Rushing Matchups - Playoffs Week 2

Hi Folks,

Here�s how we see the matchups this weekend.�� As always, please refer to the cheatsheets for the final say on where we see a player.�� Just because a great player has a bad matchup doesn�t mean he�s not your starter this weekend.� We just offer the Matchup Analysis here as one more piece of the puzzle as you�re looking at this week�s games.

Let�s jump to it.

Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer

Playoff Matchups � Round 2

Philadelphia�s Duce Staley vs. The Atlanta Defense (Good Matchup)

Duce Staley and the Eagles ended the regular season on a sour note � Staley only managed 28 yards rushing on 17 attempts in the regular season finale vs. the Giants (3 receptions for 39 yards). He had scored 3 touchdowns in the previous two games, and had amassed 100 yards combined in the week 15 effort vs. Washington, so the Giants game was atypical of Staley�s late-season performance. Dorsey Levens and Brian Westbrook are solid change of pace options for the Eagles as well.

Staley and the Eagles haven�t played Atlanta since week 5 of the 2000 season, so history isn�t much of a guide for what may happen in January of 2003. Both teams have changed significantly in the intervening years.

Atlanta closed out the regular season as the 27^th ranked rushing defense over the final four weeks, allowing 148 yards per game and ranking 29^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that time frame. Last week, however, they really mauled the Packers� backs in Lambeau field, allowing only 57 yards rushing and 0 scores to the Green/Fisher tandem.

The Eagles unit is healthy and good to go � Atlanta�s defensive front may be down DT Ellis Johnson (ankle � doubtful), but otherwise they are ready to play.

The weather in Philly will be cold � the game starts at 8 pm, and the low for the day is forecast to be 18�F. No precipitation is forecast for the days leading up to the game, so the turf shouldn�t be too slippery.

Staley and the Eagles have a lot of weapons to attack the Falcons with, and they haven�t been strong against the run until last week. Look for Staley and company to have a productive outing.

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Atlanta�s Rushing Game vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

Atlanta�s Warrick Dunn, Michael Vick and T.J. Duckett ripped up the Packers last week, generating 173 yards rushing and 1 score between the three of them (64 yards each for Dunn and Vick, 45 yards and a score for Duckett). Dunn also had 4 receptions for 40 yards, putting him over 100 yards combined on the day. Dunn had 2 games over 140 yards combined in the last 3 contests of the regular season, and is the �go-to� guy in the running game, with Duckett in the change-of-pace role. Vick is a threat to explode anytime the defense gives him a seam.

Dunn and Duckett haven�t been Falcons for a whole season, and Vick wasn�t on the team in week 5 of the 2000 season � the last time these two teams hooked up � so history isn�t much of a guide for what may happen in January of 2003. Both teams have changed significantly in the intervening years.

The Eagles were allowing quite a bit of rushing yardage in the final 4 weeks the season, 135 yards per game on average (22^nd in the NFL), but were keeping opposing backs out of the end-zone on a regular basis � they were 8^th in the league in fantasy points allowed to backs during that four week span. Tiki Barber ripped the Eagles for 203 yards rushing and 73 yards receiving week 17 � the Eagles are vulnerable to dual-threat backs like Dunn.

Atlanta�s C Roberto Garza is questionable to play due to a bad knee, while starting G Travis Claridge is probable to play in spite of a nasty concussion suffered in the Green Bay game. Philadelphia�s DE Derrick Burgess is doubtful to play through his broken foot.

The Eagles aren�t defending the rush well at all in the past weeks, and Dunn, Duckett and Vick are as dangerous a tandem as you can find in the NFL. Look for Atlanta to have a productive day running the ball.

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San Francisco�s Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)

Hearst and Barlow weren�t much of a factor in the game vs. the Giants last week (6 rushes for 15 yards for Hearst, 4/12 and a score for Barlow). The 49�ers relied on their passing game to close the wide gap the team faced at midway through the 3^rd quarter, so neither guy got many chances last week. On any given Sunday during the regular season, the tandem was a dangerous combination, usually rushing for more than 100 yards in aggregate, and scoring 1-2 touchdowns a game.

The teams haven�t played since before the 2000 season, so recent history isn�t any help in evaluating this matchup.

Tampa Bay is difficult to run the ball on (over the final four weeks of the season they allowed only 98 yards per game on average, 10^th in the NFL) and even harder to score on (the Bucs were the 2^nd best defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during the final 4 weeks of the season). Chicago managed 85 yards and 0 scores on 22 carries in the season finale.

