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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: This week saw several star QBs fail to reach the end zone: Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green and Brett Favre. Not only did Drew Bledsoe fail to reach the 300 yard plateau that we've come to expect, the new Buffalo Bill couldn't crack 200 yards this week. Because Favre was injured and didn't have a full game to compile stats, I'll choose the consensus stud QB at the beginning of the year in Culpepper as the bust of the week. On the other side, it was a good week to be young. Michael Vick, Chad Pennington and David Carr were the first QBs taken in the last three drafts, and all exceeded expectations by at least ten spots. Drew Brees also finished top five this week, to cap off a great weekend for the young QBs. Daunte Culpepper Projected 2nd Finished: 15th Stats: 26-39, 288 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 INT; 5 carries, 26 rush yards Reason for projection: Culpepper was the top scorer in fantasy football last week. Coming off the Vikings first win of the year, Culpepper had a chance to turn the season around. The Jets defense hadn't stopped anyone this year, and Minnesota finally had a glimmer of hope and something to play for. Whoops. Why he busted: While 15th might not sound like a bust, he was just awful on Sunday. He had three interceptions and a QB Rating under 20 in the first half (and didn't play much better in the second half). The Jets defense had come under fire over the bye week, and vets like Mo Lewis brought their A game on Sunday. Randy Moss was totally shut down, and didn't make a grab until midway through the third quarter. The Vikings offensive line and their head coach are two of Culpepper's biggest problems, and they won't be fixed anytime soon. Future outlook: While an inept offensive line is a problem, and Mike Tice has been awful this year, Culpepper was able to excel the week before with the same line and the same coach. The Jets defense deserved a lot of the credit this week, and the Jets offense was on the field quite a bit. Culpepper wasn't able to get into any sort of rhythm because of this, and it showed. With Chicago on the schedule for this week, I'd be hard pressed to not put Daunte Culpepper in my top 3 for QBs again this week. The only concern I might have as a Culpepper owner is his job security. Yes he's Daunte Culpepper, but the team is 1-5 and isn't playing with any sort of passion. Todd Bouman might be able to get the job done, or at least light a spark. If I owned Culpepper in a league, I would consider picking up Bouman just to ease my mind-no sense in playing with fire with an early pick. Michael Vick Projected: 18th Finished: 4th Stats: 16-22, 178 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT; 6 carries, 119 rush/rec yards, 1 TD. Reason for projection: How was Vick's shoulder? Would he be rusty? Would he run as much as normal? All these questions were something to consider as Vick came back after missing last week's game due to injury. Carolina's defense had been very effective against quarterbacks this year, even shutting down Daunte Culpepper in week one. Why he broke out: Is there another QB in the league that can throw for under 200 yards, without a touchdown, and finish top 5? Vick ran for 91 yards, and had a beautiful 28 yard "catch" that has been on highlight reels since Sunday afternoon. Vick was a one man show against the Panthers, and made them look silly with his speed and agility. Future outlook: I'm not sure there's a defensive coordinator in the league that can stop Michael Vick. The best news from Sunday for Vick owners was the emergence of TJ Duckett. With a running game that defenses must respect, it becomes even harder to contain Michael Vick. I see no reason for Vick to get worse as the season wears on, and he could be a top five quarterback for the rest of the year. Vick should have another big game this weekend in New Orleans, and is a must start almost every week. Running Backs: It was a good weekend to be a fan of Michigan running backs. Lion RB James Stewart had his best week of the season, and carried the Lions to .500 for the first time under the Matt Millen regime. Former Michigan State rookie TJ Duckett also recorded his first two touchdowns of the year this weekend. Former Alabama star Shaun Alexander was the bust of the week (if you're a regular of this column, this may sound a bit familiar). Whether it's Mike Holmgren's fault or not, one out of every twelve people playing fantasy football wish they had their first round pick back. Shaun Alexander Projected: 7th Finished: 38th Stats: 12 carries, 30 yards; 1 reception, 16 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Shaun Alexander looked like he had finally righted the ship, rushing for almost 100 yards with a touchdown last week. Against 1-5 St. Louis, Alexander had a chance to make everyone forget about his poor start. Why he busted: Instead, he has frustrated Seattle fans and fantasy football owners alike. Some of the blame should go on Holmgren, because your star player can't have 12 carries in the game (it was a close game for quite awhile as well). Only one of his last six carries resulted in a gain of more than one yard, and those six carries averaged 0.2 ypc. It's difficult to say he isn't the