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The Next Faulk?


Taking a look at Ahman Green. Many are writing him off already…but they may be wrong to do so as "Batman" glides under the radar.

Statistics courtesy of NFL.com

Ahman Green took the nickname "Batman" after falling in love with the 1989 movie and for wearing the caped crusader's logo shaved into the back of his head for over two years.

After failing to live up to the high expectations of 2002, Ahman Green has fallen from graces with many fantasy football owners. Most invested anywhere between the 2nd and 5th overall pick in fantasy drafts last year to select Green, only to see several other running backs leapfrog their super hero in statistics and points. So many other RBs exceeded expectations that most owners probably didn't realize that Ahman's total yards and touchdowns in 2002 were actually in line with his career averages. That is pretty remarkable considering he missed two games against the lowly Lions.

Green's fantasy owners constantly lament over the fact that he doesn't score enough touchdowns, as the Packers tend to strongly rely on Brett Favre's arm near the goal line. Now there is talk that Green may lose carries to Najeh Davenport, which only further adds to the rumors of his demise.

While these points have some merit, before relegating Ahman to the shadows of the "Bat Cave," take a look at some interesting statistics that compare Green with another notable back at the same point in their career: Marshall Faulk

Unlike most top running backs, Ahman didn't exactly make a big splash upon his NFL arrival in 1998. He wallowed in Seattle under Mike Holmgren for two seasons spending much of his time in the head coach's doghouse for his penchant for fumbling. He was so underutilized, that Green tallied only 61 carries in two years, or less than 2 carries per game. Green was traded to the Green Bay Packers before the 2000 season with little fanfare to serve as a backup to Dorsey Levens.

Marshall on the other hand started his career in much finer fashion. Faulk was the top selection of the Indianapolis Colts in 1994 and was immediately sent to the front lines. Faulk had two outstanding rookie and sophomore campaigns, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in both '94 and '95.

But if you look at Marshall Faulk's next three seasons and compare them to Ahman Green's first three years in Green Bay, you will see some interesting similarities which may be a prognostication of things to come in Ahman's career.

Rushing Statistics (Top Performer Highlighted in Blue)

Year
Team
GP
GS
Att
Yds
Avg
Lg
TDs
1996
Indianapolis
13
13
198
587
3.0
43
7
1997
Indianapolis
16
16
264
1054
4.0
45
7
1998
Indianapolis
16
15
324
1319
4.1
68t
6
Marshall Faulk
45
44
786
2960
3.7
68t
20
2000
Green Bay
16
11
263
1175
4.5
39t
10
2001
Green Bay
16
16
304
1387
4.6
83t
9
2002
Green Bay
14
14
286
1240
4.3
43
7
Ahman Green
46
41
853
3802
4.5
83t
26

In every rushing metric Ahman Green exceeds Marshall Faulk. Ahman played in one more game over this span of three years, but three of those games he played coming off the bench in relief of Dorsey Levens. Marshall had a horrible year in 1996 by any measure, but he still managed to start and play in 13 games. It was his uncharacteristic 3.0 yards per carry that hurt his overall yardage numbers. Despite his yardage totals, Marshall's 7 touchdowns were much in line with his '97 and '98 season totals. In comparison, Ahman Green averaged an excellent 4.5 yards per carry over the same span of his career and scored 6 more touchdowns than Faulk.

Receiving Statistics (Top Performer Highlighted in Blue)

Year
Team
GP
GS
Rec
Yds
Avg
TDs
1996
Indianapolis
13
13
56
428
7.6
0
1997
Indianapolis
16
16
47
471
10.0
1
1998
Indianapolis
16
15
86
908
10.6
4
Marshall Faulk
45
44
189
1807
9.4
5
2000
Green Bay
16
11
73
559
7.7
3
2001
Green Bay
16
16
62
594
9.6
2
2002
Green Bay
14
14
57
393
6.9
2
Ahman Green
46
41
192
1546
8.1
7

And when comparing receiving statistics between Faulk and Green, the biggest number that jumps out is a rather small one. Faulk averaged 1.3 more yards per reception but that allowed him to finish with over 250 more yards than Green (who actually had 3 more receptions). However, Green may have been able to capitalize on those extra receptions as he caught two more touchdowns than Faulk.

But let's look at today. In 2003, Ahman Green enters his 6th NFL season. Ahman has played at, and much of the time above, the level of Marshall Faulk during the same period in their careers. Green is only 26 years old and has nearly half as many carries or 981 less than Faulk did entering his 6th season. So Green's mileage should not be a concern to fantasy owners.

Marshall Faulk had 2429 total yards and 12 total touchdowns at the end of the 1999 season, his 6th in the NFL. Marshall followed in his 7th season with 2189 total yards and a phenomenal 26 total touchdowns!

While the compared statistics above and Marshall's future success are by no means any guarantee of future success for Green, it would be wise to not let "Batman" go unnoticed this season…and certainly don't write him off. You may be throwing away the next Marshall Faulk.

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