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This year, every Tuesday, we will be looking at the big surprises and
disappointments from the previous weekend. We’ll
take a look at the players who outperformed their projected rank the most, and the ones who fell far below expectations. You will find out why they were ranked where they were, why they played like they did, and how I think they’ll do for
next week and the rest of the year. Link to last week's article. Quarterbacks: By far, the biggest overachiever and surprise at the quarterback position was Jeff Blake, who wasn't expected to play but finished in the top five. Since Blake is the backup, there's not much fantasy advice to give on him. Jake Plummer ranked eight, but threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. So instead, we'll focus on a dominating performance. The Bears looked like the worst team in the NFL against the lowly Vikings, and Chris Chandler was a big part of that. Chris Chandler Projected: 10th Finished: 23rd Stats: 15-25, 176 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 1 carry, 7 rush yards Reason for projection: During his five years in Atlanta, Chris Chandler averaged a fantastic 7.9 yards per attempt, one of the best measures of a quarterback's performance. With a trio of talented wide receivers going against one of the worst defenses in the league, Chandler was in a great position to succeed. For historians, his last game in Minnesota was perhaps his finest as a pro: 340 yards, three touchdowns, and one trip to the Super Bowl. Why he busted: The Bears offensive ineptitude only rivals their swiss cheese defense. The Bears were thoroughly whipped by one of the worst teams in the league, who were thoroughly whipped by one of the worst teams in the league just a week ago. The Bears offensive line nowhere near resembles the group from a year ago, either in personnel or performance. The Vikings defense played well, but this game was all about the Bears problems. Future outlook: Chandler's a good NFL player, albeit one with declining skills. With good wide receivers on a team that is always behind, Chandler has a chance to have good fantasy stats. The offensive line looked terrible on Sunday, and it will need to improve for Chandler to have any value (and to stay healthy). I'd hold on to him for now, because there is a chance to find a gem for almost no value here. If he can survive Philly this week, he may start having some value in the weeks ahead. Jeff Garcia Projected: 9th Finished: 2nd Stats: 18-28, 252 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT; 5 carries, 14 rush yds, 0 TD. Reason for projection: Last year's top fantasy QB had thrown for just two more touchdowns than interceptions after six weeks, and had only thrown for over 220 yards once. Believe it or not, Arizona had been one of the best teams in the league in stopping the opposing quarterbacks, ranking sixth in QB points allowed despite being lit up by Shane Matthews in week one. Why he broke out: Garcia finally played the way he can, by spreading the ball around and being very accurate. He got the ball to his playmakers, and both Owens and Tai Streets scored on great plays. He didn't run much, but did use his scrambling ability when it was needed. When he's at his best, Garcia plays smart and with poise: he was at his best on Sunday. Future outlook: Oakland and Kansas City. Garcia has a great chance to get back to being the fantasy superstar he has been for the last two seasons, facing weak pass defenses the next two weeks. You probably missed your chance to buy low on Garcia, and if you own him I wouldn't trade him for many QBs not named Vick. If Tai Streets can emerge, Garcia will have another weapon for when teams focus on Terrell Owens. If Garrison Hearst doesn't come back strong, it's yet another plus for Garcia's fantasy stats. Running Backs: A trio of backup RBs had great games on Sunday: Warrick Dunn, Amos Zereoue and Kevan Barlow. Hey, did I mention the Bears played poorly on Sunday? Anthony Thomas Projected: 14th Finished: 47th Stats: 9 carries, 18 yards; 1 reception, 3 yards, 0 total touchdowns Reason for projection: Running backs have ran wild on the Vikings for years, and if there was ever a time for A-Train to live up to his hype from last year, this was it. Thomas ran for almost 100 yards and a touchdown last week, and the Vikings defense was coming off a poor performance against the Jets. Why he busted: See above on the Bears offensive line. It's getting very hard to get optimistic on Thomas, and this game may have been the nail in the coffin. He looks a step slow, and the holes close a lot quicker than they did last year. It's hard for him to make something out of