same back he was last year, but one thing is clear: his stats don't come even come close to resembling the superstud from last season. Future outlook: A few weeks ago here I wrote I had a hard time putting Alexander in my top 10 for the rest of the season. A couple of weeks later he had his breakout game on Sunday Night, and I thought he might be able to turn his season around. I won't proclaim him dead, but I doubt his owners will get much return on their investment. Alexander is a good running back, but he isn't great. Corey Dillon is great, and is able to produce numbers on an awful team. The same was true for Barry Sanders and OJ Simpson. Alexander isn't capable right now of playing great in spite of an awful team, and if the Seahawks finish at 4-12 I don't expect Alexander to do much. As of now, he's a good RB2 at best, and can't be counted on for much consistent production. James Stewart Projected: 22nd Finished: 3rd Stats: 32 carries, 172 yards, 2 TD; 2 catches, 28 yards Reason for projection: Stewart hadn't had a big game all year, but going against the Bears was a pretty good matchup. Joey Harrington had been the star of the Lions offense so far this year, so it was expected that Stewart would have a nice day in a supporting role. Why he broke out: For all intents and purposes, James Stewart was the top back in the league this week-clearly Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes are in a different league, with their seven touchdowns and fourteen receptions as proof. The Lions offensive line totally dominated the Bears, and Ford Field fans got to go home happy. James Stewart is a very capable back, and the Lions had no problem consistently feeding him the ball. A couple of short TDs capped off another great day for James Stewart. Future outlook: Another great day for James Stewart? Yes, it's true-James Stewart is no stranger to the big game. Despite playing for a team that couldn't win last year, he was actually able to run for 100 yards a couple of times, despite only sixteen and fourteen carries those weeks. In 2000, Stewart had a 3-TD game and 100 yards against the Bucs, and later had a 37 carry, 164 yard game in a dominating performance against the Jets. In 1999, Stewart rushed for 124 and two touchdowns against the Panthers. In his two starts in 1998, James the Jaguar totaled 262 yards and three touchdowns. Stewart's a bruising back, and when the defenses aren't ready he will wear them down all day. Against Buffalo this weekend, I think Stewart has a chance to have another real nice game. If the Lions keep playing well, Stewart will be a great RB2 for teams looking to add the missing piece as they go for their championship. Wide Receivers: At wide receiver, none of the big stars had a really "off" week. Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison didn't do much in blowout, but they still had decent numbers. So the worst of the best was Curtis Conway, who happened to be projected first this week, in an AFC West showdown game against the Raiders. Former AFC West wideout Koren Robinson made the most of his two catches, enough to lead the league in receiving. Koren Robinson Projected: 43rd Finished: 2nd Stats: 3 catches, 166 yards, 2 touchdowns Reason for projection: The Seahawks passing attack had been MIA so far this year, although you could say that about the entire team. Robinson hadn't done much in his career to warrant a ranking much higher than forty fourth. Why he broke out: The Rams made mistakes on his two big grabs, which netted him 159 yards. The Rams defense was very aggressive, and those two times they got burned. Two catches over 79 yards will give a WR a huge day any week. Future Outlook: Robinson was the main target of Dilfer, and I still have faith in a trio of Dilfer-Holmgren-Robinson. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Koren was able to use this game as the springboard to a very long and successful NFL career. No one has ever doubted his tools, and as the number one man on a bad team, "K-ROB" has the chance to break out. He's not a must start this week, but if he can string along another game or two, I know I'd rather have him on my roster than on my opponents in the fantasy playoffs. Curtis Conway Projected: 5th Finished: 33rd Stats: 5 catches, 55 yards, 0 touchdowns Reason for projection: Conway had a great week in week six, and was facing a Raiders team that looked poor against St. Louis. With none of the other top receivers having good matchups, it looked like Drew Brees' favorite target was in line for another big game. Why he busted: The Chargers have a few more weapons than most people thought. Drew Brees, Tim Dwight and Reche Caldwell all impressed on Sunday, and the focus was still on Ladainian Tomlinson. WRs are going to have days where they catch just 55 yards. Conway moved the chains and contributed more than his numbers showed. Future Outlook: Conway was a player many were down on before the season started, as few doubted the veteran could match last year's numbers. With a versatile Chargers offense, I think Conway should have another good season. He is on a run first team, and Marty-ball will always make LT the center of the team. Still, Conway should be good for a few more big games the rest of the way, and I wouldn't hesitate to start him any week. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |