Rushing Matchups - Playoffs Week 1

Hi Folks,

Heading into the first week of the playoffs here as the NFL starts it�s �Second Season��

Other sites are cutting back on the info they send but we�ll keep providing you the same News and Matchups that we have all season.�� We billed this thing as an August to Super Bowl venture and that�s what we�ll provide.

Here�s how we see the matchups this weekend.�� As always, please refer to the cheatsheets for the final say on where we see a player.�� Just because a great player has a bad matchup doesn�t mean he�s not your starter this weekend.� We just offer the Matchup Analysis here as one more piece of the puzzle as you�re looking at this week�s games.

Let�s jump to it.

Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer

Playoff Matchups � Round 1

Green Bay�s Ahman Green vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great Matchup)

Green and the Packers won the NFC North but came into the playoffs on a sour note � the Jets shellacked them last week, and Green was held in check with only 67 yards rushing and 5 yards receiving with 0 scores in the season finale. He has been fairly quiet at the end of the season, only managing 273 yards rushing and 1 score in the final 3 games of the season, with 8 receptions for 22 yards. Tony Fisher has seen the ball during that span, so he is part of the reason for the low numbers (but he only rushed the ball once last week). When these two teams dueled in week 1, Green had an absolutely monstrous game, rushing 27 times for 155 yards and snagging 6 balls for 42 yards (0 scores) � he�s been successful against the Falcons in 2002.

In week 10 of 2001, Green put up 62 yards rushing on 17 carries, with 37 yards receiving and 0 scores against the Falcons in the only other meeting between the clubs since 2000.

Atlanta�s rushing defense has faded badly at the end of the 2002 season � they average 148 yards per game allowed over the last four weeks (27^th in the NFL) and are ranked 29^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span. Last week, William Green destroyed the Falcons for 178 yards on 27 carries with 2 rushing touchdowns � yikes! Head coach Dan Reeves and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips have to be nervous about facing another strong back to open the playoffs.�

This game is scheduled to start at 8 P.M. in Green Bay � the mercury will dip far down the thermometer by then, to be sure. Current forecasts call for cloudy weather with snow flurries, and a low of 19�F (depending on how blustery it is the temperature could feel like it is well into the negatives including wind chill). The running game is essential in such conditions.

Tony Fisher is probable to play despite his sore neck. Atlanta will be without LB John Holocek, and LB Chris Daft has an aching back, as does DT Edward Jasper (they�re probable to play, though).

Green is a great back, and Atlanta�s rushing defense is playing small lately. The Packers have a big edge in this matchup.

New York Jets� Curtis Martin vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Great Matchup)

Curtis Martin ran wild against the NFC North Champion Packers last week, racking up 83 yards and a score on only 18 carries, and added 4 receptions for 42 yards. He looks like he is peaking just in time for the playoffs, with 316 yards on 65 carries over the last 3 games (1 score), and 9 receptions for 78 yards during that span.

Up until realignment this year, Martin and the Jets played Indianapolis twice a year in an AFC East rivalry � Martin has done very well against the Colts in the past. In week 1 of 2001 he had 20 carries for 79 yards, with 30 yards receiving and 1 score; in week 15 he put up 122 yards rushing on 23 carries, with 47 yards receiving (0 scores); in week 11 of 2000 the numbers were 21/93 yards rushing with 26 yards receiving and 1 score; and in week 14 of 2000 he punished the Colts for 203 yards rushing on 30 carries with 9 yards receiving and a score.

Indianapolis� rushing defense has collapsed in the past four weeks, ranking 16^th in the NFL allowing 116 yards per game, but they rank 30^th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs. Fred Taylor gained 73 yards on 15 carries with one score last week, and Stacey Mack added 6 rushes for 35 more yards. The Jags as a team steamrolled the Colts last week for 154 yards on 33 carries, a 4.7 yards per rush average.

The current forecast calls for rain mixed with snow on Friday, then cloudy and cold conditions on Saturday (high of 33�F), so the field in New York could be sloppy and slippery at game time.

Part of the Colt�s problem defending the run is their injury situation � they list the following defenders as questionable for the game: starting DE Chad Bratzke (leg), DE Brad Scioli (shoulder) LB Sam Sword (ankle), DT Larry Triplett (back) and key LB Marcus Washington (knee). The following defenders are probable to play for the defensive front: key LB Mike Peterson (hand), LB Donnel Thompson (wrist) and DT Josh Williams (knee). The Jets� lone injury is to P Matt Turk (stomach � probable).

Curtis Martin has played well against the Colts in their last four meetings, and this one shouldn�t be any different. A big edge goes to the Jets� rushing attack in this playoff matchup.

Atlanta�s Warrick Dunn/Mike Vick vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

Warrick Dunn carried the ball a ton vs. Cleveland (20 times for 67 yards), but he failed to punch in the ball in 3 tries from very short yardage late in the game � not an image to make fantasy football owners smile. Over the last 3 games of the season, Dunn has been strong, though, with 70 carries for 300 yards and 1 score, along with 14 receptions for 96 yards � he is the main focus of the Falcons rushing attack lately. T.J. Duckett has been ineffective and seldom used in the late going (3 rushes for 9 yards in 2 games). Vick still picks up the yards in chunks when he rushes (6 for 37 against Cleveland), and is a danger to score from anywhere on the field. In week 1, both Vick and Dunn scored on the Packers (9 for 72 and 1 score for Vick; 15 for 69 and 2 scores for Dunn) in a wild one that Green Bay won 37-34 in OT.

In his days with Tampa, Dunn had limited success against the Packers � he didn�t have a 100 yard game or score any TD�s against them in 2000 or 2001 � but he�s in a much more featured role with the Falcons, so don�t read too much into that.

Green Bay played a horrible game to close out the regular season, and allowed Curtis Martin to romp all over the field (18 rushes for 83 yards and 1 score, with 4 receptions for 42 yards). Over the last four weeks of the season, the rushing D has been sub-par, allowing 118 yards per game on average (18^th in the NFL), while ranking 12^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs.

Atlanta has to play without C Roberto Garza (knee � out), while Green Bay�s defensive front enters the game healthy, with no new injuries of note to report.

Dunn and Vick enjoyed a good game against the Packers to start the season, and they should find ample room to roam here at the end of the season, too.

Pittsburgh�s Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue vs. The Cleveland Defense (Good Matchup)

The Steelers are going for a trifecta of wins against the Browns this season � they have defeated the Browns in both of their regular season games this year by a single field goal.

In week 4, neither Bettis nor Zereoue could get anything going � Bettis was 14/24 yards, and Zereoue only put up 4 rushes for 10 yards. In week 9, Zereoue was featured in Bettis� absence and gashed the Browns for 111 yards rushing on 29 carries, with 62 yards receiving on 4 receptions. The difference in the games was that week 4 an ineffective Kordell Stewart was finally benched partway through the game, in favor of Tommy Maddox. Week 9, Maddox was in the lineup from the start, and he challenged the defense enough in the passing phase to open up the running game. Maddox will be under center on Sunday. In the final three weeks of the season, Bettis had 44 rushes for 139 yards and 2 scores in 2 of 3 games (he sat out the season finale), while Zereoue put up 167 yards on 45 carries with 2 scores, and added 62 yards on 12 receptions playing in all three games. They are an effective 1-2 punch. Last week, Zereoue had 104 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving, and 2 scores against the Ravens while Bettis sat out.

Bettis has enjoyed huge games against the Browns during the prior two seasons � he had 163 yards on 29 carries week 9 of 2001, and over 100 yards rushing (105 and 122) with 1 touchdown in each game during 2000. Zereoue has also enjoyed success against them in the recent past � he accumulated 4 rushes for 20 yards and 77 yards receiving during week 9 of 2001.�

Cleveland snuck into the playoffs, but it wasn�t due to their rushing defense, which ranks 24^th in the NFL for the final four weeks of 2002 allowing 134 yards per game. They were the 15^th ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span, and gave up 104 yards on 27 carries to Dunn and Vick last week � although they did get a boost from a 4 down, goal-line stand to preserve last week�s victory in which they stuffed Dunn 3 times.

The conditions in Pittsburgh at game-time will be snowy and cold (~30�F), according to early forecasts. Both teams hail from the frozen AFC North, so they are used to playing in such weather.

Bettis is expected to play despite his knee injury (probable). The Browns list no new injuries of note on their unit.

Cleveland hasn�t shut down any team�s backs of late, and the Steelers are an excellent team when it comes to running the ball. The advantage in this matchup accrues to Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis� Edgerrin James/James Mungro vs. The New York Jets Defense (Good Matchup)

This past Monday, Edgerrin James told Indianapolis area press that he felt as close to 100% healthy as he has all year � good news for the Colts, who need a strong rushing game to complement Manning and Harrison�s aerial assault. Over the past three weeks leading up to the playoffs, James hasn�t done a whole lot � 35/141 yards rushing, with 10 catches for 55 yards receiving (0 scores).�� Although it has to be noted his week 17 numbers were solid and seem to back up his talk.� Mungro has seen the end-zone 3 times on 33/115 yards worth of work rushing (3/12 receiving), so if James isn�t as healthy as he claims, the Colts have a workable alternative. James was 15/86 against Jacksonville last week, so he�s running well right now. Mungro scored, but managed only 19 yards on 11 carries � not scintillating numbers for him last week, to be sure.

Historically, Indianapolis was an AFC East rival of the Jets (prior to realignment), and James has had mixed success against the Jets � in week 1 of 2001, he rushed 28 times for 135 yards (13 yards receiving) with 2 scores; he was injured week 15 and did not play; in week 14 of 2000 James managed only 11/49 yards rushing with 31 yards receiving (0 scores); and in week 11 of 2000 James put up 31/131 yards rushing with 24 yards receiving and 1 score.

Over the four weeks leading up to the playoffs, the Jets were the 14^th ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 107 yards per game on the ground, and were the 17^th defense in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs � pretty mediocre. They contained Ahman Green in the season finale, holding him to 67 yards on 14 attempts (0 scores) with 3 catches for 5 yards, and limited the Packers to 114 yards on 27 rushes on the day.

The current forecast calls for rain mixed with snow on Friday, then cloudy and cold conditions on Saturday (high of 33�F), so the field in New York could be sloppy and slippery at game time.

New York lists no players other than their punter on the injury report. The Colts say that FB Jim Finn is questionable to play due to an ankle injury, as is backup RB Ricky Williams (ankle). Reserve RB Detron Smith is probable to go despite a hamstring injury.

James and Mungro will find opportunities to make good things happen on Saturday against the middle of the road Jets� defenders.

New York Giant�s Tiki Barber vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tiki Barber tore apart the mighty Eagles defense last Saturday � anytime you are handed the ball 32 times and gain 203 yards rushing (with 8 catches for 73 more yards!), you have humiliated the opposition. However, he put the ball on the turf 3 times, in crucial situations, and almost cost the Giants the game (and their spot in the playoffs) � almost. Still, you have to say that Barber is red-hot � he has amassed 344 yards rushing with 3 scores in the last 3 games of the season (with 13 receptions for 129 yards) � he was the 2^nd best fantasy back in the league during that 3 game span. In week 1, Barber had a poor game (15 rushes for 29 yards with 1 score), but the Giants have gotten a lot stronger since the early part of 2002.

The teams did not play each other in 2000 or 2001, so recent history gives us no help in evaluating this particular matchup.

San Francisco�s defense has been up and down this season. Last week, they blew a 20-3 fourth quarter lead and lost to the lowly Rams 31-20 in the season finale. Over the past four weeks, they are the 7^th best rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 89 yards per game on average, and are 16^th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span.

Pleasant weather is forecast for the game � partly sunny skies with a high of 61�F, and a low of 48�F � perfect football weather.

