Passing Matchups - Playoffs Week 3

Hi Folks,

It�s time for Championship Weekend.�� Here are the Matchup Reports for this weekend�s games from our Mark Wimer.

Have a great one.

Joe

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Joe Bryant

[email protected]

Owner � www.Footballguys.com

Championship Game Matchups

Tennessee�s Passing Game vs. The Oakland Defense (Tough Matchup)

Steve McNair needed Drew Bennett (7 receptions for 85 yards last week) and Justin McCariens (2 grabs for 53 yards) to come up with some plays last week vs. the Steelers, and they obliged � helping the Titans survive 34-31 and advance into this game. Their presence in the passing game helped Frank Wycheck shake loose and he responded with 10 grabs for 123 yards and 1 touchdown. McNair was 27/44 for 338 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on the day, so he comes into the conference championship hot.

In week 4 this season, the Titans started the game down 21-0 in the first quarter on the strength of a 17 yard TD reception by Charlie Garner, and then 2 punt returns for touchdowns, one by Phillip Buchanon and the other by Terry Kirby. In the end, the Raiders won by a 52-25 margin. On that day McNair threw for almost 400 yards attempting to rally the Titans (Bennett and McCariens both caught TD�s in that game), but he also tossed 4 interceptions vs. only 2 scores � in their two games since the start of 2000, McNair has thrown 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Derrick Mason has led the team in yardage (99 and 78 yards, respectively) in the two games played since the 2000 season.�

Oakland�s defense is different today than it was back in week 4 � Charles Woodson is back in the lineup and playing well after his fractured fibula, while Phillip Buchanon is on IR now � and they were stout against youngster Chad Pennington last week, allowing the Jets� star only 183 yards passing. They basically shut Pennington down in the second half, dooming the Jets� Super-Bowl aspirations. Over the final four weeks of the season, the Raiders weren�t particularly good vs. the pass, allowing 224 yards per game (21^st in the NFL), but they ranked 2^nd, 8^th, and 18^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends in that span, so they were doing something right in the red zone.

Charles Woodson is listed as probable to play despite the leg injury � he�s definitely going to be in the game. QB Steve McNair�s thumb is fine, despite the team listing him as �questionable� � the offending digit was numbed in the Steelers� game, but McNair was slinging the pigskin downfield after the injury, and he�s good to play this week.

The weather forecast for Oakland calls for no precipitation on game day or during the days leading up to the game, and for temperate conditions � a high of 58�F and a low of 46�F � just about perfect football weather.

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McNair has two steady, veteran targets in Wycheck and Mason, and youngsters Bennett and McCariens did some nice things vs. the Raiders week 4, as well as last week in the playoff game. The Raiders elevated their game vs. the Jets and dominated Pennington and company. The edge goes to the Raiders on the strength of their �twelfth man� � the home field advantage tips the scales to the defenders in this one.

Oakland�s Passing Game vs. The Tennessee Defense (Good Matchup)

Was anybody outside of the New York Jets� most die-hard fans surprised when Rich Gannon slapped 283 yards and 2 scores (with 1 interception) on the boys in green? We certainly weren�t. Jerry Porter announced his presence with authority (6 receptions for 123 yards and 1 score), while aging-like-fine-wine Jerry Rice snagged yet another touchdown during the playoffs on one of his 4 receptions for 47 yards. All told, 6 Raiders caught balls in the game.

Looking back over the two games the Raiders have played against the Titans since 2000, one thing is certain � Jerry Rice is a one-man wrecking crew against these guys. This year in week 4 he snagged 7 balls for 144 yards and 1 score (Gannon threw for 4 touchdowns (and 381 yards on 29 receptions) week 4 � one each to Rice, Brown, Garner and Porter).In week 15 of 2001 Rice led the Raiders with 84 yards on his 6 catches, with a long of 40 yards in the losing effort.

Tennessee�s secondary was playing pretty well to end the 2002 season, averaging only 201 passing yards per game allowed over the final four games (12^th in the NFL), and ranking 6^th, 1^st, and 26^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span. But last week, Tommy Maddox ripped them up for 266 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in the Steelers� �third-times-a-charm� loss to the Titans.

CB Andre Dyson is listed as questionable with his separated shoulder on the Titan�s injury report, and Coach Fisher has indicated that Dyson actually is a game-time decision. TE Roland Williams is very doubtful to play due to torn ligaments in his knee and toe, but Doug Jolley has been great in William�s absence, so there is no drop-off at the position if Williams can�t go.

