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Hi Folks, Here�s our look at the Rushing
Matchups for this week. PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace
the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we
see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in
the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup. Also note, just because a player
has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your
league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league,
that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. Let's jump to it. Joe ************************************* Joe Bryant Owner � www.Footballguys.com Week 12 Rushing Matchups Written by Mark Wimer and Joe
Bryant Kansas City�s
Priest Holmes vs. The Seattle Defense (Great Matchup) Priest Holmes: #1 among NFL backs in points scored this
season, with 1012 yards, 15 touchdowns rushing, 468 yards receiving and 2
touchdown grabs. Seattle�s rushing D: dead last in the NFL, allowing 170
yards per game this season, and 27th in the NFL allowing 141 yards
per game over the last four weeks, ranking 26th in the league in
points allowed to opposing backs during that span. Seattle gets LB Anthony Simmons back this week for 15-20
plays, after he spent 10 games on the sidelines with a high ankle sprain. Think
he�s a little rusty? Starting LB Isaiah Kacyvenski is very doubtful with an
ankle injury. Starting DT Chad Eaton twisted his right knee in practice, and
had an MRI (no results yet). Starting linebacker
Chad Brown (broken right foot) and defensive end Brandon Mitchell (calf) are on
IR. K.C. lost T Willie Jones this week to a neck injury � out for the season. Holmes vs. Seattle = a legitimate shot at a
career game for Priest Holmes. Minnesota�s
Michael Bennett / Moe Williams vs. The New England Defense (Great Matchup) If it ain�t broke, don�t fix it my father always taught me.
That�s the attitude that Mike Tice has about his rushing attack � the tandem of
Bennett and Williams is highly productive, and will be the modus operandi going
forward for the rest of the season. Too bad, for if Michael Bennett were
scoring all the touchdowns that Williams plunges in, he�d be one of the top 5
backs in the NFL, easy (Williams owners feel the system is just fine, thank you
very much � at least one touchdown in 7 straight games fits into their plans
quite well, I�m sure). Meanwhile, Bennett racks up 100+ yards games with ease
in the second part of the season (4 and counting). New England lays down for opposing backs -- #26 this season,
allowing 128 yards per game, and #17 over the last four weeks, allowing 106 per
contest while ranking 30th in points allowed to opposing backs � now
that�s generous! New England�s unit is healthy coming into the match.
Minnesota has some bumps and bruises � T Lewis Kelly is questionable with an
ankle problem; G Corbin Lacina is probable to play through his leg problem, as
is Williams (heel) � but no major concerns. Look for New England to keep on giving generously to the
Vikings this week. New York
Jets� Curtis Martin vs. The Buffalo Defense (Great Matchup) Curtis Martin has over 300 yards of combined yardage in the
last three weeks (223 rushing, 80 receiving) and 2 scores. That represents a
huge improvement over his early performance this season � and the Jets look
like they are on a roll, so don�t look for him to slow down now. Buffalo hasn�t been tough to run on all season (124 yards
per game allowed, 21st in the NFL), and they are giving up lots of
points to opposing fantasy backs. During the last four weeks, the Bills rank 31st
out of 32 teams in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs, and are 18th
vs. the rush in yards allowed, surrendering 108 per game. Both teams are largely healthy, and the Jets got an added
boost when OG Dave Szott rejoined the blocking unit after spending most of the
season recovering from a right knee surgery (torn ligament � he�s listed as
questionable this week). The cagey vet has 13 years of experience, so he could
be a big bonus to Martin. Also dinged up is G Randy Thomas (knee �
questionable). The surging Jets will batter the Bills with Martin all day
long, and have success doing it. Oakland�s
Charlie Garner vs. The Arizona Defense (Great Matchup) Charlie Garner must be licking his lips in anticipation of
this matchup. Arizona is allowing 126 yards per game on the season, 25th
in the NFL � as if that weren�t bad enough, they have rolled over and died the
last 4 weeks, allowing 165 yards per game (30th in the NFL) � and
that includes an anemic 42 yard performance by Shaun Alexander (the team got
151 against the Cards, though � Maurice Morris was especially effective).
Philly rushed for 213 against them last week, St. Louis slapped 192 yards on
them week 9, and San Francisco amassed 106 week 8. They are 32nd in
the league vs. opposing backs in that four week span. Garner hasn�t seen the end-zone in a couple of weeks, but he
went over 100 yards combined against the Pats last week after being stuffed by
the formidable Broncos two weeks ago.��
You do have to worry about Zack Crockett stealing the goalline
opportunities. The Oakland unit is ready to rock. Arizona is dinged up: DE Tom Burke (thigh-questionable), DT Marcus Bell
(shoulder-probable) and LB Rob Fredrickson (neck � probable) appear on the
injury report. Only Seattle would be easier for Garner to tear apart.
