not even know how to pronounce his name. This week most of the top wide receivers played well, but there was a dud in the bunch. One week wonders are king at receiver, so it's never smart to make an important decision based on one week's worth of data on a wideout. Marc Boerigter Projected: Unranked Finished: 1st Stats: 4 catches, 85 yards, 2 touchdowns Reason for projection: If Sunday morning you asked 100 people what a Boerigter was, I'm guessing one of them would have said a football player. Why he broke out: The Chargers and Raiders missed their Marc this week (sorry, couldn't resist). If you don't gameplan against a wideout, it's not too hard for them to burn you. Any given week a wide receiver can catch four catches and two touchdowns, although one of them was a spectacular grab. Future Outlook: Even when Marcus Robinson broke out in 1999, he had a few decent games before he started becoming a star. Boerigter's a former CFL star, and I'm not sure how long it's been since a no-name was the top wide receiver of the week. While these stories are a ton of fun for the NFL, they're not real valuable to your fantasy team. Holmes, Gonzalez and Holmes are the first three options on this team, and if they can figure out another way to get the ball to Priest he'd be their fourth. While Boerigter may take the number one wide receiver spot (I don't like his chances), his value would still be no more than a number three wide receiver. Right now I'd have to consider him a one-week wonder, but he's worth picking up if you have an extra spot open on your team. Tim Brown Projected: 6th Finished: 48th Stats: 3 catches, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: The last ten years Tim Brown has established himself as one of the premier receivers in the league. The winless Rams couldn't stop the top offense in the league, could they? Why he busted: As one Raider fan told me, it's the same old Raiders. The Raiders played lousy this week, and Tim Brown was no exception. The Raiders went for it on fourth down early in the game, and after that the Rams seemed to play with more fire, passion and heart than the Raiders. Future Outlook: The Raiders overlooking their opposition is a one week problem; Jerry and Jerry are not. Porter and Rice are certainly going to hurt the stats of Tim Brown, and he doesn't bring a lot of potential. A player like Brown always seems to get his numbers, but right now it looks as though Rice is the clear one and Porter will get his catches as well. If you're a Brown owner, I wouldn't look to deal him-the Raiders will always get Tim Brown the ball, but he might not live up to preseason expectations. The next couple of weeks will be very important for Brown. Right now I'd consider trading for Brown rather than simply trading him, just because vets like him are usually undervalued especially when they have a bad week. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |