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Where's the Upside?

Every year there are running backs and wide receivers with household names who slip very far in drafts simply because we don't want to be the one who takes him the year he no longer produces. They are also the players who are good, but not great. They are the non-sexy pick. Theses are the players who are on the wrong side of 30 and we think there is no way they can keep up production in the NFL. We know they probably won't get better. There is little chance of them ever becoming that stud first round pick. So we keep passing them over until someone else drafts them and they are forgotten. That is until the season gets underway and once again they are producing and are that valuable bye week/injury RB or #2 or #3 WR.

Instead we will draft unproven rookies and players with the dreaded "upside." They are that talented but unproductive player who never lives up to his hype, but maybe this will be his year. More often then not, they end up on the waiver wire during the first half of the season and you are left scrambling for the depth you passed on in the draft. It is like trying to hit a home run every time you get to the plate. You might hit a few out of the park, but more often than not you will be sitting on the bench because you couldn't move the runner over or hit a sac fly when the team needed it.

Granted, you never know when a player will no longer be able to produce in the NFL, but remember experience and consistency is often underrated. We here at Footballguys.com obviously love statistics and trends. While a player's production may tail off later in their career, the decline is generally gradual. That player may not be the stud you remember 5 years ago, but he is still a productive member of your squad. However, it is much more difficult to predict an unknown such as the potential of a young player. Taking a risk on someone who has yet to produce at a high level, or had a few good weeks late last season over a proven veteran is risky business.

You should always take a chance on the young guys…especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. But you should be sure to balance them with the proven veterans who will be there for you during injuries. These veterans don't usually get benched or demoted because they can't pass block. They've paid their dues and their coaches believe in them. They have the intangibles that the rookies and young players are still looking for.

Remember not to let these guys slip simply because they are no longer featured in this year's fantasy magazine or are not being interview on ESPN. They are not all in the same tiers but are often undervalued relative to their production. They are already at their proper value if you use VBD, just don't pass them over for the wrong reasons.

Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Eddie George
Rod Smith
Curtis Martin
Jerry Rice
James Stewart
Curtis Conway
Warrick Dunn
Isaac Bruce
Emmitt Smith
Marty Booker
Mike Alstott
Jimmy Smith
Jerome Bettis
Derrick Mason
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