nothing, and even during his great season last year he wasn't making people miss. At his best, A-Train is running through holes and breaking tackles. Right now there are no holes, and he clearly hasn't been able to produce. Future outlook: As a rookie, he compiled an inordinate amount of fantasy points with the Bears in the lead. If the 2002 Bears can't even play with the Vikings, there's little hope to see A-Train grinding out fourth quarter victories for the Bears in the second half. In today's NFL, things change in a heartbeat. The lone hope for A-Train owners is that the Bears suddenly start winning, and Thomas can score some touchdowns. I would consider buying low on him, but be aware that he'll be on your bench until he turns it around. Warrick Dunn Projected: 21st Finished: 4th Stats: 23 carries, 142 yards, 1 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards Reason for projection: Dunn had rushed for under twenty yards each of the past four weeks, while averaging an anemic 1.8 yards per carry. Still, he was playing on turf and as the main RB due to the injury to T.J. Duckett. Why he broke out: Dunn has the ability to have great games like this any given week. The Saints weren't prepared for his great speed and elusiveness, and he burned them. Had a 56 yard run, and almost had another touchdown when Vick overthrew him at the goalline. Future outlook: Dunn's the type of player that you can't count on to produce every week, but you can't count him out for any week. On turf, his speed comes to the forefront, and his size makes him difficult to get your hands on him for long. This game certainly did wonders for his confidence, and Reeves will likely give him the ball more often. Dunn doesn't have an easy schedule coming up, but does play New Orleans again in a few weeks. I would advise starting Dunn if you feel you're playing the better team this week, but if you have enough faith in the rest of your starters I'd go with a safer option. Wide Receivers: This week, a lot of the star receivers played up to their reputation. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Tim Brown all had important weeks for their team. However, one of their teammates was the big overachiever of week eight. Not many busts this week, but when a player in the top 20 doesn't catch a pass, it doesn't fly under the radar. Tai Streets Projected: 69th Finished: 11th Stats: 2 catches, 62 yards, 1 touchdown Reason for projection: The 49ers passing attack wasn't racking up the yards, and they appeared content to play solid defense and run the ball. Streets hasn't done much in his career, and really hasn't been an important part of the team. Why he broke out: Streets still wasn't an important part of the offense, with only two catches. One of them though, was a fabulous 47-yard touchdown. With Stokes injured, Streets has a chance to stay a starter for San Francisco. Future Outlook: Streets is one of those guys that most people won't think about picking up, but I like his potential for the rest of the way. The number two wide receiver for the 49ers can always be a fantasy starter, and Garcia is starting to heat up. Garcia also started spreading the ball around better, and if Streets can earn Garcia's trust he can be the beneficiary of a lot of the passing yards the rest of the season. As mentioned before, San Francisco has an easy upcoming schedule, and if you like playing risky, Streets is a guy you may want to pickup and start this week. Johnnie Morton Projected: 20th Finished: 83rd Stats: 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns; 1 carry, 6 yards Reason for projection: The Raiders have been letting teams embarrass their secondary this year, in part because of the injuries to Charles Woodson and rookie Phillip Buchanon. This game figured to be a shootout, and while Morton hadn't produced much this year, this could have been his breakout game. Why he busted: Three reasons. One, Johnnie Morton just isn't a very good wide receiver. Doug Drinen wrote a great article in the preseason on why Morton would bust this year, and you can find that here. Two, Trent Green played poorly this weekend, and is one of the more inconsistent QBs in the league. Perhaps most importantly, on a team that already had Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzales, there just aren't a lot of balls for the new guy. Future Outlook: If you have stuck with him this long, you might as well hold on. Perhaps he'll feel more comfortable in the second half, with a few games under his belt. Right now though, he should be on your bench every week, until he does something. He is a starter on a great offense, so I would advise against waiving him-for now. Chase Stuart Exclusive to: Footballguys.com |