The Next Faulk?
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Posted 8/13 by Chris Russell - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Taking a look at Ahman Green. Many are writing him off already
but
they may be wrong to do so as "Batman" glides under the radar.
Statistics courtesy of NFL.com
Ahman Green took the nickname "Batman" after falling in love with
the 1989 movie and for wearing the caped crusader's logo shaved into the back
of his head for over two years.
After failing to live up to the high expectations of 2002, Ahman Green has
fallen from graces with many fantasy football owners. Most invested anywhere
between the 2nd and 5th overall pick in fantasy drafts last year to select Green,
only to see several other running backs leapfrog their super hero in statistics
and points. So many other RBs exceeded expectations that most owners probably
didn't realize that Ahman's total yards and touchdowns in 2002 were actually
in line with his career averages. That is pretty remarkable considering he missed
two games against the lowly Lions.
Green's fantasy owners constantly lament over the fact that he doesn't score
enough touchdowns, as the Packers tend to strongly rely on Brett Favre's arm
near the goal line. Now there is talk that Green may lose carries to Najeh Davenport,
which only further adds to the rumors of his demise.
While these points have some merit, before relegating Ahman to the shadows
of the "Bat Cave," take a look at some interesting statistics that
compare Green with another notable back at the same point in their career: Marshall
Faulk
Unlike most top running backs, Ahman didn't exactly make a big splash upon his
NFL arrival in 1998. He wallowed in Seattle under Mike Holmgren for two seasons
spending much of his time in the head coach's doghouse for his penchant for
fumbling. He was so underutilized, that Green tallied only 61 carries in two
years, or less than 2 carries per game. Green was traded to the Green Bay Packers
before the 2000 season with little fanfare to serve as a backup to Dorsey Levens.
Marshall on the other hand started his career in much finer fashion. Faulk
was the top selection of the Indianapolis Colts in 1994 and was immediately
sent to the front lines. Faulk had two outstanding rookie and sophomore campaigns,
scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in both '94 and '95.
But if you look at Marshall Faulk's next three seasons and compare them to
Ahman Green's first three years in Green Bay, you will see some interesting
similarities which may be a prognostication of things to come in Ahman's career.
Rushing Statistics (Top Performer Highlighted in Blue)
Year
|
Team |
GP
|
GS
|
Att
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
Lg
|
TDs
|
1996
|
Indianapolis |
13
|
13
|
198
|
587
|
3.0
|
43
|
7
|
1997
|
Indianapolis |
16
|
16
|
264
|
1054
|
4.0
|
45
|
7
|
1998
|
Indianapolis |
16
|
15
|
324
|
1319
|
4.1
|
68t
|
6
|
Marshall Faulk
|
45
|
44
|
786
|
2960
|
3.7
|
68t
|
20
|
2000
|
Green Bay |
16
|
11
|
263
|
1175
|
4.5
|
39t
|
10
|
2001
|
Green Bay |
16
|
16
|
304
|
1387
|
4.6
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83t
|
9
|
2002
|
Green Bay |
14
|
14
|
286
|
1240
|
4.3
|
43
|
7
|
Ahman Green
|
46
|
41
|
853
|
3802
|
4.5
|
83t
|
26
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In every rushing metric Ahman Green exceeds Marshall Faulk. Ahman played in
one more game over this span of three years, but three of those games he played
coming off the bench in relief of Dorsey Levens. Marshall had a horrible year
in 1996 by any measure, but he still managed to start and play in 13 games.
It was his uncharacteristic 3.0 yards per carry that hurt his overall yardage
numbers. Despite his yardage totals, Marshall's 7 touchdowns were much in line
with his '97 and '98 season totals. In comparison, Ahman Green averaged an excellent
4.5 yards per carry over the same span of his career and scored 6 more touchdowns
than Faulk.
Receiving Statistics (Top Performer Highlighted in Blue)
Year
|
Team |
GP
|
GS
|
Rec
|
Yds
|
Avg
|
TDs
|
1996
|
Indianapolis |
13
|
13
|
56
|
428
|
7.6
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0
|
1997
|
Indianapolis |
16
|
16
|
47
|
471
|
10.0
|
1
|
1998
|
Indianapolis |
16
|
15
|
86
|
908
|
10.6
|
4
|
Marshall Faulk
|
45
|
44
|
189
|
1807
|
9.4
|
5
|
2000
|
Green Bay |
16
|
11
|
73
|
559
|
7.7
|
3
|
2001
|
Green Bay |
16
|
16
|
62
|
594
|
9.6
|
2
|
2002
|
Green Bay |
14
|
14
|
57
|
393
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6.9
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2
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Ahman Green
|
46
|
41
|
192
|
1546
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8.1
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7
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And when comparing receiving statistics between Faulk and Green,
the biggest number that jumps out is a rather small one. Faulk averaged 1.3
more yards per reception but that allowed him to finish with over 250 more yards
than Green (who actually had 3 more receptions). However, Green may have been
able to capitalize on those extra receptions as he caught two more touchdowns
than Faulk.
But let's look at today. In 2003, Ahman Green enters his 6th NFL season. Ahman
has played at, and much of the time above, the level of Marshall Faulk during
the same period in their careers. Green is only 26 years old and has nearly
half as many carries or 981 less than Faulk did entering his 6th season. So
Green's mileage should not be a concern to fantasy owners.
Marshall Faulk had 2429 total yards and 12 total touchdowns at the end of the
1999 season, his 6th in the NFL. Marshall followed in his 7th season with 2189
total yards and a phenomenal 26 total touchdowns!
While the compared statistics above and Marshall's future success are by no
means any guarantee of future success for Green, it would be wise to not let
"Batman" go unnoticed this season
and certainly don't write him
off. You may be throwing away the next Marshall Faulk.
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