Monday, July 1st / 2002

RB Antowain Smith, New England Patriots

Height: 6-2  
Weight: 230  
Born: March 14, 1972, Millbrook, AL  
College: Houston

Career Statistics:    

Chris Smith’s Thoughts:  

A change of scenery can certainly do wonders for a player in the NFL as it did last season for Antowain Smith of the Patriots.  His career in the NFL seemed all but washed up after Buffalo cut the cord and let him leave the organization after a few disappointing seasons.  Nobody thought he could walk into New England and become the full time starter, let alone take on a starring role in a Super Bowl run and yet that is exactly what happened during the 2001 campaign.

As good as he was last season though, he should still be considered as a risky early round pick in fantasy football drafts for a number of sound reasons.  First he is already on the wrong side of thirty, which is the notorious benchmark for when a running back begins to falter.  Other concerns of mine would be his poor receiving skills that don't add many fantasy points to the table and the very real potential of a Patriots post Super Bowl meltdown.  If the defense slips even a little bit from the high level they played at, the Patriots will have to pass more than they would like and that could take touches away from Smith.  In addition, the first place schedule won't help the running attack and his career high in touchdowns a year ago (before this year, it was only 8) isn't likely to be duplicated.

He isn't going to be a complete bust this season but don't draft him higher than you should either.  He will make a decent second running back on a fantasy team but his totals will not be high enough to expect him to carry your team as the first option at the position.  Don't even consider drafting him until round four at the very least.

290 carries for 1100 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns.  130 receiving yards and a total of 171 fantasy points

Comments from the P.O.D. Thread in the forum: (make sure you click on the link that takes you to the thread.  There are many fantastic thoughts that I wasn't able to fit into this article). 

Link to the thread: Click Here  

Positive responses:

Juicecore: 

" ...the Pats like to run and Antowain will get the bulk of the work with many opportunities in the red zone. Definitely a solid #2 running back in any redraft league."

Ministry of Pain:

"When you take all of Antowain Smith's carries since entering the NFL back in 1997 and all of his rush TD; you end up with an average of 11 TD if he totes the rock 300 times during the season. Will Smith get 300 carries this season? Why not."

coachjim:

"I don't see him getting as many carries as some think he will. In reality New England had a dream season from Brady taking over for Bledsoe to beating the Rams in the Super Bowl."

Cremrock:

"I will never be convinced that Antowain Smith is among the more talented RBs in the NFL. That said, his style is perfect for New England; he gets stronger as the game goes on."

PDog:

"No matter how hard I try,  I just cant find a reason to drop A.Smith down on my RB rankings.  Last year the guy just flat out produced week in and week out.  He isnt flashy, plays for a boring blue collar team, doesn't break loose for 50 or 60 yard runs.  He's not one of those "sexy" type of players that grab your attention. But just like the woman who cooks and cleans for you, he's under appreciated."

NE_REVIVAL:

"...There is no legitimate reason to think Smith will have anything other than another solid and productive year."

"Antowain Smith is not a flashy running back. He does not amaze coaches with his talent. He does not catch the ball especially well...But when called on, Antowain Smith is a very consistent runner."

Negative responses:

BGP:

"Drinen wrote an article on F-R.com a while back determining the peak years for football players. He found RBs peaked at age 27. Antowain Smith will be 30 this year."

Lung Nugget:

"His role in N.E. is similar to Lamar Smith's Miami years. In fact, I see their careers becoming mirror images of each other.  Smith had the late career breakout season (2000) and faded back to obscurity (injury status played a role though). Smith will follow Smith with a quiet 2002 opening the door for Redmond and a trade next spring."

rolliehouliranson:

"if A. Smith is your best back, you're in trouble. He will make an adequate 2RB. I predict a down year for both him and Brady, who in my opinion over-performed last year."

ramincol:

"...the Pats will come back down to earth. Brady is not that good of a QB the WR's are not that good. Pats playing a tougher schedule this year. I also think that a injury's could come to the Pats and A Smith is a prime candidate."

Footballguy Projections:

Chris Smith's Projections:  

P.O.D. average projections