Chris Russell - Stop Chasing Your Tail

Don't get me wrong. Running backs are the lifeblood of any competitive team in fantasy football. Without a set of two or three quality backs, you are in for a season of spending countless hours trying to find one on the waiver wire. I can't tell you the number of teams that end up starting Larry Centers every year when their #1 or #2 back is lost to injury. But at the same time, the turnover at the top is so dramatic that mortgaging your future to acquire the top player at the most important position in football can be devastating to your championship hopes.

Look back at the top finisher in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002.

In 1998, the top RB to finish the season was Terrell Davis. Finishing almost 50 points behind was Jamal Anderson, and 80 points behind was Marshall Faulk. TD was the consensus #1 overall pick in the draft in 1999.

If you made a fair trade of Marshall Faulk (#3 in 1998) and for fun, say Marvin Harrison (who finished 31st in 1998 in WR points) to acquire Davis. You would have been kicking yourself on October 3rd when Davis tore his right anterior cruciate ligament, partially tearing his medial collateral ligament and sustaining cartilage damage vs. the Jets. We all know what happened to Davis in 2000, 2001 and 2002. Faulk finished 1999 second in RBs to Edgerrin James and Harrison finished as the top WR in the NFL.

But what if you had gone after Jamal Anderson instead? In 1999, it probably would have taken only Eddie George (finished #11 in 1998) and perhaps Dorsey Levens (finished #51 in 1998) to acquire Jamal. We all know what happened to Jamal and his pair of ACLs. Eddie finished 1999 as the #3 RB and Dorsey finished as the #6 RB. (A guy in my league traded Eddie George and his #1 pick to acquire Jamal).

So you say you learned your lesson. So for the 2000 season, you decide to just go after a "safe" top 10 back instead. You decide to give up on injury prone RBs with potential. So you trade Fred Taylor and a high draft pick for Dorsey Levens. Dorsey did finish 1999 as the #6 RB in the league…right?

We all know what happened in 2000 to Dorsey. Ahman Green replaced him that season and finished the 2000 season as the #5 RB in Fantasy Football. Last we heard is that Dorsey is trying to unseat Ron Dayne as the #2 back for the Giants (he might need a forklift!). And what about Fred Taylor? Well Fraud bounced back in 2000 and took over the #6 spot vacated by Levens.

Still didn't learn your lesson? Try it again in 2001. So this time you attempt to reacquire Fred Taylor. Oops, he splits his groin in half (hurts just tying it) and misses most of the season.

Or maybe you just try hedging your bets. You are currently the lucky owner of Marshall Faulk, the #1 RB in football and you just don't want to risk your season on one RB. So you trade Marshall for Edgerrin James and Jamal Lewis (who finished 2000 as the #2 and #16 RB in Fantasy Football respectively). That makes sense right? It did make sense until Jamal tears his ACL in training camp and Edgerrin follows suit doing the same against the Kansas City Chiefs six games in. Marshall once again finishes as the #1 back in Fantasy Football and eclipses his numbers from the year before.

(Another guy in my league traded two first round picks, #1 and #2 overall, for Edgerrin alone).

What about last year?

The 2002 season was actually pretty favorable to RBs. Three players finished the season with over 300 points; there were no notable ACL tears to the star players and the sky's the limit for several other players. But today there is an issue with Priest Holmes and his contract/hip issues. Do you trade for Priest? His ranking has slipped substantially over this debate presenting possible value. He did finish 2002 almost 50 points over second place finisher Ricky Williams (who had a career year of his own) and was far and away the top back in football.

I guess the morale of this story is that if you have valuable players who produce but are not the super star you wish they were, then maybe you should just stick with what you have. There will always be trades that work out, but there is nothing worse than watching one of your players blow up on another teams roster.

Don't be afraid to trade, but don't sell the farm!

Unfortunately I speak from experience this year after watching Ricky Williams, Deuce McAllister and Jamal Lewis EXPLODE on other teams rosters! And who did I get in exchange for those players? Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James and Ahman Green…all of who were ranked in the preseason significantly HIGHER and all of who performed significantly LOWER!!!

Good Luck!!!