Passing Matchups - Playoff Week 1

Hi Folks,

Heading into the first week of the playoffs here as the NFL starts it�s �Second Season��

Other sites are cutting back on the info they send but we�ll keep providing you the same News and Matchups that we have all season.�� We billed this thing as an August to Super Bowl venture and that�s what we�ll provide.

Here�s how we see the matchups this weekend.�� As always, please refer to the cheatsheets for the final say on where we see a player.�� Just because a great player has a bad matchup doesn�t mean he�s not your starter this weekend.� We just offer the Matchup Analysis here as one more piece of the puzzle as you�re looking at this week�s games.

Let�s jump to it.

Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer

Playoff Matchups � Round 1

New York Jets� Passing Game vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Great Matchup)

Chad Pennington is playing football at an elite level at this time. Over the last three games, he has thrown 62 completions on 90 attempts for 688 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (yes, zip, zilch, nada � no picks). His excellence is the main reason the Jets managed their late-season charge into the playoffs. In recent weeks, Wayne Chrebet has reemerged as a threat with 10 catches for 128 yards and 4 scores (3/37 yards and 2 scores last week), nicely complementing #1 WR Laveranues Coles (16/242 yards and 1 score over the last three games; 6/93 yards last week). TE Anthony Becht has been quiet (1/9 last week; 4/36 over the past three games).

Pennington was behind Vinny Testaverde when these two clubs were AFC East rivals, so recent history is no guide for us on him. However, Coles and Chrebet have only scored 1 touchdown each against the Colts during the 2000 and 2001 seasons (Chrebet caught 25 passes against them in that span; Coles had 7 receptions) � the Colts have limited these two in games when Testaverde was slinging the pigskin.

The Colts� secondary has been terrible during the last quarter of the season, allowing 257 passing yards per game on average (28^th in the NFL during the past four weeks), and ranking 27^th, 19^th and 23^rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. Last week Jacksonville understudy David Garrard managed 13/26 for 135 yards, 0 scores and 0 interceptions, so you can see they were really shelled in the three games prior (the Giants� Collins was 23/29 for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions week 16, Tim Couch threw 21 completions on 35 attempts for 287 yards and 2 scores with 0 interceptions week 15, and Tennessee�s McNair was 19/23 for 237 with 1 score and 0 interceptions). The above are some pretty ugly numbers for a playoff team.

The current forecast calls for rain mixed with snow on Friday, then cloudy and cold conditions on Saturday (high of 33�F), so the field in New York could be sloppy and slippery at game time.

The Colts list a huge number of players on the injury report � their secondary is really banged up. Listed as questionable are the following: CB Brian Legeib (hip), LB Sam Sword (ankle), and LB Marcus Washington (knee). Listed as probable are the following: CB Jason Doering (neck), CB Nicholas Harper (back), LB Mike Peterson (hand), CB Walt Harris (knee), CB Joseph Jefferson (hand) and LB Donnel Thompson (wrist). Only the Jets� punter appears on their list. Harris starts at LCB, across from Idrees Bashir. Obviously, injuries are playing a roll in the Colts� slide vs. the pass.

Pennington is no Vinny Testaverde � he�s better. Expect the Jets to enjoy lots of success against the vulnerable Colts� secondary on Saturday.

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Pittsburgh�s Passing Game vs. The Cleveland Defense (Good Matchup)

Tommy Maddox has played solidly since his return from a spinal concussion, and has connected 57 times on 86 attempts for 639 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions over the last three weeks. Plaxico Burress is on fire during that span, with 299 yards and 1 score from only 14 receptions, while Hines Ward is less impressive but still productive, putting up 14 receptions for 163 yards and 1 touchdown. Burress has 11 receptions for 153 yards and 1 score in his two games vs. Cleveland this year; Ward has 18 for 183 yards and a score. Both players broke a 2 year drought in terms of touchdowns against the Browns this season � neither had touchdowns vs. the Browns in 2000 or 2001, while Kordell Stewart was under center, and 75 yards was the most either managed to amass in one game in 2 seasons prior to 2002 (Wards high vs. Cleveland in 2002 was 104; Burress� was 84).