Arizona may actually be worse than the Seahawks right now, in fact. Tennessee�s
Eddie George vs. The Baltimore Defense (Great Matchup) Tennessee is hot right now, and Eddie George did his part
again against the Steelers, rushing for 79 yards and 2 scores (a 2.8 yards per
carry average over 28 carries, though) and added 1 catch for 14 yards on the
day. Over the past 3 weeks, he�s racked up 260 yards rushing, and 30 yards
receiving (only those 2 scores from last week, though). Baltimore is ice cold, having lost 3 of their last 4 (a win
over the Bengals is the only bright point recently), and even having Ray Lewis
back on the field wasn�t enough to overcome Ricky Williams and the Dolphins
attack last week. Over the last four games, the Ravens are the 20th
ranked rushing D in the league, allowing 119 yards per game and ranking 29th
in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Baltimore goes into the game without DE Michael McCrary (out
� knee), and probably will be sans Lewis again (calf � doubtful). Tennessee
lists McNair as questionable with his injured toe. Bottom line � Eddie George gets a ton of carries, but he
isn�t making big plays recently. His 3.5 yards per carry over the last three
games illustrates this clearly. However, he has a very good opportunity to do
great things this week. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Carolina�s
Lamar Smith vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup) One thing is absolutely true � this Carolina team, starting
Rodney Peete at quarterback is much, much better than the week 7 version which
featured Chris Weinke (and raw rookie Randy Fasani) under center. However,
Peete has lost the services of one of his best targets, Steve Smith (suspended
for a fight in the locker room) in the week leading up to the game, Muhsin
Muhammad is hobbled by a knee problem (probable to play) and Wesley Walls is
recovering from a concussion (probable), so there may be limits to what he can
do to loosen up running lanes for Smith. With only 126 yards rushing, 21 yards
receiving and 1 score in the last two games, Smith could definitely use some
help in finding running room.�� Plus,
Rodney Peete is back to playing like the shaky guy we thought he was. Fortunately for Smith, the Atlanta rush defense has been
pretty ugly � they average 125 yards allowed per game this year (22nd
in the NFL), and are hemorrhaging 144 per game in the last four weeks (28th
in the NFL). During that time frame, the Falcons are the 15th ranked
defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. Atlanta�s defensive front is also depleted � DE Travis Hall
is doubtful with a foot problem, and fellow DE Brady Smith is also doubtful due
to a hip injury. LB�s Jon Thierry (hip � doubtful) and Mark Simoneau (ankle �
questionable) round out the list. At least Carolina�s O line is healthy � but
they just released starting RT Chris Terry for failing to appear at an
arraignment on assault charges. Terry has been a constant on the line since he
was drafted in 1999, but is now unemployed thanks to skipping bail on Tuesday.
Smith is listed as probable to play with his aching shoulder. Look for Smith to have a modestly productive day against the
banged-up Falcon�s front.�� He�s certainly
not flashy but he should be able to have a solid day by his standards. Chicago�s
Anthony Thomas vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup) We dogged him earlier but Anthony Thomas deserves a little
credit � he did manage 4.4 yards per carry against the Rams� defense, and
stretched his string of games with at least one touchdown to 3 � all this
despite losing key lineman Marc Colombo to a blown Patella tendon. He was held
to 61 yards last week, but it wasn�t due to a lack of hard running on Thomas� part.
In his last game against the Lions, week 7 this year, Thomas collected 92 yards
and a score on 26 carries, with 3 catches for 5 yards. The Lion�s rush defense is backsliding recently � they are
the 16th best rush D in the NFL this season, allowing 115 yards per
game, but have averaged 121 over the last four weeks (22nd in the
NFL), and are a pathetic 28th in points allowed to opposing fantasy
backs during that span. Part of Detroit�s recent problems stem from injuries:
starting DE Jared DeVries is out with a foot injury; DT Luther Elliss (ankle
�questionable) and starting DE Robert Porcher (knee � questionable) are both
limited; and starting LB Barrett Green (knee � questionable) is also dinged up.
