Passing Matchups - Playoffs Week 2

Hi Folks,

Here�s how we see the matchups this weekend.�� As always, please refer to the cheatsheets for the final say on where we see a player.�� Just because a great player has a bad matchup doesn�t mean he�s not your starter this weekend.� We just offer the Matchup Analysis here as one more piece of the puzzle as you�re looking at this week�s games.

Let�s jump to it.

Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer

Playoff Matchups � Round 2

Philadelphia�s Passing Game vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Donovan McNabb is back under center, and he looks ready to rock-n-roll, according to head coach Andy Reid. �I don't know a measuring stick on that, other than he looks pretty good,'' Reid said, when asked whether McNabb was 100 percent. �I think after the game you can kind of tell exactly where he's at, when he hits the game speed and the adrenaline starts flowing and all that happens. Right now, he looks good.� Todd Pinkston is also expecting to play, despite his painful turf toe � �I know it's going to bother me. But I know the game means a lot and I want to be out there with my teammates, trying to get to the next level. If that means playing in pain, I'll play in pain.� Nobody on the team comes into the game hot � A.J. Feeley was cold week 17 vs. the Giants, 13/25 for 150 yards and 1 interception, and nobody broke 40 yards receiving on the day. In 10 games this season, McNabb threw 211 completions on 361 attempts for 2289 yards, 17 scores and only 6 interceptions, but he hasn�t been on the field since week 11.

The last time these two teams met, in week 5 of 2000, Charles Johnson and Torrance Small were the starting wide receivers, and Atlanta had a different defensive coordinator, so there isn�t much to learn from history to help us evaluate this game.

Atlanta�s defense finished the year playing fairly poorly vs. the pass, allowing 219 yards per game on average (19^th in the NFL) during the final four games of the season, and ranking 23^rd, 29^th, and 9^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Last week, though, they limited Brett Favre to 247 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, as the Falcons became the only NFL team in history to beat the Packers in Lambeau field during the playoffs. Not bad work at all, really.

The Falcon�s secondary is looking fine, injury-wise, and aside from Pinkston�s toe and McNabb�s ankle the Eagles are healthy, too.

The weather in Philly will be cold � the game starts at 8 pm, and the low for the day is forecast to be 18�F. No precipitation is forecast for the days leading up to the game, so the turf shouldn�t be too slippery.

McNabb is as good as they come at his position, and Atlanta�s defense is vulnerable to the pass. This is a good matchup for the Eagle�s franchise player to shake off the rust.

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Atlanta�s Passing Game vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

Michael Vick wins games by taking what opposing defenses give him � if the opposition bottles up the run, he throws the ball. If the opposition strangles the wide receivers, he and his teammates Dunn and Duckett rush the ball. Last week, Dunn and Vick each ran for 64 yards (Duckett managed 45 yards and a score) � meanwhile Vick was limited to 117 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions on 13 completions through the air vs. Green Bay. It was good enough to advance into the second round of the playoffs. Shawn Jefferson snagged the score on 1 catch for 10 yards, while Finneran led all receivers with 4 catches for 35 yards (Dunn added 40 yards on 4 grabs, too).

The last time these teams met, in week 5 of 2000, Chris Chandler was the quarterback, Jamal Anderson was the starting running back, and Vick wasn�t on the roster. History isn�t much help in evaluating this matchup in January of 2003, as the Falcon�s roster is radically different now.

Philadelphia�s passing defense wasn�t very stout in the final weeks of the 2002 regular season � they ranked 14^th in the NFL over the final four weeks of play, allowing 205 yards per game. Those numbers are right in line with their season average of 215 yards per game allowed, 12^th in the NFL during 2002. During that final four week span, they were 20^th, 10^th, and 30^th ranked in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Kerry Collins was 25/35 for 256 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception against the Eagles to end the season week 17.�

The Falcons� wide receiving corps is healthy coming into the game, while Philly lists key S Blaine Bishop as probable with a groin injury. Injuries aren�t a huge factor in this matchup heading into the contest.

Atlanta has a lot of weapons to deploy in order to go after Brian Dawkins and company � can the Falcons� coaches create enough mismatches in the Eagles� coverage to shake their receivers loose? There should be some opportunities for plays against the middle of the road Philadelphia secondary.