Tampa�s defense is healthy. The 49�ers have a couple of dinged up linemen � T Derrick Deese (ankle) and G Ron Stone (ankle) are both probable to start and play on Sunday.

Perfect football weather is forecast for Sunday � 58�F for a high, 47�F for a low, with a slight chance for rain � so weather shouldn�t be an issue in this contest.

Anytime you play the Buccaneers, it is a challenge to move the ball. They will form a strong bulwark against Hearst and Barlow this week, as usual.

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Tampa Bay�s Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Pittman had 21 rushes for 90 yards and 2 receptions for 28 yards in the week 17 game vs. Chicago, his finest game rushing the ball all season. Mike Alstott finished the season cold, with 12 rushes for 42 yards and 1 catch for 4 yards � he hasn�t been close to 100 yards rushing since week 14 vs. the Falcons (95 yards on 13 carries that day). Taken as a whole, the two form a very mediocre rushing attack, and have been underachieving all season long.

The teams haven�t played since before the 2000 season, so recent history isn�t any help in evaluating this matchup.

San Francisco closed out the regular season playing pretty good rushing D � they were the 7^th ranked defense allowing only 89 yards per game on average over the final four games, but were 16^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span � the other team saw the end-zone fairly regularly. Tiki Barber rushed 26 times for 115 yards and 1 score against them in the wild-card round � the 49�ers didn�t play well on defense against the Giants, in general.

LB Saleem Rasheed (thigh) is probable to play for the 49�ers, and Tampa reports no injuries among their offensive linemen or backs. Injuries aren�t a factor for these two units.

Perfect football weather is forecast for Sunday � 58�F for a high, 47�F for a low, with a slight chance for rain � so weather shouldn�t be an issue in this contest.

A mediocre rushing attack against a fair-to-middling rush defense looks like a fairly even matchup from where we sit.

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Pittsburgh�s Rushing Game vs. The Tennessee Defense (Bad Matchup)

Jerome Bettis was not 100% last week, and only carried the ball once for -2 yards in the squeaker over Cleveland. In what amounted to his absence, Amos Zereoue made the most of limited opportunities (13 carries for 73 yards), and Chris Fuamatu-Ma�afala scored the game winner in the course of his 2 carries for 4 yards, and also added 2 receptions for 20 yards. The plan this week is for the team to employ all three backs against the Titans� defensive array.

In week 11 of 2002, the Steelers had a hard time getting anything going against the Titan�s defenders, with 15 carries for 45 yards and 0 scores as a team (Zereoue led the way with 9 totes for 16 yards that day). Bettis� best game against the Titans in the recent past came in week 7 of 2001, when he managed to score twice on 19 carries for 62 yards � but none of the Steelers� backs has ever really dominated a game vs. Tennessee since the beginning of 2000.

Over the last four weeks of the regular season this year, Tennessee was the #1 rushing defense in the league, allowing only 63 rushing yards per game, and ranked 1^st in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs � it�s not hard to see why the Steelers don�t have much luck on the ground against them, is it?

Pittsburgh lists starting G Kendall Simmons as probable to play despite his bad shoulder, while Tennessee lists to DE Jevon Kearse (foot � questionable), DT Robaire Smith (knee/shoulder � questionable) and DT John Thornton (ankle � questionable).

The weather for the game Saturday is supposed to be sunny and cold (high of 40�F, low of 22�F), with no precipitation in the days leading up to the contest � field conditions at game-time should be decent.

Tennessee has a top-notch rushing defense, and the Steelers just don�t do very well rushing the ball against them. The advantage goes to the home team Titans.

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Tennessee�s Eddie George vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Tough Matchup)

Eddie George finished the season strong, with 292 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns in his final three games. His yards-per-carry average for the 2002 season is unimpressive (343 rushes for 1165 yards, a 3.4 yards-per-carry average), but the Titans feed him the ball around 20-25 times a game regardless � and he has come on in the late going (4.1 and 4.2 yards per carry in his final 2 games).

In the teams� game this season, George punched in the ball for 2 scores while rushing 28 times for 79 yards. He didn�t do much against the Steelers in 2001 � his best game was week 11, 15 rushes for 58 yards with 2 receptions for 16 yards. In 2000 he almost got 100 yards rushing vs. the Steelers in week 10 (34 rushes for 98 yards). All in all, George produces mediocre results against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh�s rushing defense was second only to Tennessee�s in the final four weeks of the season, allowing only 69 yards per game on average and ranked 4^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span. Last week they man-handled Cleveland�s rising star William Green, who managed 30 yards rushing on 25 attempts with one score. The Browns had negative yards rushing at half-time in that game, and finished with 38 yards rushing as a team � of course, they got 429 yards passing, so Pittsburgh is vulnerable � but not in the rushing phase of the game.