Cleveland�s pass defense has been very mediocre in the final weeks of 2002, allowing an average of 183 yards per game (7^th in the league), but ranking 14^th, 12^th, and 22^nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. Last week, the Browns held Vick and company to 240 yards, 1 touchdown with 1 interception in the season-finale victory over Atlanta.

The conditions in Pittsburgh at game-time will be snowy and cold (~30�F), according to early forecasts. Both teams hail from the frozen AFC North, so they are used to playing in such weather.

Neither of these units list injuries of note.

Maddox and his receivers are really in sync lately, and the Browns are only so-so at pass defense. The Steelers have the edge in this matchup.

Green Bay�s Passing Game vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Brett Favre had a frustrating game last week against the New York Jets, and ended the day cooling his heels on the bench once the game was put out of reach by Pennington and company. It was definitely an off day. Over the past 3 games, Favre has been atypically poor at throwing the ball, managing only 56 completions on 99 attempts for 487 yards, 3 scores and 3 interceptions (28^th among all fantasy quarterbacks in that span). Donald Driver was injured in the game last week, and his absence definitely contributed to the Packer�s troubles � Glenn and Ferguson just aren�t receivers who strike fear into the opposing secondary. In the first game of 2002, Favre dissected the Falcons (25/36 for 284 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions), so he�s had good success against them this year.

In their only other meeting since 2000, week 10 of 2001, Favre managed 2 scores on 16/29 for 269 yards worth of work, but threw 3 interceptions to the Falcons. Since then the starting receiving corps has completely turned over, so the comparison between 2002 and 2001 doesn�t tell us anything about Driver and Glenn�s chances (neither played Atlanta in 2000 or 2001).

Atlanta�s defense is being very generous to opposing quarterbacks in the final weeks of 2002 � they are 19^th in the NFL allowing 219 yards per game on average over the past four weeks, and rank 23^rd, 26^th and 9^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span.

This game is scheduled to start at 8 P.M. in Green Bay � the mercury will dip far down the thermometer by then, to be sure. Current forecasts call for cloudy weather with snow flurries, and a low of 19�F (depending on how blustery it is the temperature could feel like it is well into the negatives including wind chill). The passing game could be de-emphasized in such conditions.

Atlanta�s secondary will be without LB John Holocek, and lists backup CB Juran Bolden as probable to play through his calf injury, as is Chris Draft (back � probable). Green Bay says that Driver is questionable to go, while Favre (ankle/knee � probable) and Robert Ferguson (back � probable) are expected to play as usual.

When Favre and the Packers choose to throw the ball on Saturday, they should have opportunities to do good things.

Atlanta�s Passing Game vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Michael Vick has been throwing the ball a ton lately, and was the 3^rd best fantasy quarterback over the last 3 games of the NFL season, with 58 completions on 116 attempts for 817 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Last week he hit only 17 completions on 40 attempts, but produced 240 yards and 1 score with 1 interception in those few happy completions. Brian Finneran snagged 3 balls for 77 yards and the score in the game, and is the #1 wide-out on the team, but Quentin McCord has come on in recent weeks while Shawn Jefferson has been unable to play � both Finneran and McCord have 10 receptions over the past three weeks (Finneran 10/176 and 2 scores; McCord 10/247 and 1 TD). Week 1, Finneran snagged 2 balls for 20 yards from Vick, who threw for 209 yards and 1 score (to TE Alge Crumpler) against the Packers that day.

Finneran scored a touchdown during the week 10 game of the 2001 season (against the Packers), but only caught 2 balls for 24 yards that day. Vick was backing up Chris Chandler and didn�t see any action � Crumpler managed 2 grabs for 10 yards during that game.

Green Bay�s pass defense has not surrendered a bunch of yards during the December stretch run (170 yards per game on average, 2^nd in the NFL), but they have been scored upon through the air quite a bit, as their 15^th and 16^th ranking during that span in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers shows (2^nd vs. tight ends, however). Chad Pennington ripped them for 4 touchdowns (only 196 yards) last week � 3 went to wide receivers, and 1 to Ritchie Anderson the fullback.