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San Francisco�s Passing Game vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Bad Matchup)

Jeff Garcia and the 49�ers receivers made an epic come-back last week, and overwhelmed the Giants in the 2 quarters of play (New York led 38-14 midway through the third quarter). Terrell Owens was huge in the clutch, with 2 touchdowns and 2 crucial 2 pt conversion catches while snagging 9 balls for 177 yards on the day. Eric Johnson (8/78) and Tai Streets (5/58 and 1 score) did their part, too, on a day when Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow combined for 10 carries, 27 yards, and 1 score. Garcia finished the day with the following numbers: 27/44 for 331 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, with 7 rushes for 60 yards and another score running the ball.

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These teams have not met since the beginning of the 2000 season, so recent history gives us no help evaluating the matchup.

Tampa Bay has one of the best defenses in the league, and closed out the regular season ranking 1^st in pass defense allowing only 166 yards per game on average over the final four weeks of the season. During that span they were 1^st, 4^th and 10^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, so they are tough in the red zone as well. Derrick Brooks ran back 4 turnovers for scores this year, 3 interceptions and 1 fumble on the way to winning honors as the defensive player of the year. He�s a major component of the pass defense that also features Pro Bowlers like S John Lynch.

The Buccaneers have no defenders listed on the injury report. Terrell Owens appears as probable to play for the 49er�s with his strained groin.

The weather in Tampa is forecast to be mild (64�F for the high and 50�F for the low) and partly cloudy. No rain is forecast either Saturday or Sunday, so the field should be in decent shape, too.

Anytime you play Tampa�s defense you face an uphill battle. Playing at their house makes succeeding just that much more difficult.

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Tampa Bay�s Passing Game vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup)

Brad Johnson�s back is better, and he is ready to lead the Bucs into their game vs. the 49�ers. In the last 3 games that Johnson played, he threw for 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception, including a stellar 23/31 for 276 yards passing, 4 touchdown with 0 interception effort vs. Atlanta week 14, so he was on a tear prior to his back injury.

Keyshawn Johnson was quiet in the 15-0 snoozer against Chicago that closed out the season, but had 132 yards and 1 score on 8 receptions week 16 vs. Pittsburgh.

These teams have not met since the beginning of the 2000 season, so recent history gives us no help evaluating the matchup.

San Francisco�s secondary is having major problems defending the pass. Mike Rumph gets routinely victimized, and the 49�ers have been forced to play him due to CB Jason Webster�s bum ankle (Webster is questionable to play this week). S Zack Bronson didn�t look good in his return from a nagging foot injury (probable this week), and LB Saleem Rasheed is still nursing a sore thigh (probable). All the problems with injuries and inept play have led to a lot of points being surrendered � Kerry Collins racked up 342 yards and 4 scores against the secondary last week. Jamie Martin, #3 on St. Louis depth chart, also put up 245 yards, 3 scores and 2 interceptions in a meaningless game week 17 � but that looks like the start of a trend now that Collins abused the 49�ers so thoroughly last week. The team ended the season ranked 3^rd in the NFL allowing only 177 yards per game over the final four weeks of the season, and was 10^th, 5^th, and 31^st in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, so the problems are of recent vintage.

The weather in Tampa is forecast to be mild (64�F for the high and 50�F for the low) and partly cloudy � perfect weather for a football game. No rain is forecast either Saturday or Sunday, so the field should be in decent shape, too.

�A solid NFL quarterback like Johnson with crafty, veteran wide receivers like Johnson and McCardell should have a field day against the struggling 49ers.

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Tennessee�s Passing Game vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Neutral Matchup)

For the first time since October, the Titan�s Steve McNair is feeling well. The plethora of nagging injuries that McNair has been playing through had time to heal over the bye week, and McNair is reportedly feeling fine heading into the game. That�s good news for the Titans, because McNair was hardly scintillating in the final three games of the season (136 yards passing with 1 interception week 15 vs. NE; 115 yards passing with 1 touchdown week 16 vs. Jacksonville, and 148 yards passing week 17 vs. Houston) � his team won all three games, but fantasy owners were hardly thrilled with McNair�s production to close out the season. With Kevin Dyson out, offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger expects to see a lot of double-teams on Derrick Mason and Frank Wycheck this week � the Titans need Justin McCariens and Drew Bennett to make plays as the #2 and #3 wide receivers.