The Giants� unit is healthy and ready to rock. San Francisco has two LB�s on the injury report � Jamie Winborn (knee � doubtful), Saleem Rasheed (thigh � questionable), and one DE (Sean Moran, Achilles � probable).�

Barber and the Giants are on a tear � but the 49�ers won�t be a push over on Sunday.

San Francisco�s Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow vs. The New York Giants Defense (Tough Matchup)

Hearst and Barlow just keep on ripping up the opposition � last week; Barlow led the team with 87 yards rushing on 10 carries, while Hearst added 67 yards on 19 carries, with 16 yards receiving. On any given Sunday, either one is likely to find the end-zone as well, though they didn�t manage it last week. Hearst has 156 yards rushing on 42 carries (31 yards receiving on 6 receptions) and 1 score over the last 3 games of the season, while Barlow has totaled 161 yards rushing on 29 carries in that span. Quite a 1-2 punch, aren�t they? In week 1, the tandem had 20 carries for 73 yards against the Giants (12/40 for Hearst, 8/33 for Barlow) and 5 receptions for 44 yards and 1 score (3/34 for Barlow and 2/10 with 1 TD for Hearst). It was a modestly successful outing.

The teams did not play each other in 2000 or 2001, so recent history gives us no help in evaluating this particular matchup.

The Giants throttled the Eagles� attack last week (23 rushes for 65 yards and 1 score as a team), and stuffed Duce Staley (17/28 on the afternoon). Over the final four weeks of the season, they are the 6^th ranked rushing D in the NFL, allowing only 88 yards per game, and were 3^rd in the league in fantasy points allowed during that span �very stout rush defense, indeed.

Pleasant weather is forecast for the game � partly sunny skies with a high of 61�F, and a low of 48�F � perfect football weather.

49�ers T Derrick Deese continues to struggle with a sore ankle (probable), as does G Ron Stone (questionable), whereas the Giants list no new injuries of note on the defensive front.

Hearst and Barlow form as reliable a tandem as you will find anywhere, but the Giants will pose a formidable challenge to them on Sunday.

Cleveland�s William Green/Jamel White vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup)

William Green has turned on the after-burners of late, and he has shown the nation why Butch Davis kept feeding him the ball despite his early-season ineptitude. He has 303 yards and 3 touchdowns on 69 carries in the last three games, with 7 receptions for 35 yards, which makes him the 7^th best fantasy back over the final 3 weeks of 2002. Jamel White has returned to his change-of-pace role, and is doing good things with 8 carries for 32 yards and 1 score and 11 receptions for 138 yards in the last three games. Green absolutely dismantled the Falcons last week, with 178 yards and 2 scores on only 27 carries (6.6 yards per carry average), so he enters the playoffs red hot.

Early in the season, Green was pathetic against the Steelers (week 4 7/16 yards rushing; week 9 4/10 yards rushing), but that is water under the bridge at this point. He has come on strong since then. White ripped the Steelers for 105 yards rushing and 1 score on 16 carries in week (3/14 receiving), but was stuffed for 19 yards on 6 attempts week 9 (3/18 receiving). Neither player has an extensive history against the Steelers prior to the 2002 season (Greens a rookie, of course) � White did score a touchdown on 11/30 work with 22 yards receiving in week 17 of 2001.�

Pittsburgh has been absolutely brutal to opposing backs in the final weeks of the 2002 season. They are allowing only 69 yards rushing per game (2^nd in the NFL during that span), and they keep opposing backs out of the end-zone, too � the Steelers are 4^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that same 4 week span. The Ravens did manage 114 yards and 1 score in the season finale (a score-fest in which the final was Pittsburgh 34, Baltimore 31).

The conditions in Pittsburgh at game-time will be snowy and cold (~30�F), according to early forecasts. Both teams hail from the frozen AFC North, so they are used to playing in such weather.

Pittsburgh�s linchpin LB Kendrell Bell is questionable to play due to a bad ankle, and starting LB James Farrior is probable to go despite his aching shoulder. The Brown�s unit is healthy and lists no injuries of note.

In Heinz field against the hard-nosed Steelers, the Green/White tandem are hot but they will likely have a hard time finding room to roam.