The Packers list key S Darren Sharper as questionable with his sprained knee, and� reserve CB Tod McBride is also questionable with a groin injury.� Back-up CB Erwin Swiney is probable to play through his quadriceps injury. WR Shawn Jefferson remains questionable to play with his bad hamstring.

Look for Vick and the Falcons to choose their spots carefully, and to test the Packers � especially if Darren Sharper can�t play on Saturday � and to have reasonable chances for success when they do throw the ball.

San Francisco�s Passing Game vs. The New York Giants Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Jeff Garcia had light duty last week, playing only 1 series in a meaningless game vs. the Rams. In the 3 games prior to last week, Garcia had 688 yards with 5 scores and 2 interceptions, so he�s been playing reasonably well in the final weeks of 2002. In week 1, Garcia and company outlasted the Giants 16-13, in which game Garcia threw for 166 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception (the scoring toss went to Garrison Hearst that day). Terrell Owens has been resting up his sore groin in recent weeks � he had 8 catches for 75 yards and a score 3 weeks ago in his only late-season action. In his absence, Tai Streets has been pretty solid, snagging 14 balls for 144 yards and 2 scores in the last 3 games of the season.

These teams did not play each other in 2000 or 2001, so recent history gives us no help in evaluating this particular matchup.

The Giants have been winning in the last quarter of the season, but they have been giving up a ton of passes during recent weeks, while CB�s William Peterson and Will Allen have struggled with various injuries. During the final four weeks of the season, the Giants allowed 260 yards per game on average (29^th in the NFL), and ranked 24^th, 30^th and 19^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. Last week, the Giants� D rebounded, and held the Eagles� Feeley to 150 yards passing, with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception (they had both starting CB�s back in the lineup).

Pleasant weather is forecast for the game � partly sunny skies with a high of 61�F, and a low of 48�F � perfect football weather.

No Giants� defenders are listed on the injury report. WR Terrell Owens is probable to play through his groin injury.

The Giants pass D is bouncing back from their late-season doldrums � and the 49�ers remain a potent offense. This matchup is a toss up.

The New York Giants� Passing Game vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Kerry Collins has moved into top form in the last weeks of 2002, putting up 61 completions on 91 attempts for 812 yards, 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception over the past 3 games. He did fumble the ball quite a bit last week, but other than those glitches Collins is on fire. So are Amani Toomer (18/360 yards and 3 scores in 3 games) and Jeremy Shockey (20/242 yards and 1 score), for that matter. Throwing 25/35 for 256 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception (as Collins did last week) against the Eagles is a solid game by any yardstick. In week 1, Collins and company lost to the 49�ers, partly due to Collins 0 touchdown, 3 interception performance (28/45 for 342 yards in that game). However, he and the Giants are playing much better at the end of the season than they were to begin it.

These teams did not play each other in 2000 or 2001, so recent history gives us no help in evaluating this particular matchup.

San Francisco�s pass defense has been tightening down during the final weeks of 2002, and ranks 3^rd in the NFL over the past four weeks allowing only 177 yards per game while ranking 10^th, 5^th and 31^st in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. Last week, Jamie Martin exploded on the 49�ers in the fourth quarter, throwing for 3 late scores to lead his team to an upset victory (San Francisco�s second-stringers were in the game for the most part, though, so don�t be too impressed).

Pleasant weather is forecast for the game � partly sunny skies with a high of 61�F, and a low of 48�F � perfect football weather.

New York lists WR Ron Dixon as questionable to play due to his knee injury. LB Jamie Winborn (knee � doubtful), LB Saleem Rasheed (thigh � questionable), starting CB Jason Webster (ankle � questionable), and S Zack Bronson (foot � probable) are all on the 49�ers injury report � the secondary is kind of banged up heading into this game. Webster�s backup is the much-victimized Mike Rumph, so pay attention to his status as the game nears.

