posted June 25, 2002 05:08 PM             

85 Receptions
14.5 YPC
1233 Yards
9 TD's
Injury Risk: 3 out of 10

posted June 25, 2002 10:04 PM                

I went to NFL.com and pulled up Bledesoe's previous 5 years (excluding 01 since he played so little). He averaged 3740 yds passing per year and 22 TD's. These stats include 98 when he played in only 14 games

Bledsoe will be on a mission to prove that NE made a mistake in getting rid of him.
He has a better receiving duo than in NE along with a better TE.

Moulds is a top tier WR and will be the big benificiary of Bledsoe's arrival. He also has something to prove after a subpar year in 01. He will quickly become Bledsoe's favorite target and should have big RAC yards.

Projections
Rec. 85
Yards 1350
TD's 10+

posted June 25, 2002 10:49 PM                

Moulds definitely has the talent to be a top 5 WR, but QB troubles have held him back. He probably is one of the most underrated big play receivers in the league. Check this out:

1998
9TDs (8 over 40+)
1999
7TDs (6 over 40+)
2000
5TD (4 over 40+)
2001
5TD (all 5 over 40+)

Even in down years ('99,'01) most of his TDs have been long ones. Because of Moulds big play capabilities and the addition of Bledsoe I think his TDs and receptions should go up.
On the other hand I am cautiuos of him because him and Bledsoe will need time to gel. Who knows how long they will take to get on the same page.(preseason?,midseason?,late?)And I am not sold on Henry or the OL which will really affect his receptions and yardage.
If Williams and Gilbride can get Bledsoe and the Bills offense on the right track Moulds will be a top 10 WR again. If they falter I still expect Moulds's numbers to be a little higher than last year's due to the addition of Bledsoe.

80 rec
1225yds
15.3yds/catch
8TDs (7TDs over 40+)
2-10 inj risk

posted June 26, 2002 01:35 AM                

I have seen Eric play 1st hand. It was the playoff game against Miami in Miami during his 1st breakout season in 1998. I also owned Moulds in my league that season. Now I grew up in Miami and watched Mark Clayton, Mark "Super" Duper, Nat "Helicopter catch in the Meadowlands" Moore, Irving Fryar and so on. I watched Moulds put on a clinic against a talented group of DBs. He had Flutie throwing the ball and I can say honestly that Flutie rarely hit him in the numbers. I believe Moulds had something like 250 yards catching and 2 TDs. He was nothing short of amazing.

Now that the Bills have acquired one of the better starting QBs in the league I cannot see why Moulds numbers can't get better. I admit he is like Jimmy Smith when it comes to TDs. Actually more like Keenan McCardell, however he can catch the BOMBs. I think his surrounding talent is getting better as well. Price should take some heat off him and Henry will get better in his second year. Moulds will play 4 games against the Dolphins/Patriots and they will have strong defensive schemes but he sees them every year so he has to figure out ways to score on them. Also Bledsoe has seen them year in and year out too so that can only help.

Moulds has avg 75 catches for 1175 yds and
7 TDs over the past 4 years. That's good consistency considering his QB situations. Moulds has never had a QB like Bledsoe and Bledsoe has never had a WR like Moulds. (Sorry Terry Glenn fans). I really hope Moulds does slip into the 5th or 6th round in my draft because I think I will get a steal. Top10 possibility at WR. I am still cautious about his TD.

Projections:
85 rec, 1,300 yds, 8 TD. =194 Pts 2/10 Inj

Last season that would have marked him 5th, ahead of guys like Randy Moss, Jimmy Smith, Tim Brown, Joe Horn, and Torry Holt. Moulds is an elite WR that will get his opp to shine this year.

posted June 26, 2002 09:00 AM                

Originally posted by Just Win Baby:
I think that people are way too high on Moulds.

Last season the Buffalo QBs completed 327 of 556 passes for 3722 yards, 18 TDs, and 20 interceptions.

For those who think Moulds will get more catches, is it because Bledsoe will complete more than 327 passes?

First of all, at Bledsoe's career completion rate (56.3%), he will need to throw 581 times just to reach 327. Since the Bills QBs attempted only 556 passes last season, that is already 25 more attempts just to break even. On the other hand, Bledsoe has averaged 578 attempts per 16 games played in his career, so perhaps we can give him the extra 25. But more than that? I don't think so.

So the total completions should be about the same. Let's move on to who is catching them.

Here is the breakdown for those 327 receptions:

WRs:
Moulds 67/904/5
Price 55/895/7
Germany 12/203/0
McDaniel 11/129/0
Black 8/90/0

RBs:
Centers 80/620/2
Henry 22/179/0
Bryson 9/59/0
Morris 7/36/0
Crosby 2/16/0

TEs:
Riemersma 53/590/3
Jackson 1/1/1

It is fairly well known that Bledsoe likes throwing to his backs and tight ends, so I doubt their numbers will drop. Bryson may be traded, but he only takes 9 receptions with him. Any dropoff by Centers will likely be made up for by Henry/Huntley. I would call RBs/TEs a wash. That's roughly 175 receptions.

Other than Moulds and Price, the rest of the WRs only caught 31 balls last year. Hard to believe that number will drop with the arrival of Josh Reed. If anything I would expect it to increase somewhat, perhaps to 40-50. But let's be charitable and call it 30.

That only leaves about 120-125 balls for Moulds and Price. Even if Price didn't increase his total from last season, that leaves only 65-70 for Moulds. And personally I expect Price to play well this season, since it is his contract year.

On to TDs. Bledsoe has averaged about 21.25 TD passes per 16 games in his career, and he has only thrown more than 20 three times in his career. So maybe he'll throw a few more than last season, let's say 21-23. I could see Moulds getting a couple of them, but I don't see any reason to predict more than 7. Moulds has averaged less than 5.5 TDs per 16 games in his career and has exceeded 7 TDs only once.

Bottom line: I don't see any way to justify a prediction of more than 70 catches or 7 TDs for Moulds. At his career rate of 15.1 ypc, that's 1057 yards.

70/1057/7 would have ranked Moulds 19th last season, and that's right about where he should be ranked this year IMO.

Frankly, I am very surprised at how high everyone is on Moulds. Based on some of these projections, many of you apparently think he will be in the top 7 or 8 WRs in the league. I just don't see it.

I am interested in seeing some analysis from those who project big stats for Moulds. Where will they come from?

My projections are above. I would say he is a minimal injury risk, as he has only missed 2 games in 6 seasons.

Player Name

Team

Rec. Yards

TD

Fant. Pts.

Eric Moulds

Buff

938

6

129.8