In week 11 of this season, the two teams clashed and Tennessee emerged victorious, 31-23. McNair had one of his better games that week, going 18/33 for 257 yards, 2 scores and 0 interceptions on the day. Kevin Dyson caught 8 balls for 87 yards and both scores, Mason snagged 6 balls for 85, McCariens caught 1 for 55 and Bennett managed 1 catch for 11 yards. In years past, the teams were divisional rivals, and played twice a year. Pittsburgh won both games in 2001 � McNair had a big game week 11, 23/37 for 334 yards, 2 scores and 2 interceptions, but a bad game in week 7 throwing for 14 completions on 23 attempts for 175 yards, 1 score and 2 interceptions. Both Mason and Dyson were over 100 yards in the week 11 game, and neither broke 60 yards receiving in the week 7 contest. In 2000, Tennessee won both contests � these teams have a history of hard fought games.

The big news for Pittsburgh this week was the loss of S Mike Logan. He had knee surgery Monday that repaired torn cartilage, the lateral collateral ligament, a tendon and a muscle in his right knee � it was a major knee injury that he suffered in the wildcard round win over Cleveland. Brent Alexander now will take over Logan�s role in the defense. With starting CB Chad Scott questionable to play due to his broken thumb, and CB Chidi Iwuoma still limping due to a right knee contusion, depth in the secondary is a huge concern. Backup DB Hank Poteat was sliced, diced and julienne fried by Cleveland�s Kelly Holcomb in Scott�s absence last week � the Pittsburgh secondary as a team was embarrassed by allowing 429 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. This from a squad that closed out the final four games of the regular season as the 5^th ranked secondary in the NFL, allowing only 182 yards per game and ranking 3^rd, 3^rd and 26^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. However, in the past two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Kelly Holcomb and Jeff Blake to complete a total of 45 of 69 pass attempts for 765 yards and five touchdowns, so they have played two weak games in a row. Besides Dyson, the Titans� unit is healthy.

The forecast for the game in Tennessee calls for partly sunny, cool temperatures with a high of 40�F � no precipitation is forecast for earlier in the week, so field conditions should be decent.

The Titans� passing game is limited by the absence of Dyson, and hasn�t been powerful in the weeks that ended the season. The Pittsburgh secondary is a bunch of walking wounded that melted down during the last few weeks. Neither unit has a clear edge over the other heading into this contest.

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Pittsburgh�s Passing Game vs. The Tennessee Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tommy Maddox went 3-1 as a starter once he returned from the scary neck injury he suffered week 11 in the game vs. the Titans. In the playoff game last week he fought through some early turnovers to lead his team to a come-back victory (30/48 for 367 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on the day) over Cleveland, 36-33. Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress each went over 100 yards on the day (104 and 100, respectively) and both scored. Antwaan Randle-El also contributed heavily last week, catching 5 balls for 85 yards, and Terence Mathis snuck in 3 receptions for 40 yards. There is no lack of good targets on the Steelers� team. Late in the game, Maddox and company looked unstoppable.

In that week 11 contest, Maddox was having a rough day before getting knocked out of the game � he was 14/28 for 194 yards, with 1 score and 3 interceptions before being rushed to a local hospital. Kordell Stewart did good work in relief (13/17 for 124 yards and 2 scores with 0 interceptions). Hines Ward had a huge day � 10 catches for 168 yards and 2 scores. In 2001, Burress was the Titan�s nemesis, going over 100 yards in both games (6/151 week 7, and 8/114 and a score week 11) � both Pittsburgh�s top receivers have enjoyed big days vs. the Titans in recent history.

Tennessee�s defense closed out the regular season strong, allowing only 20 points in the final 3 games vs. New England (7), Jacksonville (10), and Houston (3). Indianapolis scored 17 on them week 14. Over the final four games, Tennessee was the 12^th ranked passing D in the league allowing 201 yards per game, and ranked 6^th, 1^st, and 23^rd in fantasy points surrendered to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span.

Tennessee CB�s Samari Rolle (ribs) and Donald Mitchell (ankle/foot) are banged up and questionable on the injury report. Hines Ward has a quadriceps contusion but is probable to play.

The forecast for the game in Tennessee calls for partly sunny, cool temperatures with a high of 40�F � no precipitation is forecast for earlier in the week, so field conditions should be decent.

Pittsburgh will have to work hard against the hard-nosed Titan defenders in this game � but they have the talent to make good things happen, as well. Neither unit has an overwhelming edge over the other heading into the game.

