Friday, July 5th / 2002

RB Edgerrin James, Colts

Height: 6-0  
Weight: 214  
Born: August 1, 1978, Immokalee, FL  
College: Miami (FL)

Career Statistics:    

Chris Smith’s Thoughts:  

"Which round is the best round to take a chance on Edgerrin James this season?  That is the question being asked by many fantasy owners who love his fantasy production from 1999 and 2000 but dread his health status following a major knee blowout last season.

When looking at James fantasy worth in the upcoming campaign, a couple of points really stand out.  The first big question mark when evaluating him is can he be recovered fully by the start of the season.  The answer to that is yes, but it is certainly unlikely because history is not on his side.  It usually takes more than one full season for a player to recover from major knee surgery .  James is supposedly running well but whether that translates into being able to cut on a dime won't be determined until pre-season games begin.  The fact is he hurt it in game five last year means he doesn't have as long to get it back up to full strength like a Jamal Lewis might in Baltimore.   

Another legitimate concern in regards to picking him up early in a fantasy draft is the capable backup runner behind him in the depth charts.  His name is Dominic Rhodes and as a rookie last season he more than proved that he is capable of full time running back if given the opportunity.  The Colts may well decide to limit the touches of James and bring him along slowly which would mean more carries and touchdowns for Rhodes.  If Rhodes only steals 6 touches per game, it would translate to over 90 lost for James.

My draft strategy I almost always follow now certainly holds true in the draft.  I tend to avoid players coming off of injuries or having to compete for the job during the first two rounds of the draft.  James falls under both categories and I'll be avoided him during rounds one and two.  If he does happen to fall to round 3, I would love to select him because of his potential, confidence and former talent.

James was the Prototype, young stud in fantasy football the past few years.  He is a big, powerful back with good speed and wonderful hands.  He will recover from the injury to have a solid year but the first half of a season will be slow.  Don't take him before round 3. 

270 carries for 1138 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns
40 receptions for 360 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
for a total of 209.8 fantasy points

Quotes from the P.O.D. Thread in the forum: (make sure you click on the link that takes you to the thread.  There are many fantastic opinions that I wasn't able to fit into this article).

Link to the thread: Click Here  

Positive Responses:

Loss by design:

I believe, that unless Dungy decides to split a lot of time between Rhodes and James, Edge will have another monster year. Dungy's presence can only help the Colt defense.

The Monsoon:

Not much is going to change for the Edge this year regarding how he is utilized. He still has the same RB coach and offensive coordinator, so they know how best to use Edgerrin. The ball will continue to get into his hands quite a bit as a receiver out of the backfield, as well as a decent amount of carries.

Al Davis:

Everything I read about the Edge in Florida is that he feels 100%. Mind you it is not the NFL but articles have him playing hardcore pick-up basketball games and making sharp cuts in flag football games. He says the beach running has helped with the healing lending good shock distribution.

Gatorman:

I think that if edge is available in the second round, it would be a steal for whoever picks him. I think the guy is good for 225 - 250 carries and somewhere is the 1200 - 1300 range. I think his receptions will be down because there are more wr weapons in Indy now, and a suspicion that rhodes will be a 3rd down back/spell edge a bit.

dcbill:

think Faulk's odds of injury are being underestimated and Edge's odds are being overestimated, which means Edge is the value pick - very high upside for greater than average risk - I'll take those odds.

Negative Responses:

tommygunZ:

I believe fantasy drafts are lost in round 1, not won. I wouldn't touch Edge with my first pick, but as a mid to late round choice in round 2, I'd probably have to roll the dice. Thankfully, he won't be around at that point, as some clown in almost every league will grab him late in round 1. I think there are at least 10 RB's out there I would rather have...

Woodrow:

I'm not saying Edge won't be the man this year, but I am saying that there's enough uncertainty and historical precedence about players returning from serious knee injuries to keep me away.

Just Win Baby:

Con: I have read that Moore prefers to feature only one back, but I have a hard time believing that Rhodes will get no touches if Edge is healthy. Before Edge's injury, it made sense to give him all the touches, since he was dominant and Rhodes was an unknown. But now Rhodes is proven and, even if he seems healthy, doubts about Edge's knee will still linger.

Joffer:

Have to respectfully disagree here. If Edge is active in training camp, and begins the year as the starter, I don't think he'll get stronger as the season wears on. Getting 20+touches a game will not allow the knee to get better or stronger. It will be so sore it'll bother him all year.

Woodrow:

FACT: EDGE tore up his knee last year
FACT: It's very rare that players, no matter the skill level, return to top form the first year back from knee surgery

Cremrock:

Regardless, if you want him, you're going to have to take him in the 1st or 2nd round, and that's too high for me to take the risk.

Footballguy Projections:

Chris Smith's Projections:  

P.O.D. average projections