Where's the Upside?
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Posted 8/26 by Chris Russell - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Every year there are running backs and wide receivers with household names
who slip very far in drafts simply because we don't want to be the one who takes
him the year he no longer produces. They are also the players who are good,
but not great. They are the non-sexy pick. Theses are the players who are on
the wrong side of 30 and we think there is no way they can keep up production
in the NFL. We know they probably won't get better. There is little chance of
them ever becoming that stud first round pick. So we keep passing them over
until someone else drafts them and they are forgotten. That is until the season
gets underway and once again they are producing and are that valuable bye week/injury
RB or #2 or #3 WR.
Instead we will draft unproven rookies and players with the dreaded "upside."
They are that talented but unproductive player who never lives up to his hype,
but maybe this will be his year. More often then not, they end up on the waiver
wire during the first half of the season and you are left scrambling for the
depth you passed on in the draft. It is like trying to hit a home run every
time you get to the plate. You might hit a few out of the park, but more often
than not you will be sitting on the bench because you couldn't move the runner
over or hit a sac fly when the team needed it.
Granted, you never know when a player will no longer be able to produce in
the NFL, but remember experience and consistency is often underrated. We here
at Footballguys.com obviously love statistics and trends. While a player's production
may tail off later in their career, the decline is generally gradual. That player
may not be the stud you remember 5 years ago, but he is still a productive member
of your squad. However, it is much more difficult to predict an unknown such
as the potential of a young player. Taking a risk on someone who has yet to
produce at a high level, or had a few good weeks late last season over a proven
veteran is risky business.
You should always take a chance on the young guys
especially in keeper/dynasty
leagues. But you should be sure to balance them with the proven veterans who
will be there for you during injuries. These veterans don't usually get benched
or demoted because they can't pass block. They've paid their dues and their
coaches believe in them. They have the intangibles that the rookies and young
players are still looking for.
Remember not to let these guys slip simply because they are no longer featured
in this year's fantasy magazine or are not being interview on ESPN. They are
not all in the same tiers but are often undervalued relative to their production.
They are already at their proper value if you use VBD, just don't pass them
over for the wrong reasons.
Running Backs
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Wide Receivers
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Eddie George
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Rod Smith
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Curtis Martin
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Jerry Rice
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James Stewart
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Curtis Conway
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Warrick Dunn
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Isaac Bruce
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Emmitt Smith
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Marty Booker
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Mike Alstott
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Jimmy Smith
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Jerome Bettis
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Derrick Mason
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