Besides losing Colombo, the Bears line has C Olin Kreutz listed as probable
with a stomach ailment. Thomas is scoring regularly, and Detroit gives up scores to
opposing backs (plus they have injury problems on the D-line). Advantage,
Chicago. Cleveland�s
William Green / Jamel White vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good Matchup) Give credit where credit is due � William Green finally got
above 3.0 yards per carry on average, for the second time this season (since
week 3), on week 11 � against the Bengals. 25 carries for 96 yards, 0 scores,
with a long run of 16 yards. This was a huge improvement over his last 10
outings. Maybe there is hope for Williams.��
Jamel White remains on the injury report with his bum shoulder
(questionable this week) but he�s not looking too likely right now. New Orleans makes almost any back look good recently � they
are a sub-par rushing D, allowing an average of 121yards per game (19 in the
NFL) for the season. Over the last four weeks, though, they�ve dropped into the
cellar of the NFL, allowing 172 yards per game (31st in the NFL),
and are ranked 23rd in the league in fantasy points allowed to
opposing backs. This week veteran DT Norman Hand is being replaced in the
starting lineup by second-year man Kenny Smith in an attempt to remedy the
recent woes. Besides White�s shoulder problem, the Browns are healthy
heading into the game. The Saints list LB�s Travis Carroll (leg � questionable)
and Darrin Smith (ankle � probable) on the early injury report. Maybe William Green will get above 4.0 yards per carry and
actually score a touchdown against the soft Saints. Anything is possible� Denver�s
Clinton Portis/Mike Anderson vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup) Clinton Portis is tearing up the NFL recently, going over
100 yards in 2 of his last three games (with 3 scores in those 3 games � 0 last
week, though). However, Mike Anderson gets just enough touches to erode Portis�
scoring (last week, Anderson got the rushing touchdown on 4 for 20 work, while
Portis gained 136 yards on 23 carries, with 52 yards receiving in addition, but
no scores). Indy�s rushing D is decent lately, ranking 21st
in the NFL allowing 119 yards per game over the last four weeks, but ranking 1st
in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs (they are 28th
in the NFL allowing 134 yards per game on the season). Denver lists no new injuries this week on their unit, while
the Colts have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive front: DE Raheem Brock (ankle), DT James Cannida (knee), and DT
David Pugh (groin) are all doubtful; DT Josh Williams (foot) is questionable,
and LB Mike Peterson (wrist) is probable. All of the injuries to the Colt�s defensive front tilts the
scales to Denver. Detroit�s
James Stewart vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup) James Stewart has touched the ball 58 times in the last three weeks � 50 rushes for 265 yards, and 8 receptions for 68 yards � so it is fair to say he is a major part of the Detroit offense. The problem is, Detroit isn�t scoring much � and Stewart hasn�t seen the end-zone since week 8. He has been over 100 yards combined in each of his last two games as he�s been quietly running very well. This game is a rematch of a 7 contest, in which Stewart
mauled the Bears for 200 yards total offense (172 yards rushing) and 2
touchdowns. Chicago�s rushing defense is middle-of-the-pack � not much
has changed for the unit since week 7 � they rank 17th this season
allowing 117 yards per game on the ground, and are 10th over the
last four weeks, allowing 101 per contest. During that time frame, the Bears
are the 20th NFL defense in points allowed to opposing fantasy
backs. This week, Chicago goes into the game without DT Ted
Washington (as they have almost the entire season), and may be without the
services of back-up DE Joe Tafoya (hamstring � doubtful). Back-up DT Christian
Peter is probable to play through his leg injury. Detroit hopes that G Tony
Semple can go � he�s probable despite his neck injury. James Stewart should continue to be a focus of the Lion�s
attack � and he has good odds at ending up in the end-zone once or twice
against the Bears, if recent history is any guide. Green
Bay�s Ahman Green vs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Good Matchup) Ahman Green is producing at a very high level in the recent
going � he has 193 yards rushing and 2 scores, with 129 yards receiving and 1
touchdown in the last three games. He was over 100 yards combined in the loss
to Minnesota (71 rushing, 38 receiving) and scored a touchdown, too. Even
though Green Bay lost, Green is on a roll right now. The Buccaneers stuffed Lamar Smith last week (46 yards
rushing, 4 receiving, 0 scores), but were trampled by Minnesota two weeks ago
(Bennett and Williams combined for 157 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns) � over
the past four weeks, they rank 19th in the NFL allowing 115 yards
per game, �(they are 6th this
season allowing 97, so this is a large drop-off in the defense). During that
span, they are the 22nd defense in the league in fantasy points
allowed to opposing running backs. Back-up RB Najeh Davenport is out for the season for the Packers
(eye injury), which makes Green even more central to the team�s attack. G Marco
Rivera is questionable to play with his bum knee this week. Tampa Bay goes into
the game without starting DT Anthony McFarland (forearm), and DE Corey Smith is
listed as doubtful with a knee injury. The Packers bring a much more explosive offense to the game
than the Panthers did � this matchup favors the Green Bay squad. Houston�s
James Allen / Jonathan Wells vs. The New York Giants Defense (Good Matchup) It�s a pretty good matchup but don�t start either of these
guys. Allen�s season: 359 yard rushing, 187 yards receiving, 0 scores. Well�s
season: 367 yards rushing, 67 yards�
receiving, 1 score. That�s through 10 games, folks. Do the math. The Giants are allowing tons of yards lately � 177 yards per
game (32nd in the NFL), but are 11th in terms of fantasy
points allowed to opposing backs over the past four weeks. It won�t matter. Houston�s line is fine (what�s left of it) � no new injuries
to report. New York lists LB Nick Greisen (foot �
questionable); DT Cornelius Griffin (ankle � questionable); LB Quincy Monk