Two solid units square off in this matchup � neither has a huge edge over the other going into the game. If Rumph ends up playing a bunch, then Collins and the Giants should be upgraded one notch to �Good Matchup�.

Indianapolis� Passing Game vs. The New York Jets� Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning comes into this game playing fairly well, having amassed 788 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions over his past 3 games (with 8 rushes for 43 yards in addition). However, he was relatively quiet last week in a close game vs. the Jaguars � tossing 20 completions on 28 attempts for only 146 yards and 1 score with 0 interceptions during a sub-par outing. Harrison has been his usual stellar self, and has accumulated 25 receptions for 328 yards and 3 scores over the last 3 games of the season. With complementary receiver Qadry Ismail out due to a concussion, Marcus Pollard (5/39 yards and 1 score last week, and 12/149 and 1 score during the final 3 games) and Reggie Wayne (3/29 yards last week, 9/133 and 2 scores over the last 3 weeks) have become the other options in the Colt�s aerial attack.

These two teams were AFC East rivals until realignment this season, and Manning has played solid games against them in the previous two years � his best game during that span came in week 14 of the 2000 season, with 27 completions on 51 attempts for 339 yards, 2 scores and 2 interceptions, while his least-successful outing in 2001 was 25/35 for 228 yards, 1 score and 0 interceptions. Harrison caught 1 touchdown in 3 of the Colts last 4 regular season games vs. the Jets, and Pollard had 3 catches and 1 score in each game against them during the 2001 season, so Manning�s main weapons have done well against the Jets in recent years.

The Jets� secondary has been stout in the last quarter of the 2002 season, ranking 10^th in the NFL allowing only 198 passing yards per game, and they ranked 8^th, 2^nd, and 28^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. They frustrated Brett Favre last week � he was limited to 16 completions on 33 attempts for only 172 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception � the Jets� defenders are really hot right now.

The current forecast calls for rain mixed with snow on Friday, then cloudy and cold conditions on Saturday (high of 33�F), so the field in New York could be sloppy and slippery at game time.

The Jets list no new injuries of note on the injury report. The Colts� aerial unit is good to go as well.

In New York�s home stadium against the revitalized Jets� pass defense, the Colts and Manning will face very stiff resistance.

Cleveland�s Passing Game vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tim Couch broke his leg, and now it�s Kelly Holcomb�s show in Cleveland. The rust showed last week when he came off the bench in relief of Couch � 7/14 for only 86 yards, 1 score and 2 interceptions � but Holcomb was effective early in the season (27/39 for 326 yards and 3 scores with 0 interceptions week 1; 17/30 for 198 yards 2 scores and 0 interceptions week 2; and 13/23 for 180 yards, 2 scores and 2 interceptions week 5), so the Browns feel that they can move forward with confidence. In his games this season, Dennis Northcutt, Andre Davis and Kevin Johnson have been Holcomb�s primary targets � all three have caught multiple TD�s from Holcomb�s hand. Among the Browns� wide-outs, only Quincy Morgan has scored on the Steelers in 2002, in the game week 9.

Holcomb has no history vs. the Steelers as a member of the Browns. Johnson, Northcutt, and Quincy Morgan have had poor luck vs. Pittsburgh in years past (0 scores among them during 2000-2001).

Pittsburgh�s pass defense is solid, ranking 5^th in the NFL allowing only 182 yards per game over the final four weeks of the regular season, and ranking 3^rd, 3^rd and 26^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. Last week they played atypically poorly, allowing 336 yards and 2 scores (with 2 interceptions) to Baltimore�s Jeff Blake.

The conditions in Pittsburgh at game-time will be snowy and cold (~30�F), according to early forecasts. Both teams hail from the frozen AFC North, so they are used to playing in such weather.

Only Couch appears on the Browns� injury report. The Steelers list key LB Kendrell Bell as questionable with an ankle injury, as is CB Chad Scott (hand). Starting LB James Farrior is probable to play despite a sore shoulder.

Holcomb and the Browns have a hard road ahead of them, playing at the Steelers� home stadium and against a stout secondary. The advantage goes to the home team in this contest.