Projections:

1100 Rushing Yards, 7 TD
400 Recieving Yards, 2 TD
Injury Risk: 6

Commentary:

As a Saints fan, I feel like I have some decent perspective on this guy. No doubt about it, Ricky is talented. He is a powerful back with a nice burst of speed who can wear out defenses in the fourth quarter, especially if he's got 15-20 carries going into it. His receiving ability has improved and gives him an added dimension.

However, there is some downside. He has a propensity for fumbles, perhaps due to his notorious "small hands". He is primarily a north south guy and does not run sweeps particularly well. While he is an adequate receiver, he does not have great ability to make defenders miss.

Perhaps most important is his attitude and possible psychological problems. He suffers from social anxiety disorder, and he was never well liked by almost any of his NO teammates. He seems to quit in games where he does not get 10+ carries in the first half. He also has many off field problems, exemplified by several run ins with the law in Miami.

Williams will post solid numbers, but his strange behavior and personality will prevent him from being a true part of the team. In NO, Williams could often be found on the furthest ends of the bench, 20 yards from his nearest teammate. This lack of chemistry with his teammates and coaching staff will prevent him from becoming an elite back. In addition, he has struggled with injury in the NFL.

Final Analysis: A gifted back who will nevertheless find himself just outside the NFL elite due to lack of mental/psychological drive.

Bad Dog
Footballguy
Member # 9060

Ricky Williams looks like a top-five back at first glance. He's going to a new team as the purported savior of said team. He's walking into a situation with a new offensive coordinator (Norv Turner) who ranks as one of the best running back producers of all time (Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, LaDainian Tomlinson). He's coming off of his best season in terms of yards and catches, and he started all 16 games for the first time.

However, there are several reasons to not like Ricky this year.

1. O-Line - Dolphins have been bad for some time on the O0-line, and had many injuries last year. Their 2002 line looks much worse than the one Ricky ran behind last year in NO.

2. TD's produced - Jay Fiedler ran for 4 TD's last year, and will probably be a goal-line option again in 2002. Miami still has Ray Lucas, who is a potential vulture at the stripe. Ricky has never ran for more than 10 TDs in a year, and last year only got 6 in 16 games. He doesn't look likely to suddenly produce 16 in 2002.

3. Injuries - Last year was his first injury free season. He had only 6 games with 20 or more rushes, which probably contributed to his relative health. If Miami starts using him a ton, his chances of injury will increase, perhaps dramatically.

4. Receptions - Williams got 60 receptions last year, for over 500 yards. Pretty good numbers. However, he was basically getting all balls in New Orleans that didn't go tot the wide receivers. No other backs caught 20 passes, and the tight ends were mostly hurt all year. In a typical Norv Turner offence, the fullback and the tight end get lots of looks. Look for Rob Konrad and Jed Weaver, very underutilized last year, to get a lot more looks and cut into Ricky's pass receiving numbers.

Projections:
300 rushes, 1150 yards, 8 TDs
40 Receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD
Injury risk - 4 out of 10.

crâcKer
Footballguy
Member # 1650

Ricky Williams

'02 projections (based on playing 14 of 16 games):

280-1158-8 rushing
47-427-2 receiving
injury: 5/10

Fumblitis, short arms, small hands, blah-blah-blah...

I just think that the hype is growing far beyond what the Ricky Williams we've become accustomed to will produce. As previously stated, the O-line in Miami isn't better than what he played behind the last couple of years in New Orleans. So there's no reason to assume that he'll gain 1800 yards like he's playing for the '98 Broncos. Will he benefit from playing in a rush oriented offense with a rushing minded coaching staff? Of course he will. And if he plays a full 16 game "healthy" schedule, I see him approaching 1800-1900 total yards with upwards of 12 TDs. I'm puttin' my money on 14 full games (with a couple of 'dinged up' games mixed in) & the projections listed above reflect that.

He'll be a fantasy disappointment to everyone that drafts him in the top 3-4.

Chadstroma
Footballguy
Member # 969

You have got to love the situation Ricky is heading into. The Dolphins still have intact one of the best defenses in the league and a head coach who has been praying for a hard running back that he can ride. We all know that the Dolphins are not going to look for their air attack to win games while they have the QB's they have. One of the biggest things that held Ricky back last year was the Saints getting behind in the latter part of the game, and having to go to a passing game to catch up, this should not happen often in Miami.

The whole personality thing has been overplayed by some, and too much has been bought into it. From what I have read the Miami players have made an effort to make Ricky comfortable, and in return Ricky has made an effort to fit in (while taking his medication helps too). That being said, I think the only thing that will be possible to slow Ricky down this year is injury. That is the only problem or negative in my mind that is a real threat, but I think the risk over the average RB is not that high to drop Ricky very far at all on most peoples (and especially my) draft charts.

Rushing Yards: 1450 TD's: 9
Receiving Yards: 300 TD's: 1
Injury: 5

Grange Coffin
Footballguy
Member # 1092

The first point I will make about Ricky is that he never missed a practice in college, missed only four games in his rookie year and he broke his ankle in week 11 of his second year. He isn't a Robert Smith or Fred Taylor type of back who sit out when their pinky hurts. This is a physically tough player who is a bear to bring down for even the best tacklers. He showed a good nose for the endzone in 99 with 8 rush TDs in 11 games. Ricky is going to play for a coach who is a running backs wet dream, always giving the ball to his go to guy when the game is on the line, unlike Jim Haslett, who often resorted to complicated trickery at the goalline instead of pounding it in with his bruising tailback. He also has a very good quarterback (finished top ten in most leagues last year) who plays gutsy and tough with an excellent young rec. in Chambers in addition to the solid Gadsden and speedy Mcknight. The defense is still way above average and they have played very well together for several years. His offensive line may not yet be as talented as the Saints, but without the injuries they suffered last year, they may play better than the pouting Roaf, the violent Turley and the rest of the Saints Motley Crue front five.

On the downside for Williams is his mental toughness and desire. I won't pin his meltdown in 2000 completly on him, the entire Saints organization was in upheaval at the end of last year, Turley was going nuts on the field, Roaf was openly pissed at the coaches, theft in the locker room and very questionable coaching decisions left the Saints as individuals and not as a team. However, superstars shine during times like those, and rickey didn't, he hid behind his personality disorder and finished the last four games with a whimper along with the rest of the Saints. If he reacts that way every time things don't go his way, he is in for a very short tenure with the Dolphins unless they can find a way past their December slumps and end their string of HUGE playoff defeats. He is supposed to be their saving grace but they may need save him if he can't straighten his head out.

In the end though, I have a lot of faith in Williams, he is leaving his old team and coming to a new place where he is already hailed a hero, if he gets comfortable and plays like he can I believe he will finish in the top five easily, and push for MVP honors. I see shades of Holmes, A. SMith, M. Faulk, etc. I see Turner building an offense around his new weapon and the imaginative Feidler finding a way for Williams to make some very big plays.

Rush Yards 1380 on 325 carries
Rec Yards 550 on 63 catches
17 Rush TDs, 4 Rec TDs
Injury Risk - 2 out of 10