Rebuilding In Dynasty Leagues
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Posted 8/13 by Nick Pasto - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Even the best fantasy football players draft a bad team every now and then.
While a bad draft often means a lost season in redraft leagues, owners of lousy
teams can still build for the future in dynasty and keeper leagues. This piece
will focus on how to turn your last place dynasty team into a league champion.
Now or Later?
The first thing one must decide when rebuilding a dynasty team is whether to
try to win now or later. If your team is loaded with promising rookies and second
year players then you may want to try to package some of those guys for established
stars. This is a fairly obvious way to make your team an instant contender.
However, trading away all of your youth may leave you hurting in future seasons.
More importantly, it is unlikely that a bad team will have enough assets to
trade for a solid starting lineup. Winning now is ideal, but it is not always
a possibility and owners with truly awful teams are often better served by planning
for the future. Losing can be frustrating, but rebuilding a franchise usually
requires patience.
The Great Fire Sale
Think back to your main league last year. It's quite likely that even the worst
team in the league had a few players that could have played for any of the other
teams in the league. For example, the last place guy in my main league last
year had a mean WR tandem of Eric Moulds and Peerless Price. Even if you came
in dead last in 2002, it's likely that you have some quality players somewhere
on your roster. The first step to rebuilding your dynasty is deciding who these
players are and what to do with them. It should be easy to identify your star
players. Simply look at who did well last year and take into account the Footballguys.com
projections and rankings for this next season.
Once you've identified your quality players, you'll need to decide what to
do with them. While a guy like Curtis Martin might be a nice player to have
this season, you are better off trading him away for younger guys if he is all
you have at RB. Why? Well, it's simple: Martin is a great player, but he is
aging and it's unlikely he'll be productive a few years down the line when your
team is competitive. It is better to trade older guys now while they still have
value than it is to watch them decay on your roster. The decision to trade or
hold becomes a little tougher when your best players are young guys like Koren
Robinson and Todd Heap. While you may be tempted to deal such guys due to their
high trade values, it is probably a better idea to hang onto them. Receivers
and tight ends tend to last a while, and young guys who are exceptionally talented
will probably still be making plays when your team is ready to contend. Ideally
you'll have some veterans to trade and some younger guys to keep. The main point
here is that you need to try to project whether or not a given player will still
be able to help you to a championship in a few seasons. If the answer is yes,
keep the player. If the answer is no, trade him.
Who to Target
After you've decided who to trade and who to keep, you'll need to decide which
players you want to acquire from other teams. This is probably the most difficult,
yet important aspect of rebuilding a dynasty team. You need to make your best
attempt to identify young players who will have a chance to play and excel in
the near future. Everyone has their own opinion of who will end up doing well,
but I'll go ahead and suggest a few players and why you might want to think
about trying to get them. The important thing is to recognize why I recommend
these players and then to try to find other players who satisfy the same criteria
for potential success.
- Marques Tuiasosopo, QB, Oakland: Tuiasosopo is appealing for many
reasons. First off, he is Rich Gannon's backup. The Oakland offense has produced
big numbers recently and Tuiasosopo should get the first chance to run it
should the aging Gannon get hurt. Secondly, Tuiasosopo was a fairly high NFL
draft pick who demonstrated in college that he can be effective running with
the football and leading an offense. Though none of these things guarantees
he'll ever be a productive NFL QB, it is clear that the potential for success
is there. Tuiasosopo doesn't have a lot of value right now so you'll probably
be able to get him for next to nothing. It's no big deal if he doesn't pan
out because his price tag is so cheap.
- Andre Davis, WR, Cleveland: There has been much talk about the Cleveland
WRs this offseason, and with good reason. Davis, a rookie last season, is
the youngster in the group. The former Virginia Tech star was a second round
pick in 2002 and did not disappoint in his first season. He quietly posted
solid rookie WR stats by catching 37 balls for 420 yards and 6 scores. Those
numbers aren't far behind those posted by fellow class of 2002 WR Ashley Lelie,
and yet Davis tends to go many rounds later in dynasty drafts. Davis clearly
has potential and with everyone focused on Quincy Morgan and Kevin Johnson,
he should be available at a very affordable price.
- Marcel Shipp, RB, Cardinals: Most serious fantasy football players
know Shipp's name well, but he still seems to be undervalued. He proved last
season that can be an effective back by rushing for 834 yards on only 188
carries. Other backup RBs with similar potential are going much earlier. Kevan
Barlow is in a situation that is somewhat similar to Shipp's and yet he typically
goes several rounds ahead of the Arizona RB. While Barlow, a former third-round
pick, has a better pedigree than the undrafted Shipp, their numbers and situations
are still fairly similar. I'll admit that I think Barlow is the better player,
but Shipp may offer the better value. RBs with potential never come cheap,
but a veteran like Curtis Martin should easily be able to land you Shipp and
a couple of other high quality prospects in a trade.
Now before we move on, I need to make it clear that I'm not necessarily predicting
huge things for any of the players above. I'm merely trying to show you what
kind of players you should target in your rebuilding process. Ideally you want
guys who have shown flashes of production and who may be poised to see more
playing time in the near future. The same theory of taking young guys with potential
and opportunity applies to waiver selections as well. Keep in mind that while
all of the above guys have legitimate chances to be solid fantasy starters within
a few seasons, there are never any guarantees in fantasy football.
Rookie Draft
One of the great things about having a lousy team in a dynasty league is that
you should get one of the top picks in the rookie draft for the next season.
As a very bad team, it would be an equally bad move for you to trade your draft
picks. Each draft class produces several fantasy studs and it would be a mistake
to kill your chances at getting the cream of the crop. Teams in rebuilding mode
should probably plan to choose a RB early in the rookie draft because good RB
prospects are much more difficult to obtain than good WR prospects. Next year's
class could include several backs who are likely to be high NFL picks such as
Virginia Tech's Kevin Jones, Oregon State's Steven Jackson, Auburn's Carnell
"Cadillac" Williams, Florida State's Greg Jones, and Tulane's Mewelde
Moore. Don't wait until the day before the rookie draft to do your homework
on these guys because you'll want to have a clear idea of which players you
like going into the draft. There are lists of the top players for 2004 all over
the internet and if you have the time it might be worthwhile to try to watch
as many of their televised games as you can.
Patiently Waiting
Above all, building a winner out of rubble requires patience. Don't be discouraged
if your team takes a while to get going because it will eventually come together
as long as you keep plugging along and adding good prospects here and there.
Veteran fantasy players will almost certainly get an urge to trade away their
youngsters for current stars if they see their teams stumble out of the gates,
but it's important to resist this temptation unless you are certain that you
can get enough players to contend immediately. There's no sense in trading away
your future so that you can go 6-5. One last tip is to keep an eye out for mid-season
pickups. Weak teams have to trade particularly well because they don't have
a lot of assets so you'll really have to be crafty. Last year some people wrote
Plaxico Burress off after his slow start, but he came alive and eventually put
together a very strong season. Certainly there is some hyped up young player
such as Donte Stallworth or Ashley Lelie who will get off to a slow start. Look
out for these guys because you may be able to steal them for a bargain price
once their owners become frustrated.
Last Word
No one likes losing games, but you can always rise to the top in dynasty leagues
as long as you don't lose hope. With patience, clever trading, and effective
drafting, you can turn your last place team into a powerhouse in just a season
or two.
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