(ankle � questionable); LB Mike Barrow (concussion � probable); DE Kenny Holmes
(knee � probable). Look for the Giants to improve their statistics this week. Still,
if you are so desperate that you have to start a Texans� back then it�s a good
matchup. Miami�s
Ricky Williams vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup) It�s amazing what an effective passing game will do for a
running back. Last week, Ray Lucas finally shook off the rust and threw the
ball pretty well � well enough that Ricky Williams ran for 102 yards and 2
scores (with 5 receptions for 28 yards) against the Ray Lewis-led Ravens D. Not
bad at all. Especially considering Williams had only managed 100 yards rushing
and 0 touchdowns over the previous 2 games. This week the Chargers invade Pro-Player Stadium, and they
are coming in on a high note, having gutted out a tough win against the 49�ers
last week. The 49�ers two-headed monster RBs gained 116 of the team�s 141 yards
(the 49�ers averaged 4.7 yards per carry as a team vs. the Chargers), so the
rushing defense wasn�t particularly good for the Bolts last week. Over the last
four weeks, the Chargers are the 24th ranked rushing D in the
league, allowing 126 yards per game � they are 3rd allowing 93 per
game on the season � so this is a huge drop-off in performance recently. During
that four week span the Chargers are 21st ranked vs. opposing
fantasy backs in points allowed. Miami comes into the game with starting T Mark Dixon still
battling his sore ankle (questionable), but otherwise they are healthy. San
Diego is another story. Starting LB Donnie Edwards was concussed last week
(questionable this week), and reserve LB Carlos Polk was unable to play due to
his bum ankle (questionable). It�s worth noting that Williams is seeing more and more
action on 3rd down, something he wasn�t doing earlier in the year. San Diego is just not handling good backs very well recently
� and Ricky Williams is a great back. Advantage, Miami. Pittsburgh�s
Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue/Kordell Stewart vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good
Matchup) Tommy Maddox is out this week due to his neck injury, so the
Steelers week 12 are a very different club than the team that roasted
Cincinnati 34-7 week 6.� For one thing,
Zereoue has a larger role now, and Bettis� has diminished (Bettis had 109 yards
on 21 carries and 2 scores in the first game). Although Bettis will probably
work his way back to a more featured position.�
Secondly, the inconsistent play of Stewart is back in the passing phase,
at least for this week, and Stewart is vastly more likely to carry the ball
himself on rushing plays than Maddox. It�s doubtful that any one of the three
will be the focus of the rushing attack on Sunday (or, at least, enough of a
focus to produce superior fantasy numbers).�
And one obvious difference is that with Maddox on the
sidelines, the Steelers will surely focus more on the running game. Cincinnati does not defend the rush well at all � they are
31st in the NFL this season, allowing 138 yards per game, and rank
26th over the last four weeks, allowing 130 per contest. During that
four week span, the Bengals are 6th in fantasy points allowed to
opposing backs, however � so they are at least keeping them out of the endzone. Besides Maddox�s injury, starting C Jeff Hartings injured
his knee last week (he�s out), so Pittsburgh�s line may be in flux Sunday, too.
Bettis is listed as probable (knee). Chris Fuamatu-Ma�afala remains very
questionable with his pectoral injury. Cincinnati has no new injuries to it�s
defensive front, but starting DT Oliver Gibson is out for the season with his
torn left Achilles. DE Vaughn Booker is still getting twinges from his aching
knee (probable). It�s a great matchup, and if Bettis or Zereoue were the
clear cut # 1, that�s how we�d have it.�
But the trouble is figuring out who will be gaining the yards.�� Our gut feel now is that Bettis will be the
primary guy but Zereoue will cut into his effectiveness. � Tampa
Bay�s Michael Pittman / Mike Alstott vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup) The futility continues in Tampa � the tandem of Pittman and
Alstott garnered a whole 65 yards and 0 touchdowns on 23 rushing attempts vs.
the Carolina Panthers last week. Alstott only touched the ball 4 times the
whole game, for a grand total of 21 yards combined rushing and receiving.
Pittman got 25 touches, 78 yards, and 0 touchdowns. Neither one seems able to
crack 3.0 yards per carry when he is featured in the attack (Pittman was at 2.7
on his 21 carries last week). Green Bay has really struggled to stop the run this season
(allowing 136 yards per game, 30th in the league), and the problem
has worsened in recent weeks (162 yards allowed over the past four weeks, 29th
in the league). During the most recent four weeks, they are 13th vs.
opposing fantasy backs. Part of the Packer�s woes are due to injury � last week DE
Aaron Kampman, starting in the absence of Vonnie Holliday (knee), was knocked
out of the game with a concussion � and his back-up, Rod Walker, strained a
quadriceps in relief of Kampman and was hobbled most of the game. Starting DE
Cletidus Hunt has knee woes (probable this week) Starting LB Na�il Diggs
injured his knee last week (probable this week). Holliday is questionable to
play this week, Kampman is probable, and Walker does not appear on the injury
report. The Bucs list starting T Kenyatta Walker as probable to play through an
aching knee. The Packers represent a good opportunity for the Buc�s backs
to get it going � but will they?�� San
Francisco�s Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good
Matchup) They are both talented, they are both productive, and they
could/should both be featured backs in most NFL offenses. However, they are a
RBBC in 2002, and neither is producing top-notch numbers because of it. Hearst
is the 26th ranked back on the average points per game list, and
Barlow is 30th. They truly share the load evenly, and it is
impossible to know who will get the touchdowns from week to week. Philadelphia fields the 4th ranked rushing D this
season, allowing only 94 yards per game on average. Over the last four weeks,
they are the 16th ranked defense, allowing 105 yards per game, and
are a dismal 27th in the NFL in points allowed to opposing backs.
Why the drop-off? Injuries. DE Derrick Burgess is out with a foot problem.