One concern for the Steelers is key LB Kendrell Bell�s status for the game � he aggravated his sprained ankle for the fourth time this season vs. Cleveland, and is questionable to play vs. the Titans (he made a ton of plays last week on Green before he was forced from the game in the fourth quarter due to the injury). DE Kimo Von Oelhoffen (calf � probable) is also listed. T Brad Hopkins (knee � questionable) and G Zach Piller (calf � questionable) should be able to play for the Titans after the extra week of rest.

Top rushing defenses � like the Steelers� � have limited George on several occasions this season. It shouldn�t be any different on Saturday � the Steelers have the edge in this phase of the game.

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New York Jets� Curtis Martin/LaMont Jordan vs. The Oakland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Curtis Martin finished the regular season on a roll, going over 100 yards combined in each of his final three games (over 100 yards rushing twice), and he put the ball in the end-zone once in that span. Last week the Jets only needed his services for 30 minutes during the laugher over Indianapolis (15 rushes for 67 yards), and back-up LaMont Jordan piled it on in the second half with 20 rushes for 102 yards and 2 scores. Quite a 1-2 punch the Jets are packing during the playoffs, wouldn�t you say.

In week 13 of this season, Martin and company had trouble moving the ball against the Raiders (11/26 yards rushing, 2/11 receiving for Martin; 1/0 and 3/24 for Jordan). In the wild-card game in 2001, Martin was much more successful (16/106 yards rushing, with 6 catches for 34 yards � Jordan had 4/22 and 1/9), and in week 17 of 2001 Martin managed 50 yards rushing on 16 carries (3 receptions for 8 yards) while Jordan ripped off a huge run of 46 yards and a score on his single carry of the game.

Oakland�s rushing defense had its ups and downs this season, but ended the season on an �up� note � they were 3^rd in the NFL over the final four weeks of the season allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground, but ranked a mediocre 13^th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span.�

The Jets list only P Matt Turk on the injury report. The Raiders list DE Trace Armstrong as questionable with a groin injury.

Very temperate weather is forecast for Sunday � 58�F for a high, 47�F for a low with a chance of rain � so conditions should be good unless it rains a ton after kickoff.

Martin and Jordan are on a roll, and their line is blocking really well of late. The Raiders are tough to run on, though � it�s an even matchup between two top-performing units on Sunday.

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Oakland�s Charlie Garner and Company vs. The New York Jets� Defense (Good Matchup)

Charlie Garner led the Raiders with 182 carries for 962 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground, and was the teams� second receiver (by 1 reception) behind Jerry Rice with 91 catches for 941 yards and 4 touchdowns. I guess you could say he is a focus of their offense. In two of the last three games of the season he went over 100 yards of offense combined, and scored 2 touchdowns during that span. Oakland as a team humiliated the Chiefs week 17, grinding out 280 yards rushing with 2 scores on 60 carries � Garner had 29 carries for 135 yards and a score; Zack Crockett (40/118 and 8 scores this year) carried 11 times for 72 yards and a score; and Tyrone Wheatley (the team�s second-leading rusher this season with 108 carries for 419 yards and 2 scores) carried 17 times for 69 yards. Oakland can definitely get it done on the ground.

In the game vs. New York this season, week 13, Garner had 12 carries for 52 yards and 9 receptions for 60 yards; Wheatley carried 6 times for 15 yards, and Crockett plunged in a score on 2 carries for 3 yards. In 2001 Garner also enjoyed steady success against the Jets, punishing them for 158 yards and 1 score on only 15 carries in the 2001 wildcard game (3/27 catching the ball). In week 17 he had 19 rushes for 84 yards and 5 catches for 31 yards.

The Jets� rushing defense has been middle of the road for much of 2002, and ended the season allowing 107 yards per game on average over the final four contests (14^th in the NFL). They ranked as the 17^th defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs during that span � very average. Last week in the wildcard game vs. Indianapolis they crushed the Colts� attack, allowing only 52 yards and 0 scores � the defenders are playing strong right now.

The Jets� defense is healthy, while the Raiders T Lincoln Kennedy is listed as questionable with a groin injury. RB Tyrone Wheatley is gimpy with a bad ankle (questionable).

Very temperate weather is forecast for Sunday � 58�F for a high, 47�F for a low with a chance of rain � so conditions should be good unless it rains a ton after kickoff.

Garner and his compatriots have ripped up the Jets every time they played them in the recent past � there is nothing to indicate they can�t do it again on Sunday.

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