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Oakland�s Passing Game vs. The New York Jets Defense (Good Matchup)

Rich Gannon�s numbers for the regular season: 418 completions on 618 attempts, for 4689 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Awesome, in a word. Gannon�s pace slowed somewhat in the waning weeks of the 2002 season � he had 3 touchdowns and 1 interception during the final 3 games of the season, but only managed 484 yards in those contests (he threw for a paltry 79 yards during the whole Kansas City game, but the Raiders were busy trampling the beleaguered KC rush defense with 60 rushes for 280 yards and 2 scores, so there was little need to throw the ball). Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Doug Jolley and Tim Brown all provide sure hands and are targets #1 � #4 for the Raiders� offense heading into the game this week.

These teams have played close games often in the recent past, including a wild-card matchup after the 2001 season. In week 13 of 2002, the Raiders prevailed 26-20 in a game where Gannon shredded the defense for 31 completions and 342 yards, but only 1 score (0 interceptions). Brown caught 8 balls in that game to lead the Raiders (90 yards), while Jerry Rice snagged 4/66 and a score. Jolley, Porter and Charlie Garner were all in the mix that day as well. In the 2001 wildcard game (Oakland won 38-24), Gannon was 23/29 for 294 yards, 2 scores and 0 interceptions; the week before that, in the final regular season game (Oakland lost 24-22), he put up 23/38 for 234 yards, 1 score and 0 interceptions. Rice destroyed the Jets in the playoffs last year with 9 receptions for 183 yards and 1 score � in the other games, Gannon has tended to spread the ball around amongst his many weapons.

In the final four games of the season (after the Oakland game), the Jets won 3 of their last four and were a dominant pass defense, allowing only 198 yards per game (10^th in the NFL) and ranked 8^th, 2^nd, and 28^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. The Jets played the best wild-card round pass defense, shutting down Peyton Manning and company allowing only 137 yards passing and 0 touchdowns, with 2 interceptions in the course of routing Indianapolis 41-0.

The Jets� defense is healthy � the Raiders list only TE Roland Williams (knee/toe) � he�s doubtful to play.

The forecast for Sunday calls for partly cloudy skies with a chance for rain, with a high of 58�F and a low of 47�F � weather shouldn�t factor in too much, unless it rains a bunch after kickoff.

Gannon and the Raiders have enjoyed a lot of success against the Jets� defenders, they have plenty of playoff experience, and Jerry Rice (perhaps the best play-off performer in the history of pro football), to guide them. The Jets are not going to be a push-over, though � but they are the ones trying to win at Oakland, one of the toughest houses in the NFL. The advantage goes to the Raiders in this matchup.

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New York Jets Passing Game vs. The Oakland Defense (Good Matchup)

Chad Pennington�s regular season numbers: 275 completions on 399 attempts for 3120 yards, 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in only 13 games (spot duty weeks 2 and 3). As the season progressed, he only got stronger: over his last three games � including the 222 yards, 3 touchdown with 0 interceptions effort last week during the 41-0 flaying of Indianapolis � he has 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, with 703 yards and 72% completions (59 of 82). Talk about red-hot � nobody is getting it done better right now. Last week he really spread the ball around � three different Jets caught TD�s (Ritchie Anderson, Santana Moss and backup TE Chris Baker), and the top receiver on the day was Anderson with 66 yards.

Laveranues Coles has been huge in the Jets� games vs. Oakland � in week 13 this season he had 10 catches for 158 yards; in the 2001 wildcard game he caught 8 balls for 123 yards, and the week before that in the 2001 season finale he had 5 catches for 111 yards and 1 score. Anthony Becht really struggles against the Raiders, though � only 1 catch for 4 yards in the last 3 games between the two teams.

The big news out of Oakland this week is that key CB Charles Woodson should be back to action, after having surgery to correct his fractured left fibula on Dec. 24^th. Tory James, who had the same procedure to correct his right fibula earlier this season and recovered very quickly, is definitely going to start � the presence of both players on the field will be a big boost. Over the final four weeks of the regular season, with both players hampered by injury, the Raiders were 21^st in the NFL allowing 224 yards per game, although they did limit scoring � the team ranked 2^nd, 8^th, and 18^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span.

Besides Woodson, the secondary is ready to go for the Raiders. The Jets are healthy as can be.

The Jets� attack is firing on all cylinders right now, while the Raiders have struggled of late and will be trying to get the rust knocked off Charles Woodson�s game in a hurry. Coles has had lots of success against the Raiders, and Pennington is red-hot � the edge goes to the Jets in this matchup.