DE�s Hugh Douglas has a nagging knee problem (probable), Ndukwe Kalu�s back is
aching (probable), and so is Brandon Whiting�s (back � probable). Starting LB
Carlos Emmons remains hobbled by a hamstring injury (questionable). The Eagles
are extremely banged up on the defensive front. Starting T Derrick Deese is
questionable with an ankle problem, and C Jeremy Newberry is nursing a finger
(probable) for the 49�er�s unit. Hearst and Barlow should continue to succeed against the
limping Eagles although it�s tough to count on either one by themselves being
great contributors. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Atlanta�s
Warrick Dunn/T. J. Duckett/Mike Vick vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup) This game is a rematch of the week 7 tilt (Atlanta blasted
Carolina 30-0 last time), and the Falcons absolutely trampled the Panthers in
that game (187 yards rushing as a team, 2 scores by Duckett, 1 for Vick (who
also led the team in rushing that week with 91 yards)). This time around, Dunn
has been the featured rusher in the weeks leading up to the game. He has been
over 20 touches per game during the last two weeks, and over 100 yards
(combined) of offense during that two week span. But Duckett was injured � so
it�s not clear who will be the �man� against the Panthers. Carolina�s defense is just getting thinner as the season
rolls along � star sacker Julius Peppers is probably going to be suspended for
4 games after this matchup, and DT Sean Gilbert is out with his hip injury,
along with LB Lester Towns (foot). Even so, they currently rank as the 7th best rush
defense in the NFL this season (allowing only 97 yards a game), and have been
stout during the last four weeks, allowing only 78 yards per game on average
and rank 2nd in the league in points allowed to opposing fantasy
backs during that span. Pretty stout, considering starting MLB Dan Morgan has
been sidelined with a groin injury during much of that 4 week time frame. Besides Duckett�s ankle (probable on the injury report this
week), C Roberto Garza is listed as questionable with his foot injury. Carolina
lists Morgan as probable for action.���
Duckett dressed and was available for the game last week, Coach Reeves
just decided to not risk rushing him back since Warrick Dunn was so
effective.�� With regard to styles, I like Dunn�s cutback ability against
this aggressive Carolina defense a little more than Duckett. A very good rushing team against a stout defense = a neutral
matchup. New
England�s Antowain Smith / Kevin Faulk vs. The Minnesota Defense (Neutral
Matchup) Kevin Faulk disappeared last week (0 touches) but Smith
didn�t fare better without Faulk�s competition for the ball � 15 rushes for 49
yards and 3 catches for 15 yards is hard to get excited about. He has only
scored 1 touchdown in three games, so he isn�t generating much at all for
owners in TD or TD + yardage-bonus leagues. � Minnesota�s rushing D is average this season � 10th
in the league allowing 100 yards per game, and 15th over the last
four weeks allowing 104 yards per contest � the Vikings rank 24th in
points allowed to opposing fantasy backs during that period. Injuries aren�t a big deal for the Patriots � G Joe Andruzzi
continues to struggle with his bad knee, and hasn�t finished a game for several
weeks. Minnesota�s LB Henri Crockett is dinged up (hip � probable). A stumbling rushing attack vs. a middle-of-the-road defense
makes this contest a neutral matchup. New York
Giants� Tiki Barber vs. The Houston Defense (Neutral Matchup) Tiki Barber had an off game on a sloppy field during a
blustery November day last week. It was an aberration, not a trend. He�s really
picked up the pace since Fassel assumed play-calling duties � he�s the top
fantasy back over the past three weeks, with 292 yards and 3 scores rushing and
106 yards receiving. Don�t be scared off by his down game � this guy is quality
in the second half of the season. While Ron Dayne is more involved lately, he�s
still just a change of pace and role player, not a major threat to Barber�s
numbers. Houston�s expansion year continues as expected � with a
string of losses. Jacksonville just managed to beat them last week, powered by
122 yards rushing and 1 score from Mack, Taylor and Brunell. Over the season,
they are the 23rd ranked rushing defense, allowing 125 yards per
game; over the past four weeks they are 25th allowing 129 per
contest. They rank as the 7th defense in points allowed to opposing
fantasy backs, though, so TD�s are few and far between against the Texans
recently. New York is probably without starting C Chris Bober (injured
biceps � doubtful), and RB Charles Stackhouse is probable with a tweaked ankle.
Houston has a few minor dings, but nothing that would keep anybody from playing
-- LB Jay Foreman (ankle); LB Keith Mitchell (chest);
and DE Gary Walker (elbow) are all probable. Barber has a shot for a productive day against
the Texans, but touchdowns may be hard to come by. Philadelphia�s
Duce Staley/Dorsey Levens vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup) This week, everything is different in Philadelphia � the
starting QB who made the Eagles the offense they were, Donovan McNabb, is out
with a broken ankle. Koy Detmer, one-time starter during the 1998 season, steps
into the fray � but he�s no Donovan McNabb. Staley and Levens figure to see
more balls due to this change at the helm � but they will also be getting more
attention from the opposing defenders, who will challenge Detmer to beat them
through the air until he proves he can burn them.�� Don�t underestimate the benefit a strong QB like McNabb has on
his RBs. San Francisco plays mediocre rush defense � they are 14th
in the league this season, allowing 111 yards per game, and 14th in
the NFL over the past four weeks, allowing 104 yards per game. The rank 18th
in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Very average, as you can
see. LB Jamie Winborn remains doubtful with his knee injury, and
fellow LB Saleem Rasheed is questionable with a thigh injury. Levens (hand),
Staley (knee) and G Jeff Welbourn (calf/leg) are all probable for the Eagles�
unit. Look for Staley and Levens to batter away at the 49�ers on
Sunday, with occasional success � but don�t expect superstar-level numbers in
Detmer�s first game. Seattle�s
Shaun Alexander vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup) Shaun Alexander is the 27th ranked
fantasy running back over the past three weeks, with 127 yards, 2 scores
rushing and 73 yards receiving. He enters the game off a scintillating 11
rushes for 18 yard performance against the Denver Broncos, and has punished
Arizona for 42 rushing yards (he did score twice in this one, though) and
Washington for 67 yards (0 scores). �Arizona gives up an average of 165 yards per game over the last
four weeks, including Alexander�s stellar performance. Getting the picture?