Anybody who thinks that Rich Gannon and the Raiders� receivers can�t do even better against the Titans than Tommy Maddox and the Steelers� receivers did needs to check their prescriptions for contra-indications. The Raiders have more talent in this phase of the game than the Titans do.

Tampa Bay�s Passing Game vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Buccaneers finally won a playoff game by scoring touchdowns on offense, and got that monkey off their collective back. Keyshawn Johnson, Joe Jurevicius and Ken Dilger all caught multiple balls, though Keenan McCardell was unaccountably frozen out of the action last week. Brad Johnson�s 15/31 for 196 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception performance wasn�t dominating, but it was effective.

However, Johnson has been anything but effective in a series of disappointing games vs. the Eagles. 19/31 for 124 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception in week 7 of 2002, before being forced from the game with sore ribs inflicted by the Eagles� defense. 22/36 for 202 yards, 0 scores and 4 interceptions (1 returned for a score) in the wildcard round loss in 2001. He was mostly held out of the week 17 game in 2001, only throwing 4 passes before giving way to fan-favorite Shaun King. The Buccaneers haven�t beaten the Eagles in the new millennium � 3 of the 4 losses have come in Veterans Stadium, site of this week�s playoff game.

Philadelphia�s secondary gave away a lot of real estate to Michael Vick and the Falcons last week � 288 yards � but the ball-hawking secondary snagged 2 picks and Bobby Taylor ran one of them back for a touchdown. Atlanta did not see the end-zone all day long. Philly surrenders yards and points to the opposition through the air � they ranked 14^th in the NFL over the final four weeks of the regular season, allowing 205 yards per game on average, and were 20^th, 10^th, and 30^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span � but they also force opposing quarterbacks into bad throws and create turnovers to help out their own offense, too. Bobby Taylor stripped Mike Alstott of the ball last time these teams met, setting up a Philadelphia field goal to open the week 7 victory.

Brad Johnson won�t let a few stitches from a forehead laceration keep him out of this game. Philadelphia�s starting S Blaine Bishop has a sore groin, but he�ll play, as will LB Shawn Barber (knee).

Weather in Philadelphia is exactly what you would expect in Pennsylvania during January � cold. The high is forecast to be near 34�F, with a low of 22�F, under clear to partly cloudy skies. Even though they finally won a game in the cold for the first time this year, the Buccaneers struggle in such conditions, as a general rule.

Home-field advantage, the cold, plenty of success defeating the Buccaneers in the recent past � you�ve got to give Philadelphia a big edge in this matchup, mitigated somewhat by the amount of yards and points they allow through the air.

Philadelphia�s Passing Game vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Guess Donovan McNabb didn�t need long to shake off the rust, huh? 20/30 for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions � not bad for a guy who hadn�t played for 2 months. James Thrash caught two long balls for 77 yards and 1 score, while Todd Pinkston snagged 5 receptions for 48 yards. In all, 8 players brought down at least one pass from McNabb last week.

The Eagles have defeated Tampa in 4 straight games, 2 of them in the playoffs, and a lot of the credit goes to McNabb, who has played in 3 of the 4 victories, including both playoff wins. Over those 3 games he has 5 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions (1 per game) and 2 scoring runs. Todd Pinkston has led the team in receiving yardage in the last two meetings (4/61 yards this season, and 5/62 yards in last year�s wildcard game), and scored once in week 7 this season.

Tampa�s secondary is fearsome � Derrick Brooks scored on a fumble return in the week 7 game this year � and they dominated the 49�ers last week, humiliating the 49�ers 31-6 and ending Steve Mariucci�s coaching tenure in San Francisco. Garcia had 0 scores and 3 interceptions in the game, balls caught by Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber and Dwight Smith. Barber had a score called back. Over the final four games of the season, Tampa was 1^st in the NFL allowing only 166 yards per game on average, and ranked 1^st, 4^th, and 10^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends during that span.

McNabb�s ankle came through the playoff game fine (probable), as did Pinkston�s sore toe (probable). The lone Buc defender on the injury report is CB Corey Ivy (Achilles � probable).

The Buccaneer�s secondary is awesome, but so McNabb and the Eagle�s stable of receivers is pretty great, too. This one is an even-up matchup from where we sit.