Alexander underachieves even against the worst defenses in the NFL, and is
routinely stuffed by the better defenses. Kansas City�s rushing D qualifies as a sub-par unit � they
are 18th this season allowing 120 yards per game, and are ranked 23rd
over the last four weeks allowing 124 yards per game. During that span they are
the 19th rushing D in fantasy points allowed to opposing running
backs. Maurice Morris, who was threatening to eat into Alexander�s
carries, is questionable with a hamstring injury this week. K.C. lists DT
Derrick Ransom (foot) and DE Ritchie Owens (groin) as doubtful for the game, so
their depth on the line is probably compromised this week. Too bad for Alexander that the Seahawks can�t run-block well
enough to exploit K.C.�s vulnerability. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Arizona�s
Marcel Shipp / Thomas Jones vs. The Oakland Defense (Tough Matchup) Marcel Shipp is going to get another shot at the top job
this week, and has looked much better than Thomas Jones (except for some
embarrassing fumbles). He ran for 69 yards on 8 carries last week in the loss,
vs. Jones� 9 for 30 performance. The team has lost T Anthony Clement again, he
tore the same triceps tendon in a different place last Sunday. That probably
ends his season (he�s out) and C Mike Gruttadauria (knee � out) is also
unavailable. It�s hard to gain yards without holes to run through. Oakland�s rushing D is getting back on top of the running
game after struggling mightily for a time � they are the 8th ranked
rushing D on the season, allowing only 98 yards per game, and� are 13th in the last four weeks,
allowing 103 per contest. During that time span they are 12th in
fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. Oakland may get DE Regan Upshaw back this week (after ACL
surgery on his right knee in June), which may balance the loss of Tony Bryant
to a neck injury (out). LB Napoleon Harris is questionable with a groin injury.
Besides Clement and Gruttadauria, Arizona lists T John Fina (ankle) and Shipp
(quadriceps � probable). This is a tough game for the Cardinal�s unit.�� Even tougher as you�re not sure how Coach
Dave McGinnis will spread the carries. Baltimore�s
Jamal Lewis vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup) Jamal Lewis is the 16th ranked fantasy back over
the past three weeks, gaining 218 yards rushing, 49 receiving, and scoring
twice in that span. Miami�s Defense contained him last week, limiting him to 47
yards rushing, 26 yards receiving, and 0 scores. Jeff Blake was part of the
problem � he was terrible: 14/28 for only 127 yards, 1 touchdown and 1
interception � so the Ravens had trouble sustaining drives, which limited
Lewis� opportunities. Tennessee�s rushing D is solid � 11th in the NFL
allowing 100 yards per game this season, and 7th over the last four
weeks, allowing only 96. During that span they are 10th in fantasy
points allowed to opposing backs. Baltimore�s O line is fine � Tennessee may be without
starting LB Randall Godfrey (ankle) again this week, and DT Robaire Smith has a
shoulder problem. The Titans will make life tough for Lewis on Sunday. Buffalo�s
Travis Henry vs. The New York Jets� Defense (Tough Matchup) This is a rematch of a week one thriller, but don�t expect a
carbon-copy game week 12. Travis Henry had his finest day as a pro week one,
with 149 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, but he�s cooled off some with no TDs
over the last two weeks, garnering only 179 yards rushing and 50 yards
receiving over that time. The biggest reason that this is going to be a different
game, though, is that the Jets defense has finally remembered how to play
football again.� Actually they�re just
jelling as a defense.� They were awful
to start this year, especially defending the rush, and their season numbers
show it (135 yards per game allowed, 29th in the NFL). However, over
the past four weeks, the D has turned it around, ranking 2nd in the
NFL allowing only 73 yards per game, and they are the 5th in the
league in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs over that time frame. Both teams come into the match-up healthy, so injuries are a
non-factor. The Jets are back in contention in the AFC East, and want to
stay that way � they�ll start by making things tough on Henry.�� He�s one of the better RBs in the game so
we�re not advocating benching him by any stretch � just understand it�s a tough
matchup for Henry. Cincinnati�s
Corey Dillon vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup) This game is a rematch of the week 6 game, and for the
Bengals not much has changed. Kitna is under center, the team is losing, and
Corey Dillon is struggling to get in the end-zone (286 yards rushing, 66 yards
receiving, and 0 scores the past 3 weeks). Although regular readers of the
Random Shots article each week know he comes oh so close to the endzone.� Last time the two teams met, Dillon gained
57 yards rushing, 1 score, and 19 yards receiving. Not world-beating numbers,
to be sure. Pittsburgh�s rushing D has slipped slightly recently, going
from the 5th ranked unit this season (96 yards per game allowed) to
the 12th ranked team over the past four week s (102 yards per game).
However, they don�t give up many points to opposing backs � they are the 8th
ranked defense in fantasy points allowed in this phase. Starting LB James Farrior injured his knee last week, and is
out, and LB Larry Foote is doubtful due to a calf injury. Cincinnati�s C Rich
Braham is probable with a tweaked ankle. I�m one of those guys that feels like players go hard pretty
much all the time but I also wouldn�t be surprised for the Steelers to come out
on fire after the emotional roller coaster involving Tommy Maddox�s injury and
recovery last week. Look for another frustrating, limited day from Dillon week
12 � Pittsburgh has the edge. Dallas�
Emmitt Smith/Troy Hambrick vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Tough Matchup) The passing of the torch got off to a rough start this week
with Hambrick and Smith trading jabs in the media over the split work-load last
week. This week the plan is for Smith to start, and Hambrick to get in the game
on the third series � with the workload split more or less evenly after that
during the game (although if either guy gets his motor running, Campo will probably
stick with the guy doing well). The plan mollified Smith�s pride, but is
essentially exactly what the team wanted to do, anyway. Jacksonville has stiffened vs. the run recently, and ranks 9th
in the NFL over the past four weeks, allowing only 101 yards per game compared
to their season average of 125 yards per game (24th in the league).
During the last four games, the Jags are 14th in fantasy points
allowed to the opposing back. Dallas has problems on their line: G Larry Allen is out with
an ankle injury, and T Javiar Collins joins him on the sidelines with a knee
problem. T Soloman Page has a tweaked knee (probable). LB
T.J. Slaughter (groin), LB Joe Tuipala (elbow), and� LB Eric Westmoreland (hamstring) are all probable to play for the
Jags. The Dallas line has really struggled this
season, and the rookie quarterback Hutchinson doesn�t scare any NFL defenses.
Advantage, Jacksonville. Jacksonville�s
Stacey Mack / Fred Taylor vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup) The situation in Jacksonville is coming to resemble a RBBC
more and more every week. Last week, Taylor and Mack split the load almost
evenly � 13/56 for Taylor, 12/54 and a score for Mack � and it�s definitely the
case that Taylor�s production is dropping steadily � he hasn�t rushed for more
than 100 yards in 4 games, and has only scored once in that span. Meanwhile,
Mack has gone over 50 yards rushing (and 7 carries, minimum) in 3 straight
games, and has scored 1 touchdown in each of the last two games. Dallas� rushing D is bearing down in recent weeks, they are
4th in the NFL allowing only 86 yards per game and rank 3rd
in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during the last four weeks (they
are 13th allowing 105 yards per game on the season. Jacksonville lists T Todd Fordham as probable with an ankle
problem this week. Dallas has a few dings on the defensive front, but nothing
major � DE Ebenezer Ekuban (quadriceps), DT Brandon
Noble (arm), and LB Markus Steele (back) are all listed as probable. Coach Tom Coughlin really cleared things up when he said, "It depends on the plan.� It depends how it works out. Fred's the
starter and Stacey has a very positive role in what we do. He will continue to
be utilized to the best of his ability and we'd like to continue to utilize
both backs for what they can contribute and we'll see how that goes."�� This will be a tough game for Taylor and Mack.�� New
Orleans� Deuce McAllister / James Fenderson / Curtis Keaton vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Tough Matchup) Basically, if McAllister�s ankle will let him play (he�s
questionable on the early injury report), then he�s the man. If it�s too
painful, or at risk of further injury, then Haslett will sit him on the bench
this week. Sounds like a game-time decision to me. Fenderson, an undrafted free
agent in 2001, has carried the ball five times for 26 yards this year. Keaton,
obtained in a trade with the Cincinnati Bengals at the end of the preseason,
has two attempts for zero yards. Now those are what you call �unknowns�. Cleveland�s defense is much better recently vs. the run �
they are ranked 27th in the league this season allowing 132 yards
per game, but are 11th over the last four weeks, allowing only 101
per contest, and rank 4th in the NFL in points allowed to opposing
fantasy backs during that span. The defense lists key DE Kenard Lang (groin � questionable),
DT Alvin McKinley (thumb � questionable) and LB Kevin Bently (hand �
questionable) on the early injury report. Besides McAllister, G LeCharles
Bentley is questionable with his ankle injury. This is a tough week for the Saints to be breaking in a new
backfield.�� Watch this one right up
until gametime.�� � St. Louis�
Marshall Faulk / Lamar Gordon vs. The Washington Defense (Tough Matchup) Lamar Gordon wasn�t great on the ground last week� 16/45
rushing is nothing to write home about.�
But he did catch 4 passes for 52 yards and 1 score, so he had a pretty
productive game against the Bears. One big question again this week about the
Rams is �Will Marshall Faulk play or won�t he?� � the injury report lists Faulk
as questionable, but he�s not practicing so far � it looks shaky for Faulk
owners this week. Another big question is whether or not Kurt Warner will be
effective in the passing game (his wobbly ducks didn�t look too hot in his brief
appearance last week) � keep an eye on his progress this week as well, if you
have Gordon on your team. Washington�s defense has clamped down on the run recently �
they are ranked 6th in the league over the past four weeks, allowing
only 94 yards per game, and are 17th in points allowed to opposing
backs over that span. This is significantly better than their season average of
113 yards allowed per game (15th in the NFL). Tiki Barber and Ron
Dayne managed 93 yards rushing against them last week (0 scores on the ground).
The defenders list DT Daryl Gardener (back � probable) DE
Carl Powell (groin � probable) and LB Kevin Mitchell (knee � probable) this
week � no major concerns here. Besides Faulk, T Orlando Pace has a minor calf
injury (probable). You have to worry about how well Warner has his timing down
with Holt and Bruce.�� Plus, you can�t
discount the fact that Washington�s been a very good defense of late.� Throw in a questionable Faulk, and this
isn�t the best of weeks to be a Rams owner. Advantage, Washington.� The latest on Faulk is that he missed practice again on
Thursday.�� Looks like it could be a
very late decision for him.�� "I think we'll just keep him
out until they make a decision," Martz said. "What's helped him is
staying off this thing and letting it heal. I don't know if we'll have him for
Sunday or not." San
Diego�s LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Miami Defense (Tough Matchup) LaDainian Tomlinson continues to produce at a very high
level � over the past three weeks, he�s put up 268 yards rushing with 2 scores,
and added 94 yards through the air. That makes him the 6th best
fantasy back in that span. Of course, for the season he trails only Priest
Holmes in fantasy production � pretty spiffy for a �sophomore�. No slump here. Miami�s rushing D has been tough the last four weeks � 89
yards per game, ranking 5th in the NFL during that span (2nd
in the NFL, allowing 92 yards per game this season). Opposing backs have found
the end-zone fairly regularly, though � the Dolphins are 16th in
fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs during the past four weeks. The Dolphins list DE David Bowens as questionable due to a
knee injury. The Chargers have problems with their line � it was already thin,
with Corey Raymer on IR � and starting G Bob Hallen suffered a concussion last
week, with back-up Michael Keathley hobbled by a sprained ankle. They are
listed as questionable, as is T Damion McIntosh (ankle). Tomlinson is as talented as they come, but his line is in
jeopardy of running out of competent blockers � and Miami plays good rushing D.
The advantage goes to the home team Dolphins in this game.�� Tomlinson is a guy who starts pretty much
regardless of the matchup, just understand it�s a tough one here. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Indianapolis�
Edgerrin James vs. The Denver Defense (Bad Matchup) Well, he�s sort of back � Edgerrin James put up solid
numbers last week vs. Dallas (24/106 rushing, 4/6 receiving), but didn�t score,
and he left the game in the late going with an ankle injury (questionable on
the early injury report). Back-up Ricky Williams is no longer listed, so he
should be ready to step in if James can�t go. Denver looks like a nightmare to opposing running backs: 1st
in the NFL this season, allowing 68 yards per game. 1st in the NFL
over the last four weeks, allowing a mere 49 yards per game. However, the
Broncos are 25th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing
backs over that four week span � don�t be deceived, though � since Priest Holmes
lit them up for 3 scores, opposing backs have not put up more than one
touchdown on the Broncos, and neither Charlie Garner nor Shaun Alexander scored
on them the past two weeks. The Broncos are brutal in this phase of the game. Besides James� ankle problem, the Colts� will probably miss
OL Waverly Jackson this weekend (elbow/knee � questionable). The Broncos� D is
healthy � DT Chester McGlockton is probable with his elbow injury calming down. This Broncos team is tough to run on almost every game � the
Sunday night match with Indy won�t be any different. Washington�s
Stephen Davis vs. The St. Louis Defense (Bad Matchup) Steve Spurrier loves to shuffle the deck.�� Another week has passed, and there is
another starting quarterback for the Redskins. How is it going to affect Davis?
Well, in Wuerffel�s last start, he lasted for all of 3 passes (1 completion for
11 yards), and left the game with a shoulder injury. After Ramsey led the team
to a win, he was anointed the starter for the season by coach Spurrier � that
lasted 2 whole weeks � but we never saw the offense run with Wuerffel at the
helm in the regular season. Bottom line is � Davis hasn�t scored a touchdown or
gone over 100 yards combined in the past three weeks, while playing with Shane
Matthews. It doesn�t look too good for him on Sunday. St. Louis� defense is playing really well in the rushing
phase of the game lately � over the past four weeks they are the 8th
ranked defense in the NFL, allowing only 98 yards per game (they average 98 yards
per game allowed this season, too, 9th in the NFL). They are 9th
in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs during that
span. G Brenden Stai is questionable with his aching knee this
week for the �Skins. The Rams have no new injuries of note on defense. An offense in turmoil against a stout, hungry Rams unit =
advantage, Rams. |